A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    It is amazing that Salty's WAR value had him at 3 times what he got. How often do we see that, especially in a time when WAR values were actually translating more like $7 mil x WAR value? The pros just were not buying the positive defensive WAR and they didn't see the offensive WAR continuing at that rate either. Anywhere near that rate apparently.

    Going forward, I bet Peirzynsky give us similar numbers to what Salty gets but he ha no pressure now down there in Miami and will have a premium spot in the lineup. Loria is obviously a bargain shopper. If Salty does find a way to still put up good numbers he will be traded within 6 months probably!

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    It is amazing that Salty's WAR value had him at 3 times what he got. How often do we see that, especially in a time when WAR values were actually translating more like $7 mil x WAR value? The pros just were not buying the positive defensive WAR and they didn't see the offensive WAR continuing at that rate either. Anywhere near that rate apparently.

    Going forward, I bet Peirzynsky give us similar numbers to what Salty gets but he ha no pressure now down there in Miami and will have a premium spot in the lineup. Loria is obviously a bargain shopper. If Salty does find a way to still put up good numbers he will be traded within 6 months probably!



    I don't think Salty's offense was a fluke in 2013. Obviously Salty's defense and behind the plate factors played a role in low contract offers. Further proof that MLB GMs do value what a catcher does behind the plate, including handling a staff.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    MLBTR...

     

    • The Red Sox are wary about making too long a commitment to 38-year-old David Ortiz given how aging designated hitters can so quickly decline, Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald writes.  Ortiz is under contract through 2014 and recently said he would like another year added to his contract.  While Ortiz's age is a concern, Lauber notes that if the Red Sox don't extend Ortiz and he has another big season, the Sox will then be forced to sign him through at least 2016 to keep him in Boston.

     

    • Jon Lester is another Red Sox player mentioned in extension rumors, and John Tomase of the Boston Herald looks at the somewhat shaky history of left-handed starters who sign expensive contracts into their 30's.  Since Lester has said he would give the Red Sox a hometown discount, Tomase thinks a five-year, $100MM extension could work for both sides.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    If we extend Lester, it won't be until after the season starts.

    $100M/5 seems like a lot for a pitcher his age, and with some sketchy recent seasons, but at today's rates, it would be a "discount". 

    I'd do it, but the risk is significant.

     

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I think Lester at 5/$100 mil is cheap. I think his idea of a hometown discount might well be more than that!

    The whole Salty thing doesn't fit conventional analysis. If teams thought he would come anywhere near this year's numbers going forward they would have signed him to a contract commensurate with this year's numbers. And the staff did fine this year so how do you explain it other than no one thought he was the reason the staff did well and no one thought he would replicate his numbers any time soon. 

    This past year was considered an aberation. They valued him as if he were at 2012 numbers.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I think Lester at 5/$100 mil is cheap. I think his idea of a hometown discount might well be more than that!

    Agreed. Maybe we will offer him $100M/5 with a 6th year option at $20M with a $5M buyout- making it  $105M/5 year deal (or $$120M/6, if we take the option).

     

    The whole Salty thing doesn't fit conventional analysis. If teams thought he would come anywhere near this year's numbers going forward they would have signed him to a contract commensurate with this year's numbers. And the staff did fine this year so how do you explain it other than no one thought he was the reason the staff did well and no one thought he would replicate his numbers any time soon. 

    This past year was considered an aberation. They valued him as if he were at 2012 numbers.

    Salty's 2013 numbers may end up being the best of his career, especially since he will not be playing in Fenway anymore (40 point higher career OPS in Fenway than his overall OPS that includes about 33% of all his PAs) , but I'm still not so sure his great numbers were a fluke. As a catcher, I think he had been concentrating on improving his biggest weakness- fielding, and perhaps had neglected his offense to some extent. He just turned 28 last May, so it was his first "prime year". He is still in his prime now and will be for the full 3 year contract. He had improved on his OPS for 4 straight years (.625> .676> .737> .743> .804).

