A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    So, Arroyo gets $23.5M/2.

    He turns 37 in February.

    He's had over 199 IP for 9 straight years, but at his age, is that a good sign or a sign he is soon to be all used up?

    3 year numbers:

    35-34  4.19 in 603 IP (1.7 WAR which is 83rd out of 84 SP'ers with 400+ IP)

    Compare to Dempster ( 1 year in the AL) who turns 37 in May

    30-31  4.28 in 547 IP (6.9 WAR which is 47th out of 84)

    Arroyo       108 ERA- and 1.24 WHIP

    Dempster  105 ERA- and 1.37 WHIP

    I still think there is some GM out there that will take close to all of Dempster's 1 year remaining deal of $13.25.

    I agree that Bronson Arroyo is a decent comp for Ryan Dempster and that Arroyo's reported contract may undermine my earlier contention that no team would pay Dempster's entire salary unless the Red Sox added a player of value.

    I still doubt the Red Sox would get much in return unless the Sox pay a chunk of Dempster's salary.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    So, Arroyo gets $23.5M/2.

    He turns 37 in February.

    He's had over 199 IP for 9 straight years, but at his age, is that a good sign or a sign he is soon to be all used up?

    3 year numbers:

    35-34  4.19 in 603 IP (1.7 WAR which is 83rd out of 84 SP'ers with 400+ IP)

     

    Compare to Dempster ( 1 year in the AL) who turns 37 in May

    30-31  4.28 in 547 IP (6.9 WAR which is 47th out of 84)

    Arroyo       108 ERA- and 1.24 WHIP

    Dempster  105 ERA- and 1.37 WHIP

     

    I still think there is some GM out there that will take close to all of Dempster's 1 year remaining deal of $13.25.




    i agree that there would be some GM that wouldnt mind Dempster at the back of their rotation and showing the young kids the ropes For about 10M for 1 year. He does have value to someone i bet.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    So, Arroyo gets $23.5M/2.

    He turns 37 in February.

    He's had over 199 IP for 9 straight years, but at his age, is that a good sign or a sign he is soon to be all used up?

    3 year numbers:

    35-34  4.19 in 603 IP (1.7 WAR which is 83rd out of 84 SP'ers with 400+ IP)

     

    Compare to Dempster ( 1 year in the AL) who turns 37 in May

    30-31  4.28 in 547 IP (6.9 WAR which is 47th out of 84)

    Arroyo       108 ERA- and 1.24 WHIP

    Dempster  105 ERA- and 1.37 WHIP

     

    I still think there is some GM out there that will take close to all of Dempster's 1 year remaining deal of $13.25.

     

    [/QUOTE]


     

    i agree that there would be some GM that wouldnt mind Dempster at the back of their rotation and showing the young kids the ropes For about 10M for 1 year. He does have value to someone i bet.

    [/QUOTE]

    That's what I have been saying, at most we may have to pay $2-3M out of his $13.25 owed. Freeing up $10M would give us an enormous boost in payroll flexibility either for now or mid season.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    So, Arroyo gets $23.5M/2.

    He turns 37 in February.

    He's had over 199 IP for 9 straight years, but at his age, is that a good sign or a sign he is soon to be all used up?

    3 year numbers:

    35-34  4.19 in 603 IP (1.7 WAR which is 83rd out of 84 SP'ers with 400+ IP)

     

    Compare to Dempster ( 1 year in the AL) who turns 37 in May

    30-31  4.28 in 547 IP (6.9 WAR which is 47th out of 84)

    Arroyo       108 ERA- and 1.24 WHIP

    Dempster  105 ERA- and 1.37 WHIP

     

    I still think there is some GM out there that will take close to all of Dempster's 1 year remaining deal of $13.25.

     

    [/QUOTE]


     

    i agree that there would be some GM that wouldnt mind Dempster at the back of their rotation and showing the young kids the ropes For about 10M for 1 year. He does have value to someone i bet.

