A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

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    A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Let the games begin...

    The Sox have a strong and deep roster and should be strong contenders this year barring major injuries or several minor ones. Spring training games have begun, so here's a look at some information to be discussed and debated. Please try to keep this thread about the Sox and baseball related to the Sox.

    2014 Non-Roster Invitees:

    Pitchers: Barnes, Celestino, Cordero, Ely, Hill, Hinojosa, Layne, Mijares, Owens, Ramirez, & Villareal

    Catchers: Swihart

    Infielders: Marrero, McCoy, Meneses, Shaw, & Snyder 

    Outfield: Brown

     

    Service Time: based on 172 days = 1 season (season. days) under 2 years

    1.157 de la Rosa

    1.118 Middlebrooks

    1.040 Lavarnway

    0.078 Holt

    0.077 Britton

    0.056 Bradley

    0.051 Workman

    0.043 Webster

    0.041 Bogaerts

    0.030 Wright

     

    Players with Options Remaining:

    1 Nava, Middlebrooks, Tazawa, Britton, Lavarnway

    2 Webster, de la Rosa, Bradley, Herrera, Wilson, Wright, Butler, Vazquez, Hassan

    3 Bogaerts, Workman, Ranaudo, Cecchini, BrentzHolt

     

    2014 depth chart: (I made a few minor adjustments from soxprospects.com):

    Catcher:

    Pierzynski, Ross, Lavarnway, Butler, Vazquez, Spring, Brenly, Hernandez, Swihart

    First base:

    Napoli, Carp, Snyder, T Shaw

    Second base:

    Pedroia, Holt, McCoy, Dent, Betts, Coyle, W Rijo

    Shortstop:

    Bogaerts, Herrera, Roof, Meneses, Marrero, Natoli, Vinicio, Lin

    Third base:

    Middlebrooks, Rivero, Cecchini, Welch... Devers

    Left Field:

    Nava, Gomes, Vitek, Heller

    Center Field:

    Bradley, Sizemore, C Brown, S Cousins, Henry, Wilkerson, Ramos...Margot

    Right Field:

    Victorino, Hassan, Brentz, Linares, Hissey, Johnson, de la Cruz

     

    Staring Pitcher:

    Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Peavy, Doubront, Capuano

    Webster, Wright, J Ely, Ranaudo, Barnes, Owens, M Pena, Hinojosa

    Johnson, L Diaz, Stroup, Cuevas, Augliera, Kukuk, Light...

    S Gomez, Stankiewicz, Buttrey, Callahan, McGrath, Littrell, T Ball

     

    Swing Men:

    de la Rosa, Workman, Britton, Couch, Hernandez, Kehrt, McCarthy

    Quevedo, Kraus, Taveras, S Meredes

     

    Relief Pitcher:

    Uehara, Mujica, Tazawa, Breslow, Miller, Badenhop

    Villarreal, R Hill, T Layne, Wilson, Mijares, Cordero, Resop, Watanabe

    Valdez, N Ramirez, Celestino, Balcom-Miller, Kurcz, Ruiz, D Diaz, M Price

     

     40 Man Roster and Luxury Tax Numbers:

    $ 16.5M Lackey (then 1 year at league min)

    $16M  Napoli (1 year then FA)

    $14.5M Peavy (then FA)

    $13.75M Pedroia

    $ 13M Ortiz (then FA)

    $13M Victorino (to ’15)

    $13M Lester (then FA)

    $8.25M AJ P (then FA)

    $7.5M Buchholz (to ’15, then club options at $13M & $13.5M)

    $5M Gomes (then FA)

    $4.75M Mujica (to '15, then FA)

    $4.25M Uehara (option is vested)

    $3.125M Breslow ($4M club option in ’15 w. $0.1M buyout)

    $3.1M Ross (then FA)

    $2.25M Capuano (then FA)

    $2.15 Badenhop (then FA)

    $1.9M Miller (then FA)

    $1.4M Carp

    $1.3M Herrera (then 1 arb)

    $1.275M Tazawa (then 2 arbs)

    $0.75M Sizemore (+$1.25 Roster bonuses & 4M performance bones)

     

    Sub TOTAL: ~$148M 

     

    Estimated Pre-Arb  Player Total: $12M

    Doubront, Nava,  Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Snyder, Webster, Bradley, Bogaerts, Brentz, Britton, Butler, Ceccini, de la Rosa, Hassan, Holt, Vazquez, Wilson, Workman, Wright

     

    Total Estimated 2014 Red Sox Payroll Budget:$160M 

    Add the player pension fee of about $10.8M and the $3.9M payment to the Dodgers... 

     

    Total Luxury Limit Budget for 2014: ~$175M

     

     

    This leaves about $14M to spend and still be below the 

     

    limit,assuming Sizemore and others do not reach their

     

    bonus qualifications.

     

    Some big questions going into 2014:

    1) Can we overcome the loss of Ellsbury, Salty, and Drew?

    2) Can we rely on 3 young players in key roles (Bogey, Middy & Bradley)?

    3) Can our health continue on the right track (similar to 2013)?

    4) Can our staff continue the success of 2013?

    5) Can our offense remain in the top 3?

    6) Who will we draft in this year's strong & deep draft?

    7) Which prospects will earn a shot this year & which will shine?

    8) Can the vets repeat or improve on their 2014 numbers?

     

    Feel free to discuss anything else related to the Red Sox, but again, let's try to keep the personal attacks to a bare minimum. Keep it real.

     

    GO RED SOX !