    I get the argument over his high BAbip numbers in 2013, and how that signals a drop off this year, but when you look more closely at all the data, you'll see a big part of it was not luck, but rather a much improved LD%. His BAbip was about 50 points higher than his overall career mark and over 100 points higher than 2012. If you adjusted his 2012 BAbip number to his career norm, then his 2013 numbers would be more in line with a gradual improvement curve that most players experience as the enter "prime", and his 2013 season would not look so freaky. Salty had about the same amount of PAs in 2013 as 2012 (470-448), but he had 21 more line drives (82 to 61). That's about a 33% increase! When you figure he had 25 more ABs and 26 more hits, those 21 more line drives could have accounted ofr just about all of the increased BAbip. It might not have been more bloopers and seeing-eye grounders.

    If I had to project Salty's 2014 numbers, I'd have bet he'd end up close to his .804 OPS had he stayed with Boston (maybe around .795), but now that he is in Florida, I'd project about .780 to .785, which still makes his $21M/3 year deal look like a steal. Speaking of steals, it will be interesting to see if his CS rate improves by moving out of Boston.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    If we extend Lester, it won't be until after the season starts.

    $100M/5 seems like a lot for a pitcher his age, and with some sketchy recent seasons, but at today's rates, it would be a "discount". 

    I'd do it, but the risk is significant.

     

     




    For some reason just don't see RS going 5-6 yrs for Lester. IMO RS will go 4 w/ an option for the 5th, based on IP or something along those lines in yrs 3-4. Agree following some scetchy times in the past 3 seasons. Think the RS want to see more of the good Jon Lester before extension gets done during the 14 season. Still think he must prove thats he's still a top of rotation starter even following a brilliant 13 post season.

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from J-BAY. Show J-BAY's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I


    Pete Abraham @PeteAbe 17 mins

    #RedSox RHP Brayan Villarreal, who was DFA’d, cleared waivers and was outrighted to AAA. He was invited to spring training

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to garyhow's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    If we extend Lester, it won't be until after the season starts.

    $100M/5 seems like a lot for a pitcher his age, and with some sketchy recent seasons, but at today's rates, it would be a "discount". 

    I'd do it, but the risk is significant.

     

     




    For some reason just don't see RS going 5-6 yrs for Lester. IMO RS will go 4 w/ an option for the 5th, based on IP or something along those lines in yrs 3-4. Agree following some scetchy times in the past 3 seasons. Think the RS want to see more of the good Jon Lester before extension gets done during the 14 season. Still think he must prove thats he's still a top of rotation starter even following a brilliant 13 post season.

     




    I doubt Lester takes a 4 year deal at a "discount".

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to J-BAY's comment:


    Pete Abraham @PeteAbe 17 mins

    #RedSox RHP Brayan Villarreal, who was DFA’d, cleared waivers and was outrighted to AAA. He was invited to spring training



    I'm glad we kept him. He has potential.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to garyhow's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    If we extend Lester, it won't be until after the season starts.

    $100M/5 seems like a lot for a pitcher his age, and with some sketchy recent seasons, but at today's rates, it would be a "discount". 

    I'd do it, but the risk is significant.

     

     




    For some reason just don't see RS going 5-6 yrs for Lester. IMO RS will go 4 w/ an option for the 5th, based on IP or something along those lines in yrs 3-4. Agree following some scetchy times in the past 3 seasons. Think the RS want to see more of the good Jon Lester before extension gets done during the 14 season. Still think he must prove thats he's still a top of rotation starter even following a brilliant 13 post season.

     




    I doubt Lester takes a 4 year deal at a "discount".



    I might go three years plus a team option in the fourth year for Lester tops.  We have a lot of good young pitchers and probably a few more who might surprise us in the wings.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    It is amazing that Salty's WAR value had him at 3 times what he got. How often do we see that, especially in a time when WAR values were actually translating more like $7 mil x WAR value? The pros just were not buying the positive defensive WAR and they didn't see the offensive WAR continuing at that rate either. Anywhere near that rate apparently.

