A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    The longer this drags on the less likely Drew signs here in my opinion. (Now as soon as I type these words watch word come out about his signing.) But I really think the team is committed to the younger players and they were the plan all along. Drew was supposed to be a one year rental but we screwed up and won the World Series with him while waiting for our kids to be ready to win one in 2015. I doubt Ben strays far from the original plan. And the WS win should buy lots of patience from the fan-base waiting out the hiccups that are sure to befall our youngsters.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Jid, I think you are a better journalist than Jenny Dell but she has some attributes you just can't pick up in journalism class.  Moon says you can help interview but I advise against it.  We don't want our best ST correspondent sidelined with fatigue during this critical "need to know" season for the rest of us...

    Boom, so sorry to hear about your medical problems this fall.  Hope you are ok now.  Maybe you could let one of your kids, wife, or trusted worker take over the brunt of the load-you become half time manager, over viewer, etc.  This is going to happen soon anyway, your wife is going to need to know what's what at some point.  If transition starts now, you'll feel good about following your dreams and maybe then bring more to your part time duties.  Just a suggestion, not trying to intrude.

    Boom, I said this a few weeks ago and I meant it--I think your posting this fall and winter has been your very best since I've been coming here.  Very sharp, crisp, inciteful on Tanaka, economics of team, league, younger players, etc.  You turned my thinking around with your reasoning and seems like others too.  RS didn't follow up but you made a very strong pitch and showed how it could be done.  I especially applaud you knowing you weren't at your best in health.



    That's extremely nice of you Crit. I do appreciate it! As we get older we appreciate such things even more. We like to think we are doing something which actually is significant in life, even in a small way. As everything fades into a blur.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Jid, I think you are a better journalist than Jenny Dell but she has some attributes you just can't pick up in journalism class.  Moon says you can help interview but I advise against it.  We don't want our best ST correspondent sidelined with fatigue during this critical "need to know" season for the rest of us...

    Crit back in the day when I was managing hundreds of people and responsible for their hiring, we jokingly referred to the interview process with regard to attractive women as "tryouts", words that would get you a harrassment suit in a heartbeat today. I met Jenny last year at ST and she was a sweetheart, and especially nice to my wheelchair-bound father-in-law. I'm sure she has violated some pre-existing clauses in her contract, but using the term "journalist" to refer to a sideline reporter is a stretch and I'm certain her "objectivity" should never be an issue in her role with NESN. I feel it's much ado about nothing but in our 24 hour-a-day need for news society this has become a story. Too bad.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Jid, I agree.  So much brouhaha over two young kids who have an attraction.  I just wanted to tease you a bit, and I sincerely hope we get those daily updates from you which we're so inciteful last spring.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Jid, I agree.  So much brouhaha over two young kids who have an attraction.  I just wanted to tease you a bit, and I sincerely hope we get those daily updates from you which we're so inciteful last spring.



    I'm anxious to get down there and start doing it, especially when I see the front page of Boston.com saying we have three snowstorms coming next week.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    hill, who do you see as the team most in need of a 3Bman like Middy?

    Looking at the projected WAR for thirdbasemen, Will Middlebrooks would be an upgrade for only a few teams and some of those clubs have promising prospects at third base:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=3B

    I don't think Middlebrooks has great trade value (but my conservative expectations of Middlebrooks are well-known on this forum).

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    hill, who do you see as the team most in need of a 3Bman like Middy?

    Looking at the projected WAR for thirdbasemen, Will Middlebrooks would be an upgrade for only a few teams and some of those clubs have promising prospects at third base:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=3B

    I don't think Middlebrooks has great trade value (but my conservative expectations of Middlebrooks are well-known on this forum).



    Thanks, so the worst projected 3B teams might be (only listed those worse than Boston):

    30) Florida 

    29) Cubs

    28) Yanks

    27) MN

    26) Philly

    25) CWS

    24) Det

    23) Atl

    22) Houston

    21) LAD

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Fangraphs Projected WAR Position by Position:

          Boston             Tampa Bay        NYYanks

    C   +2.7 (25th)    +2.9 (21st)    +3.7 (6th)

    1B +2.6 (16th)     +1.6 (21st)   +2.6 (17th)

    2B +4.0 (3rd)      +4.3 (2nd)    +1.6 (22nd)

    3B +2.8 (20th)     +6.1 (1st)     +1.7 (28th)

    SS +3.1 (10th)    +3.5 (5th)     +1.5 (25th)

    LF +1.9 (17th)     +1.8 (19th)  +2.0 (15th)

    CF +2.3 (23rd)    +3.2 (16th)   +3.9 (5th)

