A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I don't think RS should do deal in ST, wait til mid season then work out a deal if he's still pitching like he did in post season. IMO RS need to see more of the good J.Lester. I would like him back like most RS fans, but don't want to be saddled w/ contract that we come to regret only 2 yrs in.

    [/QUOTE]

    Waiting till mid season is a good idea on its face, but the problem is that Lester might want the extension dealt with before the season starts, or if not he might want to go to free agency.  Why would he want to give any discount if it's midway in the season and he's pitching great?  At that point his free agency value would only have gone up.

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I don't think RS should do deal in ST, wait til mid season then work out a deal if he's still pitching like he did in post season. IMO RS need to see more of the good J.Lester. I would like him back like most RS fans, but don't want to be saddled w/ contract that we come to regret only 2 yrs in.

    [/QUOTE]

    Waiting till mid season is a good idea on its face, but the problem is that Lester might want the extension dealt with before the season starts, or if not he might want to go to free agency.  Why would he want to give any discount if it's midway in the season and he's pitching great?  At that point his free agency value would only have gone up.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    They will wait until after the season starts so as to not put a hit on the luxury budget numbers... like they did with AGon.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    It was frustrating to watch Lester in the middle of the summer when he seemed so "lost" but in the playoffs he was magnificent.  Sometimes it's difficult to make those two pitchers be the same person.  I know any good pitcher can have an off game or two.  But Lester sometimes gets lost for a month.  I'm for signing him for what you guys are saying--5/100-120--but I wouldn't go beyond that.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I don't think RS should do deal in ST, wait til mid season then work out a deal if he's still pitching like he did in post season. IMO RS need to see more of the good J.Lester. I would like him back like most RS fans, but don't want to be saddled w/ contract that we come to regret only 2 yrs in.

    [/QUOTE]

    Waiting till mid season is a good idea on its face, but the problem is that Lester might want the extension dealt with before the season starts, or if not he might want to go to free agency.  Why would he want to give any discount if it's midway in the season and he's pitching great?  At that point his free agency value would only have gone up.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    They will wait until after the season starts so as to not put a hit on the luxury budget numbers... like they did with AGon.

    [/QUOTE]

    True, but they had a deal -- or basic parameters in place -- long before that.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    They will wait until after the season starts so as to not put a hit on the luxury budget numbers... like they did with AGon.

    [/QUOTE]

    True, but they had a deal -- or basic parameters in place -- long before that.

     

    Yes, I remember softy's 1000+ post thread about how AGon did not have a "wink-wink" deal before the season started.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    In response to garyhow's comment:

    I don't think RS should do deal in ST, wait til mid season then work out a deal if he's still pitching like he did in post season. IMO RS need to see more of the good J.Lester. I would like him back like most RS fans, but don't want to be saddled w/ contract that we come to regret only 2 yrs in.

     



    Waiting till mid season is a good idea on its face, but the problem is that Lester might want the extension dealt with before the season starts, or if not he might want to go to free agency.  Why would he want to give any discount if it's midway in the season and he's pitching great?  At that point his free agency value would only have gone up.

     

     




    He was an Ace calibur pitcher for 4 years. The Sox had all sorts of issues in 2012 and Jon had a down year, and he wasnt the only one. He had a solid start in 2013, had a 6 week stumble, then reverted to his usual TOTR performance and an ACE performance in the playoffs and WS. Lester has earned an extension. Theres no need to wait. Lester is a guy that should pitch well into his mid 30's. Lock him up now with an agreement, then make it official after game 1.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    He was an Ace calibur pitcher for 4 years. The Sox had all sorts of issues in 2012 and Jon had a down year, and he wasnt the only one. He had a solid start in 2013, had a 6 week stumble, then reverted to his usual TOTR performance and an ACE performance in the playoffs and WS. Lester has earned an extension. Theres no need to wait. Lester is a guy that should pitch well into his mid 30's. Lock him up now with an agreement, then make it official after game 1

    While I tend to agree, there's a long list of pitchers who should have pitched well into their mid 30's...

    but did not.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I have no problem extending Lester but if it gets over $115 mil or so and 6 years, I recommend that we wait to see how he does in 2014 before making that decision. And I think it may well be in the 6 years and $130 mil plus range. It could even be in the $150 mil range.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I have no problem extending Lester but if it gets over $115 mil or so and 6 years, I recommend that we wait to see how he does in 2014 before making that decision. And I think it may well be in the 6 years and $130 mil plus range. It could even be in the $150 mil range.