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Copied from Part I...

    jidgef's first ST Reports:

    Today we watched the entire first game and the best moments came when a Northeastern lefty came in and fanned Pedey and Papi back to back, and then when they took the lead. It's hard to get a grasp of how well the pitchers are throwing against college kids, but Workman looked sharp as his off-speed pitches moved at least a foot down and are just unfair to throw at that kind of lineup. Owens had control issues and Noe Ramirez looked like an A ball pitcher. The underhanded Japanese pitcher is wierd, the most extreme submarine delivery I've ever seen, but with NO velocity. Pawtucket depth at best. The offense looked very shaky but Lavarnway and Bradley hit shots. Middlebrooks batted twice and saw two pitches, not what I was hoping to see from him.

    We only stayed for three innings of the BC game and Ruby looked very sharp, like a man pitching against boys, but with great zip and great control. The run we saw scored on a double to right that should have been a routine fly out except the BC rightfielder forgot he was playing against grownups. But he did get to chat with the infielders between pitches. Barnes threw a very solid inning as well.

     

    Other observations....Sizemore looks like an artist's rendering of what the perfect baseball player should look like. At the risk of sounding wierd, he simply has a great body for baseball. He hit a shot to left, his opposite field, that was an out but pinned the leftfielder against the wall. But the most interesting aspect of the out was that Sizemore was already at second base when the fielder caught the ball. Bogey and Pedey look like a great double-play combo. Lavarnway is looking less and less like a major league catcher to me, just doesn't throw well enough nor release quickly enough, but his bat will help some team somewhere.

    ____________________________________

    ...all that I'm hearing is that Bradley starts the year in center. Today Sizemore played left. I don't know how Sizemore's contract is worded, but I would bet that if he can, contract-wise, start the season in AAA then that's what he'll do. He's got lots of at-bats to catch up on

    ____________________________________

    A few comments on what I just read....I will be shocked if Middlebrooks, Bradley and Bogey are not all in the starting lineup at third, cf and short repectively. The team has too much invested in the trio in terms of time, money and losing Ellsbury in favor of Bradley to not let the trio show what they can do. I believe Sizemore, unless he looks absolutely spectacular, will begin the season in AAA to get regular at bats which he hasn't had in more than two years. I also would not be surprised to see them deal a catching prospect, but I think it would either be Butler, or more likely Lavarnway who is dealt. I don't believe they will be dealt for a shortstop because that will be Bogey, with Herrara in reserve.

    I'll post more later, but it was a truly awful game today at Jet Blue. Ranaudo looked great, our offense was in a coma and our pitchers could not throw stikes and when they did they got hammered. Much more detail after dinner.

    ____________________________________

    Today's report from the fort...The day began with a very proud moment for this intrepid reporter as the coveted mayor's trophy, the real highlight of the 2013 season, was formally presented before the game as a result of the Sox beating the Twins in Spring Training last year. There wasn't a dry eye in the house!

    The team did introduce every one in the organization before the game. The biggest ovations went to Farrell, Uehara, Pedroia and of course Ortiz. It was a nice moment with all three World Series trophies on the field at the time. Then Anthony Renaudo went out and threw two perfect innings and looked very good. The Cuban pitcher Dailer Hinajosa (sp?), pronounced Dan Jones, had a solid third and a dismal fourth, which he didn't finish. I think he left with a whiplash injury as balls were flying by him at a frightening pace. He was followed by Andrew Miller who walked the house, gave up a sac fly, then left so someone not even listed on the program could give up a bases clearing double. The scoreboard actually listed the Red sox pitcher as "unknown". Eventually they brought in another guy not listed on any program but who's uniform said he was Rebot or something like that and he tried to set the all time spring training record for time between pitches. When I finally came to he had allowed a couple runs on about fourty pitches with about a minute and a half between each pitch.

    Offensively things were not much better. Napoli got their only two hits in the first five innings. Brentz hit a towering home run but played rightfield like it was mined. He commited one error that allowed a run and has no clue what the term "cut-off man" comes from, derivation or definition, so everyone who singled to right got a free pass to second base.

    A followup to yesterday's game that I forgot to mention, Bradley got two hits, one of which should have helped keep a rally going as it followed a Lavarnway single with no outs. But Lavarnway was plunked by the line drive so he was out and Bradley got credit for a single. A major-leaguer should be able to avoid a line drive, especially since there was not a hit and run or steal on. The funniest part about it was the firstbaseman picking it up and touching the bag and Bradley thought he was out. The college umpires called him out and I felt like only a handfull of people in the building knew the rule, which is the hit runner is out, the ball is dead, and the batter gets credit for a base hit. Eventually the umpires figured it out and Bradley got his second hit. But man is Lavarnway slow!

    _____________________________________

    Thanks jid.

    Keep 'em coming!

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Some big questions going into 2014:

    1) Can we overcome the loss of Ellsbury, Salty, and Drew?



    I would narrow that down to Ellsbury and Drew, because I think Pierzynski is a capable veteran replacement for Salty.  But the replacements for Ellsbury and Drew are, of course, unproven kids.

    I was in the camp that wanted Drew back with Bogey going to third.  But I'm fine with what Cherington did.  He decided to give the reins to Bogey at short and Middy at third.  They obviously have a certain amount of confidence in Middy and hopefully he will validate it.

    Payroll-wise, having 3 kids for starters will obviously be a big help!  

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Some big questions going into 2014:

    1) Can we overcome the loss of Ellsbury, Salty, and Drew?