    [/QUOTE]

    That's what I have been saying, at most we may have to pay $2-3M out of his $13.25 owed. Freeing up $10M would give us an enormous boost in payroll flexibility either for now or mid season.

    [/QUOTE]


    If they do do that, I dont think they will be so worried about whats coming back in return as much as they are worried about shedding some payroll. Of course the more $$ they eat, the better the return.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    So, Arroyo gets $23.5M/2.

    He turns 37 in February.

    He's had over 199 IP for 9 straight years, but at his age, is that a good sign or a sign he is soon to be all used up?

    3 year numbers:

    35-34  4.19 in 603 IP (1.7 WAR which is 83rd out of 84 SP'ers with 400+ IP)

    Compare to Dempster ( 1 year in the AL) who turns 37 in May

    30-31  4.28 in 547 IP (6.9 WAR which is 47th out of 84)

    Arroyo       108 ERA- and 1.24 WHIP

    Dempster  105 ERA- and 1.37 WHIP

    I still think there is some GM out there that will take close to all of Dempster's 1 year remaining deal of $13.25.

    I agree that Bronson Arroyo is a decent comp for Ryan Dempster and that Arroyo's reported contract may undermine my earlier contention that no team would pay Dempster's entire salary unless the Red Sox added a player of value.

    I still doubt the Red Sox would get much in return unless the Sox pay a chunk of Dempster's salary.

    [/QUOTE]

    I agree, and I have never said we'd get much in return... just the salary space.

    I guess we could trade him to some team looking to dump a salary of their own at a position we need.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    So, Arroyo gets $23.5M/2.

    He turns 37 in February.

    He's had over 199 IP for 9 straight years, but at his age, is that a good sign or a sign he is soon to be all used up?

    3 year numbers:

    35-34  4.19 in 603 IP (1.7 WAR which is 83rd out of 84 SP'ers with 400+ IP)

     

    Compare to Dempster ( 1 year in the AL) who turns 37 in May

    30-31  4.28 in 547 IP (6.9 WAR which is 47th out of 84)

    Arroyo       108 ERA- and 1.24 WHIP

    Dempster  105 ERA- and 1.37 WHIP

     

    I still think there is some GM out there that will take close to all of Dempster's 1 year remaining deal of $13.25.

     

    [/QUOTE]


     

    i agree that there would be some GM that wouldnt mind Dempster at the back of their rotation and showing the young kids the ropes For about 10M for 1 year. He does have value to someone i bet.

    [/QUOTE]

    Dempster could be a middle of rotation starter (3 or 4 slot) for some contending or near contending clubs. 

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I agree that Bronson Arroyo is a decent comp for Ryan Dempster and that Arroyo's reported contract may undermine my earlier contention that no team would pay Dempster's entire salary unless the Red Sox added a player of value.

     

    6.9 to 1.7 WAR over the last 3 years. I'd think you would believe Dempster is worth way more than Arroyo. You usually use WAR as your main quage of value.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Heh, if we can get salary relief only for Dempster, even $10 mil alone, it's probably worth it. We may not chose to do that though unless we need the relief to stay under the cap. We are under the cap now. If we have to trade for a player to cover an injury it could be that Dempster is that necessary piece. I would think he would be better for a NL team also.

    It makes sense to do it late Spring training or early season though I would think. Before the All star break. Who knows, maybe he starts out well and we keep him. Crazier things have happened.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Heh, if we can get salary relief only for Dempster, even $10 mil alone, it's probably worth it. We may not chose to do that though unless we need the relief to stay under the cap. We are under the cap now. If we have to trade for a player to cover an injury it could be that Dempster is that necessary piece. I would think he would be better for a NL team also.

    It makes sense to do it late Spring training or early season though I would think. Before the All star break. Who knows, maybe he starts out well and we keep him. Crazier things have happened.

    [/QUOTE]

    1) The earlier we trade him the more money we save.

    2) We will need something at some point, so why not free up the budget space now?

