A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'm encouraged by today's game. We hit the ball hard to the wrong part of the park. Lester looked sharp.

    It's a long season; I try not to get wrapped up with one game judgings by some clowns here.

    [/QUOTE]


    Feel the same way. Thought RS did everything right except win the game. Only real mistake was Carp not advancing on fly ball w/ no outs ended up costing us a run. But good starting pitching, multiple chances to score [just have games sometimes where no one gets that big hit that can get offense started], and defensively no real mistakes. O's seem to have our number lately, maybe just making up for all the yrs we owned them? But like our chances w/ Lackey on mound Thurs. Jid was right Lackey looked great his last time out in ST. Now lets hope offense supports him a little better than it did in 13.

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'm encouraged by today's game. We hit the ball hard to the wrong part of the park. Lester looked sharp.

    It's a long season; I try not to get wrapped up with one game judgings by some clowns here.

    [/QUOTE]


    Feel the same way. Thought RS did everything right except win the game. Only real mistake was Carp not advancing on fly ball w/ no outs ended up costing us a run. But good starting pitching, multiple chances to score [just have games sometimes where no one gets that big hit that can get offense started], and defensively no real mistakes. O's seem to have our number lately, maybe just making up for all the yrs we owned them? But like our chances w/ Lackey on mound Thurs. Jid was right Lackey looked great his last time out in ST. Now lets hope offense supports him a little better than it did in 13.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I never really understood all the extreme mood swings by posters on this site (not you) after 3-5 game losing streaks... let alone one loss in isolation.

    Yeah, we made some mistakes. That's baseball. Every team makes some mistakes- every game. Sometimes they matter- sometimes they do not. I don't feel like we made too many mistakes yesterday and more times than not, the amount we made yesterday will not be enough to tilt the odds towards a loss.

     

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Being realistic; we did not have  a good off season. Our competition improved, while we were pretty much stagnant. We did not have a good spring training. Looked nothing like a defending champ. We lost the opener, scoring just one run on a solo homer, while going hitless with RISP. A stupid bit of base running by Carp was costly. We can look all we want at the metric stats. But there are often key plays that make the difference between winning and losing. Last year, we made those plays. Will we do it again? Yes, there were bright spots, but there is a lot to be concerned about with this club. There are not too many easy games in this league. I am very interested in the four game series in New York. If we dig an early hole, it will not be easy to climb out.

    [/QUOTE]

    We improved in some areas and lost in others. I really think our pitching staff is much better on paper, and that is where we can make up a lot of ground, and then some, on the losses of key players- most notably Ellsbury.

    A full season of Peavy should not be underestimated. He has been way better than Dempster over the last 2-3 years.

    A full season from Buchholz alone could make up for the drop off from Ellsbury to Grady/JBJ.

    A full season from Miller could help.

    Uehara as the closer all year.

    A more experienced Doubront, Workman and Britton should help.

    Replacing Aceves with 37 IP (4.86 ERA) and Bailey 29 IP (3.77 ERA) with Mujica should be a vast improvement.

    Replacing Mortensen with 30 IP (5.34 ERA) and Wilson with 28 IP (4.88) with Badenhop should be a nice plus.

    Replacing Morales with 25 IP (4.62), Thornton 15 ip (3.52), and terrible numbers from 100 IP by Webster, Wright, de la Rosa, de la Torre, Beato, Hanrahan, and Bard with Capuano cannot possible be a negative. 

    Sure, there will be injuries and/or regressions, but the built-in flexibility we have to give extra innings (from 2013) to Buchholz, Peavy, Workman, Britton, and rising young pitching prospects seemingly ML ready right now improves our pitching outlook greatly. The additions of Mujica, Badenhop and Capuano to an already top 3 (+5.8 WAR) pen is astounding, to me. 

    I think any drop off in defense will be made up for by better overall play behind the plate by AJ P and Ross over Salty/Lava.

    I'm counting on our offense to be top 3 in runs scored, so I just don't see the cause for so much negativity. Yes, other teams improved more on paper than we did. Many of those teams had a lot of ground to make up to start with. The Dodgers, Rays, Tigers and Cards all look good on paper as well, but I don't see any of them being better than us right now.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Being realistic; we did not have  a good off season.



    It takes a while to be able to judge that.  Apparently you didn't learn this last year.

    Have some patience, man.  How long have you been a baseball fan anyway?

     

    [/QUOTE]

    With a moniker like Denny Galehouse, I'm guessing he's been a fan for a very long time. Now anyone who would choose one of the more imfamous names in Red Sox history may be tinged by a hint of negativity.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I admit, I was pretty negative last winter/spring. I had hoped we'd have built more for the long run, but I also said that Ben deserved a chance to prove himself. 

    He did that and then some!

    It's hard not to be positive this year, but I do know this: almost every year I feel really good about this team, we do poorly or worse than I expected. Conversely, when I feel bad about a team, we do better than I expected. I hope that trend stops this year.

    In 1975, I thought we were a year or two away from having a shot.

    In 1978, I thought we had enough to win it all.