    I would narrow that down to Ellsbury and Drew, because I think Pierzynski is a capable veteran replacement for Salty.  But the replacements for Ellsbury and Drew are, of course, unproven kids.

    I was in the camp that wanted Drew back with Bogey going to third.  But I'm fine with what Cherington did.  He decided to give the reins to Bogey at short and Middy at third.  They obviously have a certain amount of confidence in Middy and hopefully he will validate it.

    Payroll-wise, having 3 kids for starters will obviously be a big help!  

     



    I think AJ and a heaalthy Ross will do fine, but it is still a question mark going into 2014. Both are getting old, and replacing Salty's .804 OPS will not be easy. Defensively, we should get better.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I think Salty will have trouble replicating the 804 OPS himself.  His BABip lat year was 372, 50 points higher than his career average.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Baseball Reference has a detailed look at each team's payroll, including this one for the Red Sox:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2013-payroll-salaries.shtml

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I'm an advocate of abermetric stat like BABIP, but I think it can't be evaluated alone.  The theory is all players will have a BABIP close to .300 and if you are below it you may be unlucky and vis versa, however some players can consistently keep their BABIP well above .300

    Take a player like Derek Jeter for example; Jeter has a lifetime .353 batting average on balls in play.

    I do however think hitters will remain around their mean, so to say that Salty's BABIP was higher than his career norm would suggest that he was lucky last year.  Or it would suggest that he had become a better hitter.

    If a hitter is hitting more line drives and/or homeruns then they are going to get more hits and their BABIP should increase not because they are lucky but because they are seeing the ball better. Salty hit a LD about 6% of the time more than his career normal last year.

    Now I do think Salty had his best year last year, and I do think he improved at the plate, and I don't think it was 100% luck.  I do agree that his BABIP should regress to some extent, but to be fair....if we expect his BABIP to come down to a career mean then we should also expect his HR/FB% to increase as well.  When his BABIP was much lower, he was also hitting a lot of HR's.

    My Guesss is Salty will probably look more like he did in 2012 over the next couple years than he did last year; which is still a good player who adds value.  Given their ages, Salty might be a much better player than AJ this year as well.  In hindsight I would have offered Salty the Q.O. and not extended Drew the Q.O. perhaps I'm wrong, but if Drew signs after the draft then it definitely would have been the wiser choice.....again this is in hindsight.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I'm an advocate of abermetric stat like BABIP, but I think it can't be evaluated alone.  The theory is all players will have a BABIP close to .300 and if you are below it you may be unlucky and vis versa, however some players can consistently keep their BABIP well above .300

    Take a player like Derek Jeter for example; Jeter has a lifetime .353 batting average on balls in play.

    I do however think hitters will remain around their mean, so to say that Salty's BABIP was higher than his career norm would suggest that he was lucky last year.  Or it would suggest that he had become a better hitter.

    Salty had about the same amount of ABs in 2012 but with about 20 more hits. He also had about 20 more line drives in 2013. I know that does not account for the whole increase in BAbip, but I'm sure it had something to do with it.

    His large increase in LD% shows, to me, that he was hitting the ball better in 2013 than 2012. I'm sure some luck was involved, and maybe the .804 OPS was inflated somewhat, but it wasn't all luck.

     

    If a hitter is hitting ore line drives and/or homeruns then they are going to get more hits and their BABIP should increase not because they are lucky but because they are seeing the ball better. Salty hit a LD about 6% of the time more than his career normal last year.

    Yes, and less HRs.

     

    Now I do think Salty had his best year last year, and I do think he improved at the plate, and I don't think it was 100% luck.  I do agree that his BABIP should regress to some extent, but to be fair....if we expect his BABIP to come down to a career mean then we should also expect his HR/FB% to increase as well.  When his BABIP was much lower, he was also hitting a lot of HR's.

    Agreed.

    My Guesss is Salty will probably look more like he did in 2012 over the next couple years than he did last year; which is still a good player who adds value.  Given their ages, Salty might be a much better player than AJ this year as well.  In hindsight I would have offered Salty the Q.O. and not extended Drew the Q.O. perhaps I'm wrong, but if Drew signs after the draft then it definitely would have been the wiser choice.....again this is in hindsight.

    I'm thinking he will look like somewhere between 2012 and 2013, but with park adjustments may look worse.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Some big questions going into 2014:

    1) Can we overcome the loss of Ellsbury, Salty, and Drew?



    I would narrow that down to Ellsbury and Drew, because I think Pierzynski is a capable veteran replacement for Salty.  But the replacements for Ellsbury and Drew are, of course, unproven kids.

    I was in the camp that wanted Drew back with Bogey going to third.  But I'm fine with what Cherington did.  He decided to give the reins to Bogey at short and Middy at third.  They obviously have a certain amount of confidence in Middy and hopefully he will validate it.

    Payroll-wise, having 3 kids for starters will obviously be a big help!  

     




    Have to wonder if dare I say we are in a "bridge year"? Having won an unexpected WS last year do we dare say this has allowed the RS to better position themselves for 2015 and beyond. While repeating is difficult in any league, could the RS do it this year? IMO everything would have to go about as well as last year and then some. The biggest loss will be Jacoby, JBJ will be fine defensively but I hate to say it the RS will really need him to develope offensively and become the leadoff hitter [by June 1]. We really don't have a lead off hitter on the team, if JBJ can get on base anywhere near as well as he did in minors and college and would be welcome addition atop the order, he won't steal the bases Ells did but could get on base more.

    AJ will be fine replacing Salty. He will be a more consistent hitter than Salty who was very streaky. Should be an upgrade defensively, that plus the fact that Ross should get into more games this year the team is much improved behind the plate defensively.

