A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from SinceYaz. Show SinceYaz's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to garyhow's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Interesting article on de la Rosa...

    "Last year I never got that feeling like I could throw the ball 100-percent. But now I can do it. I feel comfortable. "

    The full read:

    http://news.soxprospects.com/2014/01/finally-healthy-de-la-rosa-eyeing-big.html




    I had read it. Hopefully working w/ Pedro will also help. But also good to hear in noticeably better shape. Getting close to that make or break yr for him, otherwise other young arms will move by.

     



    Agree here.  Pedro is re-habbing his Red Sox pedigree, which I think he hurt a bit by leaving, saying he was being disrepected (Echo in Cano's camp this year - as if the NYYs weren't willing to sell 7 very costly years for him ...).  Pedro seems to have a high upside for Rubby.  If we learned one thing last season, a postive approach from your coach and manager can help bring about great responses.  Nieves was super upbeat during ST about Lester, Lackey, Doubie and others - and the reward was terrific.

    I am ready for that moment or two (hopefully not more) when our starters get hurt or tired and Rubby and several other young guns step in (ala 2013).  It is actually exciting to consider their toeing the rubber for the big squad.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Agree here.  Pedro is re-habbing his Red Sox pedigree, which I think he hurt a bit by leaving, saying he was being disrepected (Echo in Cano's camp this year - as if the NYYs weren't willing to sell 7 very costly years for him ...).  Pedro seems to have a high upside for Rubby.  If we learned one thing last season, a postive approach from your coach and manager can help bring about great responses.  Nieves was super upbeat during ST about Lester, Lackey, Doubie and others - and the reward was terrific.

    I am ready for that moment or two (hopefully not more) when our starters get hurt or tired and Rubby and several other young guns step in (ala 2013).  It is actually exciting to consider their toeing the rubber for the big squad.

    There are quite a few options for that 7th starter role. If Dempster is traded, everyone moves up a notch.

    Workman

    Britton

    Webster

    de la Rosa

    Barnes

    Ranaudo

    Wright

    Hinojosa

    Ely

    Owens (Maybe by midseason)

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    While I agree to win a WS things must break right and last yr everything did break right for RS including the injury bug which seemed to haunt RS past few yrs. Even injuries we did have seemed to work out for the better [Hanrahan & Bailey otherwise Koji remains in setup role] But when looking at RS pickups not so sure there was much surprise other than they stayed mostly healthy.

    Naps- gave us pretty much what we expected. Maybe better D than expected.

    Dempster- pitched a ton of innings. Something he has done his whole career.

    Vic- proved that 2012 was just a bad yr and was still young enough to bounce back, while providing GG defense which he has always done.

    Koji- probably the biggest surprise of the group, while always posting outstanding #'s don't think many could have expected him to do it as closer

    Gomes- came as advertised. Probably didn't do as well as expected vs LH's but more than made up for it w/ his clubhouse presence.ssed

    Good points.

    On Gomes, he really missed expectations significantly vs LHPs last year:

    '09-'12 vs LHPs: .906 OPS (8th best OF OPS vs LHPs in MLB)

    2013 vs LHPs:    .795 OPS

     

    We did have one significant injury that we overcame by having strong seasons from Lackey and Lester: Clay Buchholz. We also lost Miller for much of the year, but Breslow was lights out second half last year.

    We had lots of stretches with key players injured, but certainly we did way better with injuries in 2013 than the previous few years.

    Papi missed the start of the year, but was a horse once he returned.

    Victorino missed time here and there, but Nava did well.

    Ellsbury missed time.

    Drew missed time.

    Middy battled an injury.

    Pedey played hurt.

    Ross missed about half the season.

    While injuries to Hanrahan and Bailey may have been a "blessing in disguise", the loss of Miller and Morales could have been more harmful if it wasn't for uehara, Tazawa, Breslow, Workman, and Britton.



    IMO 13 RS injuries are probably the norm for 162 games, not like some yr in past where it seemed we lost 4/5 ths of the rotation, or Pedey / Youk / or Ells were pretty much lost for the yr. Our hardest hit area was the pen, but Ben did a great job of providing lots of depth, and Britton and Workman were big 2nd half. For me its all about the starters if you can keep the rotation healthy and productive they will keep you in the race, position players can go down and team can stay in race. Cards won WS yr after Pujols left, but if Wainright or Carpenter had left would almost gaurantee they would not have been celebrating. Also look at Yank injuries last yr but stayed in race most of yr because rotation was healthy. Its all about the pitching! Thats why I never endorse trading it. I know most have made great points that RS should move someone, but these things seem to always work themselves out. Also can remember last yr at this time when many said we would need to trade bullpen arms because we had a surplus, we barely made it with what we had. Never ever too much PITCHING!