    3) My guess is the first contending team with a major injury to a SP, will call Ben first.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    We are under the cap now. If we have to trade for a player to cover an injury it could be that Dempster is that necessary piece...

    Maybe not. If Sizemore or other reach their bonus clauses, we could be over....

     

    2014 Red Sox Player Payroll Budget

    (Luxury Tax Dollars)

    $ 16.5M Lackey (then 1 year at league min)

    $16M  Napoli (1 year then FA)

    $14.5M Peavy (then FA)

    $13.75M Pedroia

    $13.25M Dempster (then FA)

    $ 13M Ortiz (then FA)

    $13M Victorino (to ’15)

    $13M Lester (then FA)

    $8.25M AJ P (then FA)

    $7.5M Buchholz (to ’15, then club options at $13M & $13.5M)

    $5M Gomes (then FA)

    $4.75M Mujica (to '15, then FA)

    $4.25M Uehara (option is vested)

    $3.125M Breslow ($4M club option in ’15 w. $0.1M buyout)

    $3.1M Ross (then FA)

    $2.15 Badenhop (then FA)

    $1.4M Carp

    $1.3M Herrera (then 1 arb)

    $1.275M Tazawa (then 2 arbs)

    $0.75M Sizemore (+$1.25 Roster bonuses & 4M performance bones)

     

    Sub TOTAL: ~$157M 

     

    Estimated Arbitration (2013 salary): $2M

    ~$2.0M  Miller 3 of 3 ($1.48M)

     

    Estimated Pre-Arb Total: $12M

    Doubront, Nava,  Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Snyder, Webster, Bradley, Bogaerts, Brentz, Britton, Butler, Cecchini, de la Rosa, Hassan, Holt, Vazquez, Wilson, Workman, Wright

     

    Total Estimated 2014 Red Sox Payroll Budget:$171M 

    Add the player pension fee of about $10.8M and the $3.9M payment to the Dodgers... 

     

    Total Luxury Limit Budget for 2014: $186M

     

    This leaves about $3M to spend and still be below the limit,

    assuming Sizemore and others do not reach his bonus

    qualifications..

     

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Red Sox sign reliever Chris Resop to minor league deal

     

     

     

    The Red Sox have signed right-handed pitcher  Chris Resop to a minor league contract,  reports Matt Eddy of  Baseball America. Resop is something of a journeyman, as the eight-year major league veteran joins his sixth professional organization. Eddy also reported that infielder  Tony Thomas, who spent the last three years in the Red Sox system, has inked a minor league deal with the Minnesota Twins.    Resop, 31, has 235 major league appearances in his career, all coming out of the bullpen. A fourth-round pick in the 2001 draft, Resop reached the majors with the Florida Marlins in 2005. The bulk of his major league success was as a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates, when he posted a 3.88 ERA in 162 1/3 innings between 2010 and 2012, striking out 149.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

     

    Wow, so Ellsbury will be making around $9 million more per year than Pedroia.  Pedroia and Weaver of the Angels are only a few players who gave their teams a hometown discount.  Props to them!!!   Laughing

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Props to them!!!

    Why are you so happy that Pedey is making henry richer than he already is?

    If hin taking a home town discount loered ticket prices, I'd be happy, but we all know that's not happening.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Moon, when do change to  "Part 2"?  Before or after ST?

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jcri's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Moon, when do change to  "Part 2"?  Before or after ST?

    [/QUOTE]

    I was thinking of doing it soo, since I think our roster is pretty well set. Maybe this weekend.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Props to them!!!

    Why are you so happy that Pedey is making henry richer than he already is?

    If hin taking a home town discount loered ticket prices, I'd be happy, but we all know that's not happening.

    [/QUOTE]

    I don't think the home town discounts make Henry richer or lower ticket prices.  What they do is allow us to have a better team for the same money.  Henry is obviously still willing to spend up to the luxury tax threshold - can we really knock that? 

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Props to them!!!

