A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    So far Bogaerts has only cost his team 1 run at SS while last year he saved his team 2 runs in limited duty at SS. The sample size is too small to make a move to me.



    I think you have to look at the big picture a bit more. 

    If the guy you feel may be our future 3B in Middy keeps landing on the DL and doesn't do much when he is healthy you have an issue to address at some point.  In my opinion it may come down to a long term solution at 3B in Bogy who clearly looked better in his short time between the two so far.  Cecchini and Betts probably won't end up playing their natural positions much in the majors so they need to be looked at for other positions as well which I'm sure our FO has also thinking about.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Down on the farm a high ceiling prospect name Manuel Margot just hit 2 HR's.  He was a guy who was thought of as someone who could get a lot of helium this year.  

    It looks like most of the Red Sox top 30 prospects are all off to really hot starts. 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    Down on the farm a high ceiling prospect name Manuel Margot just hit 2 HR's.  He was a guy who was thought of as someone who could get a lot of helium this year.  

    It looks like most of the Red Sox top 30 prospects are all off to really hot starts. 



    All good news hugh thanks, I just read this article on him lets hope he ends up being another good one.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/manuel-margot-bostons-next-bogaerts/

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    So far Bogaerts has only cost his team 1 run at SS while last year he saved his team 2 runs in limited duty at SS. The sample size is too small to make a move to me.



    How many game will we lose with no adequate 3Bman?

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    Down on the farm a high ceiling prospect name Manuel Margot just hit 2 HR's.  He was a guy who was thought of as someone who could get a lot of helium this year.  

    It looks like most of the Red Sox top 30 prospects are all off to really hot starts. 



    I mentioned earlier this spring, that some here might be surprised at how many of our lower prospects rise on the top whatever lists to take the places of Bogey and others who will lose prospect status this season. They may not climb to Bogey's spot, but I think we may end up with 6-9 in the top 100 by next spring.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Just catching up here and responding to multiple comments...

    Amp, what would we lose by switching to Vasquez? I say absolutely NOTHING! But that is not to say that AJ is or will be a dud. Recently we're seeing his bat come to life even though he certainly does not follow the Red Sox model. His defense has never been outstanding, but his game-calling is supposed to be very good. He may just need a little more time with this staff to get more comfortable behind the dish. Vasquez and Swihart are the reasons we went into this season with two older catchers on one year deals and their time will come. Catchers arguably take the longest amount of time to develop and become major-league ready and each step up the minor-league ladder is essential.

    I'd be shocked if Drew walked through the Red Sox dugout any time soon. I think it's way too early to give up on Middlebrooks who I truly believe has five-hole hitter potential. The only place I've heard anything about him being out for any more than the minimum disabled list time is on this thread. Now maybe someone knows something I don't know (very little doubt about that in fact) and his history of nagging injuries is troubling, but he has far too much talent to be dismissed this early in his career.

    Our minor league system is indeed stacked and I got to see many of these guys in spring training. But they were all clearly not ready for prime time yet. MLB is nothing like the NBA or NFL where kids come out of college ready to contribute right away. I've said many times that each step on the ladder is vital, not simply from a learning standpoint but also for a confidence point of view. Even our top prospect Bogey struggled early at both AA and AAA before he "got it" and was ready to move on. His time last season on the MLB roster was essential to his great start this year. We are fortunate that we don't have to rush these guys. We did last year with Bradley Jr. and the results were awful. Now we are seeing the fruits of being patient with him.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    JBJ has been playing the best baseball on the team for the last 3 days in a row. I think we need to keep that guy around! He's won me over. I like how he plays smart baseball.

    We have got to ride Middlebrooks to me. He could be gone for a month or so but I really think he will produce this year but this injury is not helping matters at all. Now he's going to be rusty when he comes back. It doesn't help at all.

    Even with this, they still don't sign Drew to bring him back. That says a lot.