    Bogey should be fine at SS. While he won't be as good as Drew was last yr defensively, he could be a good upgrade offensively. This should balance out, but for the future this is the right move to make. Need to find out at some point if he can handle SS defensively.

    IMO WMB will bounce back this year. While I'm not going w/ the 30+hr's 100rbi type yr. Would be happy w/ 25 hr's 80+rbi's 330 obp would be a good for me.

    The bullpen will be improved even if Koji comes back to earth a bit. Mujica and Badenhop give RS some depth from RH side which we lacked 2nd half last year, and w/ Andrew Miller back healthy pen should be very much a strength and for me what will put them in the playoffs.

    Really believe that a Workman or Raunado could become a fulltime member of the rotation by end of this year w/ Owens/Barnes becoming on the cusp pitchers as Workman did last yr.

    While I can see RS making playoffs w/ about 91-94 wins, I think Tigers are going to WS this year only to lose to Cards. But then again I thought the RS would have a chance to make playoffs last yr but would lose in WC game. Maybe a repeat isn't so far fetched if everything goes our way AGAIN?

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I'm an advocate of abermetric stat like BABIP, but I think it can't be evaluated alone.  The theory is all players will have a BABIP close to .300 and if you are below it you may be unlucky and vis versa, however some players can consistently keep their BABIP well above .300

    Take a player like Derek Jeter for example; Jeter has a lifetime .353 batting average on balls in play.

    I do however think hitters will remain around their mean, so to say that Salty's BABIP was higher than his career norm would suggest that he was lucky last year.  Or it would suggest that he had become a better hitter.

    Salty had about the same amount of ABs in 2012 but with about 20 more hits. He also had about 20 more line drives in 2013. I know that does not account for the whole increase in BAbip, but I'm sure it had something to do with it.

    His large increase in LD% shows, to me, that he was hitting the ball better in 2013 than 2012. I'm sure some luck was involved, and maybe the .804 OPS was inflated somewhat, but it wasn't all luck.

     

    If a hitter is hitting ore line drives and/or homeruns then they are going to get more hits and their BABIP should increase not because they are lucky but because they are seeing the ball better. Salty hit a LD about 6% of the time more than his career normal last year.

    Yes, and less HRs.

     

    Now I do think Salty had his best year last year, and I do think he improved at the plate, and I don't think it was 100% luck.  I do agree that his BABIP should regress to some extent, but to be fair....if we expect his BABIP to come down to a career mean then we should also expect his HR/FB% to increase as well.  When his BABIP was much lower, he was also hitting a lot of HR's.

    Agreed.

    My Guesss is Salty will probably look more like he did in 2012 over the next couple years than he did last year; which is still a good player who adds value.  Given their ages, Salty might be a much better player than AJ this year as well.  In hindsight I would have offered Salty the Q.O. and not extended Drew the Q.O. perhaps I'm wrong, but if Drew signs after the draft then it definitely would have been the wiser choice.....again this is in hindsight.

    I'm thinking he will look like somewhere between 2012 and 2013, but with park adjustments may look worse.



    I think he will be somewhere between that as well, which given his durability makes him a good asset to any team.  He will never be among the best catchers in MLB, but he will be a good starter for a few more years.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Have to wonder if dare I say we are in a "bridge year"? Having won an unexpected WS last year do we dare say this has allowed the RS to better position themselves for 2015 and beyond. While repeating is difficult in any league, could the RS do it this year? IMO everything would have to go about as well as last year and then some. The biggest loss will be Jacoby, JBJ will be fine defensively but I hate to say it the RS will really need him to develope offensively and become the leadoff hitter [by June 1]. We really don't have a lead off hitter on the team, if JBJ can get on base anywhere near as well as he did in minors and college and would be welcome addition atop the order, he won't steal the bases Ells did but could get on base more.

    AJ will be fine replacing Salty. He will be a more consistent hitter than Salty who was very streaky. Should be an upgrade defensively, that plus the fact that Ross should get into more games this year the team is much improved behind the plate defensively.

    Bogey should be fine at SS. While he won't be as good as Drew was last yr defensively, he could be a good upgrade offensively. This should balance out, but for the future this is the right move to make. Need to find out at some point if he can handle SS defensively.

    IMO WMB will bounce back this year. While I'm not going w/ the 30+hr's 100rbi type yr. Would be happy w/ 25 hr's 80+rbi's 330 obp would be a good for me.

    The bullpen will be improved even if Koji comes back to earth a bit. Mujica and Badenhop give RS some depth from RH side which we lacked 2nd half last year, and w/ Andrew Miller back healthy pen should be very much a strength and for me what will put them in the playoffs.

    Really believe that a Workman or Raunado could become a fulltime member of the rotation by end of this year w/ Owens/Barnes becoming on the cusp pitchers as Workman did last yr.

    While I can see RS making playoffs w/ about 91-94 wins, I think Tigers are going to WS this year only to lose to Cards. But then again I thought the RS would have a chance to make playoffs last yr but would lose in WC game. Maybe a repeat isn't so far fetched if everything goes our way AGAIN?

     

    We do need a lot to go right again, but we could see by imrpovements over 2013 by Pedroia, Buchholz, Napoli, Middy, Ross, and Miller, plus a big year from a rookie or two.

    I do think we will miss Ellsbury, but Victorino might do well, or if we use Nava/Gomes up first, we could see a better OBP from the leadoff slot thatn 2013 (.348).

    I like our pitching staff better. The pen looks deeper.

