A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Bogaerts just shining tonight, and the minor league cavalry are mounting their horses.

    [/QUOTE]

    Maybe Bogey is the next Stanton with a little less power and a lot more OBP skills!

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Henry Owens with a rain delayed no hitter tonight, 9 K in 6 innings.

    Mookie Betts 4 for 4 with a lead off HR.

    What did I just say about both guys being untouchable?

    (I'm doing my best Softy impression recently! )

    [/QUOTE]

    Owens and Cecchini have been my "untouchables" for over a year, although I'm always open to trading anyone for more value in return.

    Betts is really looking beter and better.

    We have some wonderful decisions to make in the next year or two.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Maybe we don't need to trade the farm for Stanton? Keep the kids and lets roll! Like the way this franchise is situated. Great team w/ one of the best farm systems in MLB. Lets not mess that up and trade the farm and bring Stanton here, then something bad happens an injury - then where are we? Next 5-10 yrs could be alot of fun here if everyone stays healthy and plays to what many believe these kids are capable. Big hitters don't garauntee anything, Angels still waiting to make playoffs after signing both Pujols and Hamilton and looks like they may be waiting for a while!

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Maybe we don't need to trade the farm for Stanton? Keep the kids and lets roll! Like the way this franchise is situated. Great team w/ one of the best farm systems in MLB. Lets not mess that up and trade the farm and bring Stanton here, then something bad happens an injury - then where are we? Next 5-10 yrs could be alot of fun here if everyone stays healthy and plays to what many believe these kids are capable. Big hitters don't garauntee anything, Angels still waiting to make playoffs after signing both Pujols and Hamilton and looks like they may be waiting for a while!

    [/QUOTE]

    I am not for giving the package probably needed to land Stanton, but there is a huge difference between acquiring Stanton vs guys like Pujols and Hamilton: age and budget costs.

    I have a lot of faith in Bogey, Cecchini and Betts, but so much faith in Middy, Brentz and offense from our youthful catchers. The issues to me are:

    1) Papi will not be arond for too much longer. He could use better protection now while at the same time, help build for an eventual replacement (or partial replacement as nobody can fully replace this legend).

    2) We will be losing Pierzynski, Ross, Gomes and Sizemore after this year. Nothing dramatic, I agree, and maybe the kid catchers can fill in without major outside help, but after 2015, we lose a lot of substance: Napoli, Victorino and maybe Papi. I think we can have 1B covered by 2016 with either Middy, Cecchini or Bogey being moved, and Betts, Marrero or someone else taking a leading or significant role in the left-side IF.

    3) The aging of Pedey and Nava. By 2016, they should be in a slow or significant decline. 

    I do not think we can totally rely on the farm to restock our offense. I do not want to rely on the free agent market to fill the gaps, but if we can fine two more Napolis and Victorinos, then we can do fine.

    Don't get me wrong, I love the strategy of building a deep and balanced 25 man roster (at the expense of limiting super stars) and keeping a strong and deep farm system alive. I can't argue with success. I can't put down how bright our longterm future looks, but I do feel like, periodically a major acquisition needs to be made, and that time is nearer than some think it may be. We can't wait until desperation time. In some sense, we got lucky with the Manny signing- made out of desperation after the Yanks made some bold moves through free agency. The vast majority of Manny-like signings fail miserably. I'd prefer to trade for a younger and cheaper rising star than signing an expensive aging one. It doesn't have to be Stanton, but I do think we need to strongly consider a bold move within the next year and a half.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Our pitching staff is another story. We lose Lester, Peavy, Uehara, Capuano, Badenhop and Miller after this year. We lose Lackey and Mujica after 2015 and Buchholz after 2016. That's all pretty much huge. 

    My guess is, we extend Lester, but we are putting a lot of faith in our young pitching prospects to take up a big portion of the slack. Luckily we have a large quantity of pitching prospects to hope for a few to rise and shine. I have mentioned wishing we had a little more quality than quantity in this area, but beggars can't be choosers, and we are much better off than almost every other team in MLB when it comes to starting pictehr prospect outlook. Besides having young starters like Doubront and Buchholz and in early prime guys like Lester probably about to be extended, we have several SP'ers at various levels of ML readiness and promise (listed by age):

    25 Workman (9)

    24 Webster (6), Ranaudo (7), Britton (11)

    23 Barnes (8), B Johnson (20)

    22 Mercedes (22), Litrell (28)

    21 Owens (3), L Diaz (34)

    20 Stankiewicz (15), Kukuk (29)

    19 T Ball (12), Callahan (21)

     

    Having 14 guys with various levels of promise and experience is a great thing, but I really would love to have less prospects with greater promise. It's not easy to make 3 for 1 deals of prospects for better prospects, but I do think we can afford to trade 3 prospects, hoping we chose the "right ones", for a team-controlled solid experienced SP. I do not think we are near the urgency level on this idea as compared to getting a slugger, but I still think we need to keep our eyes open for an opportunity to pounce.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Our pitching staff is another story. We lose Lester, Peavy, Uehara, Capuano, Badenhop and Miller after this year. We lose Lackey and Mujica after 2015 and Buchholz after 2016. That's all pretty much huge. 