    With the way Cechinni has started off in AAA ball he may have nothing at all to prove offensively in AAA by the all star break. He's our ace in the hole for position players. 

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Boom, for what it's worth, Cecchini was pretty over-matched in Spring Training against MLB pitchers. I like his potential, but I'm more than willing to wait until September call-ups. He's a left-fielder long-term in my book anyway.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    JBJ has been playing the best baseball on the team for the last 3 days in a row. I think we need to keep that guy around! He's won me over. I like how he plays smart baseball.

    We have got to ride Middlebrooks to me. He could be gone for a month or so but I really think he will produce this year but this injury is not helping matters at all. Now he's going to be rusty when he comes back. It doesn't help at all.

    Even with this, they still don't sign Drew to bring him back. That says a lot.

    With the way Cechinni has started off in AAA ball he may have nothing at all to prove offensively in AAA by the all star break. He's our ace in the hole for position players. 



    I love Garins bat but you can't be an ace in the hole in his natural position 3B because he hasn't been able to handle the position or seen much major league pitching just yet.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I don't think anyone should be judged on one spring training record. Guys with great OBP skills seem to transfer better to MLB than big minor league boppers. That being said, I don't disagree that Cecchini may need more time in AAA. I trust Ben & Co. knows when the time is right.

    JBJ has only had about 120 MLB PAs. It's way too early to judge his offense, but how can we not get encouraged by his recent play?

    JBJ has a minor league OBP of .404 in close to a thousand total plate appearances. I'm not saying he will be over .360 or .370 his first full year in MLB, but nobody should be shocked if he does.

    He seems to have lost the "deer in the headlights" look from last season's tiny sample size. His defense looks fantastic. He runs the bases smartly. He's staying patient at the plate and seems to have adjusted to how pitchers have been busting him inside. Very encouraging to me, but I'm still trying to stay cautious about getting overly gushy about the kid.

    I still have high confidence in this year's offense. We may not score as much as last year, but I think the whole league will continue declining, and we should still end up a top 3 run scoring team. I think when Vic returns, the line-up lengthens and improves while at the same time, our defense improves greatly (as long as JBJ stays in the OF near FT).

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Spring training stats are almost worthless. He only had 16 AB. He's hitting .350 in AAA so far with a .435 OBP in more AB. That doesn't prove anything either but those spring training AB are extremely small sample size and almost worthless, just as his early start is in AAA.

    I'm not saying he's the answer now. I'm saying after the July break if he is still hitting extremely well I'd consider bringing him up if we still have problems at 3rd. The guy has a great approach to hitting and he should at least get on base. He probably doesn't help us much until September (if even then ) but he is an almost definite success at the plate IMO at some point.

    Players who lead all of minor league baseball in OBP oer a full season are extremely likely to produce at the mlb level.  This is a guy who clearly has an advanced approach to hitting.

    So far it looks like our 2 rookie position players are two of our best performers with the bat this season ( JBJ and Bogaerts ) and both give every indication of that continuing. If anything, I think Bogaerts has been unlucky so far.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I don't think anyone should be judged on one spring training record. Guys with great OBP skills seem to transfer better to MLB than big minor league boppers. That being said, I don't disagree that Cecchini may need more time in AAA. I trust Ben & Co. knows when the time is right.

    JBJ has only had about 120 MLB PAs. It's way too early to judge his offense, but how can we not get encouraged by his recent play?

    JBJ has a minor league OBP of .404 in close to a thousand total plate appearances. I'm not saying he will be over .360 or .370 his first full year in MLB, but nobody should be shocked if he does.

    He seems to have lost the "deer in the headlights" look from last season's tiny sample size. His defense looks fantastic. He runs the bases smartly. He's staying patient at the plate and seems to have adjusted to how pitchers have been busting him inside. Very encouraging to me, but I'm still trying to stay cautious about getting overly gushy about the kid.