    Going forward, I bet Peirzynsky give us similar numbers to what Salty gets but he ha no pressure now down there in Miami and will have a premium spot in the lineup. Loria is obviously a bargain shopper. If Salty does find a way to still put up good numbers he will be traded within 6 months probably!



    I don't think Salty's offense was a fluke in 2013. Obviously Salty's defense and behind the plate factors played a role in low contract offers. Further proof that MLB GMs do value what a catcher does behind the plate, including handling a staff.



    I think last year was a glimpse of what Salty could do offensively and feel he may just have even better years in the NL league.  AJ is as good or better without the need for a long term commitment.  If Vasquez and Swihart stay on track it was the best move for the club.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from 808soxfan. Show 808soxfan's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Hey Moon!

    Congratulations on 40000 posts! That's a lot of insightful information! Thank you for all the baseball wisdom!

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I don't think Salty's offense was a fluke in 2013. Obviously Salty's defense and behind the plate factors played a role in low contract offers. Further proof that MLB GMs do value what a catcher does behind the plate, including handling a staff.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I think last year was a glimpse of what Salty could do offensively and feel he may just have even better years in the NL league.  AJ is as good or better without the need for a long term commitment.  If Vasquez and Swihart stay on track it was the best move for the club.

     

    We could have easily traded Salty once Vazquez or Swihart was ready.  Salty cost less than AJP (per year), so I wish we still had him.

    Salty was improving with the staff. His only big weakness was throwing.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to 808soxfan's comment:

    Hey Moon!

    Congratulations on 40000 posts! That's a lot of insightful information! Thank you for all the baseball wisdom!



    Thanks.

    I should start getting some royalties anytime now.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I don't think Salty's offense was a fluke in 2013. Obviously Salty's defense and behind the plate factors played a role in low contract offers. Further proof that MLB GMs do value what a catcher does behind the plate, including handling a staff.

     

     



    I think last year was a glimpse of what Salty could do offensively and feel he may just have even better years in the NL league.  AJ is as good or better without the need for a long term commitment.  If Vasquez and Swihart stay on track it was the best move for the club.

     

     

    We could have easily traded Salty once Vazquez or Swihart was ready.  Salty cost less than AJP (per year), so I wish we still had him.

    Salty was improving with the staff. His only big weakness was throwing.

    [/QUOTE]

    moon,

    I think the mental breakdowns buried Salty.  The arm was never great but he still took chances only a strong armed more accurate catcher should along with other occasional lapses in judgement.  Vets tend to make less mistakes so I kind of like the AJ/Ross combo.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Wow Moon, you're getting up there to novel range.  Thanks and way to go!  

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I don't think Salty's offense was a fluke in 2013. Obviously Salty's defense and behind the plate factors played a role in low contract offers. Further proof that MLB GMs do value what a catcher does behind the plate, including handling a staff.

     

     



    I think last year was a glimpse of what Salty could do offensively and feel he may just have even better years in the NL league.  AJ is as good or better without the need for a long term commitment.  If Vasquez and Swihart stay on track it was the best move for the club.

     

     

    We could have easily traded Salty once Vazquez or Swihart was ready.  Salty cost less than AJP (per year), so I wish we still had him.

    Salty was improving with the staff. His only big weakness was throwing.



    moon,

    I think the mental breakdowns buried Salty.  The arm was never great but he still took chances only a strong armed more accurate catcher should along with other occasional lapses in judgement.  Vets tend to make less mistakes so I kind of like the AJ/Ross combo.



    I disagree.  The throw was not a mental breakdown. There was a play at 3B. Middy could have caught it, so it wasn't even all Salty's fault anyways.

    Sure, he made some bad throws and plays- everyone does. I do not think Salty made much more than his share.