    In 1986, I did not like our chances.

    In 2004, I did not think we were good enough to win a ring, until the Nomar trade.

    In 2007, I liked our chances, but did not project a ring.

    In 2013, I thought we needed too much to go right to even make the playoffs: I was way way way off!

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Then curb your optimism immediately Moon! Start making negative posts and we'll win games like we lost yesterday. 

    I thought we played well, just didn't get the big hit when we needed it, or that big hit died in the wind. Got to remember that Tillman is their ace and made some big pitches when he needed to. If we play like this for 162 games we'll win many more than we lose.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Then curb your optimism immediately Moon! Start making negative posts and we'll win games like we lost yesterday. 

    I thought we played well, just didn't get the big hit when we needed it, or that big hit died in the wind. Got to remember that Tillman is their ace and made some big pitches when he needed to. If we play like this for 162 games we'll win many more than we lose.

    [/QUOTE]

    I'm totally not superstitious, but if you insist:

    "We have no chance to win a ring this year!"

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Just for the record, I was one of the very few who liked our chances coming out of Spring training last year. It is my feeling that, in business, you have to continually strive to stay ahead of the competition. I think we have failed to do that. Winning a championship can sometimes create a self-satisfied feeling leading to complacency. It can also cause an inflated opinion of the talent on the team. I am far from giving up on the season. I still have optimism. Just stating my feeling that we have let the competition get the jump on us. By the way, Denny Galehouse was an average pitcher who is often remembered as a failure, when in fact, it was the manager's blunder. So, don't blame me.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Just for the record, I was one of the very few who liked our chances coming out of Spring training last year. It is my feeling that, in business, you have to continually strive to stay ahead of the competition. I think we have failed to do that. Winning a championship can sometimes create a self-satisfied feeling leading to complacency. It can also cause an inflated opinion of the talent on the team. I am far from giving up on the season. I still have optimism. Just stating my feeling that we have let the competition get the jump on us. By the way, Denny Galehouse was an average pitcher who is often remembered as a failure, when in fact, it was the manager's blunder. So, don't blame me.

    [/QUOTE]

    I have no gripe with you. If I did, I'd be a hypocrite for what I wrote last year.

    I do think our pitching staff is way better on paper than last's year's very good staff. We are light years better than the pitching outlook last April.

    I do think we might have made a deal that could have better boosted our chances this year, but I'd have to see an actual offer to have an opinion one way or another. I'm not a person who thinks we need to keep all our prospects, but I'm happy we have an excellent chance this year while still holding all our top prospects and having 2-3 high draft choices in a deep and strong June draft.

    I wouldn't trade our 40 man roster, farm and budget outlook combined with any team in MLB, including the Rays.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II


    After that season two years ago, we all had a reason to have the yips.  Boom was a beacon for us all last spring.  And now I'm in agreement with Moon:  we have many reasons to be happy with our present and ongoing position.  I think this season should be really entertaining--for me it's to see how the young kids and pitchers come along, how SuperSize does over the course of the season, if we make any pivotal mid season moves...I watched Stanton take an at bat yesterday.  Wow, he eventually struck out, but he hit about (5) hard foul liners before that...and I'm anxious to see who we draft...

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Just for the record, I was one of the very few who liked our chances coming out of Spring training last year. It is my feeling that, in business, you have to continually strive to stay ahead of the competition. I think we have failed to do that. Winning a championship can sometimes create a self-satisfied feeling leading to complacency. It can also cause an inflated opinion of the talent on the team. I am far from giving up on the season. I still have optimism. Just stating my feeling that we have let the competition get the jump on us. By the way, Denny Galehouse was an average pitcher who is often remembered as a failure, when in fact, it was the manager's blunder. So, don't blame me.

    [/QUOTE]

    Couldn't agree more Denny, he had no business starting that game. My reference to him as an imfamous name had much more to do with the circumstances and the history than with the player himself.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I'm with Moon on the pitching staff. It's potentially a top 3 staff and that alone puts is in the playoff running. With a top 3 offense also probably why wouldn't we project this team to win the division?

    It's Lackey, Lackey, Lackey. The reemergence of Lackey last year was a huge part of that turnaround. And I do think Buchholz might actually give us a 180 inning year in 2014. Add in Lester and decent #4 and 5 pitchers, plus better starter depth than any team in baseball potentially and the numbers look real good. It would take losing more than one starter for an extended period IMO, to keep this team out of the playoffs probably.

    I have been banking on solid years from Bogaerts and Middlebrooks and I see no reason why that shouldn't happen. One of them might even put up great numbers as they are both capable of it and young. Sometimes young players become stars. Either of these guys could become a true all star this year. My bet is probably Middlebrooks but Bogaerts has always been a quick learner. He may tear up the league even by the 2nd half. 

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to jcri's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    After that season two years ago, we all had a reason to have the yips.  Boom was a beacon for us all last spring.  And now I'm in agreement with Moon:  we have many reasons to be happy with our present and ongoing position.  I think this season should be really entertaining--for me it's to see how the young kids and pitchers come along, how SuperSize does over the course of the season, if we make any pivotal mid season moves...I watched Stanton take an at bat yesterday.  Wow, he eventually struck out, but he hit about (5) hard foul liners before that...and I'm anxious to see who we draft...