    I like our line-up:

    1) Nava/Gomes

    2) Victorino

    3) Pedroia

    4) Ortiz

    5) Napoli

    6) Bogaerts

    7) Middy

    8) AJ P

    9) Bradley

    I'm expecting a prospect or two to shine this year- maybe de la Rosa, Webster, Workman, Britton, Ranaudo, Barnes, Owens, or Cecchini.

    We also have about $10M to play with at the deadline; that's enough to get two quality players and still stay under the budget limit.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    They seemed to rest Salty against quite a few stud pitchers last year, maybe trying to land a draft pick for him when he left if things went right? It almost worked! They played Lavarnway a lot against Felix, Verlander, Moore, Price, Colon, Shields...etc. One would think the starter should be playing against most of those guys. 

    Salty clearly hit better but no team was willing to shell out much money for him. That says a lot right there. It says it all really.

    I think this scouting report on Barnes, Ranaudo and Owens pretty much nails it:

    http://www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox/scouts-take-sox-young-pitchers

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    We are in a bridge year.  I always hated how people misconstrued the term and turned it into a 4 letter word.

    For those people who reject the ideal of Boston entering bridge years and think it's the easy way out just remember this.  Last year was a bridge year too and we won the world series.

    Did we overachieve last year? yes, but that is the point.  A bridge year doesn't mean that you aren't trying to compete.  The Sox went out and signed a guy like Drew to a one year deal because they know Xander Bogaerts is the future.  They could have signed Brian McCann this year, but they know they have Christain Vasquez and Blake Swihart waiting in the wings.

    When all is said and done, they can take the money they are willing to spend and use it to fill in the positions they don't have anyone coming up into.  I can see us spending big on a FA corner outfielder and a starting pitcher over the next 2 offseasons, but besides that I'd rather us use our money to extend our own guys.

    I like this model....it works.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I wonder if Bogaerts could lead off??? maybe not right away as I wouldn't want to put that pressure on him.  But after a month or two if he looks like the guy he supposedly is and we all hope he is then why not?

    He may not be the prototypical leadoff guy, but he might be one of the better options on this team.  He has such an advanced approach for his age, I see a lot of Pedey in him...although I think he eventually develops a little more pop.

    While he doesn't have the blazing speed that Ellsbury did, I think he will have the OBP% a team look for in that slot.  Again I'm not saying to open up the season with him there...but it's something to ponder.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I didn't go to the game today as it was a road game, but I did watch it on MLBTV with the Twins broadcasters and I believe two camera angles. Webster did not look good but Britton looked great. And Nava made the most of his ST debut with a homer (righthanded no less) and a walk in three at bats, making his case for that leadoff spot. Vasquez threw out the first guy to try to steal off him this spring, in fact he's thrown out every runner I've seen try to steal on him, something like six for six total over the last two springs. Cecchini also had two hits, one a bloop, but he looks like a very polished hitter. I'll have more tomorrow night on a Doubront start and hopefully a few more veterans in the lineup against the O's.

    Somewhere else on here I saw another shortstop thread, discussing available guys to back up Bogey or force Middlebrooks to the bench. I like what I've seen from Herrera so far, a little pop, some speed on the bases, and looks like a solid, if unspectacular, defender. Between him and Holt I really don't see the team shopping for depth there and I'm quite certain, as I've posted before, that Bradley Jr., Bogey and Will will all be in the openning day lineup. As long as I don't refer to them as a t h r e e s o m eTongue Out

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    I wonder if Bogaerts could lead off??? maybe not right away as I wouldn't want to put that pressure on him.  But after a month or two if he looks like the guy he supposedly is and we all hope he is then why not?

    He may not be the prototypical leadoff guy, but he might be one of the better options on this team.  He has such an advanced approach for his age, I see a lot of Pedey in him...although I think he eventually develops a little more pop.

    While he doesn't have the blazing speed that Ellsbury did, I think he will have the OBP% a team look for in that slot.  Again I'm not saying to open up the season with him there...but it's something to ponder.



    How soon did they put Nomar in that leadoff spot? I don't remember if he started the season there or was moved there. I think they're looking for more pop from Bogey but the idea is certainly not far-fetched. I think that job will eventually be Bradley Jr.'s but he also has to show enough offensive consistency in real games first. As much as I liked Ellsbury's speed at the top of the order, I value OBP much more. Ellsbury's career OBP is/was around .350, but with only a .50 spread between batting avg. and OBP because he rarely walked. I'll happily take a guy who hits .280 but has an OBP of around .380 because of a more discerning eye. I think Ellsbury's speed helped his average because pitchers didn't want to walk him, yet he never capitalized on the speed to achieve "batting title" type numbers.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    They seemed to rest Salty against quite a few stud pitchers last year, maybe trying to land a draft pick for him when he left if things went right? It almost worked! They played Lavarnway a lot against Felix, Verlander, Moore, Price, Colon, Shields...etc. One would think the starter should be playing against most of those guys. 

    I didn't really notice him being benched vs tougher pitchers. I did notice that John was a bit less about the "personal caddy" system and a lot less about the left-righty thing. One would have expected that to hurt his overall offensive numbers, since he has pretty bad splits vs lefties.

    In 2013, Salty started 89 games vs RHPs and  23 vs LHPs.

    In 2012, Salty started 107 games vs RHPs but only 7 vs LHPs.

    PA/OPS splits:  vs RHPs    vs LHPs

    2012            391/.779    57/.494

    2013            334/.873   136/.628

    If the intent was to inflate Salty's numbers, wouldn't they have sat him more against lefties than 2012?

