A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Also agree WAY TO EARLY to start talking about replacing WMB. Injuries are part of the game.

     

    I was talking about it months ago.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    Down on the farm a high ceiling prospect name Manuel Margot just hit 2 HR's.  He was a guy who was thought of as someone who could get a lot of helium this year.  

    It looks like most of the Red Sox top 30 prospects are all off to really hot starts. 

     



     

    All good news hugh thanks, I just read this article on him lets hope he ends up being another good one.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/manuel-margot-bostons-next-bogaerts/

     




    I'm really starting to get excited about Margot as well. Here's another great bit on him from this morning:

     

    – Outfielder Manuel Margot, viewed as one of the highest-ceiling players in the Sox system as an up-the-middle position player with five tools, launched a pair of homers as part of a 3-for-4 day. Though the 19-year-old went deep just once last year, the Sox view him as a player with the ability to drive the ball with above-average power for a center fielder, with double-digit homer totals and plenty of doubles a baseline for his potential; some believe he could emerge as a 15-20 home run hitter with above-average defense, speed, the ability to hit for average and slugging while posting respectable OBPs.

    “He’s going to have some juice at the plate,” said Red Sox minor league hitting coordinator Tim Hyers in this edition of the Minor Details podcast. “It’s not going to be his sole tool or best tool. I see him as a gap-to-gap hitter with sneaky power to the pull side. When mistakes are made, he can knock it out of the park. I think he’s going to live on a lot of line drives, utilize his speed to create those into doubles, but he’s another guy who, the ball sounds really good coming off his bat in batting practice. He has a high ceiling. It’s just a matter of watching him grow — how much bigger does he get? how much stronger will his body fill out? — but he’s definitely got the quickness and athleticism to be an excellent hitter.”

    The fact that he’s in Greenville at 19 points to the fact that the Sox believe he has the talent and aptitude to be pushed on an aggressive developmental path. Days like Wednesday underscore why the organization harbors such belief.

    http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/04/10/red-sox-minor-league-roundup-how-long-until-henry-owens-is-in-triple-a-manuel-margot-breaks-out-salems-streak-ends/

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    So far Bogaerts has only cost his team 1 run at SS while last year he saved his team 2 runs in limited duty at SS. The sample size is too small to make a move to me.

    [/QUOTE]


    agreed Boom. to me, it would be foolish to move the kid.

    Im still not sure how people can say that 3b is more "natural" to him or that hes a better 3b when he has just a handful of games there.

    He's a SS and always has been.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    So far Bogaerts has only cost his team 1 run at SS while last year he saved his team 2 runs in limited duty at SS. The sample size is too small to make a move to me.

    [/QUOTE]


    agreed Boom. to me, it would be foolish to move the kid.

    Im still not sure how people can say that 3b is more "natural" to him or that hes a better 3b when he has just a handful of games there.

    He's a SS and always has been.

    [/QUOTE]

    He's always been a mediocre fielding SS at best. That's the point.

    I get the plus factor of having a SS that can be a top 3-4 offensive SS in MLB year one, but the fact remains: until he shows he can be an average ML defensive SS, the talk of moving him to 3B is expected.

    If Marrero proves he can be adequate offensively, then the move may be made despite Bogey becoming an adequate fielding SS or even a slightly plus fielding SS. Of course, if Middy or Cecchini are stars at 3B, then the talk will cease as well (at least until Naps contract runs out).

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    moonslav,

    When you say "mediocre at best" you mean Bogaerts is a lousy SS.  I'm not reading that anywhere, so please share with us your evidence of his inadequacy in the field.  I say again, "mediocre at best" is not damning with faint praise but damning period.  It means lousy. 

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    moonslav,

    When you say "mediocre at best" you mean Bogaerts is a lousy SS.  I'm not reading that anywhere, so please share with us your evidence of his inadequacy in the field.  I say again, "mediocre at best" is not damning with faint praise but damning period.  It means lousy. 

    [/QUOTE]


    Moon would rather have a GG SS with little offense than an average defensive SS with well above average offense.