    My guess is, we extend Lester, but we are putting a lot of faith in our young pitching prospects to take up a big portion of the slack. Luckily we have a large quantity of pitching prospects to hope for a few to rise and shine. I have mentioned wishing we had a little more quality than quantity in this area, but beggars can't be choosers, and we are much better off than almost every other team in MLB when it comes to starting pictehr prospect outlook. Besides having young starters like Doubront and Buchholz and in early prime guys like Lester probably about to be extended, we have several SP'ers at various levels of ML readiness and promise (listed by age):

    25 Workman (9)

    24 Webster (6), Ranaudo (7), Britton (11)

    23 Barnes (8), B Johnson (20)

    22 Mercedes (22), Litrell (28)

    21 Owens (3), L Diaz (34)

    20 Stankiewicz (15), Kukuk (29)

    19 T Ball (12), Callahan (21)

     

    Having 14 guys with various levels of promise and experience is a great thing, but I really would love to have less prospects with greater promise. It's not easy to make 3 for 1 deals of prospects for better prospects, but I do think we can afford to trade 3 prospects, hoping we chose the "right ones", for a team-controlled solid experienced SP. I do not think we are near the urgency level on this idea as compared to getting a slugger, but I still think we need to keep our eyes open for an opportunity to pounce.

     



    I completely agree moon,

    A couple years back I was hoping we would pull off a trade for one of the young Mariner pitching prospects "Walker, Paxton or Hultzen" who I still feel may have better careers than many of our highly regarded young arms.  However we do need that big bat first, especially if Middy bombs again.  It will surely take some of our good young prospects packaged with a vet to get one but either way I feel it needs to be done, especially in LF.  Nobody knows how long Grady and Shane will stay healthy and JBJ doesn't appear to be much of a HR threat at this point.  This leaves us with three guys in Gomes, Carp and Nava which isn't a very comfortable feeling.  In the minors we only have Hassan who may be a good split guy with little power and Brentz who is more like Gomes and Nava. 

    We have a lot of young arms as you said along with some pretty good positional players to pull off just about any trade for a big bat another team may put on the market but it needs to be a long term fit.

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I'm all for signing a big RH slugger anmd slotting him at 1st base or LF but....

    WE MISSED THAT OPPORTUNITY IN JOSE ABREU!

    If I sound disappointed it is because I am. 6 years of control at $11 mil a year. And we let it pass. We don't know how that works out but it would seem worth a chance even if we had to put him in Carp's slot for a year or 2. Just the upside potential was worth that risk.

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'm all for signing a big RH slugger anmd slotting him at 1st base or LF but....

    WE MISSED THAT OPPORTUNITY IN JOSE ABREU!

    If I sound disappointed it is because I am. 6 years of control at $11 mil a year. And we let it pass. We don't know how that works out but it would seem worth a chance even if we had to put him in Carp's slot for a year or 2. Just the upside potential was worth that risk. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Could be worse, at least the team that signed him can't hurt us in the foreseeable future.

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to craze4sox's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Our pitching staff is another story. We lose Lester, Peavy, Uehara, Capuano, Badenhop and Miller after this year. We lose Lackey and Mujica after 2015 and Buchholz after 2016. That's all pretty much huge. 

    My guess is, we extend Lester, but we are putting a lot of faith in our young pitching prospects to take up a big portion of the slack. Luckily we have a large quantity of pitching prospects to hope for a few to rise and shine. I have mentioned wishing we had a little more quality than quantity in this area, but beggars can't be choosers, and we are much better off than almost every other team in MLB when it comes to starting pictehr prospect outlook. Besides having young starters like Doubront and Buchholz and in early prime guys like Lester probably about to be extended, we have several SP'ers at various levels of ML readiness and promise (listed by age):

    25 Workman (9)

    24 Webster (6), Ranaudo (7), Britton (11)

    23 Barnes (8), B Johnson (20)

    22 Mercedes (22), Litrell (28)

    21 Owens (3), L Diaz (34)

    20 Stankiewicz (15), Kukuk (29)

    19 T Ball (12), Callahan (21)

     

    Having 14 guys with various levels of promise and experience is a great thing, but I really would love to have less prospects with greater promise. It's not easy to make 3 for 1 deals of prospects for better prospects, but I do think we can afford to trade 3 prospects, hoping we chose the "right ones", for a team-controlled solid experienced SP. I do not think we are near the urgency level on this idea as compared to getting a slugger, but I still think we need to keep our eyes open for an opportunity to pounce.

