A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    The Marlins probably trade Stanton in July and every month they wait is costing them prospect value in return. A couple years ago he would have been worth that much but by the time he is traded it will be less than 2 years of contraol and he will probably cost at least 7-8 mil per year by then. NWIH I'm giving up anywhere near that level of talent for him.

    And you know what? I'll just come out and say it again. I think Middlebrooks will put up comparable numbers this year. We underappreciate what Middlebrooks is in my opinion. He has serious pop also, is in a more valued position, is more controllable and might well even hit for a higher average.

    I know people will say I'm crazy, but for some reason when they look back in hindsight they are usually wrong. I don't give a flying rat's you know what about it. I call them as I see them and I really think Middlebrooks will be solid this year and have felt that way all winter. If anything, his spring performance only supports that position.

    After doing this for years one would think more people would notice by now.



    Middy's career OBP will be lucky to come with 50 points of Stanton's.

    They both appear to have fielding limitations.

    Again, I am not for giving the world away for Stanton, but these guys only come along once in a long while.

    I still sometimes wonder what might have happened had we traded Lester straight up for Myers and then signed Sanchez.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from javaukti1. Show javaukti1's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    The Marlins probably trade Stanton in July and every month they wait is costing them prospect value in return. A couple years ago he would have been worth that much but by the time he is traded it will be less than 2 years of contraol and he will probably cost at least 7-8 mil per year by then. NWIH I'm giving up anywhere near that level of talent for him.

    And you know what? I'll just come out and say it again. I think Middlebrooks will put up comparable numbers this year. We underappreciate what Middlebrooks is in my opinion. He has serious pop also, is in a more valued position, is more controllable and might well even hit for a higher average.

    I know people will say I'm crazy, but for some reason when they look back in hindsight they are usually wrong. I don't give a flying rat's you know what about it. I call them as I see them and I really think Middlebrooks will be solid this year and have felt that way all winter. If anything, his spring performance only supports that position.

    After doing this for years one would think more people would notice by now.



    Right. Waiting it out is a buyer's game in this case. The Sox don't NEED Stanton, but Miami needs to deal him. Also, longer to see his production and ability to stay on the field. Marlins carry all the risks by waiting since they're not going anywhere. 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Who is the next big young slugger that will be on the market?

     

    Next year's FA market has nobody but HanRam, who may extend soon and plays at a position we are stacked in.

     

    We missed out on Myers. We may miss out on Stanton. When we finally get desperate enough to pull the trigger, there may not be anyone out there, or the price tag will be worse, or the player will be higher risk.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Wish I were as optimistic as Boom on Middlebrooks.  He's not a very good fielding third baseman, and what he's going to give on offense is anyone's guess at this point.  Everyone knows he has serious power and that's why he's getting every chance to prove himself.  Nice he had a strong spring, but that's spring training and the games don't count.  His really poor play last season is still fresh in my mind, and the season before when he was so impressive briefly seems like a long time ago.  Let's hope he show us that Boom's optimism was warranted. 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

    Wish I were as optimistic as Boom on Middlebrooks.  He's not a very good fielding third baseman, and what he's going to give on offense is anyone's guess at this point.  Everyone knows he has serious power and that's why he's getting every chance to prove himself.  Nice he had a strong spring, but that's spring training and the games don't count.  His really poor play last season is still fresh in my mind, and the season before when he was so impressive briefly seems like a long time ago.  Let's hope he show us that Boom's optimism was warranted. 



    I can't bring myself to be too optimistic with Middy.

    I've been wrong many times before; I hope this is one more.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Wow, I've really enjoyed the last couple of pages--this is the posting that makes this site the best.  A few comments, reactions.  Boom, it will be interesting to see how your touted guys do this year.  Personally, I don't lament deals that didn't happen.  It's fine, I just don't do it myself.  I don't go on record much but I'm on record here saying earlier that you had the best aggressive creative pro-active off season ideas.  And yes, at first I didn't like your ideas, but as you kept pounding on them, I started to see the beauty--improve our pitching more and hurt the NYY.  And the Cuban hitter was a bold move too.  But those moves (and others) didn't happen.  They might have been great.  But I think Moon made an important point above: the secret may be to stay balanced; no plan that's worked, no plan that hasn't worked, or (in this case) no plan that didn't come to fruition...should be off the table.

    Moon, in your review of players above you've touted, you left out Mujica-- and I want to add him because your boy played an important role today.

    So BC is playing his cards well to this point and brought us to a position of strength.  What every guy here is saying is, "How do we stay in this position moving on?"  Moon's proposed trade for GS is one player too strong for me, I would rather get him for less, but it's also true...I really want him!  I have a point about Stanton; I don't think it matters if he's one dimensional.  Isn't Papi one dimensional?  Would we have won the WS this year without Papi?  If GS was our DH wouldn't he get hurt a lot less?  Is he one of the top hitters of his  generation?  We have resources we can use.    