    We disagree on this.

    Bogey has improved his D over the last 2 years. Its very noticable to those of us who have seen him play a number of games at AA and AAA the last 2 years.

    I dont see the arguement for him to move off the position yet.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to Flapjack07's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    Down on the farm a high ceiling prospect name Manuel Margot just hit 2 HR's.  He was a guy who was thought of as someone who could get a lot of helium this year.  

    It looks like most of the Red Sox top 30 prospects are all off to really hot starts. 

     



     

    All good news hugh thanks, I just read this article on him lets hope he ends up being another good one.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/manuel-margot-bostons-next-bogaerts/

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


     

    I'm really starting to get excited about Margot as well. Here's another great bit on him from this morning:

     

    – Outfielder Manuel Margot, viewed as one of the highest-ceiling players in the Sox system as an up-the-middle position player with five tools, launched a pair of homers as part of a 3-for-4 day. Though the 19-year-old went deep just once last year, the Sox view him as a player with the ability to drive the ball with above-average power for a center fielder, with double-digit homer totals and plenty of doubles a baseline for his potential; some believe he could emerge as a 15-20 home run hitter with above-average defense, speed, the ability to hit for average and slugging while posting respectable OBPs.

    “He’s going to have some juice at the plate,” said Red Sox minor league hitting coordinator Tim Hyers in this edition of the Minor Details podcast. “It’s not going to be his sole tool or best tool. I see him as a gap-to-gap hitter with sneaky power to the pull side. When mistakes are made, he can knock it out of the park. I think he’s going to live on a lot of line drives, utilize his speed to create those into doubles, but he’s another guy who, the ball sounds really good coming off his bat in batting practice. He has a high ceiling. It’s just a matter of watching him grow — how much bigger does he get? how much stronger will his body fill out? — but he’s definitely got the quickness and athleticism to be an excellent hitter.”

    The fact that he’s in Greenville at 19 points to the fact that the Sox believe he has the talent and aptitude to be pushed on an aggressive developmental path. Days like Wednesday underscore why the organization harbors such belief.

    http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/04/10/red-sox-minor-league-roundup-how-long-until-henry-owens-is-in-triple-a-manuel-margot-breaks-out-salems-streak-ends/

    [/QUOTE]

    Margot in Greenville at 19 is impressive....but 2nd baseman Wendell Rijo is almost a whole year younger at 18 playing in Greenville as well.  Actually Rijo is only about 2 months older than Xander Bogaerts was when he started in Greenville. 

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    So far Bogaerts has only cost his team 1 run at SS while last year he saved his team 2 runs in limited duty at SS. The sample size is too small to make a move to me.

    [/QUOTE]


    agreed Boom. to me, it would be foolish to move the kid.

    Im still not sure how people can say that 3b is more "natural" to him or that hes a better 3b when he has just a handful of games there.

    He's a SS and always has been.

    [/QUOTE]

    He's always been a mediocre fielding SS at best. That's the point.

    I get the plus factor of having a SS that can be a top 3-4 offensive SS in MLB year one, but the fact remains: until he shows he can be an average ML defensive SS, the talk of moving him to 3B is expected.

    If Marrero proves he can be adequate offensively, then the move may be made despite Bogey becoming an adequate fielding SS or even a slightly plus fielding SS. Of course, if Middy or Cecchini are stars at 3B, then the talk will cease as well (at least until Naps contract runs out).

    [/QUOTE]

    He's "always been" a mediocre fielding SS at best?  The kid is 21 years old.  When you consider the fact that he has an exceptional work ethic, it's highly likely that he will improve over time.  You may get your wish, and he may actually move off the position at some point, but I wouldn't bet the house on it, and it's certainly not happening this year.  

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Actually, it may be that moonslav's paradigm of good SS's excludes all good-hitting SS's, guys like Cal Ripken, Derek Jeter, Honus Wagner, Harvey Kueen, et al.  I could be wrong, but think he was adamantly opposed before last season to bringing in Stephen Drew.  Huge mistake simply because Drew wasn't Iglesias and therefore "mediocre at best."  In the event Drew turned out pretty well.  No range, of course, but steady. 