    RF +3.1 (10th)    +3.3 (8th)      +1.9 (19th)

    DH +2.7 (1st)      +1.7 (5th)      +0.1 (15th)

    SP 18.2 (2nd)     12.6 (10th)    16.6  (3rd)

    RP   4.7 (2nd)     +1.5 (22nd)    +3.2 (6th)

     

    Totals:

    1) 46.7 Red Sox  

    2) 44.7 Tigers

    3) 42.5 Rays

    4) 42.5 Rangers

    5) 41.7 Cards

    6) 41.6 Dodgers

    7) 41.5 Royals

    8) 41.1 A's

    9) 40.7 Angels

    10) 40.2 Indians

    11) 39.6 Blue Jays

    12) 38.9 Yankees

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Fangraphs Projected WAR Position by Position vs 2013:

          2014                  2013             

    C   +2.7 (25th)    +4.7 (5th)

    1B +2.6 (16th)    +5.1 (5th) 

    2B +4.0 (3rd)      +5.3 (4th)

    3B +2.8 (20th)      0.0 (23rd)

    SS +3.1 (10th)    +3.8 (7th)

    LF +1.9 (17th)     +4.3 (6th)

    CF +2.3 (23rd)    +6.0 (6th)

    RF +3.1 (10th)    +7.8 (1st)

    DH +2.7 (1st)      +3.8 (3rd)

    SP 18.2 (2nd)     15.9 (3rd)

    RP   4.7 (2nd)     +5.8 (4th)

     

    Only areas showing improvement: SP & 3B.

     The loss of Salty moves us from 5th to 25th.

     They must think Nava's 2013 was a fluke.

     Biggest losses (-3.7) are RH and CF.

    ______________________________\

     

    I'm not sure why fangraphs is so down on Napoli and our 1Bmen. To place us 16th is way off, in my opinion.

    Going from 6th to 17th in LF is also surprising. Gomes should bounce back to form vs lefties, and that would be a big boost, even if Nava slips. Then, we have Carp as the 3rd man.

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    People just don't like Middlebrook's walk rate and such. It is an important projector. What I hope they are missing is that he had substantial pop before he got hurt. Wrist injuries and rib injuries can have a huge impact on performance. My bet is he comes back strong in 2014 and maybe even slots in around #5 or #6 in the lineup eventually.

    Could be wrong but it might just be that the guy was injured?

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Since the entire league thinks he's damaged goods, and possibly not even a starter at this point, I think we should roll the dice and play Middlebrooks. Maybe his value returns.

    When Cechinni emerges at year end we might have one heck of a platoon!

    And an optional trade available. 3rd base prospects like that are of tremendous value. It's interesting how the Marlins were all over Cechinni trying to land him last year. It could well be that they would want him as a key part of a Stanton trade. They drafted a guy a lot like Cechinni last year at #1. They clearly like that type of player. And who wouldn't. Cechinni has a very secure floor. He's probably an almost definite mlb regular at some point.

    Cechinni could be a Christian Yelich clone and play the OF very well for Miami, and be dirt cheap for years. He's a lot like Yelich. That type of bat just projects extremely well in mlb. And there is no reason he couldn't play 3rd base also but Miami would probably throw him right into the majors next year if they had him, after just a month or 2 in AAA.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Great stuff Moon!

    Did we really get 4.7 WAR out of Salty/Ross/Lavarnway last year? Wow!

    Salty came in at 3.6 WAR. At $6 mil per WAR he should be worth $21.4 mil in one year.

    But he signed for $21 mil over 3 years.

    Talk about the market not believing the numbers.

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Great stuff Moon!

    Did we really get 4.7 WAR out of Salty/Ross/Lavarnway last year? Wow!

    Salty came in at 3.6 WAR. At $6 mil per WAR he should be worth $21.4 mil in one year.

    But he signed for $21 mil over 3 years.

    Talk about the market not believing the numbers.

     



    We had the 5th best Catcher WAR last year, despite Ross being hurt for about half of it and hitting below expectations. If AJP does not perform well this year, we could see a bigger WAR drop than in CF.

    It appears the projections are showing a lot of players come "back to earth" after last year, but I think projections almost always err on the side of caution and conservativeism.

    I like how they project our SP'ers #2 and our bullpen #2. That's better than our 3rd and 4th place finishes last year.

    I'm still thinking we may end up scoring about the same amount of runs as last year.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Great stuff Moon!

    Did we really get 4.7 WAR out of Salty/Ross/Lavarnway last year? Wow!