    Why are you so happy that Pedey is making henry richer than he already is?

    If hin taking a home town discount loered ticket prices, I'd be happy, but we all know that's not happening.

    [/QUOTE]

    I don't think the home town discounts make Henry richer or lower ticket prices.  What they do is allow us to have a better team for the same money.  Henry is obviously still willing to spend up to the luxury tax threshold - can we really knock that? 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Good points. The budget would likely stay the same no matter what we paid Pedey, so the discount means we can spend more on other players.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Props to them!!!

    Why are you so happy that Pedey is making henry richer than he already is?

    If hin taking a home town discount loered ticket prices, I'd be happy, but we all know that's not happening.

    [/QUOTE]

    Hello moonslav59   Laughing

    I'm happy that Pedroia was willing to take a discount to stay in Boston.  I'm sure another team would have offered more money.  But Predroia decided to stay.  

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Props to them!!!

    Why are you so happy that Pedey is making henry richer than he already is?

    If hin taking a home town discount loered ticket prices, I'd be happy, but we all know that's not happening.

    [/QUOTE]

    Hello moonslav59   Laughing

    I'm happy that Pedroia was willing to take a discount to stay in Boston.  I'm sure another team would have offered more money.  But Predroia decided to stay.  

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Pedey may represent the greatest chance on the team of a big gain in OPS from 2013.

    We may need it, since chances are someone or more than one of our players are likely to drop off some from 2013.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Props to them!!!

    Why are you so happy that Pedey is making henry richer than he already is?

    If hin taking a home town discount loered ticket prices, I'd be happy, but we all know that's not happening.

    [/QUOTE]

    Hello moonslav59   Laughing

    I'm happy that Pedroia was willing to take a discount to stay in Boston.  I'm sure another team would have offered more money.  But Predroia decided to stay.  

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Pedey may represent the greatest chance on the team of a big gain in OPS from 2013.

    We may need it, since chances are someone or more than one of our players are likely to drop off some from 2013.

    [/QUOTE]

    I think there is a good chance to see an increase from SS as well with Bogaerts.  Possibly even at 3B depending on which direction WMB's goes but I think he can at least push....I suspect Napoli can at least replicate what he gave us last year.

    I'm more concerned with what we get in the outfield, that is where our depth seems to be thing.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Props to them!!!

    Why are you so happy that Pedey is making henry richer than he already is?

    If hin taking a home town discount loered ticket prices, I'd be happy, but we all know that's not happening.

    [/QUOTE]

    Hello moonslav59   Laughing

    I'm happy that Pedroia was willing to take a discount to stay in Boston.  I'm sure another team would have offered more money.  But Predroia decided to stay.  

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Pedey may represent the greatest chance on the team of a big gain in OPS from 2013.

    We may need it, since chances are someone or more than one of our players are likely to drop off some from 2013.

    [/QUOTE]

    I think there is a good chance to see an increase from SS as well with Bogaerts.  Possibly even at 3B depending on which direction WMB's goes but I think he can at least push....I suspect Napoli can at least replicate what he gave us last year.

    I'm more concerned with what we get in the outfield, that is where our depth seems to be thing.

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes, there's a few positions with high potential for big gains, but Pedey has done it already, so it's bit more believable, especially when you consider he is still in mid-prime.

    Another interesting case could be made for Napoli. He has had a pretty unigue career trend: every third year is a big one. This is year 3.

    OPS   Year

    .815  2006

    .794  2007

    .960  2008

    .842  2009

    .784  2010

    1.046  2011

    .812  2012

    .842  2013

    ____  2014

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Why anyone would not admire success is beyond me.

    Life is cruel.  Some people make more money than others.  Does that make a person bad or unjustly greedy?

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from J-BAY. Show J-BAY's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Pete Abraham ‏@PeteAbe   12h

    New arrivals to #RedSox camp include John Lackey and @CraigBreslow

     

    Pete Abraham ‏@PeteAbe  10h

    Another shot of Buchholz. Says his shoulder has fully healed. #redsox pic.twitter.com/h3UHvQKmpE

     

     

     

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Props to them!!!