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    The problem isn't so much Bogaerts fielding at short as it is Middlebrooks fielding at third.  Middlebrooks can't seem to stay healthy, fields the position poorly when he is playing, and apart from a spurt of good hitting when he first came up two years ago, has been a liability at the plate (benched for the world series run).  Sox would gladly live with his defensive shortcomings if he'd only stay on the field and hit the way he did two years ago.  Because of his undeniable power, he is getting more than a fair shot to play mlb, and he'll play third for the Sox when he returns.  If, when he returns, he remains the liability at the bat that he was last season, then the Sox will sign or trade for someone else, or go with someone else already in their system.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    There are a lot of teams in baseball who would be extremely happy to have Bogaerts and Middlebrooks on the left side, but we strive for perfection! When southpa and I agree on something there must be some sort of special alignment of the stars somewhere!

    I think we understand where you are coming from though Moon. You want a better defensive SS, and would prefer not to rely on Middlebrooks at 3rd. We both would like Andrelton Simmons at SS but that is not going to happen.

    I start feeling the same way every time I watch Elvis Andrus play. You are stricken with Elvis Andrus envy.

    But I wouldn't trade Bogaerts for Elvis Andrus even if their years of control and salaries were the same at this point. Bogaerts has given every indication of being a very special hitter. Solid scouts are projecting a PROBABLE MVP year in the mix of his career. He is a clear stud. We should not mess up the apple cart. Let's ride that horse!

    As good as Drew was defensively, the numbers still indicate he was just a little above average, as they indicate currently so far that Bogaerts is just a little below average. We haven't seen Bogaerts turn on the power. When that happens the discussion will be over.  He's hitting the ball all over the field, getting on base and making almost all the plays he is expected to make. He's even making good decisions. And Middlebrooks should be at least an average 3rd baseman in my book if we can keep him on the field.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I can't wait for the Yankees game tonight!

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Bring on the Yankee bullpen!

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    It's all about value, who cares how you get it!

    SS WAR 2012 to now:

    1. Desmond   10

    2. Hanley     8.3

    3. Andrus     7

    4. Lowrie    6.5

    5. Rollins    6.4

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    moonslav,

    When you say "mediocre at best" you mean Bogaerts is a lousy SS.  I'm not reading that anywhere, so please share with us your evidence of his inadequacy in the field.  I say again, "mediocre at best" is not damning with faint praise but damning period.  It means lousy. 

    [/QUOTE]

    No it doesn't. It means he is at the mean level on defense or below the mean at his position.

    BTW, I'm not reading anywhere that he above average or mean of defense at SS. Share your evidence that he is better than the 15th best SS in MLB today.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Moon would rather have a GG SS with little offense than an average defensive SS with well above average offense.

    We disagree on this.

    Bogey has improved his D over the last 2 years. Its very noticable to those of us who have seen him play a number of games at AA and AAA the last 2 years.

    I dont see the arguement for him to move off the position yet.

     

    It's not either or with Bogey. We can have Bogey's bat (at 3B) and Drew and maybe eventually Marrero's at SS.

    I have said many many times, I am fine with Bogey at SS and think he will be an overall plus at SS this year based mainly on his very good offense and decent defense.

    Yes, I'd love to have a great defensive SS, but I realize we can win without one.

    I happen to think we'd be a better team right now and for the rest of the year with Drew at SS and Bogey at 3B, but I'm fine with not signing him. I'm also not willing to go over the luxury limit to get Drew, so the whole point may be moot anyways.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    And Middlebrooks should be at least an average 3rd baseman in my book if we can keep him on the field.

     

    I am not sure Middy will ever be as good as average on defense at 3B, and that is one big reason I prefer Bogey at SS. 

    Perhaps Middy might end up at 1B someday, but I'm losing faith in Middy.