    [/QUOTE]

    I really think Stanton is going to become a monster. Maybe not Miggy, but still...

    I've been wrong quite a few times about players I thought we should strongly pursue, like Brett Anderson, Gavin Floyd, and others. I've been luke warm with others like Justin Upton and Wil Myers. I've been pretty good on others like Gio Gonzalez, A Sanchez, and Napoli, but all deals need to be taken in context and judged many years afterwards.

    Not all our prospects will do well. Had we traded Lars Anderson before he showed his true colors, we'd probably be better off, but I'm sure many here would have complained. We have a recent history of doing pretty well when trading prospects, but those Bagwell memories linger.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'm with Moon on the pitching staff. It's potentially a top 3 staff and that alone puts is in the playoff running. With a top 3 offense also probably why wouldn't we project this team to win the division?

    It's Lackey, Lackey, Lackey. The reemergence of Lackey last year was a huge part of that turnaround. And I do think Buchholz might actually give us a 180 inning year in 2014. Add in Lester and decent #4 and 5 pitchers, plus better starter depth than any team in baseball potentially and the numbers look real good. It would take losing more than one starter for an extended period IMO, to keep this team out of the playoffs probably.

    I have been banking on solid years from Bogaerts and Middlebrooks and I see no reason why that shouldn't happen. One of them might even put up great numbers as they are both capable of it and young. Sometimes young players become stars. Either of these guys could become a true all star this year. My bet is probably Middlebrooks but Bogaerts has always been a quick learner. He may tear up the league even by the 2nd half. 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I'd put the odds of either Bogey or Middy having a big year at better than 50/50, but there's also a significant change Middy bombs out and/or Bogey hits .265  12  55.

    I'm with you though. I think we will have a top 3 staff and offense and a middle road defense, so that should translate to being a top 3 or 4 ring contender, if not number 1 overall.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Question:  Why do some Opening Day games and Playoff games begin in the middle of the afternoon on a weekday?  I had to work during Boston's opener yesterday afternoon.  Frown

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    dgalehouse,

    I hear you but can't see disaster looming as you do.  The rotation, which was great last year, is back, and the bullpen is probably better than last year, especially early last year.

    Hitting might be suspect, but that all depends on how you see Ellsbury's departure, and right now I like Sizemore a lot as a fill-in.  Salty and Drew gone ain't much of a loss on the offensive side, especially with Bogaerts at SS.  The big question is Middlebrooks, but I'm thinking he is bound to do better than he did last year. 

    I do agree Stanton could have been a great add, but don't believe his absence courts disaster. 

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Before the end of the year I'd like to revisit this. Look at what we did and really tell me we couldn't have been better by the below options ( in this order because these were some of the options last winter ):

    1) Signed Jose Abreu ( the Cuban slugger ) for a 6 year, $66 mil deal without losing a top draft pick. He was 26 years old, a former Cuban league MVP who is known for monstrous power and he also hit for average and OBP. He would have cost us less than Napoli, been 4-5 years younger just coming into his prime and in my opinion will put up better numbers by far offensively than Napoli and solved our 1st base problem cheaply for the next 6 years. Within the next month I think we will regret not making that deal. We even had him in the Redsox development center training but they passed. I'd like to give them the benefit of the doubt but unless the guy is a real jerk I would have made that deal.

    2) No one hear thought it was a good idea but I still would have made a strong run even up to $20 mil a year to sign Kuroda. That move would have knocked the Yankees completely out of the running this year ( I'm not ruling them out yet with the rotation they have ) plus it would have upgraded our rotation with a stud and increased our depth in the rotation to a point where we could have traded someone potentially. Even if it didn't work it would have cost the Yanks even more to keep him. We would have lost one pick but it would have been worth it. I would even have signed him on a 2-3 year deal if necessary. He's an animal.

    3) I was all for making a strong run at Choo and Tanaka but they eneded up being out of oour price range and at those levels I would have passed.

    4) I would have liked to have picked up Rajai Davis but it looks like Sizemore will be an even better option if we can keep him on the field. He actually looks pretty healthy so far. The numbers are not his friend though.

    I still can't get over the 92 XBH Sizemore put up earlier in his career. That's just an incredible stat for a guy who was also good defensively.

    5: Letting all our free agents go to get all those picks. Overall, even if we signed Kuroda we would have had the same number of picks we have now since we would have let Napoli go.

    I've gotta say though that I really like Napoli. He seems like a great team guy and a good guy to root for. I love the number of pitches he sees and the numbers he puts up against good pitching. I'd still sell my mom though for a guy with better numbers who is cheaper and coming into his prime ( Abreu ). 

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    redsoxprospects,

    Some good points, and you could well be right.  But right now it's really hard for me to second guess anything Cherington does or, in this case, fails to do. 

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Great post.