    The pitchers Salty faced the most in 2013 (PAs):

    15 Kuroda

    13 Tillman

    9 A Cobb

    9 Hellickson

    9 Scherzer

    9 Sabathia

    8 Fister

    7 Price

    7 J Johnson

     

    Lavarnway's most faced pitchers in 2013:

    6 Buehrle

    5 Moore

    3 Colon

    3 Felix

    3 Lyles

    3 E Ramirez

    3 Shields

    3 Verlander

    3 Weaver

    2 Alvarez, Diamond, Huff, Marshall, Nova, O Perez, Price, Smyly, Stults, Warren, Wihelmsen

     

    Salty clearly hit better but no team was willing to shell out much money for him. That says a lot right there. It says it all really.

    It does. I was thinking he might get $30M/3 or $38M/4 from someone. Maybe the WS highlight shows hurt his stock.

     

    I think this scouting report on Barnes, Ranaudo and Owens pretty much nails it:

    http://www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox/scouts-take-sox-young-pitchers

     Interesting. I think him calling Verlander and Halladay no  1 and No. 2 types is a bit too much. The way I figure number 1 stuff is to compare him to about the average numbers of the top 30 SP'ers in MLB. The number 2 should be the average numbers of the 31-60the best SP'ers in MLB and so forth.

    I think Owens and Barnes have solid Number 2 potential, and Ranaudo solid number 3 potential.

    He likes Workman over Ranaudo, but I wonder if just meant for 2014.




     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    I wonder if Bogaerts could lead off??? maybe not right away as I wouldn't want to put that pressure on him.  But after a month or two if he looks like the guy he supposedly is and we all hope he is then why not?

    He may not be the prototypical leadoff guy, but he might be one of the better options on this team.  He has such an advanced approach for his age, I see a lot of Pedey in him...although I think he eventually develops a little more pop.

    While he doesn't have the blazing speed that Ellsbury did, I think he will have the OBP% a team look for in that slot.  Again I'm not saying to open up the season with him there...but it's something to ponder.



    How soon did they put Nomar in that leadoff spot? I don't remember if he started the season there or was moved there. I think they're looking for more pop from Bogey but the idea is certainly not far-fetched. I think that job will eventually be Bradley Jr.'s but he also has to show enough offensive consistency in real games first. As much as I liked Ellsbury's speed at the top of the order, I value OBP much more. Ellsbury's career OBP is/was around .350, but with only a .50 spread between batting avg. and OBP because he rarely walked. I'll happily take a guy who hits .280 but has an OBP of around .380 because of a more discerning eye. I think Ellsbury's speed helped his average because pitchers didn't want to walk him, yet he never capitalized on the speed to achieve "batting title" type numbers.



    I agree, if we can get a .380+ OBP out of Nava batting first, that will help offset the loss of speed up top.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Thanks Jid.  I'm really anxious to see how Doobie does.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from SinceYaz. Show SinceYaz's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Let the games begin...

    The Sox have a strong and deep roster and should be strong contenders this year barring major injuries or several minor ones. Spring training games have begun, so here's a look at some information to be discussed and debated. Please try to keep this thread about the Sox and baseball related to the Sox.

    2014 Non-Roster Invitees:

    Pitchers: Barnes, Celestino, Cordero, Ely, Hill, Hinojosa, Layne, Mijares, Owens, Ramirez, & Villareal

    Catchers: Swihart

    Infielders: Marrero, McCoy, Meneses, Shaw, & Snyder 

    Outfield: Brown

     

    Service Time: based on 172 days = 1 season (season. days) under 2 years

    1.157 de la Rosa

    1.118 Middlebrooks

    1.040 Lavarnway

    0.078 Holt

    0.077 Britton

    0.056 Bradley

    0.051 Workman

    0.043 Webster

    0.041 Bogaerts

    0.030 Wright

     

    Players with Options Remaining:

    1 Nava, Middlebrooks, Tazawa, Britton, Lavarnway

    2 Webster, de la Rosa, Bradley, Herrera, Wilson, Wright, Butler, Vazquez, Hassan

    3 Bogaerts, Workman, Ranaudo, Cecchini, BrentzHolt

     

    2014 depth chart: (I made a few minor adjustments from soxprospects.com):

    Catcher:

    Pierzynski, Ross, Lavarnway, Butler, Vazquez, Spring, Brenly, Hernandez, Swihart

    First base:

    Napoli, Carp, Snyder, T Shaw

    Second base:

    Pedroia, Holt, McCoy, Dent, Betts, Coyle, W Rijo

    Shortstop:

    Bogaerts, Herrera, Roof, Meneses, Marrero, Natoli, Vinicio, Lin

    Third base:

    Middlebrooks, Rivero, Cecchini, Welch... Devers

    Left Field:

    Nava, Gomes, Vitek, Heller

    Center Field:

    Bradley, Sizemore, C Brown, S Cousins, Henry, Wilkerson, Ramos...Margot

    Right Field:

    Victorino, Hassan, Brentz, Linares, Hissey, Johnson, de la Cruz

     

    Staring Pitcher:

    Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Peavy, Doubront, Capuano

    Webster, Wright, J Ely, Ranaudo, Barnes, Owens, M Pena, Hinojosa

    Johnson, L Diaz, Stroup, Cuevas, Augliera, Kukuk, Light...