    I agree AJP and Ross should improve our catcher defense and staff ERA to some extent, but I seriously doubt they come close to his .804 OPS.

 
  • You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Wow Moon, you're getting up there to novel range.  Thanks and way to go!  



    I'm still waiting for the movie rights offers.

     
  • You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Believe it or not Moon, at current ad rates and factoring for 25 posts per page, you have generated about $21 for the Boston globe all by yourself. Seems like it should be more huh....but that is why they are on the ropes I guess.

    They need more Moons!

    No way Salty should have thrown that ball to 3rd in the World Series. Bad decision all the way IMO.

     
  • You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to garyhow's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    If we extend Lester, it won't be until after the season starts.

    $100M/5 seems like a lot for a pitcher his age, and with some sketchy recent seasons, but at today's rates, it would be a "discount". 

    I'd do it, but the risk is significant.

     

     




    For some reason just don't see RS going 5-6 yrs for Lester. IMO RS will go 4 w/ an option for the 5th, based on IP or something along those lines in yrs 3-4. Agree following some scetchy times in the past 3 seasons. Think the RS want to see more of the good Jon Lester before extension gets done during the 14 season. Still think he must prove thats he's still a top of rotation starter even following a brilliant 13 post season.

     

    I doubt Lester takes a 4 year deal at a "discount"




    As much as I believe Lester will have a big yr this yr, if he does not he could be joining the Ervin Santana / Ubaldo Jiminez sweepstakes. Garza had no 1st round pick attached and he got 4 yrs? A yr ago none of us here were endorsing a big extension for Lester, things can change in a hurry in 1 year! Lester has bad yr, Henry Owens lights it up in minors we could be looking at last yr here for Lester. RS have let better players walk. I don't see this happening but crazier things have happened like RS winning 2013 WS.

     

     




  •  
  • You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Believe it or not Moon, at current ad rates and factoring for 25 posts per page, you have generated about $21 for the Boston globe all by yourself. Seems like it should be more huh....but that is why they are on the ropes I guess.

    They need more Moons!

    No way Salty should have thrown that ball to 3rd in the World Series. Bad decision all the way IMO.



    We'll have to agree to disagree on the decision part of that throw. I think he was almost out, even with the bad throw, so a play was there, and again, it should have been caught or stopped.

     
  • You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    As much as I believe Lester will have a big yr this yr, if he does not he could be joining the Ervin Santana / Ubaldo Jiminez sweepstakes. Garza had no 1st round pick attached and he got 4 yrs? A yr ago none of us here were endorsing a big extension for Lester, things can change in a hurry in 1 year! Lester has bad yr, Henry Owens lights it up in minors we could be looking at last yr here for Lester. RS have let better players walk. I don't see this happening but crazier things have happened like RS winning 2013 WS.

    There's a lot of logic in the "wait a year and see" approach, and if Lester is serious about taking a hometown discount, maybe he will in November as well.

     
  • You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    As much as I believe Lester will have a big yr this yr, if he does not he could be joining the Ervin Santana / Ubaldo Jiminez sweepstakes. Garza had no 1st round pick attached and he got 4 yrs? A yr ago none of us here were endorsing a big extension for Lester, things can change in a hurry in 1 year! Lester has bad yr, Henry Owens lights it up in minors we could be looking at last yr here for Lester. RS have let better players walk. I don't see this happening but crazier things have happened like RS winning 2013 WS.

    There's a lot of logic in the "wait a year and see" approach, and if Lester is serious about taking a hometown discount, maybe he will in November as well.




    Works both ways. If he goes out and has a big year could cost team a lot more than it would in ST. IMO Lester biggest problem has been himself at times, when things go bad can let emotions get best of him. As for his stuff, its still plenty good. Thats why I see w/ Farrell as Mgr/ Nieves PC not being as concerned about locking him up, but still don't believe RS will go for 6 yrs, still think 5 is as far RS would go.

     

     
  • You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I agree. 5 should be the max.

     
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