    I still have high confidence in this year's offense. We may not score as much as last year, but I think the whole league will continue declining, and we should still end up a top 3 run scoring team. I think when Vic returns, the line-up lengthens and improves while at the same time, our defense improves greatly (as long as JBJ stays in the OF near FT).



    I AGREE! IN CLASSIC BILL FASHION ( DAD AGREES ALSO ! )

    I haven't seen much of the games at all as I've been very busy ( I confess ) but from what I have seen they don't even seem to be throwing JBJ inside as much recently. He must have done at least some damage to curtail that issue. His situational hitting has been terrific. The guy is just a winning player. Period.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Owens threw another 6 innings of shutout ball again tonight. Over his total of 8 starts in AAA ball his ERA is hovering around 1.1 or so. Houston, I think we have a lift off!

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I don't think anyone should be judged on one spring training record. Guys with great OBP skills seem to transfer better to MLB than big minor league boppers. That being said, I don't disagree that Cecchini may need more time in AAA. I trust Ben & Co. knows when the time is right.

    JBJ has only had about 120 MLB PAs. It's way too early to judge his offense, but how can we not get encouraged by his recent play?

    JBJ has a minor league OBP of .404 in close to a thousand total plate appearances. I'm not saying he will be over .360 or .370 his first full year in MLB, but nobody should be shocked if he does.

    He seems to have lost the "deer in the headlights" look from last season's tiny sample size. His defense looks fantastic. He runs the bases smartly. He's staying patient at the plate and seems to have adjusted to how pitchers have been busting him inside. Very encouraging to me, but I'm still trying to stay cautious about getting overly gushy about the kid.

    I still have high confidence in this year's offense. We may not score as much as last year, but I think the whole league will continue declining, and we should still end up a top 3 run scoring team. I think when Vic returns, the line-up lengthens and improves while at the same time, our defense improves greatly (as long as JBJ stays in the OF near FT).



    I AGREE! IN CLASSIC BILL FASHION ( DAD AGREES ALSO ! )

    I haven't seen much of the games at all as I've been very busy ( I confess ) but from what I have seen they don't even seem to be throwing JBJ inside as much recently. He must have done at least some damage to curtail that issue. His situational hitting has been terrific. The guy is just a winning player. Period.



    He's always had a nice approach which helps a lot going forward.

    It's nice to see the two kids get off to a nice start considering our W-L record. I think the pressure would have been building had we been losing as a result or partial result of 2 failing prospects at two crucial positions on a championship caliber team.

    When Vic comes back, we will have some interesting decisions to make, and as long as JBJ keeps getting on base, I have to think he stays in the line-up...

    1) Vic RF

    2) Pedey 2B

    3) Papi  DH

    4) Napoli 1B

    5) Sizemore CF

    6) Bogaerts SS

    7) AJ P  C

    8) Herrera/Roberts

    9) JBJ

     

    Eventually, we may see:

    1) Vic  RF

    2) JBJ  LF

    3) Pedey 2B

    4) Papi  DH

    5) Napoli 1B

    6) Bogey SS

    7) Sizemore CF

    8) Middy 3B

    9) AJ P  C

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Owens threw another 6 innings of shutout ball again tonight. Over his total of 8 starts in AAA ball his ERA is hovering around 1.1 or so. Houston, I think we have a lift off!



    I've always been very high on Owens. He is really moving up the ranks quickly and may end up jumping ahead of Webster, Barnes, Ranaudo and even Workman by mid-season.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I'm assuming Bogey, JBJ and Workman (probably Britton & Webster too) lose their prospect status this season. This is my call on our top 15 for next April:

    1) Owens

    2) Cecchini

    3) Betts

    4) Margot

    5) Ranaudo

    6) Barnes

    7) Swihart

    8) T Ball

    9) Vazquez

    10) Stankiewicz

    11) Callahan

    12) Devers

    13) Marrero

    14) Rijo

    15) L. Diaz

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Ha, look who's pitching for the Dodgers vs. the Tigers tonight.  Josh Beckett vs. Anibal Sanchez.  With Hanley Ramirez at short for the Dodgers.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Ha, look who's pitching for the Dodgers vs. the Tigers tonight.  Josh Beckett vs. Anibal Sanchez.  With Hanley Ramirez at short for the Dodgers.