    S Gomez, Stankiewicz, Buttrey, Callahan, McGrath, Littrell, T Ball

     

    Swing Men:

    de la Rosa, Workman, Britton, Couch, Hernandez, Kehrt, McCarthy

    Quevedo, Kraus, Taveras, S Meredes

     

    Relief Pitcher:

    Uehara, Mujica, Tazawa, Breslow, Miller, Badenhop

    Villarreal, R Hill, T Layne, Wilson, Mijares, Cordero, Resop, Watanabe

    Valdez, N Ramirez, Celestino, Balcom-Miller, Kurcz, Ruiz, D Diaz, M Price

     

     40 Man Roster and Luxury Tax Numbers:

    $ 16.5M Lackey (then 1 year at league min)

    $16M  Napoli (1 year then FA)

    $14.5M Peavy (then FA)

    $13.75M Pedroia

    $ 13M Ortiz (then FA)

    $13M Victorino (to ’15)

    $13M Lester (then FA)

    $8.25M AJ P (then FA)

    $7.5M Buchholz (to ’15, then club options at $13M & $13.5M)

    $5M Gomes (then FA)

    $4.75M Mujica (to '15, then FA)

    $4.25M Uehara (option is vested)

    $3.125M Breslow ($4M club option in ’15 w. $0.1M buyout)

    $3.1M Ross (then FA)

    $2.25M Capuano (then FA)

    $2.15 Badenhop (then FA)

    $1.9M Miller (then FA)

    $1.4M Carp

    $1.3M Herrera (then 1 arb)

    $1.275M Tazawa (then 2 arbs)

    $0.75M Sizemore (+$1.25 Roster bonuses & 4M performance bones)

     

    Sub TOTAL: ~$148M 

     

    Estimated Pre-Arb  Player Total: $12M

    Doubront, Nava,  Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Snyder, Webster, Bradley, Bogaerts, Brentz, Britton, Butler, Ceccini, de la Rosa, Hassan, Holt, Vazquez, Wilson, Workman, Wright

     

    Total Estimated 2014 Red Sox Payroll Budget:$160M 

    Add the player pension fee of about $10.8M and the $3.9M payment to the Dodgers... 

     

    Total Luxury Limit Budget for 2014: ~$175M

     

     

    This leaves about $14M to spend and still be below the 

     

    limit,assuming Sizemore and others do not reach their

     

    bonus qualifications.

     

    Some big questions going into 2014:

    1) Can we overcome the loss of Ellsbury, Salty, and Drew?

    2) Can we rely on 3 young players in key roles (Bogey, Middy & Bradley)?

    3) Can our health continue on the right track (similar to 2013)?

    4) Can our staff continue the success of 2013?

    5) Can our offense remain in the top 3?

    6) Who will we draft in this year's strong & deep draft?

    7) Which prospects will earn a shot this year & which will shine?

    8) Can the vets repeat or improve on their 2014 numbers?

     

    Feel free to discuss anything else related to the Red Sox, but again, let's try to keep the personal attacks to a bare minimum. Keep it real.

     

    GO RED SOX !c



    Another outstanding prep for us, Moon.

     

    This time I will respond -

    I think the two items I highlighted will continue to be as good or better.  The dugout team has shown its players that they really care about them individually and even knowingly.  The health of the pitchers, both physically and emotionally, is so much better under Farrell and Nieves (sp?) than compared to BV that it's unmersearbly better. 

    I think Farrell knowing the guys better will also work in their favor.  Prima donnas are gone and the hunger to win and the drive never to be 2012 again is central.  Plus, these guys know they can do it.  Last ST when we spoke of best guesses, we/they had no idea that the flip was possible.

     

    THE HUNT FOR RED OCTOBER BEGINS NOW!

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    On that pitcher scouting report let's give Barnes a freaking cutter quick! Everything I hear is that he can control his fastball even within the zone and it misses bats and can get up to 98. The guy might well be a better overall prospect than Owens if we look at it long term. He should be able to at least relieve for us this year after the break.

    Ranaudo just doesn't seem to miss enough bats. Trade em!

    If we can get some value! He'd be a solid pitcher in some big park like San Diego. He is not cut out for the AL East though IMHO!

    Owens is a project but he clearly has potential.

    Could it be that Britton turns out to be a real decent LH reliever?

    This team is just flat out stacked! Can't wait for Cechinni to join the club and solve that lead off spot problem or slide in the 2 hole. He and JBJ are made to order Redsox hitters.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Finally off the schnied with a win today! It was beautiful day at the Jet as the Sox defeated a Baltimore team that didn't even closely resemble the team that will line up in Baltimore on the 31st. Jemile Weeks, the second baseman, is the only Oriole in today's lineup with a chance of being on the opening day starting lineup. Nonetheless, Felix Doubront went through their lineup like butter, allowing only one bloop single. The best part about his outing was that he consistently threw strikes. Mujica aslo threw well, as did Layne and Ramirez. I was very unimpressed with Ramirez the other day against college kids, but he looked like a professional pitcher today. I don't know where Layne fits in, but a lefty who throws strikes and can move the ball around can always get a job in MLB. For now I guess he's Pawtucket depth.

    The offense came to life some today, led by a Napoli bomb and consistent hard contact by Pedey, Bogey and Bradley Jr.. Bogey hit a gapper into right-center and flew out of the box thinking double all the way and he got there easily. Not many players double on that play, especially in ST. He was rewarded later when Bradley stroked a two-out run-scoring hit. Brentz continued to show me that he is a AAA player at best with a bad base-running play. He was on first when Gomes hit a shot off the left center wall and he paused halfway between first and second. There was a question as to whether or not the ball could be caught, but it was clearly deep enough to at least go to second and then react on to third or back to first. Instead Gomes settled for a 380 foot single and we had runners on first and second. It was a play my highschoolers know how to make.