    [/QUOTE]

    Waiting until after 2014 will also allow us to have a better understanding of how well all our pitching prospects are progressing.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from 808soxfan. Show 808soxfan's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I would offer Lester 5/100 after his 2014 Opening Day performance. We will have Lackey for another year and hopefully Doubront has a good season, but who else at this point? Peavy and Dempster will be gone, so there are two spots that prospects can occupy after this season, even though they are arguably the 5th and 6th rotation spots.

    Buch worries me the most. He still seems really frail. I definitely lock in Lester if Buch falters at all in ST. Buch never really came back last year. I hope he comes back strong and has a full solid year with 25-30 starts, but he was supposed to be strong last year too.

     I think we will need two prospects to step up into rotation spots in 2015.

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    While I tend to agree, there's a long list of pitchers who should have pitched well into their mid 30's...

    but did not.

    [/QUOTE]

    And Lester is almost exactly the same age as A. Sanchez, who you advocated signing last year.  (A 5-year extension for Lester would be 2 years beyond Sanchez's deal.)  The point is that you saw Sanchez as a good bet and right now it looks that way.

    Everybody knows there's major risk with any of these big-money deals for pitchers.  All you can do is make calculated risks.  Lester has been a strong, durable guy up to now.  He seems like a relatively good bet. 

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Waiting until after 2014 will also allow us to have a better understanding of how well all our pitching prospects are progressing.

    [/QUOTE]

    Waiting until after 2014 also means he's a free agent, you've lost the chance for a discount and you may have lost him period.  Could be an expensive mistake.

    Plus the info you gain on the prospects is not going to give you that much assurance on their long-term viability as MLB starters, unless something spectacular happens this year.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    He was an Ace calibur pitcher for 4 years. The Sox had all sorts of issues in 2012 and Jon had a down year, and he wasnt the only one. He had a solid start in 2013, had a 6 week stumble, then reverted to his usual TOTR performance and an ACE performance in the playoffs and WS. Lester has earned an extension. Theres no need to wait. Lester is a guy that should pitch well into his mid 30's. Lock him up now with an agreement, then make it official after game 1

    While I tend to agree, there's a long list of pitchers who should have pitched well into their mid 30's...

    but did not.

    [/QUOTE]


    While I want J.Lester to remain a RS. Everyone here knows how important I feel pitching is. There are some things that can not be ignored. The finish in 11, the whole 12 season pretty much, and the middle of the 13 season. The RS FO is all about smart baseball decisions. Just this past off season they wanted Ellsbury back but unfortunately it came down to a decision and theirs was that he was not worth 153 over 7 yrs. In Lesters case do RS believe strongly enough that the hiring of Farrell and PC Nieves are what ailed Lester the past 3 seasons at various points and that this reunion will help Lester get back to a what a few yrs ago everyone predicted would become the top of the rotation ace very shortly. It will come down to how he pitches to start yr and what exactly a home town team discount amounts to? While Lester at times [this past post season] He has been that ace there have been many portions of recent seasons he has not. Will be real interesting to see how RS handle this case, my heart says RS / Lester work out a 4-5 yr extension. Just think ownership has a place for players who want to play here. Players like Ells /Damon/Pedro [its all about the $] can go elsewhere if the #'s don't work vs. what they perceive as the return value.

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    While I tend to agree, there's a long list of pitchers who should have pitched well into their mid 30's...

    but did not.

    [/QUOTE]

    And Lester is almost exactly the same age as A. Sanchez, who you advocated signing last year.  (A 5-year extension for Lester would be 2 years beyond Sanchez's deal.)  The point is that you saw Sanchez as a good bet and right now it looks that way.

    Everybody knows there's major risk with any of these big-money deals for pitchers.  All you can do is make calculated risks.  Lester has been a strong, durable guy up to now.  He seems like a relatively good bet. 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I have not said I am against signing Lester- just pointing out the risks.