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    IMO 13 RS injuries are probably the norm for 162 games, not like some yr in past where it seemed we lost 4/5 ths of the rotation, or Pedey / Youk / or Ells were pretty much lost for the yr. Our hardest hit area was the pen, but Ben did a great job of providing lots of depth, and Britton and Workman were big 2nd half. For me its all about the starters if you can keep the rotation healthy and productive they will keep you in the race, position players can go down and team can stay in race. Cards won WS yr after Pujols left, but if Wainright or Carpenter had left would almost gaurantee they would not have been celebrating. Also look at Yank injuries last yr but stayed in race most of yr because rotation was healthy. Its all about the pitching! Thats why I never endorse trading it. I know most have made great points that RS should move someone, but these things seem to always work themselves out. Also can remember last yr at this time when many said we would need to trade bullpen arms because we had a surplus, we barely made it with what we had. Never ever too much PITCHING!

    Normally, I agree, but I have a lot of confidence in 

    Workman

    Britton

    Webster

    de la Rosa

    Barnes

    Ranaudo

    Wright

    Hinojosa

    Ely

    Owens (Maybe by midseason)

    ...so, I do not think trading Dempster to clear up flexible salary space to fill a void that arises this year, which may include finding a SP, if none of these guys listed work out will hurt us.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Injuries are certainly something that can derail any championship run, but the well built teams position themselves to be able to strongly compete even with a major injury or two. Look at what the Cards have done so many times.

    We have a lot of solid depth, and quite a bit of flexibility, even though we have a near FT DH only on the 25 man roster.

    C: Pierzynski, Ross, Lava, Butler, Vazquez 

    1B: Napoli, Carp, Nava, Middy, Papi (in NL parks), Snyder

    2B: Pedroia, Herrera, Holt (Betts?)

    3B: Middy, Bogey, Herrera, Holt, Snyder

    SS: Bogey, Herrera, Holy, Marrero

    LF: Nava, Gomes, Carp, Sizemore, Cousins, Hassan, Brentz

    CF: JBJ, Sizemore, Victorino, Cousins

    RF: Victorino, Sizemore, Cousins, Brentz, Hassan

    DH: Ortiz, Gomes, Carp, Middy, Nava

    SP: Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Peavy, Doubront, Dempster, Workman, Britton, Webster, Wright, Hinojosa, Ely, Ranaudo, Barnes

    RP: Uehara, Mujica, Tazawa, Breslow, Miller, Badenhop, (see SP'ers), Wilson and more

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    This from MLBTR...

     

    • The Blue Jays are "in the mix" for shortstop Stephen Drew, presumably viewing him as a second base option. Nevertheless, the Red Sox remain the favorites to land him, as they prefer to play Xander Bogaerts at third and appear willing to give Drew multiple years. Boston could dangle an opt-out clause of some kind to sweeten things for Drew, Heyman adds. There was a competing report last night on the Yankees' interest, but Heyman says that the club "seem[s] more interested in Drew than ever" after landingMasahiro Tanaka.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    IMO 13 RS injuries are probably the norm for 162 games, not like some yr in past where it seemed we lost 4/5 ths of the rotation, or Pedey / Youk / or Ells were pretty much lost for the yr. Our hardest hit area was the pen, but Ben did a great job of providing lots of depth, and Britton and Workman were big 2nd half. For me its all about the starters if you can keep the rotation healthy and productive they will keep you in the race, position players can go down and team can stay in race. Cards won WS yr after Pujols left, but if Wainright or Carpenter had left would almost gaurantee they would not have been celebrating. Also look at Yank injuries last yr but stayed in race most of yr because rotation was healthy. Its all about the pitching! Thats why I never endorse trading it. I know most have made great points that RS should move someone, but these things seem to always work themselves out. Also can remember last yr at this time when many said we would need to trade bullpen arms because we had a surplus, we barely made it with what we had. Never ever too much PITCHING!