     

    Before the end of the year I'd like to revisit this. Look at what we did and really tell me we couldn't have been better by the below options ( in this order because these were some of the options last winter ):

    1) Signed Jose Abreu ( the Cuban slugger ) for a 6 year, $66 mil deal without losing a top draft pick. He was 26 years old, a former Cuban league MVP who is known for monstrous power and he also hit for average and OBP. He would have cost us less than Napoli, been 4-5 years younger just coming into his prime and in my opinion will put up better numbers by far offensively than Napoli and solved our 1st base problem cheaply for the next 6 years. Within the next month I think we will regret not making that deal. We even had him in the Redsox development center training but they passed. I'd like to give them the benefit of the doubt but unless the guy is a real jerk I would have made that deal.

    I do think I'd have preferred Abreu to Napoli, but I think napoli was the safer choice for staying competitive this year. I also think that Middy, Cecchini, or Bogey ends up at 1B after Naps is gone, so our longterm outlook at 1B is not as bad as it looks on paper now. (Betts may move to 3B or SS.)

     

    2) No one hear thought it was a good idea but I still would have made a strong run even up to $20 mil a year to sign Kuroda. That move would have knocked the Yankees completely out of the running this year ( I'm not ruling them out yet with the rotation they have ) plus it would have upgraded our rotation with a stud and increased our depth in the rotation to a point where we could have traded someone potentially. Even if it didn't work it would have cost the Yanks even more to keep him. We would have lost one pick but it would have been worth it. I would even have signed him on a 2-3 year deal if necessary. He's an animal.

    I never thought this was a crazy idea as many here did, and I'm always for improving the rotation from the top not the middle or bottom, but losing a draft pick for a 1 or 2 year deal is very risky, and if you value a high draft pick at about $10M, we'd actually have paid Kuroda $30M/1 or $25M x 2.

    All in all, I think this year's rotation, rotation depth, and starting pitcher prospects combined is the strongest I have ever seen as a Red Sox fan.

     

    3) I was all for making a strong run at Choo and Tanaka but they eneded up being out of oour price range and at those levels I would have passed.

    Agreed. I also mentioned the benefits of signing Beltran over Napoli and going with Middy/Cecchini/Carp/Nava/papi at 1B as possibly being a better route to take, especially when playing in an NL park (Papi or Naps have to be ebenched.)

     

    4) I would have liked to have picked up Rajai Davis but it looks like Sizemore will be an even better option if we can keep him on the field. He actually looks pretty healthy so far. The numbers are not his friend though.

    I liked Davis at first and even Ruggiano, but Grady is looking like a great signing at this point.

     

    I still can't get over the 92 XBH Sizemore put up earlier in his career. That's just an incredible stat for a guy who was also good defensively.

    I know, right!  92!!!  He also had a nice 4 year stretch of 70, 92, 63 and 77 XBHs, so 92 was not a big fluke. He actually added 15 points onto his OBP after that big year. He has a .908 playoff OPS in 53 PAs. This guys has mad skills. 

     

    5: Letting all our free agents go to get all those picks. Overall, even if we signed Kuroda we would have had the same number of picks we have now since we would have let Napoli go.

    We'd also probably have traded a SP for a good piece somewhere, but I like our rotation just fine.

     

    I've gotta say though that I really like Napoli. He seems like a great team guy and a good guy to root for. I love the number of pitches he sees and the numbers he puts up against good pitching. I'd still sell my mom though for a guy with better numbers who is cheaper and coming into his prime ( Abreu ). 

    So many of these guys don't make it though, and Naps is pretty much a known commodity. Let's wait and see how Middy and Cecchini look this year to even begin to pass judgement.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    redsoxprospects,

    Some good points, and you could well be right.  But right now it's really hard for me to second guess anything Cherington does or, in this case, fails to do. 

    [/QUOTE]

    After last year, I decided to give up second guessing Ben for Lent.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to jcri's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    After that season two years ago, we all had a reason to have the yips.  Boom was a beacon for us all last spring.  And now I'm in agreement with Moon:  we have many reasons to be happy with our present and ongoing position.  I think this season should be really entertaining--for me it's to see how the young kids and pitchers come along, how SuperSize does over the course of the season, if we make any pivotal mid season moves...I watched Stanton take an at bat yesterday.  Wow, he eventually struck out, but he hit about (5) hard foul liners before that...and I'm anxious to see who we draft...

    [/QUOTE]

    I really think Stanton is going to become a monster. Maybe not Miggy, but still...

    I've been wrong quite a few times about players I thought we should strongly pursue, like Brett Anderson, Gavin Floyd, and others. I've been luke warm with others like Justin Upton and Wil Myers. I've been pretty good on others like Gio Gonzalez, A Sanchez, and Napoli, but all deals need to be taken in context and judged many years afterwards.

    Not all our prospects will do well. Had we traded Lars Anderson before he showed his true colors, we'd probably be better off, but I'm sure many here would have complained. We have a recent history of doing pretty well when trading prospects, but those Bagwell memories linger.