    At this point, I'd probably be for offering a $100M/5 year extension to be signed day 2 of this season.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Waiting until after 2014 will also allow us to have a better understanding of how well all our pitching prospects are progressing.

    [/QUOTE]

    Waiting until after 2014 also means he's a free agent, you've lost the chance for a discount and you may have lost him period.  Could be an expensive mistake.

    Yes, maybe- maybe not. He may take  discount then as well, but I don't think I'd want to find out.

    Plus the info you gain on the prospects is not going to give you that much assurance on their long-term viability as MLB starters, unless something spectacular happens this year.

    Agreed, but if some of the prospects falter, then signing Lester becomes more imperative.

    [/QUOTE]


     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    He was an Ace calibur pitcher for 4 years. The Sox had all sorts of issues in 2012 and Jon had a down year, and he wasnt the only one. He had a solid start in 2013, had a 6 week stumble, then reverted to his usual TOTR performance and an ACE performance in the playoffs and WS. Lester has earned an extension. Theres no need to wait. Lester is a guy that should pitch well into his mid 30's. Lock him up now with an agreement, then make it official after game 1

    While I tend to agree, there's a long list of pitchers who should have pitched well into their mid 30's...

    but did not.

    [/QUOTE]


    Of course Im guessing, but with a good foundation. Hes never been injured, has an easy smooth delivery, is 6'4 230lbs so he can handle the workload. Thats all anyone has to go by, so of course i know its not guarenteed. Hes a pitcher I would sbe comfortable with signing until his age 35 year.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I have no problem extending Lester but if it gets over $115 mil or so and 6 years, I recommend that we wait to see how he does in 2014 before making that decision. And I think it may well be in the 6 years and $130 mil plus range. It could even be in the $150 mil range.

    [/QUOTE]


    Lester already said that he knows if he signs an extension it will be at a discount. Thats how it works. So I dont see him going north of 20M per and 5 years...maybe 6. He wont get 150M to sign an extension.

    Now, if they wait until after the year, I bet Lester tests the market. The discount comes with locking him up now and not letting him get to FA.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Of course Im guessing, but with a good foundation. Hes never been injured, has an easy smooth delivery, is 6'4 230lbs so he can handle the workload. Thats all anyone has to go by, so of course i know its not guarenteed. Hes a pitcher I would sbe comfortable with signing until his age 35 year.

    I agree. He has good mechanics and a strong health history (except for the cancer).

    You never get a chance to sign a 27 year old stud as a free agent, so it's a necessary risk. I do think Lester is less risky than someone like Anibal Sanchez, who had an injury history. Most pitchers have a bad stretch here or there, but Lester has been more consistent than almost any other starter over the past 6 years.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]I have not said I am against signing Lester- just pointing out the risks.[/QUOTE]

    I know that...I just like debating this stuff, really.

    I think there are significant risks no matter which way you go on Lester.

     

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]I have not said I am against signing Lester- just pointing out the risks.[/QUOTE]

    I know that...I just like debating this stuff, really.

    I think there are significant risks no matter which way you go on Lester.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    True, but with pitching, I think we need to take some risks, and Lester is as good a rsik as any. If he really will take a hometown discount, then to me, it's a no-brainer.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    There are risks to signing Lester that is for sure.  But what are the risks for not signing Lester?

    If we do not sign Lester, and we lose him, someone needs to fill his shoes.  We have some of the best pitching depth in the minors BUT odds are at least a few of those guys won't pan out or at the very least will not reach their ceilings as starters and end up in the bullpen.  Also they may be very good, but not as good and consistant as Lester was.

    Regardless, Boston is not going to go with an all homegrown rotation, they WILL go out to the open market and replace Lester.

    If Lester is worth +20  million a year, then to bring in a pitcher of his caliber we are going to have to spend the same amount to replace him.  If Lester is willing to take a discount then we will have to spend MORE! money to replace the value he brought to this club.

    If he is willing to take a discount, even if it is a modest one...it makes ALL the sense in the world to get a deal done. 