    Normally, I agree, but I have a lot of confidence in 

    Workman

    Britton

    Webster

    de la Rosa

    Barnes

    Ranaudo

    Wright

    Hinojosa

    Ely

    Owens (Maybe by midseason)

    ...so, I do not think trading Dempster to clear up flexible salary space to fill a void that arises this year, which may include finding a SP, if none of these guys listed work out will hurt us.



    Have to admit slowly coming on board because I find it hard to believe with all that young talent that if 2 starters were to go down [not unrealistic when you have Buch / Peavy in rotation] that at least one of these guys would be able to step up and fill the void. Workman pretty much proved that last yr. IMO I would wait to see what kind of shape Doubie shows up to camp and is Buch really ready to go for 2014. Hopefully other teams will suffer ST / or early season injury or young prospect fails terribly and there will be a market if all our guys our ready and pitching well at start of yr. Having guys start yr in AAA not a bad thing, buys us some service time with some. But can remember these same lists last year w/ the pen, and by end of yr we were looking for RH relief help [Thanks be to Workman] and needed to trade for Thorton. Its funny how these so called surplusses can turn into a need in such a small period of time. Pitching wins!

    Excited Pitchers and Catchers coming soon!

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    IMO 13 RS injuries are probably the norm for 162 games, not like some yr in past where it seemed we lost 4/5 ths of the rotation, or Pedey / Youk / or Ells were pretty much lost for the yr. Our hardest hit area was the pen, but Ben did a great job of providing lots of depth, and Britton and Workman were big 2nd half. For me its all about the starters if you can keep the rotation healthy and productive they will keep you in the race, position players can go down and team can stay in race. Cards won WS yr after Pujols left, but if Wainright or Carpenter had left would almost gaurantee they would not have been celebrating. Also look at Yank injuries last yr but stayed in race most of yr because rotation was healthy. Its all about the pitching! Thats why I never endorse trading it. I know most have made great points that RS should move someone, but these things seem to always work themselves out. Also can remember last yr at this time when many said we would need to trade bullpen arms because we had a surplus, we barely made it with what we had. Never ever too much PITCHING!

    Normally, I agree, but I have a lot of confidence in 

    Workman

    Britton

    Webster

    de la Rosa

    Barnes

    Ranaudo

    Wright

    Hinojosa

    Ely

    Owens (Maybe by midseason)

    ...so, I do not think trading Dempster to clear up flexible salary space to fill a void that arises this year, which may include finding a SP, if none of these guys listed work out will hurt us.

    [/QUOTE]

    Have to admit slowly coming on board because I find it hard to believe with all that young talent that if 2 starters were to go down [not unrealistic when you have Buch / Peavy in rotation] that at least one of these guys would be able to step up and fill the void. Workman pretty much proved that last yr. IMO I would wait to see what kind of shape Doubie shows up to camp and is Buch really ready to go for 2014. Hopefully other teams will suffer ST / or early season injury or young prospect fails terribly and there will be a market if all our guys our ready and pitching well at start of yr. Having guys start yr in AAA not a bad thing, buys us some service time with some. But can remember these same lists last year w/ the pen, and by end of yr we were looking for RH relief help [Thanks be to Workman] and needed to trade for Thorton. Its funny how these so called surplusses can turn into a need in such a small period of time. Pitching wins!

    Excited Pitchers and Catchers coming soon!

     Right now, this is how Soxprospects.com has our staff depth chart:

    SP

    Lester

    Buch

    Lackey

    Peavy

    Dempster

    Doubront

    Webster (see swing man list below)

    Wright

    Ely

    Ranaudo

    Barnes

    Owens

    Pena

    Hinojosa

     

    Swing Men (spot starters)

    de la Rosa

    Britton

    Workman

    Couch

    Hernandez

    Kehrt

     

    Relievers (see swing man list above)

    Uehara

    Tazawa

    Breslow

    Mujica

    Miller

    Badenhop

    Wilson

    Villareal

    Layne

    Watanabe

    Valdez

    Mijares

    N Ramirez

    Celestino

    Balcom-Miller

    Kurcz

     

    That's pretty deep all around, but you never know what can happen in a season. I still think we can afford to trade Dempster and barely notice he is gone. We should have enough in-house solutions to solve any issue that arises. The biggest problem might be having to go through 4-5 of these guys to finally find one that does well. By then, we may be 8 out and the hole to deep to get out of.