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Really don't think Marlins would go with pkg you are offering right now. In time as FA looms for Stanton pkg will drop. Thats probably a much better time than now. Throw Bogey / Cecchini / Owens + couple of lesser and Marlins probably interested. But if RS I wouldn't go there, just my opinion.

    I agree. The Marlins might start talking with an initial offer of Middy, Owens, Swihart, de la Rosa and Betts.

    I would not make this offer. Sub Barnes or Ranaudo for owens and maybe...



    Lets look at this because yeah, this is conventioinal analysis and realistic, but would we want to do this?

    Stanton: 3.118 years of MLB time ( 3  years of control left ) at over $5 mil contract as of now.

    Tremendous power but Steamer projected to only play 126 games. Just tremendous power numbers with a wRC+ around 150. Left fielder. See the full profile here:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4949&position=OF

    but look what we give up:

    4 years of control of Middlebrooks who has hit HR at a 30 per year pace also and plays a more premium position, for less money.

    6 years of control of Owens, Ranaudo or Barnes ( all top starting pitching prospects capable of being a #3 in the majors )

    6 years of control of Swihart who in many people's eyes is our most valuable prospect after Bogaerts

    6 years of control of Betts, who was sox prospects offensive player of the year last year ( if I remember correctly ) plus is not bad defensively at a premium position.

    5 years of control of DeLarosa who is a lottery pick to me but everyone raves about his stuff, capable of dialing it up to 99 mph with an outstanding changeup also. He may end up a decent end of game reliever to me.

    Considering that we are not going to get overslot signings any more and we are not going to draft in a good position any more the last thing we should be doing is to unload 3-4 potential starting level players for 3 years of control of one guy. The only guy Miami has who is worth that much to me is Jose Fernandez.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    To me, Owens, Swihart and Betts are currently untouchable. We are probably not trading any of those guys period. They are extremely well regarded. We keep those types of guys. Delarosa, Ranaudo may well end up traded even this year but even those 2 are probably kept under contract as they both still have potential. Teams like the Redsox rarely trade top young talent. It takes a Beckett / Lowell level deal to land even a Hanley / Anibel Sanchez type load from the Redsox. They generally hold on to their top guys.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Hey jcri!
    a few comments to your comments.

    Wow, I've really enjoyed the last couple of pages--this is the posting that makes this site the best.  A few comments, reactions.  Boom, it will be interesting to see how your touted guys do this year.  Personally, I don't lament deals that didn't happen.  It's fine, I just don't do it myself.  I don't go on record much but I'm on record here saying earlier that you had the best aggressive creative pro-active off season ideas.  And yes, at first I didn't like your ideas, but as you kept pounding on them, I started to see the beauty--improve our pitching more and hurt the NYY.  And the Cuban hitter was a bold move too.  But those moves (and others) didn't happen.  They might have been great.  But I think Moon made an important point above: the secret may be to stay balanced; no plan that's worked, no plan that hasn't worked, or (in this case) no plan that didn't come to fruition...should be off the table.

    I too liked the aggressive thinking. Only problem is it wasnt close to realistic with the $$ involved, the lack of need, and all the counter moves that would have had to happen to make it work.. The NYY have really hurt themselves already by signing a lot of 35yo and 30yo to long deals. No farm to really speak of and no depth. This is why the Sox didnt have to go bananas with $$ this year. The Sizemore move was brilliant IMHO (as long as his health is ok). Same rotation back, minus Dempster.  Sowe really didnt NEED a pitcher who never threw one pitch in MLB, and a 39-40yo pitcher who completely fell off a cliff last year. All for 40M for both...At a position we didnt have a NEED at.

    Moon, in your review of players above you've touted, you left out Mujica-- and I want to add him because your boy played an important role today.

    Loved the mujica signing! Just like last year when I was calling for David Ross in Novemeber, Moon was signing Mujica's praises at the same time this year.

    So BC is playing his cards well to this point and brought us to a position of strength.  What every guy here is saying is, "How do we stay in this position moving on?"  Moon's proposed trade for GS is one player too strong for me, I would rather get him for less, but it's also true...I really want him!  I have a point about Stanton; I don't think it matters if he's one dimensional.  Isn't Papi one dimensional?  Would we have won the WS this year without Papi?  If GS was our DH wouldn't he get hurt a lot less?  Is he one of the top hitters of his  generation?  We have resources we can use.

    The cost of Stanton is too much for a guy who cant stay on the field. I said the same about Upton last year and this year its Stanton. Upton was/is inconsistent and Stanton has injury issues.

    Personally, Id rather keep our kids. Now if were talking Trout, Id consider it. Stantons little nagging injuries scare me at such a young age. Reyes has always has hammy issues since he was young, and hes on the DL AGAIN because of it. Id rather a player have an injury like Ells instead of little nagging ones every year.