    [/QUOTE]


    Probably no worse than most GM's in the game. Lets face it if one GM got it right means another got it wrong. There wasn't alot of talk this off season [some] about Abreau for RS 1B job. Coming off WS most wanted Naps back, now Abreau has a fantastic OD and everyone is "We should have signed him instead of Naps" may well turn out to be a great sign for WSox, but still way too early to tell. Imagined if we signed him let Naps walk and he turned out to be a bust. They'd be ripping Ben a new ..... If GM's could make trades/signs in hindsight there would be no bad GM's

    I'm not big on the RS aquiring Stanton idea, mostly because of the probable cost. He will hit a ton of homers 40-50 w/ RS but if I'm going to give up the farm basically I want a more complete player [Mike Trout / Andrew McCutchen type] some one who can run, play defense, and hit. A player who can affect a game in alot of ways.

    Not ALL our prospects have to pan out. But if you have as many top prospects as RS do, then you know you are bound to have a bunch who do turn out to be the real deal. RS even lately have had their fair share of failures [Vitek / Hansen] or injuries [Kalish]. But saying the RS have 10 top prospects would not be overstating it, it would not be unfair to think that 6 will turn out to be as good as advertised in the next couple of yrs. I'm a big believer if a team wants to be succesful that a franchise must graduate on avg 2 players per year to the big club. RS farm system is well ahead of this curve.

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I really think Stanton is going to become a monster. Maybe not Miggy, but still...

    I've been wrong quite a few times about players I thought we should strongly pursue, like Brett Anderson, Gavin Floyd, and others. I've been luke warm with others like Justin Upton and Wil Myers. I've been pretty good on others like Gio Gonzalez, A Sanchez, and Napoli, but all deals need to be taken in context and judged many years afterwards.

    Not all our prospects will do well. Had we traded Lars Anderson before he showed his true colors, we'd probably be better off, but I'm sure many here would have complained. We have a recent history of doing pretty well when trading prospects, but those Bagwell memories linger.

    [/QUOTE]


    Probably no worse than most GM's in the game. Lets face it if one GM got it right means another got it wrong. There wasn't alot of talk this off season [some] about Abreau for RS 1B job. Coming off WS most wanted Naps back, now Abreau has a fantastic OD and everyone is "We should have signed him instead of Naps" may well turn out to be a great sign for WSox, but still way too early to tell. Imagined if we signed him let Naps walk and he turned out to be a bust. They'd be ripping Ben a new ..... If GM's could make trades/signs in hindsight there would be no bad GM's

    I'm not big on the RS aquiring Stanton idea, mostly because of the probable cost. He will hit a ton of homers 40-50 w/ RS but if I'm going to give up the farm basically I want a more complete player [Mike Trout / Andrew McCutchen type] some one who can run, play defense, and hit. A player who can affect a game in alot of ways.

    Not ALL our prospects have to pan out. But if you have as many top prospects as RS do, then you know you are bound to have a bunch who do turn out to be the real deal. RS even lately have had their fair share of failures [Vitek / Hansen] or injuries [Kalish]. But saying the RS have 10 top prospects would not be overstating it, it would not be unfair to think that 6 will turn out to be as good as advertised in the next couple of yrs. I'm a big believer if a team wants to be succesful that a franchise must graduate on avg 2 players per year to the big club. RS farm system is well ahead of this curve.

     

    I have no beef with Ben. How can anyone?

    The moment the AGon trade was made, I called it "perhaps the greatest Red Sox trade in my lifetime". 

    Ironically, my biggest 2 complaints last winter were...

    1) We did not sign or trade for a player entering his prime that was under team control for more than 3 years. (Help us now and help us 3+ years from now as well)

    2) We did not continue to build on the Dodger trade by further stocking up on the farm- preferrably more quality than quantity.

    Now, remember, I based this on my belief that we had basically no chance of winning a ring in 2013, so why not build for the extended future, but also improve in 2013 by adding players like Justin Upton and Anibal Sanchez and by adding promising younger pitchers like Brett Anderson and Brandon McCarthy over the likes of Dempster and Hanrahan.

     

    This winter, we did add to the farm by gaining a draft pick in a deep and strong draft year, but we have still not added a key piece that projects to be a stud for 4+ years. I'm not saying I think we necessarily need to; Ben proved that theory wrong last winter.

    There is, however, one theory I believe is always true: never base your future plans on a past plan that happened to work once or give up on a plan that happened to fail once. Yes, the Bagwell trade was a disaster, but the HanRam/A Sanchez deal won us a ring. The CC signing was a disaster, but the Manny signing directly led to a ring. Everyone loved the trade of Kelly and Rizzo for AGon, but few loved the trade of AGon to the Dodgers. There are many levels to each of these types of plans, and I think the key is balance. One could argue that our farm is almost too deep and too "quantity" orientated, especially with more to be added this June, and we are "ripe" for a "correction"- due for a blockbuster deal or signing. As Papi's career nears an end, we need to start considering a big slugger added to our line-up. We need to be proactive and explore all possibilities, because they don't come up very often. If we wait until we are desperate, we may just settle on the best available at the time. We may get lucky taht time is right, and I'm not saying now is the time and Stanton is the man-- that man, but he certainly has the potential to be a monster on offense for many years to come.