    Last year we used 26 pitchers, including 18 with over 20 IP, but we only used 12 pitchers for over 40 IP: Lester, Lackey, Dempster, Doubront, Buchholz, Uehara, Tazawa, Breslow, Miller, Bailey, Peavy and Workman. Only Bailey from this list did not finish the season on the 25 man roster.

    Workman played a big role for us last year, but so many other pitchers got a chance before him: Webster, Wright, Aceves, Mortensen, Morales, Wilson, Hanrahan, Bard, de la Torre, Beato, and probably others. 

    Yes, there may be multiple injuries this year, but there are few other factors to take into account:

    1) Uehara will start the year as our closer. That's good, but his workload will have to be managed well to avoid burnout or injury. He probably should not repeat his 74 IP of 2013.

    2) Buchholz could go from 16 to 32 starts.

    3) Peavy could go from 10 to 32 starts. That's 38 more starts total that we did not have in 2013.

    4) Doubront could go from 162 IP to 190+, but he needs to improve on his control/ pitch count.

    5) Miller missed a lot of time last year. He could go from 31 IP to 50ish.

    6) Workman and Britton had 63 IP in 2013, but started in AAA. They could go from 63 to 163 easily.

    7) Wright, Ely and Hinojosa are question marks, but if one is doing well in AAA, they could help.

    8) The pitching prospects are one year older and closer to joining the big club: Webster, de la Rosa, Ranaudo, Barnes, Owens and/or Pena could all get a chance to start.

    9) The pen could be bolstered by some from the list above or Wilson, Ramirez, Layne, Villareal, Mijares, Watanabe, and/or Valdez.

    10) We should have a better staff supporting catching group this year with a healthy Ross and Pierzynski replacing Salty. There may be a learning curve, but overall, it could be a significant help to this year's staff. (Plus, this is the second year under new coaching/managing, so expectations are known, and comfort with the routine should be improved.)

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Suk-min Yoon In Talks With Two Clubs, May Sign Soon By  Jeff Todd [January 29 at 12:40pm CST]

    WEDNESDAY: The Twins aren't inclined to meet agent Scott Boras' asking price at this time,tweets Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN.

    TUESDAY, 10:05pm: Yoon has yet to meet with Twins officials and has not visited Minnesota, reports Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press (Twitter links). That does not mean that the club is out on Yoon, says Berardino, who was told by a source that the Twins are "monitor[ing]" things at present.

    5:16pm: South Korean hurler Suk-min Yoon is engaged in talks and could sign soon, according to a Naver Sports article (Korean language link, via a tweet from Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net). The 27-year-old righty has reportedly fielded four offers from MLB clubs, and is in discussions with two of the offering teams.

    Yoon landed at 36th on MLBTR's Tim Dierkes's list of the top fifty free agents. Though he is said to offer substantially less upside than fellow Korean Hyun-jin Ryu of the Dodgers, Yoon is said to be the next-best arm to come out of the KBO. As Dierkes explained in his profile of Yoon, the hurler has experience both as a starter and as a reliever. 

    The most recent reports indicated that the Red Sox and Twins both have interest in Yoon, who is not controlled by any KBO club and is therefore a free agent. While Yoon's value remains difficult to assess, Dierkes gave his best guess as a two-year, $10MM deal.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Yoon has what looks like shoulder problems. I think he will be extremely lucky to got $10 mil over 2 years. He was great in 2011 but has been trending down since.

    Who knows what his real health status is? The Redsox look at everyone but they may well pass on this one.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Yoon has what looks like shoulder problems. I think he will be extremely lucky to got $10 mil over 2 years. He was great in 2011 but has been trending down since.

    Who knows what his real health status is? The Redsox look at everyone but they may well pass on this one.



    My guess it, the Sox don't sign him unless they have a very good idea on his health status.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I know you can never have too much pitching, but this seems like overkill to me, especially at those numbers. Minor-league free agent money maybe but two years, $10mil, no way.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Yoon has a history of shoulder problems.  I do not even know why Boston is spending a minute of their time talking to Boras and Yoon. 

    I cannot even picture Boras' pitch to the Red Sox.

    Boras: "My client, Mr. Yoon is um,........let's see here..........."