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    There are risks to signing Lester that is for sure.  But what are the risks for not signing Lester?

    If we do not sign Lester, and we lose him, someone needs to fill his shoes.  We have some of the best pitching depth in the minors BUT odds are at least a few of those guys won't pan out or at the very least will not reach their ceilings as starters and end up in the bullpen.  Also they may be very good, but not as good and consistant as Lester was.

    Regardless, Boston is not going to go with an all homegrown rotation, they WILL go out to the open market and replace Lester.

    If Lester is worth +20  million a year, then to bring in a pitcher of his caliber we are going to have to spend the same amount to replace him.  If Lester is willing to take a discount then we will have to spend MORE! money to replace the value he brought to this club.

    If he is willing to take a discount, even if it is a modest one...it makes ALL the sense in the world to get a deal done. 

    [/QUOTE]

    I agree.

    1) The very best SP'ers never make it to free agency.

    2) Any other pitcher we sign will be as risky or more so than Lester.

    3) The gain of a draft pick by letting Lester go and signing a non QO pitcher would be a huge risk.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    We will be losing Lester, Peavy and Dempster next winter, unless we extend one.

    Would gaining 1-2 comp picks for Lester and maybe Peavy be worth it, if we sign the 2-3 best non QO type SP'ers?

    This year, it would have been guys like Tanaka, Garza, Colon, Nolasco, Hudson, Kazmir, Haren, Hughes, or Feldman.

    Talk about high risk!

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    So, Arroyo gets $23.5M/2.

    He turns 37 in February.

    He's had over 199 IP for 9 straight years, but at his age, is that a good sign or a sign he is soon to be all used up?

    3 year numbers:

    35-34  4.19 in 603 IP (1.7 WAR which is 83rd out of 84 SP'ers with 400+ IP)

     

    Compare to Dempster ( 1 year in the AL) who turns 37 in May

    30-31  4.28 in 547 IP (6.9 WAR which is 47th out of 84)

    Arroyo       108 ERA- and 1.24 WHIP

    Dempster  105 ERA- and 1.37 WHIP

     

    I still think there is some GM out there that will take close to all of Dempster's 1 year remaining deal of $13.25.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    This from MLBTR on the Yanks summer plans:

     

    Yankees Plan To Spend Big On 2014-15 Int'l Market By  Steve Adams [February 7 at 8:04pm CST]

    In an effort to replenish a bleak farm system, the Yankees are preparing to "spend wildly" on the international free agent market this summer, industry sources tell Andrew Marchand and Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork.com. Kiley McDaniel of Scout.com reported in late December that New York was planning to incur penalties by spending $12MM to $15MM on the approaching 2014-15 international signing period. The new signing season, which kicks off (as always) on July 2, is believed by many to offer a particularly strong crop of talent.

    The Yankees are allotted just over $2MM to spend on international free agents this summer, but the ESPNNewYork.com duo reports that the club may spend a staggering $18MM in bonuses as they look to restock their minor league ranks with high-upside talent. Such an expenditure would come with the harshest of penalties laid out in the newest CBA; the Yankees would pay a 100 percent tax on their overage and would not be allowed to sign a player for more than $250K in the following international signing period. While those measures are undoubtedly harsh, they haven't stopped the Cubs and Rangers from spending more than $8MM each on international free agents during the current signing period.

    Marchand and Matthews continue by stating that one reason behind the potential spending spree is the fear of an eventual international draft that will remove such tactics as a possibility. While the international draft talks have reportedly been tabled until after the 2016 season, implementing such a big spending strategy in 2014-15 could potentially allow the Yankees to employ the tactic twice more before the draft might become a reality. (In my mind, seeing teams pursue such a tactic may only enhance the industry's desire for an international draft.)

    General manager Brian Cashman wouldn't comment on the team's spending plans, but he did go on record as saying that it is "certainly our prerogative" to spend more than the allotted amount. One member of the Yankees organization offered the following anonymous quote:

     

    "We consider it a strategic option. Whether we play it this year hasn't been decided. At some point I would imagine we would. It might make sense. One of the things that is looming is the [international] draft and once that happens, we have the same circumstances as in the U.S."

     

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