    I know I am not expert on prospects, and on top of that, none of us really know what some actual deals have been discussed or offered since the Dodger trade. Like most Sox fans, I like our prospects and want to keep them in hopes of filling some open slots with affordable long controlled players, but waiting too long also gives us the Lars Andersons and Viteks of the world as well. I'm super high on Bogey, Cecchini, Owens and Betts, and unless Middy is dealt (or moved to 1B after Napoli moves on), a couple will have to radically change positions to have a significant role on this team. I like Barnes, Ranaudo, Webster, de la Rosa, Workman, and Britton, but I think we could see if some other rebuilding GM values them more than we do. I'd seriously look at packaging 2-3 of these young SP'ers with a blocked prospects like Marrero, Cecchini (or Middy) or Betts and see what shakes out. I'm not for trading these guys just for the sake of trading them. I know some poster here think if you mention trading one of our players it means you don't value them or at least don't value them as highly as they do, but I disagree. I think these prospects hold a lot of value for our future, and so they also hold the same or more value to other team's futures as well. Let's see how much some teams want these guys.

    For arguments sake, let's say we are able to get Stanton for Middy, Webster, de la Rosa, Barnes and Betts. We then sign Drew (not getting the draft pick anyways) and move Bogey to 3B. We move Cecchini to 1B on the farm and Betts to SS or 3B. I'd still think our farm would rank pretty highly, especially after the June draft. We might have to give up JBJ, Owens or Swihart, but if they took the offer I suggested, we'd still have...

    1) Bogey

    2) Bradley

    3) Owens

    4) Cecchini

    5) Swihart

    7) Ranaudo

    9) Workman

    11) Britton

    12) T Ball

    13) Vazquez

    That's a very decent new top 10 with some decent prospects below as well:

     Margot, Stanky, Marrero, Devers, Rijo, B Johnson, Brentz/Hassan, and Callahan/Mercedes

     

    I'm okay sticking with the kids, but I do think Ben is keeping his eyes open for a chance to pounce.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    A few of us were pushing for Abreau last fall. He had outstanding numbers in Cuba and although some scouts said his bat was too slow he recently almost took Kershaw's head off with a liner up the middle. The guy even is not that bad in the field. He is a potential all star. One year his OBP was over .500 if I remember correctly in Cuba. Just incredible numbers and it was clear no one wanted to pitch to him in Cuba.

    He did well in international ball also. He wasn't just a guy who could hit a lot of HR. He was a triple crown guy one year. With tremendous OBP also.

    I understand why they didn't want to take the risk but what if this guy is for real? What a difference his bat would have made for the next 6 years. I think the White Sox have a steal.

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I really think Stanton is going to become a monster. Maybe not Miggy, but still...

    I've been wrong quite a few times about players I thought we should strongly pursue, like Brett Anderson, Gavin Floyd, and others. I've been luke warm with others like Justin Upton and Wil Myers. I've been pretty good on others like Gio Gonzalez, A Sanchez, and Napoli, but all deals need to be taken in context and judged many years afterwards.

    Not all our prospects will do well. Had we traded Lars Anderson before he showed his true colors, we'd probably be better off, but I'm sure many here would have complained. We have a recent history of doing pretty well when trading prospects, but those Bagwell memories linger.

    [/QUOTE]


    Probably no worse than most GM's in the game. Lets face it if one GM got it right means another got it wrong. There wasn't alot of talk this off season [some] about Abreau for RS 1B job. Coming off WS most wanted Naps back, now Abreau has a fantastic OD and everyone is "We should have signed him instead of Naps" may well turn out to be a great sign for WSox, but still way too early to tell. Imagined if we signed him let Naps walk and he turned out to be a bust. They'd be ripping Ben a new ..... If GM's could make trades/signs in hindsight there would be no bad GM's

    I'm not big on the RS aquiring Stanton idea, mostly because of the probable cost. He will hit a ton of homers 40-50 w/ RS but if I'm going to give up the farm basically I want a more complete player [Mike Trout / Andrew McCutchen type] some one who can run, play defense, and hit. A player who can affect a game in alot of ways.

    Not ALL our prospects have to pan out. But if you have as many top prospects as RS do, then you know you are bound to have a bunch who do turn out to be the real deal. RS even lately have had their fair share of failures [Vitek / Hansen] or injuries [Kalish]. But saying the RS have 10 top prospects would not be overstating it, it would not be unfair to think that 6 will turn out to be as good as advertised in the next couple of yrs. I'm a big believer if a team wants to be succesful that a franchise must graduate on avg 2 players per year to the big club. RS farm system is well ahead of this curve.

     

    I have no beef with Ben. How can anyone?

    The moment the AGon trade was made, I called it "perhaps the greatest Red Sox trade in my lifetime". 

    Ironically, my biggest 2 complaints last winter were...