    Salty came in at 3.6 WAR. At $6 mil per WAR he should be worth $21.4 mil in one year.

    But he signed for $21 mil over 3 years.

    Talk about the market not believing the numbers.

     



    ...and we got nothing for him.

    Last spring, I suggested we extend him or trade him, if he wasn't in our longterm plans.

    I still think signing him for $22M/3 would have been a good deal, and we could have traded him, if Vazquez or Swihart looked ready.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Boom, I haven't been around too much lately....just kind of burned out and feel I don't have much to contibute.   But, I did just read about your medical misfortune.

    I sincerely wish you good health and longevity.  Like Hill said modern nephrology can do astounding things.  So, hang in there.

    As far as prosperity goes, what good is all the money in the world if you don't have the health to enjoy it?  So, if you're feeling pretty good now, take advantage of it.  Really, life is just too short to not enjoy the time we have here.   

    We may be on the opposite poles as far as politics go, but I consider you a friend and sincerely hope the best for you.  Take that beautiful wife of yours on that cruise or whatever.  You deserve it.

     

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from 808soxfan. Show 808soxfan's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    hill, who do you see as the team most in need of a 3Bman like Middy?

    Looking at the projected WAR for thirdbasemen, Will Middlebrooks would be an upgrade for only a few teams and some of those clubs have promising prospects at third base:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=3B

    I don't think Middlebrooks has great trade value (but my conservative expectations of Middlebrooks are well-known on this forum).



    Thanks, so the worst projected 3B teams might be (only listed those worse than Boston):

    30) Florida 

    29) Cubs

    28) Yanks

    27) MN

    26) Philly

    25) CWS

    24) Det

    23) Atl

    22) Houston

    21) LAD



    Hi Moon. Do you try to package Middy and others for the Marlins' Fernandez? Would be great to have a rotation of Lester, Lackey, Doubront, Buch, and Fernandez. Might have to part with some high end pitching prospects, but RS could definitely part with Peavy in a subsequest trade. Can't see many teams having the same interest in Dempster as they would in Peavy. Also can't see Peavy being too happy as the 6th pitcher.

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Hi Moon. Do you try to package Middy and others for the Marlins' Fernandez? Would be great to have a rotation of Lester, Lackey, Doubront, Buch, and Fernandez. Might have to part with some high end pitching prospects, but RS could definitely part with Peavy in a subsequest trade. Can't see many teams having the same interest in Dempster as they would in Peavy. Also can't see Peavy being too happy as the 6th pitcher.

    I'd have to see the rest of the package, but it would take much more than Middy.

    I could see a three team deal: peavy to someone, 2 prospects from that team to the Marlins, and we send Middy and a prospect or two.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Projected SP WAR for the Sox:

    WAR  Pitcher  IP

    3.5  Lester 186

    3.4  Lackey 180

    2.4  Buchholz 146

    2.4  Peavy  140

    2.4  Doubront 140

    1.0  Dempster 56

    1.0  Workman 56

    0.5  Webster 49

    0.3  Ranaudo 28

     

    The Tigers have 3 guys over 4.0 and 4 over 3.1, but nobody has 5 guys over 2.4.

    The Yanks have: CC 3.9, Tanaka 3.9, Kuroda 3.4, Nova 2.8, and Phelps 1.1.

    The Rays have: Price 4.0, Cobb at 3.5, Moore 2.0, Archer 1.6 & Hellickson 0.7

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Thanks Amp! I appreciate it!

    Fernandez might actually be the most valuable trade piece in baseball. 5 years of control over a guy with potentially the best outlook of any pitcher going forward. Miami could get 1/2 a team for him.

    He, Mike Trout and Harper are probably the most valuable players in baseball in terms of trade value. I'm probably forgetting someone but he doesn't play with the Redsox. No, not even Xander.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    People just don't like Middlebrook's walk rate and such. It is an important projector. What I hope they are missing is that he had substantial pop before he got hurt. Wrist injuries and rib injuries can have a huge impact on performance. My bet is he comes back strong in 2014 and maybe even slots in around #5 or #6 in the lineup eventually.

    Could be wrong but it might just be that the guy was injured?




    Someone who gets it! Trading WMB now would be a very bad move. Not saying he will become all-star, but based on what he did  prior to wrist injury should be more than enough to give him at the very least this year to bounce back and show which player he really is. Would not want to see him become the pre wrist injury player he was w/ another organization. Look at Papi following wrist injury anyone remember Tito pinch hitting for him? it seems so long ago, or remember Pedroia struggling as a young player. Sometimes as a fan we have to live w/ the growing pains. Wish every young player we had could come up and be great from the beginning, but not the way it works. Many work there way thru it others never make it. Hopefully WMB will bounce back, if not Cecchini will get his chance. The reality of MLB!