    LOL

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    IMO 13 RS injuries are probably the norm for 162 games, not like some yr in past where it seemed we lost 4/5 ths of the rotation, or Pedey / Youk / or Ells were pretty much lost for the yr. Our hardest hit area was the pen, but Ben did a great job of providing lots of depth, and Britton and Workman were big 2nd half. For me its all about the starters if you can keep the rotation healthy and productive they will keep you in the race, position players can go down and team can stay in race. Cards won WS yr after Pujols left, but if Wainright or Carpenter had left would almost gaurantee they would not have been celebrating. Also look at Yank injuries last yr but stayed in race most of yr because rotation was healthy. Its all about the pitching! Thats why I never endorse trading it. I know most have made great points that RS should move someone, but these things seem to always work themselves out. Also can remember last yr at this time when many said we would need to trade bullpen arms because we had a surplus, we barely made it with what we had. Never ever too much PITCHING!

    Normally, I agree, but I have a lot of confidence in 

    Workman

    Britton

    Webster

    de la Rosa

    Barnes

    Ranaudo

    Wright

    Hinojosa

    Ely

    Owens (Maybe by midseason)

    ...so, I do not think trading Dempster to clear up flexible salary space to fill a void that arises this year, which may include finding a SP, if none of these guys listed work out will hurt us.



    Have to admit slowly coming on board because I find it hard to believe with all that young talent that if 2 starters were to go down [not unrealistic when you have Buch / Peavy in rotation] that at least one of these guys would be able to step up and fill the void. Workman pretty much proved that last yr. IMO I would wait to see what kind of shape Doubie shows up to camp and is Buch really ready to go for 2014. Hopefully other teams will suffer ST / or early season injury or young prospect fails terribly and there will be a market if all our guys our ready and pitching well at start of yr. Having guys start yr in AAA not a bad thing, buys us some service time with some. But can remember these same lists last year w/ the pen, and by end of yr we were looking for RH relief help [Thanks be to Workman] and needed to trade for Thorton. Its funny how these so called surplusses can turn into a need in such a small period of time. Pitching wins!

    Excited Pitchers and Catchers coming soon!

     Right now, this is how Soxprospects.com has our staff depth chart:

    SP

    Lester

    Buch

    Lackey

    Peavy

    Dempster

    Doubront

    Webster (see swing man list below)

    Wright

    Ely

    Ranaudo

    Barnes

    Owens

    Pena

    Hinojosa

     

    Swing Men (spot starters)

    de la Rosa

    Britton

    Workman

    Couch

    Hernandez

    Kehrt

     

    Relievers (see swing man list above)

    Uehara

    Tazawa

    Breslow

    Mujica

    Miller

    Badenhop

    Wilson

    Villareal

    Layne

    Watanabe

    Valdez

    Mijares

    N Ramirez

    Celestino

    Balcom-Miller

    Kurcz

     

    That's pretty deep all around, but you never know what can happen in a season. I still think we can afford to trade Dempster and barely notice he is gone. We should have enough in-house solutions to solve any issue that arises. The biggest problem might be having to go through 4-5 of these guys to finally find one that does well. By then, we may be 8 out and the hole to deep to get out of.

    IMO might make more sense to trade Peavy. Dempster could more easily move to bullpen role due to previous expierence. Think Peavy has more value to other teams and of the 2 and is more likely to breakdown?

    Last year we used 26 pitchers, including 18 with over 20 IP, but we only used 12 pitchers for over 40 IP: Lester, Lackey, Dempster, Doubront, Buchholz, Uehara, Tazawa, Breslow, Miller, Bailey, Peavy and Workman. Only Bailey from this list did not finish the season on the 25 man roster.

    Health to pitching staff has been a key to all 3 of our last WS winning staffs. Last year good health to the starters, lots of depth in the pen and a brilliant job by Koji. This year we could suffer an injury or 2 and would not surprise me if we did not miss a beat.

    Workman played a big role for us last year, but so many other pitchers got a chance before him: Webster, Wright, Aceves, Mortensen, Morales, Wilson, Hanrahan, Bard, de la Torre, Beato, and probably others. 

    Yes, there may be multiple injuries this year, but there are few other factors to take into account:

    1) Uehara will start the year as our closer. That's good, but his workload will have to be managed well to avoid burnout or injury. He probably should not repeat his 74 IP of 2013.

    Think the Mujica signing really helps here, and the way Miller was pitching when he went down probably could have filled in that role as well.

    2) Buchholz could go from 16 to 32 starts.

    Would love to see it but til it happens not so sure. I would like to see him just show up healthy for ST. He's a big key for us, he stays healthy for entire year he probably finishes top 5 in CY voting.

    3) Peavy could go from 10 to 32 starts. That's 38 more starts total that we did not have in 2013.