    1) We did not sign or trade for a player entering his prime that was under team control for more than 3 years. (Help us now and help us 3+ years from now as well)

    2) We did not continue to build on the Dodger trade by further stocking up on the farm- preferrably more quality than quantity.

    Now, remember, I based this on my belief that we had basically no chance of winning a ring in 2013, so why not build for the extended future, but also improve in 2013 by adding players like Justin Upton and Anibal Sanchez and by adding promising younger pitchers like Brett Anderson and Brandon McCarthy over the likes of Dempster and Hanrahan.

     

    This winter, we did add to the farm by gaining a draft pick in a deep and strong draft year, but we have still not added a key piece that projects to be a stud for 4+ years. I'm not saying I think we necessarily need to; Ben proved that theory wrong last winter.

    There is, however, one theory I believe is always true: never base your future plans on a past plan that happened to work once or give up on a plan that happened to fail once. Yes, the Bagwell trade was a disaster, but the HanRam/A Sanchez deal won us a ring. The CC signing was a disaster, but the Manny signing directly led to a ring. Everyone loved the trade of Kelly and Rizzo for AGon, but few loved the trade of AGon to the Dodgers. There are many levels to each of these types of plans, and I think the key is balance. One could argue that our farm is almost too deep and too "quantity" orientated, especially with more to be added this June, and we are "ripe" for a "correction"- due for a blockbuster deal or signing. As Papi's career nears an end, we need to start considering a big slugger added to our line-up. We need to be proactive and explore all possibilities, because they don't come up very often. If we wait until we are desperate, we may just settle on the best available at the time. We may get lucky taht time is right, and I'm not saying now is the time and Stanton is the man-- that man, but he certainly has the potential to be a monster on offense for many years to come.

    I know I am not expert on prospects, and on top of that, none of us really know what some actual deals have been discussed or offered since the Dodger trade. Like most Sox fans, I like our prospects and want to keep them in hopes of filling some open slots with affordable long controlled players, but waiting too long also gives us the Lars Andersons and Viteks of the world as well. I'm super high on Bogey, Cecchini, Owens and Betts, and unless Middy is dealt (or moved to 1B after Napoli moves on), a couple will have to radically change positions to have a significant role on this team. I like Barnes, Ranaudo, Webster, de la Rosa, Workman, and Britton, but I think we could see if some other rebuilding GM values them more than we do. I'd seriously look at packaging 2-3 of these young SP'ers with a blocked prospects like Marrero, Cecchini (or Middy) or Betts and see what shakes out. I'm not for trading these guys just for the sake of trading them. I know some poster here think if you mention trading one of our players it means you don't value them or at least don't value them as highly as they do, but I disagree. I think these prospects hold a lot of value for our future, and so they also hold the same or more value to other team's futures as well. Let's see how much some teams want these guys.

    For arguments sake, let's say we are able to get Stanton for Middy, Webster, de la Rosa, Barnes and Betts. We then sign Drew (not getting the draft pick anyways) and move Bogey to 3B. We move Cecchini to 1B on the farm and Betts to SS or 3B. I'd still think our farm would rank pretty highly, especially after the June draft. We might have to give up JBJ, Owens or Swihart, but if they took the offer I suggested, we'd still have...

    1) Bogey

    2) Bradley

    3) Owens

    4) Cecchini

    5) Swihart

    7) Ranaudo

    9) Workman

    11) Britton

    12) T Ball

    13) Vazquez

    That's a very decent new top 10 with some decent prospects below as well:

     Margot, Stanky, Marrero, Devers, Rijo, B Johnson, Brentz/Hassan, and Callahan/Mercedes

     

    I'm okay sticking with the kids, but I do think Ben is keeping his eyes open for a chance to pounce.

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes, like that trade off for Stanton, here's hoping something along those lines happens.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

     

    I have no beef with Ben. How can anyone?

    The moment the AGon trade was made, I called it "perhaps the greatest Red Sox trade in my lifetime". 

    I was not that optimistic, but based on direction of team and some of the things that were in the media losing Beckett / Agon / CC were probably only going to help this team. But it still came down to allocating the $ properly something I thought Ben did a good job of in getting quality players and not getting stuck in these long term commitments which seem to drag teams down eithe thru injury or non performance based on $ commitment

    Ironically, my biggest 2 complaints last winter were...

    1) We did not sign or trade for a player entering his prime that was under team control for more than 3 years. (Help us now and help us 3+ years from now as well)

    Again me and you tend to disagree here. Think Ben was looking at his own farm system and realizing that his own young talent was still a couple of yrs away and that is what led to many of the short term signings that he did make. It was buying time in essance.

    2) We did not continue to build on the Dodger trade by further stocking up on the farm- preferrably more quality than quantity.

    Think the fact that he was able to get rid of these terrible contracts was enough to make this a great deal. The fact that he may have actually gotten some young talent that may help down the road was an added bonus.