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to garyhow's comment:

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    People just don't like Middlebrook's walk rate and such. It is an important projector. What I hope they are missing is that he had substantial pop before he got hurt. Wrist injuries and rib injuries can have a huge impact on performance. My bet is he comes back strong in 2014 and maybe even slots in around #5 or #6 in the lineup eventually.

    Could be wrong but it might just be that the guy was injured?

     

     

    Someone who gets it! Trading WMB now would be a very bad move. Not saying he will become all-star, but based on what he did  prior to wrist injury should be more than enough to give him at the very least this year to bounce back and show which player he really is. Would not want to see him become the pre wrist injury player he was w/ another organization. Look at Papi following wrist injury anyone remember Tito pinch hitting for him? it seems so long ago, or remember Pedroia struggling as a young player. Sometimes as a fan we have to live w/ the growing pains. Wish every young player we had could come up and be great from the beginning, but not the way it works. Many work there way thru it others never make it. Hopefully WMB will bounce back, if not Cecchini will get his chance. The reality of MLB!

     

     



     

    Will probably wouldn't bring us much of a return unless he was packaged with a few other good prospects or a SP.  Our best bet is he turns into the guy many hoped because Bogy is our only other 3B who might help our cause.  Checchini should be a nice hitter but just doesn't have the glove at 3B yet.

    I hope Will has a solid season, he is one of our biggest question marks heading into the season.



     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Will Middlebrooks has as much a chance to succeed as anyone in the Yankees infield so far next year. The Yanks would probably take him as their 3rd baseman in a heartbeat.

    We can't spend like drunken sailors and a big part of that is trading players when they are at optimum value, rather than at the bottom of their value matrix.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Will Middlebrooks has as much a chance to succeed as anyone in the Yankees infield so far next year. The Yanks would probably take him as their 3rd baseman in a heartbeat.

    We can't spend like drunken sailors and a big part of that is trading players when they are at optimum value, rather than at the bottom of their value matrix.



    I really don't see us trading Middy. His stock is low right now.

    Even if we sign Drew, I think we hold onto Middy.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    Great stuff Moon!

    Did we really get 4.7 WAR out of Salty/Ross/Lavarnway last year? Wow!

    Salty came in at 3.6 WAR. At $6 mil per WAR he should be worth $21.4 mil in one year.

    But he signed for $21 mil over 3 years.

    Talk about the market not believing the numbers.

     

     



    ...and we got nothing for him.

     

    Last spring, I suggested we extend him or trade him, if he wasn't in our longterm plans.

    I still think signing him for $22M/3 would have been a good deal, and we could have traded him, if Vazquez or Swihart looked ready.



    We got something from him if not for him Moon, we got a World Series championship. I said many times last year that he was having an outstanding year (at least until the playoffs) and the pitchers really seemed to like to throw to him. I also said he would be the first of the four free agents I would lock up. So much for my expertise and credibility. Something tells me there's more to this story than him throwing a ball, and ultimately a playoff game away. Hopefully it's as simple as they love the way the kids, Vasquez and Swihart, have developed and didn't want to go more than one year on any veteran catcher. We'll see.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    ...and we got nothing for him.

     

    Last spring, I suggested we extend him or trade him, if he wasn't in our longterm plans.

    I still think signing him for $22M/3 would have been a good deal, and we could have traded him, if Vazquez or Swihart looked ready.

    [/QUOTE]

    We got something from him if not for him Moon, we got a World Series championship. I said many times last year that he was having an outstanding year (at least until the playoffs) and the pitchers really seemed to like to throw to him.

    I do think Salty played a big role in our making the playoffs. Once there, he really only had that one big hit. If we had traded Salty last winter, we'd have replaced him with somebody that was capable. Would we have still won a ring? Probably- maybe? We certainly would have gotten something for him.

    I was against tarding him last year, and was for extending him before his price went up.

    I still think he'd have been worth more than what the Marlins paid him. At $22M/3, he'd be cheaper than AJP this year, and could have been dealt once one of the kids proved worthy of the job.

     

    I also said he would be the first of the four free agents I would lock up. So much for my expertise and credibility. Something tells me there's more to this story than him throwing a ball, and ultimately a playoff game away. Hopefully it's as simple as they love the way the kids, Vasquez and Swihart, have developed and didn't want to go more than one year on any veteran catcher. We'll see.

    I think the benching of Salty to end the WS was the final straw.

     
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