    This one I definately don't see happening. Think RS would be smart to manage his starts and give some of the young guns a chance at times. Think Peavy's yrs of 30 starts are  behind him. Make up an injury give him a couple of weeks off a couple times in season to keep him strong.

    4) Doubront could go from 162 IP to 190+, but he needs to improve on his control/ pitch count.

    This I could see happening. Really could see Doubie making the biggest jump of all the starters this year. Really believe with his stuff if he's physically ready he could become a solid #3. Think what he accomplished in the WS will only help him.

    5) Miller missed a lot of time last year. He could go from 31 IP to 50ish.

    Another guy who really seems to be just coming into his own and could dominate late in games. RS have the makings of an unbelievable BP.

    6) Workman and Britton had 63 IP in 2013, but started in AAA. They could go from 63 to 163 easily.

    I really like what Workman did for RS last yr. Believe better suited to be a starter, but on RS no place to go. But think he should get 1st opportunity if someone goes down. Britton wouldn't surprise me if he starts yr as starter in Pawtucket to get built back up. Tough being a pitcher on RS team these days. Both these guys belong on MLB roster unfortunately not going to happen due to options and depth of staff.

    7) Wright, Ely and Hinojosa are question marks, but if one is doing well in AAA, they could help.

    8) The pitching prospects are one year older and closer to joining the big club: Webster, de la Rosa, Ranaudo, Barnes, Owens and/or Pena could all get a chance to start.

    After Workman see the order being [depending on how they're pitching in minors] Webster- De la Rosa- Raunado- Wright- Hinojosa w/ Barnes/ Owens a possibility if throwing well late in the year.

    9) The pen could be bolstered by some from the list above or Wilson, Ramirez, Layne, Villareal, Mijares, Watanabe, and/or Valdez.

    One thing I have togive Ben a lot of credit is the depth he has assembled for the entire roster, but most importantly the pitching staff. Even with all the young up and comers, signing a guy like Mujica is a very wise move.

    10) We should have a better staff supporting catching group this year with a healthy Ross and Pierzynski replacing Salty. There may be a learning curve, but overall, it could be a significant help to this year's staff. (Plus, this is the second year under new coaching/managing, so expectations are known, and comfort with the routine should be improved.)

    This scares me a little. Two late 30's catchers could come back to haunt us. I know AJ has a terrific track record for staying on the field. But at some point this could catch up to him. But Butler and hopefully Vasquez could be ready early if one went down. I have no faith in Lavarnway as a catcher and think RS should do him a favor and give him a chance elsewhere.




     

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I would have no hesitation using Vasquez if one of our catchers went down. His bat may struggle but his arm and glove are ML ready.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    That's pretty deep all around, but you never know what can happen in a season. I still think we can afford to trade Dempster and barely notice he is gone. We should have enough in-house solutions to solve any issue that arises. The biggest problem might be having to go through 4-5 of these guys to finally find one that does well. By then, we may be 8 out and the hole to deep to get out of.

    IMO might make more sense to trade Peavy. Dempster could more easily move to bullpen role due to previous expierence. Think Peavy has more value to other teams and of the 2 and is more likely to breakdown?

    Certainly Peavy would bring back a better return, and I agree that Dempster could transition to the pen much easier than Peavy, but I don't see paying a long/middle relief pitcher $13M. I'd rather just trade both.

     

    Last year we used 26 pitchers, including 18 with over 20 IP, but we only used 12 pitchers for over 40 IP: Lester, Lackey, Dempster, Doubront, Buchholz, Uehara, Tazawa, Breslow, Miller, Bailey, Peavy and Workman. Only Bailey from this list did not finish the season on the 25 man roster.

    Health to pitching staff has been a key to all 3 of our last WS winning staffs. Last year good health to the starters, lots of depth in the pen and a brilliant job by Koji. This year we could suffer an injury or 2 and would not surprise me if we did not miss a beat.

    You really can see a strong corelation between WS rings and the lack of injuries to the starting rotation.

    2003- 139 GS from out original top 5 starters (+10 Suppan, 5  Kim & 5 Mendoza)

    2004- 157 GS from out original top 5 starters ... WOW!