    Why are you so happy that Pedey is making henry richer than he already is?

    If hin taking a home town discount loered ticket prices, I'd be happy, but we all know that's not happening.

    [/QUOTE]

    Hello moonslav59   Laughing

    I'm happy that Pedroia was willing to take a discount to stay in Boston.  I'm sure another team would have offered more money.  But Predroia decided to stay.  

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Pedey may represent the greatest chance on the team of a big gain in OPS from 2013.

    We may need it, since chances are someone or more than one of our players are likely to drop off some from 2013.

    [/QUOTE]

    I think there is a good chance to see an increase from SS as well with Bogaerts.  Possibly even at 3B depending on which direction WMB's goes but I think he can at least push....I suspect Napoli can at least replicate what he gave us last year.

    I'm more concerned with what we get in the outfield, that is where our depth seems to be thing.

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes, there's a few positions with high potential for big gains, but Pedey has done it already, so it's bit more believable, especially when you consider he is still in mid-prime.

    Another interesting case could be made for Napoli. He has had a pretty unigue career trend: every third year is a big one. This is year 3.

    OPS   Year

    .815  2006

    .794  2007

    .960  2008

    .842  2009

    .784  2010

    1.046  2011

    .812  2012

    .842  2013

    ____  2014

    [/QUOTE]

    I think one year removed from catcher, he could be more comfortable as a full time first baseman.  Of course then again, the way he played the position last year one could argue he handled the full time transition with complete ease.  I think there is a very good chance we get a least the same level of production from him next year.

    The slumps can be a headache at times, but overall he is a very valuable player.  One thing I find very interesting is that Mike Napoli led ALL of baseball with pitches seen per plate appearance last year.  So even when he was slumping, he made pitchers work.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I think there is a good chance to see an increase from SS as well with Bogaerts.  Possibly even at 3B depending on which direction WMB's goes but I think he can at least push....I suspect Napoli can at least replicate what he gave us last year.

    I'm more concerned with what we get in the outfield, that is where our depth seems to be thing.

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes, there's a few positions with high potential for big gains, but Pedey has done it already, so it's bit more believable, especially when you consider he is still in mid-prime.

    Another interesting case could be made for Napoli. He has had a pretty unigue career trend: every third year is a big one. This is year 3.

    OPS   Year

    .815  2006

    .794  2007

    .960  2008

    .842  2009

    .784  2010

    1.046  2011

    .812  2012

    .842  2013

    ____  2014

    [/QUOTE]

    I think one year removed from catcher, he could be more comfortable as a full time first baseman.  Of course then again, the way he played the position last year one could argue he handled the full time transition with complete ease.  I think there is a very good chance we get a least the same level of production from him next year. 

    The slumps can be a headache at times, but overall he is a very valuable player.  One thing I find very interesting is that Mike Napoli led ALL of baseball with pitches seen per plate appearance last year.  So even when he was slumping, he made pitchers work.

    I'm expecting about the same from Naps as 2013, but am thinking he may do better. I guess he may do worse, but I don't think so.

    We may do better at SS, but remember, Iggy gave us some good numbers last year, and Drew was a top 6 SS by WAR. He had the 4th best OPS by a SS with 500+ PAs in 2013. I love Bogey, but I think we may be asking a lot for his first year. As a team, we had the 3rd best SS OPS at .765. Sure, I think Bogey can beat .765, but I'm not counting on a big differential.

    Middy represents a big chance for a huge plus. Cecchini could help bring the 3B numbers up a ton as well.

    I still think a true platoon of nava and Gomes in LF might end up with another near team-leading positional OPS in 2014.

    Here's a look at the 2013 positional OPS:

    .958 DH

    .841 1B

    .790  LF

    .787   C

    .786  2B

    .786  RF

    .774  CF

    .771  SS

    .683  3B

     

     

     

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