    Conversely Gomes deked Delmon the doofus Young into only going from second to third on a long fly that hit high on the left-field wall. It cost the O's a run and allowed Wilson to pitch out of the inning and pick up the win, as Nap hit his two-run bomb in the bottom of the inning. Heiker Menenses, my new favorite baseball name, made a good baserunning play tagging to go from first to second on a long drive by Snyder, who hit the ball well twice. Heiker also let a grounder go through the five hole to put Baltimore on the board. We were gone by the time Baltimore scored five off of guys named Couch and Kepht(sp?). We did stick around long enough to see Yaz' grandson ground out in the top of the eighth; he got a nice reception from the crowd.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    On that pitcher scouting report let's give Barnes a freaking cutter quick! Everything I hear is that he can control his fastball even within the zone and it misses bats and can get up to 98. The guy might well be a better overall prospect than Owens if we look at it long term. He should be able to at least relieve for us this year after the break.

    Ranaudo just doesn't seem to miss enough bats. Trade em!

    If we can get some value! He'd be a solid pitcher in some big park like San Diego. He is not cut out for the AL East though IMHO!

    Owens is a project but he clearly has potential.

    Could it be that Britton turns out to be a real decent LH reliever?

    This team is just flat out stacked! Can't wait for Cechinni to join the club and solve that lead off spot problem or slide in the 2 hole. He and JBJ are made to order Redsox hitters.



    Boom, I think you'd be selling out too soon on Ranaudo, very lively arm and throws downhill very well from  his 6'7" frame. He's still rebuilding his arm strength after some injury issues and looks very good so far. Britton also looks good but I'm pretty sure he's headed for the Pawsox rotation. Long term he may or may not be a starter, but he will be a solid addition to our staff at some point this season and much more integral part of the staff in the next several years.

    Cechinni will be in the batting order at some point, maybe not this year. He needs to find a position as he is not a very good third baseman. Perhaps he becomes a left-fielder or a first-baseman, but not this year. I'm pulling for Middlebrooks to bounce back which will leave him without even the spot he's struggling to play.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    On that pitcher scouting report let's give Barnes a freaking cutter quick! Everything I hear is that he can control his fastball even within the zone and it misses bats and can get up to 98. The guy might well be a better overall prospect than Owens if we look at it long term. He should be able to at least relieve for us this year after the break.

    Ranaudo just doesn't seem to miss enough bats. Trade em!

    If we can get some value! He'd be a solid pitcher in some big park like San Diego. He is not cut out for the AL East though IMHO!

    Owens is a project but he clearly has potential.

    Could it be that Britton turns out to be a real decent LH reliever?

    This team is just flat out stacked! Can't wait for Cechinni to join the club and solve that lead off spot problem or slide in the 2 hole. He and JBJ are made to order Redsox hitters.



    I have been on Cecchini's bandwagon for a long time. I hope to see him this year, but not because Middy is stinking up the place or Naps or Papi are injured, but really, something like that needs to happen for garin to get a long ML look in 2014.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Finally off the schnied with a win today! It was beautiful day at the Jet as the Sox defeated a Baltimore team that didn't even closely resemble the team that will line up in Baltimore on the 31st. Jemile Weeks, the second baseman, is the only Oriole in today's lineup with a chance of being on the opening day starting lineup. Nonetheless, Felix Doubront went through their lineup like butter, allowing only one bloop single. The best part about his outing was that he consistently threw strikes.

    Doubie problem has always been BBs (and high WHIP). The guy has some nasty stuff and a ton of potential.

     

    Mujica aslo threw well, as did Layne and Ramirez. I was very unimpressed with Ramirez the other day against college kids, but he looked like a professional pitcher today. I don't know where Layne fits in, but a lefty who throws strikes and can move the ball around can always get a job in MLB. For now I guess he's Pawtucket depth.

    Yes, AAA depth with a lot of experience.

     

    The offense came to life some today, led by a Napoli bomb and consistent hard contact by Pedey, Bogey and Bradley Jr.. Bogey hit a gapper into right-center and flew out of the box thinking double all the way and he got there easily. Not many players double on that play, especially in ST. He was rewarded later when Bradley stroked a two-out run-scoring hit. Brentz continued to show me that he is a AAA player at best with a bad base-running play. He was on first when Gomes hit a shot off the left center wall and he paused halfway between first and second. There was a question as to whether or not the ball could be caught, but it was clearly deep enough to at least go to second and then react on to third or back to first. Instead Gomes settled for a 380 foot single and we had runners on first and second. It was a play my highschoolers know how to make.

    I've never been as high on Brentz as many here have been, but he's got power and still has time to learn.

     

    Conversely Gomes deked Delmon the doofus Young into only going from second to third on a long fly that hit high on the left-field wall. It cost the O's a run and allowed Wilson to pitch out of the inning and pick up the win, as Nap hit his two-run bomb in the bottom of the inning. Heiker Menenses, my new favorite baseball name, made a good baserunning play tagging to go from first to second on a long drive by Snyder, who hit the ball well twice. Heiker also let a grounder go through the five hole to put Baltimore on the board. We were gone by the time Baltimore scored five off of guys named Couch and Kepht(sp?). We did stick around long enough to see Yaz' grandson ground out in the top of the eighth; he got a nice reception from the crowd.

    How old are we, when we can now watch a grandson of Yaz play?

    Geeesh!

     
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