    2005- 138 GS from out original top 5 starters (+16 by W Miller)

    2006- 114 GS from out original top 5 starters (+ 10 Snyder, 8 D Wells, 6 Tav, DiNardo & Johnsn)

    2007- 128 GS from out original top 5 starters (+ Tavarez & 7 Gabbard)

    2008- 126 GS from out original top 5 starters (+15 Buch, 9 Mastrsn, & 8 Byrd)

    2009- 108 GS from out original top 5 starters (+54 by Wake, Buch, Mastrsn, Byrd, Taz & Bowdn)

    2010- 139 GS from out original top 5 starters (+19 by Wake)

    2011- 110 GS from out original top 5 starters (+23 by Wake & 39 Buch, Miller, Bedard & Weiland)

    2012- 123 GS from out original top 5 starters (+ 28 from Cook & Bard)

    2013- 139 GS from out original top 5 starters (+10 by Peavy)

     

     

    Workman played a big role for us last year, but so many other pitchers got a chance before him: Webster, Wright, Aceves, Mortensen, Morales, Wilson, Hanrahan, Bard, de la Torre, Beato, and probably others. 

    Yes, there may be multiple injuries this year, but there are few other factors to take into account:

    1) Uehara will start the year as our closer. That's good, but his workload will have to be managed well to avoid burnout or injury. He probably should not repeat his 74 IP of 2013.

    Think the Mujica signing really helps here, and the way Miller was pitching when he went down probably could have filled in that role as well.

    We could see Breslow and Taz close a game here and there as well.

     

    2) Buchholz could go from 16 to 32 starts.

    Would love to see it but til it happens not so sure. I would like to see him just show up healthy for ST. He's a big key for us, he stays healthy for entire year he probably finishes top 5 in CY voting.

    Agreed. I wouldn't bet on it, but he just represents one of many chances of getting more IP in 2014 than 2013.

     

    3) Peavy could go from 10 to 32 starts. That's 38 more starts total that we did not have in 2013.

    This one I definately don't see happening. Think RS would be smart to manage his starts and give some of the young guns a chance at times. Think Peavy's yrs of 30 starts are  behind him. Make up an injury give him a couple of weeks off a couple times in season to keep him strong.

    I think the 22 more starts from Peavy that (in theory) take the place of Webster's and some of Dempster's starts could be a big bonanza, if he pitches like he can and has.

     

    4) Doubront could go from 162 IP to 190+, but he needs to improve on his control/ pitch count.

    This I could see happening. Really could see Doubie making the biggest jump of all the starters this year. Really believe with his stuff if he's physically ready he could become a solid #3. Think what he accomplished in the WS will only help him.

    I have been harsh on Doubie and his conditioning, and even though his WHIP did not improve that much last year, I saw improvement. He still needs another step up to be a force, but as I have always said, "the kid has nasty stuff".

     

    5) Miller missed a lot of time last year. He could go from 31 IP to 50ish.

    Another guy who really seems to be just coming into his own and could dominate late in games. RS have the makings of an unbelievable BP.

    Coupled with Breslow, we have a strong left-side combo in the pen. (Britton in the wings could help again.)

     

    6) Workman and Britton had 63 IP in 2013, but started in AAA. They could go from 63 to 163 easily.

    I really like what Workman did for RS last yr. Believe better suited to be a starter, but on RS no place to go. But think he should get 1st opportunity if someone goes down. Britton wouldn't surprise me if he starts yr as starter in Pawtucket to get built back up. Tough being a pitcher on RS team these days. Both these guys belong on MLB roster unfortunately not going to happen due to options and depth of staff.

    I wouldn't be surprised if Workman starts out as a starter in AAA.

     

    7) Wright, Ely and Hinojosa are question marks, but if one is doing well in AAA, they could help.

    8) The pitching prospects are one year older and closer to joining the big club: Webster, de la Rosa, Ranaudo, Barnes, Owens and/or Pena could all get a chance to start.

    After Workman see the order being [depending on how they're pitching in minors] Webster- De la Rosa- Raunado- Wright- Hinojosa w/ Barnes/ Owens a possibility if throwing well late in the year.

    I don't disagree, but if Wright is throwing well, he could be first.

     

    9) The pen could be bolstered by some from the list above or Wilson, Ramirez, Layne, Villareal, Mijares, Watanabe, and/or Valdez.

    One thing I have togive Ben a lot of credit is the depth he has assembled for the entire roster, but most importantly the pitching staff. Even with all the young up and comers, signing a guy like Mujica is a very wise move.

    I was calling for signing Mujica weeks before Ben got him. I agree: great signing!