    I hope I end up being way off on him. It wouldn't be the first time.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I'm not sure we lose more than 10-15% in defense from the drop from Drew to Bogaerts. Drew was over rated defensively.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'm not sure we lose more than 10-15% in defense from the drop from Drew to Bogaerts. Drew was over rated defensively.

    [/QUOTE]

    He was better than I thought he was going to be last year, and fielders have slumps, peaks, good years and bad years just like hitters.

    That being sai, I think Drew is better than Bogey on defense at SS, and Bogey may already be better on defense than Middy at 3B.

    I agree though, it's not a huge differential, and it may not be worth giving up our flexible budget situation. I'm not for signing Drew unless it is at a big discount. My point was merely that we would be a better team on the field with Drew at SS and Bogey at 3B rather than Bogey at SS and Middy/Herrera/ Roberts at 3B.

    I understand that Middy still has huge upside. I have not written him off at all.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    OK, we disagree only on the meaning of the word mediocre.  I have no evidence that Bogaerts is better than 15th best SS in MLB.  In fact, I think that's pretty decent.  And at age 21 it's possible he will get better. 

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    OK, we disagree only on the meaning of the word mediocre.  I have no evidence that Bogaerts is better than 15th best SS in MLB.  In fact, I think that's pretty decent.  And at age 21 it's possible he will get better. 

    [/QUOTE]

    I have never saide Bogey is bad at fiedling. He is still young enough to improve as well. 

    I know I have a strong slant towards great SS defense, and perhaps it is overkill.

    I have serious concerns about our 3B position. I happen to think Bogey could easily be a top overall 3-5 3Bman this year. He could even be top tier defense this year, if he played there FT. I think it might take 2-3 years for him to approach top 15 defense at SS. That's not becquse he is bad, but more because SS defense in MLB is superb with a lot of teams. Is it essential to have a top 15 SS when a number #16-20 might only mean a difference of 2-4 runs over the #14 defensive SS? Of course not.

    Bogey is very athletic. I think he can improve at SS defense, and I am not dead against giving him a shot to stay at SS. If Middy or Cecchini proves they can play solid all around 3B, then I may never speak of moving Bogey to 3B again (at least until Naps leaves and some talk might start about moving Middy or Cecchini to 1B or if Marrero wins a shot at the ML level).

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Big win tonight.

    Nice to see Grady & Gomes help out.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Good pitching and three-run homers is a great recipe for wins! Put Earl Weaver in the hall-of-fame.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Good pitching and three-run homers is a great recipe for wins! Put Earl Weaver in the hall-of-fame.

    [/QUOTE]

    Gotta feel good for Grady!

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    So far Bogaerts has only cost his team 1 run at SS while last year he saved his team 2 runs in limited duty at SS. The sample size is too small to make a move to me.

    [/QUOTE]


    agreed Boom. to me, it would be foolish to move the kid.

    Im still not sure how people can say that 3b is more "natural" to him or that hes a better 3b when he has just a handful of games there.

    He's a SS and always has been.

    [/QUOTE]

    He's always been a mediocre fielding SS at best. That's the point.

    I get the plus factor of having a SS that can be a top 3-4 offensive SS in MLB year one, but the fact remains: until he shows he can be an average ML defensive SS, the talk of moving him to 3B is expected.

    If Marrero proves he can be adequate offensively, then the move may be made despite Bogey becoming an adequate fielding SS or even a slightly plus fielding SS. Of course, if Middy or Cecchini are stars at 3B, then the talk will cease as well (at least until Naps contract runs out).

    [/QUOTE]

    Ok, let me be more clear.

    The talk of moving him NOW is what I dont understand. If your 3b gets hurt, go find another 3b. Dont move your starting 21yo SS off his natural position until you are forced to by he way he plays. He has done NOTHING to warrant moving his position right now. yes, he has some improving to do, but hes far from a liability and the organization has seen enough improvement the last couple years to realize that hes going to get even better.

    dont mess with his development. Makes absolutely no sense. Not right now anyway.

     

Share