    As the Boston Globe reported on November 22, 2005:

    http://boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2005/11/22/sox_agree_on_trade_for_beckett/?page=full

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Ha, look who's pitching for the Dodgers vs. the Tigers tonight.  Josh Beckett vs. Anibal Sanchez.  With Hanley Ramirez at short for the Dodgers.



    Beckett gave up 5 runs 4 earned in 3 innings and lasted four innings throwing 85 pitches.  Thank you, thank you LA.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I don't see any harm going after Drew as Moon says--as long as we stay off the cap. But I'm not for giving up on Middy.  Having Drew would make us stronger "this year."  I don't expect it to happen--but it's the right move.  Much more depth and flexibility.  

    FYI since I'm here in Bay Area, Josh Reddick is in a funk hitting .126 and there's talk he might be sent to AAA.  Numbers have dropped for two years, he's not starting now.  

    Hope JBJ keeps blooming until Vic returns, just makes us stronger.

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I'm assuming Bogey, JBJ and Workman (probably Britton & Webster too) lose their prospect status this season. This is my call on our top 15 for next April:

    1) Owens

    2) Cecchini

    3) Betts

    4) Margot

    5) Ranaudo

    6) Barnes

    7) Swihart

    8) T Ball

    9) Vazquez

    10) Stankiewicz

    11) Callahan

    12) Devers

    13) Marrero

    14) Rijo

    15) L. Diaz



    Wow, Margot at # 4!

    Well he did hit 2 HR today! I don't have in the top 10 though next April. Let's hope he goes all the way to # 1 though! Xander who?

    This is my call on our top 15 for next April:

    1) Cecchini

    2) Swihart

    3) Betts

    4) Owens

    5) Barnes

    6) Ranaudo

    7) Vazquez

    8) Stankiewicz

    9) Johnson

    10) Coyle

    11) Marrero

    12) Margot

    13) Devers

    14) T Ball

    15) Callahan

    To me any of the top 4 could be #1 by year end. I like them all a lot. Guys like Margot, Ball, Devers and Callahan are so young I don't think even if they do tear up A ball they will do much better than #8 or 9. Half of them are not even inGreenville yet and Devers isn't even necessarily in the USA yet last I knew. It takes a heck of a year in Greenville and Salem to crack the top 10 for most players in my book. Betts is unusual. He's for real. Devers is the mega stud hitter down there although Margot's defense makes him a complete player. 

    Again that top 4 is interchangeable to me.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    Just catching up here and responding to multiple comments...

    Amp, what would we lose by switching to Vasquez? I say absolutely NOTHING! But that is not to say that AJ is or will be a dud. Recently we're seeing his bat come to life even though he certainly does not follow the Red Sox model. His defense has never been outstanding, but his game-calling is supposed to be very good. He may just need a little more time with this staff to get more comfortable behind the dish. Vasquez and Swihart are the reasons we went into this season with two older catchers on one year deals and their time will come. Catchers arguably take the longest amount of time to develop and become major-league ready and each step up the minor-league ladder is essential.

    I'd be shocked if Drew walked through the Red Sox dugout any time soon. I think it's way too early to give up on Middlebrooks who I truly believe has five-hole hitter potential. The only place I've heard anything about him being out for any more than the minimum disabled list time is on this thread. Now maybe someone knows something I don't know (very little doubt about that in fact) and his history of nagging injuries is troubling, but he has far too much talent to be dismissed this early in his career.