     

    10) We should have a better staff supporting catching group this year with a healthy Ross and Pierzynski replacing Salty. There may be a learning curve, but overall, it could be a significant help to this year's staff. (Plus, this is the second year under new coaching/managing, so expectations are known, and comfort with the routine should be improved.)

    This scares me a little. Two late 30's catchers could come back to haunt us. I know AJ has a terrific track record for staying on the field. But at some point this could catch up to him. But Butler and hopefully Vasquez could be ready early if one went down. I have no faith in Lavarnway as a catcher and think RS should do him a favor and give him a chance elsewhere.

    In terms of just getting the most out of the pitching staff, I can't see any of our current catchers other than Lava doing worse than Salty/Lava did last year.




     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    The Sox are going into the year with 4 real decent left handed relievers. We just seem to always have more depth than other teams.

    Is it just my imagination or do we just have better decision making overall than most teams. We have money and brains. All we need now is a hotter chick than Jenny Dell, and i think that will also be resoved before spring training.

    In reality though, I think we have a very complicated and detailed mathmatical model running this team. It's 10,000 lines of code in a constant state of refinement, with harvard educated economists fine tuning the math. It seems different than almost any other team. The Rays and St. Louis seem to be lower budget versions of this advanced approach.

    The Yanks appear to have neanderthal man bludgeoning his team into submission. Somehow they still seem to get good results anyway.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Though Jid did an excellent job evaluating and grading last year in ST, can we actually tax him with that again AND finding the next Jenny Dell?

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    The Sox are going into the year with 4 real decent left handed relievers. We just seem to always have more depth than other teams.

    Who am I forgetting? Or, are you counting Doubront as a RP'er?

    Breslow

    Miller

    Britton

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I was always a Theo guy because of the two WS--but now I'm becoming a BC guy.  I would really like to know what happened at the end of his tenure--some of those moves didn't "feel" like Theo to me, Crawford?  Was Theo being pre-emptied by others?  At this early point BC seems a little more conservative, a little more protective of farm products, more emphasis on depth...I've wanted something flashier the last two winters but it's hard to fault his vision and the choices he makes.  Mujica seems like a great pick up, and you had been calling that Moon. You are right Boom--there does seem to be a mind with a firm plan behind the RS.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    The Sox are going into the year with 4 real decent left handed relievers. We just seem to always have more depth than other teams.

    Who am I forgetting? Or, are you counting Doubront as a RP'er?

    Breslow

    Miller

    Britton



    Mijares:

    http://news.soxprospects.com/2014/01/red-sox-sign-veteran-lefty-jose-mijares.html

    He's just depth but over his career he hasn't been that bad.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    They seem like they sweat the details a lot, and are extremely prudent. Not saying that is a perfect approach but it might be a solid approach for a team like the Redsox in particular, which has enough money to retain their core, their proven stars over time.

    Maybe someday Crit, we can freaking retire and go to Florida for a couple weeks as well. I'm 59. Moon retired when he was around 15. How about you?

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jcri's comment:

    I was always a Theo guy because of the two WS--but now I'm becoming a BC guy.  I would really like to know what happened at the end of his tenure--some of those moves didn't "feel" like Theo to me, Crawford?  Was Theo being pre-emptied by others?  At this early point BC seems a little more conservative, a little more protective of farm products, more emphasis on depth...I've wanted something flashier the last two winters but it's hard to fault his vision and the choices he makes.  Mujica seems like a great pick up, and you had been calling that Moon. You are right Boom--there does seem to be a mind with a firm plan behind the RS.



    BINGO!

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    The Sox are going into the year with 4 real decent left handed relievers. We just seem to always have more depth than other teams.

    Who am I forgetting? Or, are you counting Doubront as a RP'er?

    Breslow

    Miller

    Britton



    Mijares:

    http://news.soxprospects.com/2014/01/red-sox-sign-veteran-lefty-jose-mijares.html

    He's just depth but over his career he hasn't been that bad.



    Okay, I was just looking at guys on the 40 man roster, but I suppose he will make an appearance in 2014 with someone going on the DL or being moved elsewhere.

    I forgot all about him. Thanks.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In terms of just getting the most out of the pitching staff, I can't see any of our current catchers other than Lava doing worse than Salty/Lava did last year.



    You're implying that Salty didn't do well with the staff last year, in spite of the huge improvement in the staff ERA?

     

     
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