    PASS on Stanton for me.

    With all that said, I really like the direction Ben has steered the Red Sox ship and where were headed. After 2014, we have so little committed in salary, we can afford to do just about anything. I think thats what Ben is waiting for IF hes going to make a big move. He has to sign Lester, just took care of papi, and hooked Pedey up last year. Keeping the homegrown core together first, then add outsiders.




     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II


    Remembering last year about this time, we were all hoping the Starters went at least 5 Innings. Lester 7, Lackey 6, both keeping the O's to 2 runs a game... I'm liking that. 

    How long before we see Sizemore or Bogey leading off? 

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Unlike the Yankees offence, Robbie Cano is off to a red-hot start.  Damn I like seeing him in that Mariners uniform better.  Laughing

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to emp9's comment:


    Remembering last year about this time, we were all hoping the Starters went at least 5 Innings. Lester 7, Lackey 6, both keeping the O's to 2 runs a game... I'm liking that. 

    How long before we see Sizemore or Bogey leading off? 




    I can see Sizemore leading off, not Xander though. I like him 2-3. My top 5

    Size

    Pedey

    Xander

    Papi

    Naps

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    southpaw, I enjoyed your thoughtful post, but have to take issue with this,

    ...Upton was/is inconsistent ...

    Upton has been one of the most consistent players in MLB:

    He's had between 570 and 675 PAs for 5 straight seasons.

    His OPS+ has been between 110 and 129 for 4 of the last 5 seasons with one season at 141, so between 110 and 141. In context, Pedey has been inbetween 110 and 131, Papi between 102 and 173, Napoli 113 and 173, and Victorino between 85 and 130.

    Also, Justin hit 27 HRs last year and has had an OBP between .353 and .369 for 6 straight seasons. That's about as consistent as you can be. I do not think Justin is the next Manny. I think Myers and Stanton have higher upside than Justin, but these are the 3 guys that have been available the last couple years. I'm not saying we have been stupid not to do what it takes to get one of them, but I do think trading for a middle order guy is the way we will have to go to get a young, relatively low cost, team-controlled player. I'm okay with passing on Stanton, if the price is too high, but sooner or later, I think we are going to have to cash in some chips and make the big plunge, hopefully before some of our top prospects lose stock value. The hard part is to choose wisely which prospects to package.

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Pedroia had a sensational game last night.  4 hits and a miraculous fielding play.

    But the thing I loved was his hit in the 7th, the one that the 3B made the bad throw on.  As soon as he made contact with the ball Pedey absolutely busted it 110% down the line, knowing it was going to be a tough play.  I mean, the guy gives it everything on every play, but sometimes it really stands out.  

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Pedroia had a sensational game last night.  4 hits and a miraculous fielding play.

    But the thing I loved was his hit in the 7th, the one that the 3B made the bad throw on.  As soon as he made contact with the ball Pedey absolutely busted it 110% down the line, knowing it was going to be a tough play.  I mean, the guy gives it everything on every play, but sometimes it really stands out.  



    I'm really thinking that with his injury fully healed, Pedey can be a big part of making up for the loss of jacoby on offense.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I agree with Pedroia's game analysis last night. In some ways that was one of the great performances of all time. What a sensational play at 2nd. Just getting to the ball #1, snagging it laid out like that takes Pedroia level hand ey coordination #2. No one gets off the dirt quicker than Pedroia and THEN gettin a strong throw off to the OPPOSITE direction of where he was going. Unbelievable. That might be his greatest play ever guys.

    And he tops it off with 4 hits. 

    Now that Cano is out of NYC Pedroia might have a chnace to be the all star starter. Let's make it happen.

    For the recod, both Moon and I wanted to make a run at Tanaka but not up to the 175 mil level he ended up costing. Of course he was a great guy to sign. Just not for what he ended up costing.

    I'd still take Abreu at 6 years and $11 mil a year in his prime over Napoli at over $13 mil per year in his 30s for 3 years or whatever it is ( something like that). Nothing against Napoli. It's just that Abreu has the potential to put up Cabreara type numbers, or at least as close to humanly possible to such numbers. I think he is a 35 HR guy with a .280 average and .390 OBP type guy. Ortiz type numbers, cheap.

    We will see how Kuroda turns out this year. My bet is that he is still solid. He should be another Lester/Lackey this year, and we could always use another stud pitcher. 

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    GO PEDEY!  Just throwing this in so you guys can get a look at this signed ball;  too bad I can't read the name but I know what that 15 is all 'bout...

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I agree with Pedroia's game analysis last night. In some ways that was one of the great performances of all time. What a sensational play at 2nd. Just getting to the ball #1, snagging it laid out like that takes Pedroia level hand ey coordination #2. No one gets off the dirt quicker than Pedroia and THEN gettin a strong throw off to the OPPOSITE direction of where he was going. Unbelievable. That might be his greatest play ever guys.