    Our minor league system is indeed stacked and I got to see many of these guys in spring training. But they were all clearly not ready for prime time yet. MLB is nothing like the NBA or NFL where kids come out of college ready to contribute right away. I've said many times that each step on the ladder is vital, not simply from a learning standpoint but also for a confidence point of view. Even our top prospect Bogey struggled early at both AA and AAA before he "got it" and was ready to move on. His time last season on the MLB roster was essential to his great start this year. We are fortunate that we don't have to rush these guys. We did last year with Bradley Jr. and the results were awful. Now we are seeing the fruits of being patient with him.




    Jid, well said. Don't think we have to worry too much about getting Vasquez to RS this year. With 2 - 37+ catchers have to figure at least one will go down at some point this yr and will be needed. Swihart needs more time, maybe a Sept callup just to get his feet wet.

    Your spot on w/ JBJ. Sometimes teams can lose a talented player forever by rushing him to bigs. In baseball the mental part of the game is big. If player loses confidence, sometimes very difficult than say NFL, where if you talent it shows much easier.

    Also agree WAY TO EARLY to start talking about replacing WMB. Injuries are part of the game. We've seen key guys go down in the past Ells / Pedey / Youk / Papi / etc... but giving up on someone w/ Middlebrooks potential would be a big mistake. Think we were just starting to see him coming into his own when he got hurt [was swinging the bat well] we will just have to make due w/ replacements til he returns. This is a 162 game grind, not a 16 game NFL season. Important part is he comes back healthy and does not rush to get back on the field because a bunch of fans are calling for his replacement.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Also agree WAY TO EARLY to start talking about replacing WMB. Injuries are part of the game.

     

    I was talking about it months ago.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    Down on the farm a high ceiling prospect name Manuel Margot just hit 2 HR's.  He was a guy who was thought of as someone who could get a lot of helium this year.  

    It looks like most of the Red Sox top 30 prospects are all off to really hot starts. 

     



     

    All good news hugh thanks, I just read this article on him lets hope he ends up being another good one.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/manuel-margot-bostons-next-bogaerts/

     




    I'm really starting to get excited about Margot as well. Here's another great bit on him from this morning:

     

    – Outfielder Manuel Margot, viewed as one of the highest-ceiling players in the Sox system as an up-the-middle position player with five tools, launched a pair of homers as part of a 3-for-4 day. Though the 19-year-old went deep just once last year, the Sox view him as a player with the ability to drive the ball with above-average power for a center fielder, with double-digit homer totals and plenty of doubles a baseline for his potential; some believe he could emerge as a 15-20 home run hitter with above-average defense, speed, the ability to hit for average and slugging while posting respectable OBPs.

    “He’s going to have some juice at the plate,” said Red Sox minor league hitting coordinator Tim Hyers in this edition of the Minor Details podcast. “It’s not going to be his sole tool or best tool. I see him as a gap-to-gap hitter with sneaky power to the pull side. When mistakes are made, he can knock it out of the park. I think he’s going to live on a lot of line drives, utilize his speed to create those into doubles, but he’s another guy who, the ball sounds really good coming off his bat in batting practice. He has a high ceiling. It’s just a matter of watching him grow — how much bigger does he get? how much stronger will his body fill out? — but he’s definitely got the quickness and athleticism to be an excellent hitter.”

    The fact that he’s in Greenville at 19 points to the fact that the Sox believe he has the talent and aptitude to be pushed on an aggressive developmental path. Days like Wednesday underscore why the organization harbors such belief.

    http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/04/10/red-sox-minor-league-roundup-how-long-until-henry-owens-is-in-triple-a-manuel-margot-breaks-out-salems-streak-ends/

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    So far Bogaerts has only cost his team 1 run at SS while last year he saved his team 2 runs in limited duty at SS. The sample size is too small to make a move to me.




    agreed Boom. to me, it would be foolish to move the kid.

    Im still not sure how people can say that 3b is more "natural" to him or that hes a better 3b when he has just a handful of games there.

    He's a SS and always has been.

     
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