In response to moonslav59's comment:
Usually I project by position, but this year I will go player by player and assume reasonable health…
My 2013 Red Sox Offensive Projections (P As) BA HR RBI OBP/SLG/OPS:
AJ Pierzynski: They guy is 37, but he has over 497 PAs for 11 straight seasons and 128+ games in 12 straight! Not only that, he has been within 0.50 of his career .750 OPS in in all but 3 of those 12 seasons (.824 in 2003, .688 in 2010 and his career high of .827 just 2 years ago in 2012). He had his career high in HRs (27) at 35 and his 3rd highest (17) last year. I’m not projecting great offense from AJ, but he should come pretty close to what Salty gave us last year (.804 OPS). I’m going with…
(500) .275 18 80 .315/.435/.750
David Ross: Ross is also 37, but does not have the normal wear and tear of a full time career catcher as he has been a back-up all but maybe one season. Some of you may not know that he once posted a .932 OPS with 21 HRs in 247 Abs (2006). He had 38 HRs in 644 Pas from 2006 to 2007. His career OPS of .764 is very good for a catcher, but his health issues last year helped cause his worst OPS (.681) since 2007. I’m going with a relatively healthy season and…
(150) .230 7 20 .320/.420/.740
Mike Napoli: Mike’s health was a big issue this time last year, but the doctors now say the hip degeneration has been halted. Mike was as streaky as ever, but as usual, he ended up with very decent numbers. I’m not a fan that bashed guys for being streaky. Many times a hot streaky hitter can carry a team almost single-handedly. Mike is not only streaky within a season, he has also been known to yo-yo from one season to the next. An interesting career trend has developed: every third season, Mike has a big year, and guess what? This is year three! ( .815> .794> .960> .842 .784> 1.046> .812> .842) I’m not into superstitions, but I am projecting a better season for Napoli…
(600) .275 28 110 .370/.490/.860
Mike Carp: Mike gave us some great numbers off the bench last year, but I’m not even sure he will still be on this team for the full season. Injuries may play a role, but if he stays here, I’m going with…
(250) .280 8 40 .340/.440/.780
Dustin Pedroia: Dustin is now two full seasons removed from back-to-back .860+ OPS years and hasn’t even cracked .800 since 2011. Injuries have played a role in his power drop, but it was nice to see him return to his OBP norm last year after his career .347 low in 2012. I’m expecting a better year from Pedey as he turns 31 in August…
.300 15 90 .380/.445/.825
Will Middlebrooks: Certainly, Middy is the hardest Sox player to project. I’m going to guess he comes out somewhere between the 2012 numbers and 2013 numbers. Here it goes…
(500) .245 23 85 .285/.465/.750.
Jonathan Herrera: I’m liking him a whole lot better than I did Ciriaco, but on offense I’m not expecting much…
(250) .270 2 25 .330/.350/.675
(Note: I do expect to see Cecchini this year, but I am assuming overall good health for these proections.)
Xander Bogaerts: I’m expecting better offense from Bogey than Drew gave us but am not going to go all Freddie Lynn on you guys…
(600) .285 15 80 .375/.445/.820
Daniel Nava: Last year I projected very good numbers from our LF platoon, assuming nava would start vs almost all RHPs and Gomes would continue doing great vs the LH’d starters, but with the injuries, Carp and others played a lot of LF. I’m hoping that Nava can continue his strong 2013 numbers, but I’m projecting a slight downturn…
(475) .290 12 70 .380/.440/.820
Jonny Gomes: I expect Gomes to return to greatness vs LHPs. He had been one of the leagues best hitters vs lefties until 2013. Here it goes…
(375) .275 15 65 .350/.450/.800
Grady Sizemore: Okay, maybe he’s harder to project than Middy, but here it goes…(Actually a higher OPS than Jacoby’s 2013 OPS)
(400) .260 5 55 .350/.440/.790
Jackie Bradley Jr.: I think JBJ learned a lot. He still has adjustments to make, but I have faith he will someday be a plus offensive player, but for 2014, I expect…
(350) .250 7 35 .335/.390/..725
Shane Victorino: It’s all about health with Shane. He’s 33 this year. He proved me wrong last year, but I’m giving him the benefit of doubt this year…
(550) .285 15 65 .345/.445/.790
David Ortiz: The ageless wonder keeps going strong. If you count the playoffs last year, Papi hit 35 HRs and knocked in 116 runs in 586 Pas! I’m expecting a slight drop-off and hoping he stays well enough to play nearly every game. Papi in 2014.…
(600) 27 100 .390/.530/.920
Overall: The Red Sox led the league in runs scored last year by 57 runs. I would not be surprised, if we do it again, but it won’t be by 50. I’m guessing top 3 at worst. Yes, the loss of Jacoby will hurt, and we may not even break even with Salty and Drew’s lost offense, but I think Bogey, Middy and Pedey will give us a boost, and Gomes and Napoli have better seasons as well.
I’m willing to take some slack this October, as I am sure to be wrong often here, but if you are going to bash me hard, then at least post your numbers before day 1.
Moon well done. I really can't argue with most any of your projections. I might have Grady higher assuming he stays healthy [Big ? though] 110 rbi's for Naps might be a bit high and JBJ you were very kind to and I would love to see that when he gets his time w/ RS.
My biggest gripe is the lack of respect RS seem to be getting from national media, last year I would have expected that [only Kevin Millar was predicting a big comeback by RS]. But coming off WS win 3x in 10 yrs no less, where's the love? Heard Cliff Floyd on WFAN the other day drinking the Yankee kool-aid and actually predicting a BIG step backwards by RS, but did clarify by saying it wouldn't be 2012 bad, Gee Thx? Hope this is something that catches RS players attention and could big a big motivator to help team repeat. For me its all about health and Pitching staff. If RS staff stays healthy can be as good as anyones, and must avoid the big injuries to regular players also. But RS can do it again if they remaim motivated as they were last year and can keep players healthy!