     



    I completely agree moon,

    A couple years back I was hoping we would pull off a trade for one of the young Mariner pitching prospects "Walker, Paxton or Hultzen" who I still feel may have better careers than many of our highly regarded young arms.  However we do need that big bat first, especially if Middy bombs again.  It will surely take some of our good young prospects packaged with a vet to get one but either way I feel it needs to be done, especially in LF.  Nobody knows how long Grady and Shane will stay healthy and JBJ doesn't appear to be much of a HR threat at this point.  This leaves us with three guys in Gomes, Carp and Nava which isn't a very comfortable feeling.  In the minors we only have Hassan who may be a good split guy with little power and Brentz who is more like Gomes and Nava. 

    We have a lot of young arms as you said along with some pretty good positional players to pull off just about any trade for a big bat another team may put on the market but it needs to be a long term fit.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I was really big on trying to get Gio Gonzalez from the A's and thought we could have packaged Reddick and others for him, instead of Bailey and Sweeney.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'm all for signing a big RH slugger anmd slotting him at 1st base or LF but....

    WE MISSED THAT OPPORTUNITY IN JOSE ABREU!

    If I sound disappointed it is because I am. 6 years of control at $11 mil a year. And we let it pass. We don't know how that works out but it would seem worth a chance even if we had to put him in Carp's slot for a year or 2. Just the upside potential was worth that risk.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    You may end up being totally right.

    Young.

    More or less cost controlled.

    No lost draft pick.

    Gamble on performance projects though.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Well Jid, so much for Owens being blase during ST.  Says he wanted to get a good start.  Ha!

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Crit, there is a reason there are multiple levels to the minors. Owens overpowered A ball hitters last year and this year he may well overpower AA hitters. But a guy still needs to go through those steps and we are fortunate to be in a situation where we don't need to rush them. As good as Bogey has looked, we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that he is in his fifth professional season already, with every step up being a more challenging learning process. Back to Owens, I never saw any of the "attitude", only read about it. But I did see him struggle against MLB hitters, which one would expect from a young pitcher.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    What was Moon thinking wanting this Mujica guy anyway??

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Crit, there is a reason there are multiple levels to the minors. Owens overpowered A ball hitters last year and this year he may well overpower AA hitters. But a guy still needs to go through those steps and we are fortunate to be in a situation where we don't need to rush them. As good as Bogey has looked, we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that he is in his fifth professional season already, with every step up being a more challenging learning process. Back to Owens, I never saw any of the "attitude", only read about it. But I did see him struggle against MLB hitters, which one would expect from a young pitcher.

    [/QUOTE]

    I agree 100%, but I'm beginning to think Bogey might be one of those special young kids that is ML ready much quicker than than the norm.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    What was Moon thinking wanting this Mujica guy anyway??

    [/QUOTE]

    I was waiting for the abuse.

    Et tu Brute?

    Undecided

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Totally tougue in cheek Moon. He was just about perfect in ST, didn't see this coming at all. But when you're a strike-thrower, some days those strikes lack the movement of other days and you can get hammered. He'll pitch many better innings for us this season. 

    PS this old catholic school kid likes the latin touch.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Totally tougue in cheek Moon. He was just about perfect in ST, didn't see this coming at all. But when you're a strike-thrower, some days those strikes lack the movement of other days and you can get hammered. He'll pitch many better innings for us this season. 

    PS this old catholic school kid likes the latin touch.

    [/QUOTE]

    I was taught by penguins too.

     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Guilty as charged--mea culpa mea culpa mea maxima culpa.  InnocentSmile

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    So, we've gone through a full rotation and are just 2-3. Small sample for sure, but here are some interesting numbers so far...

    OPS Leaders:

    1.053 Bogaerts

    1.023 Napoli

    .900  Ortiz

    .872 Middy (now on DL)

    .833 Carp (just 6 PAs)

    .833 Ross (just 4 PAs)

    .792 Pedey (thanks mostly to that one 4 hit game)

    .782 Grady

    .500 JBJ (8 PAs)

    .500 Herrera (4 PAs)

    .464 Gomes

    .267 AJ P

    .221 Nava

    --- Victorino

     

    We have 6 guys over a .350 OBP: Bogey, Ross, Papi, Naps, Pedey & Grady

     

    Decent starts by Lester, Lackey and Peavy and some struggles by Doubie and Buch.

    Over 12 innings pitched by Uehara, Tazawa, Workman, Miller and Capuano without being scored on. Mujica & Badenhop with a couple of bad first impressions.

    There's a long way to go. Let's turn it around today!