    Now, remember, I based this on my belief that we had basically no chance of winning a ring in 2013, so why not build for the extended future, but also improve in 2013 by adding players like Justin Upton and Anibal Sanchez and by adding promising younger pitchers like Brett Anderson and Brandon McCarthy over the likes of Dempster and Hanrahan.

    Probably because going after an Upton or Sanchez would have been doing what they were trying to get away from. Remember the criticism of the Lackey deal the CC signing, the Agon trade [not as much].

     

    This winter, we did add to the farm by gaining a draft pick in a deep and strong draft year, but we have still not added a key piece that projects to be a stud for 4+ years. I'm not saying I think we necessarily need to; Ben proved that theory wrong last winter.

    There is, however, one theory I believe is always true: never base your future plans on a past plan that happened to work once or give up on a plan that happened to fail once. Yes, the Bagwell trade was a disaster, but the HanRam/A Sanchez deal won us a ring. The CC signing was a disaster, but the Manny signing directly led to a ring. Everyone loved the trade of Kelly and Rizzo for AGon, but few loved the trade of AGon to the Dodgers. There are many levels to each of these types of plans, and I think the key is balance. One could argue that our farm is almost too deep and too "quantity" orientated, especially with more to be added this June, and we are "ripe" for a "correction"- due for a blockbuster deal or signing. As Papi's career nears an end, we need to start considering a big slugger added to our line-up. We need to be proactive and explore all possibilities, because they don't come up very often. If we wait until we are desperate, we may just settle on the best available at the time. We may get lucky taht time is right, and I'm not saying now is the time and Stanton is the man-- that man, but he certainly has the potential to be a monster on offense for many years to come.

    I understand your belief that we need to find a replacement for Papi's bat in the middle of our lineup. I just disagree with the idea of trading a bunch of prospects for Stanton. If I were to trade 4-5 top prospects I want a more COMPLETE player. Stanton I agree would hit his HR's but defensively and speed are not products of his game. Lots of ways to score runs, HR's is only 1 way. But based on Stanton not staying on the field the last 2 yrs, the fact that we know Marlins stand very little chance of signing him to extension, and the fact that in 2 yrs RS will have ALOT of $ to spend, and Papi is signed for 2 more yrs  makes giving up this pkg of young talent, not a good move IMO. We've seen teams win WS's w/out the proverbial big slugger in the middle. Cards let Pujols walk and replaced him w/ Beltran a more complete player and won a WS.

    I know I am not expert on prospects, and on top of that, none of us really know what some actual deals have been discussed or offered since the Dodger trade. Like most Sox fans, I like our prospects and want to keep them in hopes of filling some open slots with affordable long controlled players, but waiting too long also gives us the Lars Andersons and Viteks of the world as well. I'm super high on Bogey, Cecchini, Owens and Betts, and unless Middy is dealt (or moved to 1B after Napoli moves on), a couple will have to radically change positions to have a significant role on this team. I like Barnes, Ranaudo, Webster, de la Rosa, Workman, and Britton, but I think we could see if some other rebuilding GM values them more than we do. I'd seriously look at packaging 2-3 of these young SP'ers with a blocked prospects like Marrero, Cecchini (or Middy) or Betts and see what shakes out. I'm not for trading these guys just for the sake of trading them. I know some poster here think if you mention trading one of our players it means you don't value them or at least don't value them as highly as they do, but I disagree. I think these prospects hold a lot of value for our future, and so they also hold the same or more value to other team's futures as well. Let's see how much some teams want these guys.

    I agree at times you need to move some young players to help the roster, but pkging 4-5 for one player doesn't seem like the right move for RS at this time. Last yr alot of us thought Ben was buying time w/ his signings. In turn we won a WS, why get away from that plan now. But we will eventually need a Schilling or a Foulke and we will have resources to do both of these moves. Trading away aton of prospects now while we still have a productive Papi on the roster, IMO now is not the right time or right pkg. when it may only cost $ in a couple of yrs.

    For arguments sake, let's say we are able to get Stanton for Middy, Webster, de la Rosa, Barnes and Betts. We then sign Drew (not getting the draft pick anyways) and move Bogey to 3B. We move Cecchini to 1B on the farm and Betts to SS or 3B. I'd still think our farm would rank pretty highly, especially after the June draft. We might have to give up JBJ, Owens or Swihart, but if they took the offer I suggested, we'd still have...

    1) Bogey

    2) Bradley

    3) Owens

    4) Cecchini

    5) Swihart

    7) Ranaudo

    9) Workman

    11) Britton

    12) T Ball

    13) Vazquez

    That's a very decent new top 10 with some decent prospects below as well:

     Margot, Stanky, Marrero, Devers, Rijo, B Johnson, Brentz/Hassan, and Callahan/Mercedes

     

    I'm okay sticking with the kids, but I do think Ben is keeping his eyes open for a chance to pounce.

    [/QUOTE]


    Really don't think Marlins would go with pkg you are offering right now. In time as FA looms for Stanton pkg will drop. Thats probably a much better time than now. Throw Bogey / Cecchini / Owens + couple of lesser and Marlins probably interested. But if RS I wouldn't go there, just my opinion.

     

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