    And he tops it off with 4 hits. 

    Now that Cano is out of NYC Pedroia might have a chnace to be the all star starter. Let's make it happen.

    For the recod, both Moon and I wanted to make a run at Tanaka but not up to the 175 mil level he ended up costing. Of course he was a great guy to sign. Just not for what he ended up costing.

    I'd still take Abreu at 6 years and $11 mil a year in his prime over Napoli at over $13 mil per year in his 30s for 3 years or whatever it is ( something like that). Nothing against Napoli. It's just that Abreu has the potential to put up Cabreara type numbers, or at least as close to humanly possible to such numbers. I think he is a 35 HR guy with a .280 average and .390 OBP type guy. Ortiz type numbers, cheap.

    We will see how Kuroda turns out this year. My bet is that he is still solid. He should be another Lester/Lackey this year, and we could always use another stud pitcher. 



    If we signed Kuroda and Abreu instead of Mujica and AJP, we'd be over the luxury limit, have a weaker pen, and have Lava or Vazquez behind the plate.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I agree with Pedroia's game analysis last night. In some ways that was one of the great performances of all time. What a sensational play at 2nd. Just getting to the ball #1, snagging it laid out like that takes Pedroia level hand ey coordination #2. No one gets off the dirt quicker than Pedroia and THEN gettin a strong throw off to the OPPOSITE direction of where he was going. Unbelievable. That might be his greatest play ever guys.

    And he tops it off with 4 hits. 

    Now that Cano is out of NYC Pedroia might have a chnace to be the all star starter. Let's make it happen.

    For the recod, both Moon and I wanted to make a run at Tanaka but not up to the 175 mil level he ended up costing. Of course he was a great guy to sign. Just not for what he ended up costing.

    I'd still take Abreu at 6 years and $11 mil a year in his prime over Napoli at over $13 mil per year in his 30s for 3 years or whatever it is ( something like that). Nothing against Napoli. It's just that Abreu has the potential to put up Cabreara type numbers, or at least as close to humanly possible to such numbers. I think he is a 35 HR guy with a .280 average and .390 OBP type guy. Ortiz type numbers, cheap.

    We will see how Kuroda turns out this year. My bet is that he is still solid. He should be another Lester/Lackey this year, and we could always use another stud pitcher. 



    If we signed Kuroda and Abreu instead of Mujica and AJP, we'd be over the luxury limit, have a weaker pen, and have Lava or Vazquez behind the plate.



    The plan was to trade  Peavy or Dempster and we wouldn't have needed Napoli's $16 mil per year contract if we had Abreu.  Trading Peavy would save $14.5 mil. It would have cost us no additional picks ( we gain one from not signing Napoli and lose one with Kuroda ).  Abreu definitely would save money compared to Napoli. It was about a wash financially.

    To me Kuroda was a small upgrade plus the original intention was to trade Dempster. We still have 7-8 mil under the cap I think as it is, or enough for AJP anyway.

    We could probably have traded Peavy and gotten a little back. He originally cost us Iglesias.

    I don't think Mujica or AJP have anything to do with it. 

    I've thought about the Lavarnway situation. I'd like to have him but I don't think he is capable of starting for us. I actually like him as a back up guy replacing Ross though, and helping us out some at 1st & DH.

    I thinkm things are looking up for Peavy but if I had to pick one on a 1 year deal I'd still take Kuroda. It's no big deal though. Originally it was all about upgrading the Dempster slot. Big difference.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to emp9's comment:


    Remembering last year about this time, we were all hoping the Starters went at least 5 Innings. Lester 7, Lackey 6, both keeping the O's to 2 runs a game... I'm liking that. 

    How long before we see Sizemore or Bogey leading off? 




    I can see Sizemore leading off, not Xander though. I like him 2-3. My top 5

    Size

    Pedey

    Xander

    Papi

    Naps



    I see Bogey as a three-hole hitter, if not this season, then certainly long-term in his career.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Bogaerts sure is looking for real isn't he. In the field and at bat.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    He may not put up the HR numbers of a Myers but he may well pass him in OBP and OPS. I wouldn't trade him for Myers already. Bogaerts is a decent fielding SS even. 

    I think we are seeing the emergence of the best player they have developed since BEFORE Pedroia. 

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Henry Owens with a rain delayed no hitter tonight, 9 K in 6 innings.

    Mookie Betts 4 for 4 with a lead off HR.

    What did I just say about both guys being untouchable?

    (I'm doing my best Softy impression recently! )

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Bogaerts just shining tonight, and the minor league cavalry are mounting their horses.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Swihart 2 for 3 with a triple in AA.

     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share