     

     

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Here is my take so far:  I was not happy with our off season. Okay, we are the champs, so one could say that improvement was not needed. One can find a reason to reject any possible deal. John Henry has spent plenty. He deserves to keep all of the post season bonanza. We looked terrible in Spring training. Okay, Spring training is just Spring training.  It means nothing. Now we are off to a slow start.  Okay.  No problem. Only six games. But put it all together, it makes you think a little. We just saw a mediocre Brewers team come in to Fenway and play aggressive baseball. The champs were swept in their first home series.  They should feel just a bit embarrassed. Is it time to panic? No, of course not. Is it time to be somewhat concerned ?  I think so.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

    Here is my take so far:  I was not happy with our off season. Okay, we are the champs, so one could say that improvement was not needed. One can find a reason to reject any possible deal. John Henry has spent plenty. He deserves to keep all of the post season bonanza. We looked terrible in Spring training. Okay, Spring training is just Spring training.  It means nothing. Now we are off to a slow start.  Okay.  No problem. Only six games. But put it all together, it makes you think a little. We just saw a mediocre Brewers team come into Fenway and play aggressive baseball. The champs were swept in their first home series.  They should feel just a bit embarrassed. Is it time to panic? No, of course not. Is it time to be somewhat concerned ?  I think so.

     



     

    My take so far is many of us including the FO were prepared for our defensive/depth challenges going into the season at SS/LF and 3B but are hoping for another dream season.  The bottom line is last season Nava had a career year and Gomes less effective than in years past due to facing more quality LH pitching in my opinion.  I also feel Carp has better splits than either but struggles even more defensively.  In reality I feel this season will be much the same defensively and hard to match offensively. 

    Middy based on his visits to the DL along with streaky play probably should be traded.  We no longer have Iggy to bail him out at 3B so move Bogy back there permanently because I don't see Cecchini or Middy as long term fits at 3B.  JBJ could be a fit but will probably not bring any pop to the lineup.  At best we may have an Ells at some point with less speed and power. 

    I say offer the Marlins JBJ, Middy, two young arms and either Nava, Brentz or Hassan for Stanton to see if they bite.  SS could probably be handled by Herrera and marrero unless the Sox really want Drew back to solidify the defense.  Both Grady and Victorino can play CF if they stay healthy with the much taller Stanton in RF and the short fence Shane loves to challenge.  Lav, Gomes, Nava and/or Carp depending on who we keep can continue to back up the OF or 1B for now.

    Finally, to possibly insure we may have even a better young fit in the OF or SS in a year or two I would transition Mookie Betts from 2B ASAP.  He isn't going to be playing 2B anytime in the near future and its a much easier position to find help with if Pede gets hurt.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from devildavid. Show devildavid's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    So far, disappointing. But I look at the AL East standings and see no team off to a hot start. Sox should compete in their division. As of now, the offense is lacking the key to last season's success: timely hitting. Hope they can turn it around and have a winning month of April. I think the strong start last season gave the team confidence. 

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to devildavid's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    So far, disappointing. But I look at the AL East standings and see no team off to a hot start. Sox should compete in their division. As of now, the offense is lacking the key to last season's success: timely hitting. Hope they can turn it around and have a winning month of April. I think the strong start last season gave the team confidence. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Our FO and many of our fans realize this is not last seasons team who probably won't have the same success without a lot of luck or a couple more great moves.  Give them time to make changes, I have confidence both Ben and Farrell will correct what many of us feel is the inevitable.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    My take so far:  I think we were off the pedal in ST unlike last year when everyone wanted changes and a better start.  That may explain some early "relaxed" defense.  I base former statement on comments Farrell made in ST like "He had a lot of innings last year.  We'll work him in slowly..."  And other such comments.  My own eyes told me some players weren't doing much:  Papi took a golf cart from one drill to another.  OK, none of that bothers me too much.  I think we'll rebound from this slow start...but I'm not in favor of relaxed ST.  They just had four months off and how you practice...The whole tone of ST seemed to be "We'll work into it slowly.  Well they have.

    To this point leaving RISP seems our biggest problem.  I think that too will go away.  Bogie and Naps hit well in ST, Pedey and Papi can hit in situations, and I think we're missing Victorino.  Once we go through the rotation one time with everyone winning, that will spur the pitchers who are doing ok anyway.

    Maybe this three games is a wake up and we'll start playing on all cylinders.  I don't see any need to panic or be distressed at this point.  Let em play unil June 1st and then evaluate.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Missing 3 starting level players now is not helping us at all. And I'd feel a whole lot better if Buchholz looked more healthy.

    I thought reports indicated Buchholz was feeling better. What happened in the last 2 weeks? The guy is still throwing 90-91 max?

    Doing a little better with RISP would change a lot but no Papi is clearly a problem. No matter who else is in the lineup. 

     

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