A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    So far Bogaerts has only cost his team 1 run at SS while last year he saved his team 2 runs in limited duty at SS. The sample size is too small to make a move to me.




    agreed Boom. to me, it would be foolish to move the kid.

    Im still not sure how people can say that 3b is more "natural" to him or that hes a better 3b when he has just a handful of games there.

    He's a SS and always has been.

    [/QUOTE]

    He's always been a mediocre fielding SS at best. That's the point.

    I get the plus factor of having a SS that can be a top 3-4 offensive SS in MLB year one, but the fact remains: until he shows he can be an average ML defensive SS, the talk of moving him to 3B is expected.

    If Marrero proves he can be adequate offensively, then the move may be made despite Bogey becoming an adequate fielding SS or even a slightly plus fielding SS. Of course, if Middy or Cecchini are stars at 3B, then the talk will cease as well (at least until Naps contract runs out).

    [/QUOTE]

    Ok, let me be more clear.

    The talk of moving him NOW is what I dont understand. If your 3b gets hurt, go find another 3b. Dont move your starting 21yo SS off his natural position until you are forced to by he way he plays. He has done NOTHING to warrant moving his position right now. yes, he has some improving to do, but hes far from a liability and the organization has seen enough improvement the last couple years to realize that hes going to get even better.

    dont mess with his development. Makes absolutely no sense. Not right now anyway.

    [/QUOTE]

    1) Just because SS is the position Bogey has been playing his whole life (except for briefly playing 3B in the WS last year), does not necessarily make it his "natural position". It is my position (and I realize I could be wrong and that Ben may fiercely disagree) that Bogey could become a top 10 fielding 3Bman within a year, but may never become a top 15 SS over a full career at SS. That's the part that "makes sense" to me.

    2) I was for making this move last year. I felt Bogey should have begun playing at some 3B last summer in AAA. As it turned out, it would have been helpful as he ended up being forced to play 3B under the big WS spotlight with virtually no experience. I was for moving him to 3B this winter while moving Middy or Cecchini to 1B, or at least giving them significant time to learn the position. ( realize it may somewhat impede their further defensive development at 3B, but neither rates to ever become a plus fielder at 3B.

    3) Yes, we have an injury issue at 3B right now, and we may very well have a performance issue at 3B as well. The strategy should be to look for a way to solve that issue without compromising (much anyway) another important position. The choices include finding an outside solution to 3B (like Roberts or a major trade like A Ramirez), and inside solution like Cecchini, or to weigh those pluses and minuses against moving Bogey to 3B and using someone else at SS. Of course there are minuses involved, but the concept of moving Bogey makes a lot of sense in other ways.

    4) It's not just about the question of Bogey being or not being a "liability" on defense at SS, it is about maximizing his potential and maximizing the team's potential at all positions. A GM must weigh the pros and cons of any decision vs the pros and cons of other possible choices. I am pretty certain Ben has picked at this issue more than once. I trust Ben's judgement and decision making skills. I am not pretending to know more than him or his staff. They may have evaluated that Bogey has serious limitations at 3B and would probably not become top 10 in a short time. That would change my equation had I known these opinions. Ben has access to much more knowledge of skill levels and and projected skill levels of all players involved. I am not being critical of Ben & Co., but I do have my opinions and general baseball philosophies, and like Earl Weaver just mentioned here, I value SS defense very very highly.

    5) Bogey seems to be a player that can handle himself very well. He proved that last October at 3B in the World Series. One could argue that his offensive performance could improve by not having to play and learn the most difficult fielding position in MLB other than perhaps the catching position.

    6) If we can find a decent SS right now (perhaps Drew), to me, it makes more sense to move Bogey now than it did before the Middy injury.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Good pitching and three-run homers is a great recipe for wins! Put Earl Weaver in the hall-of-fame.

    [/QUOTE]

    Earl Weaver managed B-more for 14.5 years

    SS  Mark Belanger (580 OPS) 13.5 years,  Cal Ripken 1 year

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    My thoughts on the Bogey to third base debate...

    He wants to play shortstop. He's always played shortstop. Offensively he's a very good shortstop. Defensively he's a work in progress. Don't interfere with the work in progress! He's the top rated prospect in our organization in years, let him grow into the player he can be.

    I get this position and do not necessarily disgaree. I do not have access to the Sox organization's projections on Bogey's defensive development at SS. It seems pretty clear that Ben has confidence in Bogey's defensive abilities at SS, or he realizes his defensive liablities, but likes the offensive comparative positional value of him at SS. This is a valid position to hold, but I have shown in the past that the offense at the SS position in MLB has been vastly improving over the decades while the offense at 3B has been in near steady decline. 

    The tradional view of poor offense at SS vs good offense at 3B is being challenged. In this context, the comparative positional value of Bogey at SS vs at 3B is not as significant as some might think it is.

     

     

    Now longer term the situation may get cloudy. We have two potentially excellent shortstop candidates both tearing the cover off the ball in Portland in Marrero and Betts. I know Betts is listed as a second baseman, but he's not playing that in Fenway for at least another five years. But we don't even have a legitimate shortstop on our AAA team. That shows the belief the organization has in Bogey to handle the job at least until our AA guys are ready or maybe for the next ten years. Marrero and Betts are in AA, which puts them more than a full year away. Napoli, Victorino and Ortiz all have contracts that will expire when these guys are ready. What do middle infielders have to do with outfielders, first basemen and DH's?  Some or all of these youngsters are going to have to change positions for the good of the organization, as well as to secure their own playing time, in the next few seasons.

    I agree that it appears like the organization plan involves giving Bogey a year or two at the MLB level to show what he can do on defense at SS. When Napoli's deal ends, I am nearly certain that Middy or Cecchini will already have ebough experience playing 1B to be a strong candidate to win the FT 1B position. This might change the overall equation of what to do at SS & 3b going forward. Depending on how Marrero and Betts look, I think moving Bogey to 3B will be a strong consideration.

    I'm fine with this outlook. I am fine with Ben's choices. I'm fine with not signing Drew, and have said I do not want to sign Drew over and over. One main reason I was against signing Drew was the lost draft choice. That may not be a factor anymore. The idea of giving Middy a good long look at 3B before making any decisions was also a factor. That issue might have changed as well, depending on his recovery timeline and prognosis. If Ben knows Middy will be back to 100% in a matter of days or a few short weeks, then that changes things too.

     

    By mid-season in 2015 we will have Cecchini, Middlebrooks, Bogey, Betts and Marrero all vying for two positions but with expiring contracts at a corner outfield position as well as DH and first. Simply using the eye test, Bogey, Middlebrooks and Cecchini all look like corner infielders or corner outfielders, while Marrero and Betts look like middle infielders.

    Agreed.

     

    But Tulo and Arod and others have redefined what the prototypacle middle infielder looks like. It's a nice problem to have with all this young talent and some of these guys may be trade chips to fill the positions of need. But for the master plan to work most effectively, all the players need to develop at their own pace and as effectively as possible.

    As I said in my previous post, I think Boegy has the make-up to handle a move to 3B without any disturbance in his growth as an all around MLB player.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In the long run, IF they can keep Bogaerts with about average defense at SS, it opens up the rest of the infield for killer offensive performance level by potentially having Pedroia, Napoli and someone like Middlebrooks or Cechinni producing at 3rd. 

    Bogaerts is just worth a ton more if he sticks at SS.  We are taking a position which is normally a .750 OPS slot and maybe getting a .900 OPS level of performance out of it. If we can get an .850OPS out of Middlebrooks it would be huge for this team.

    Even a potential game changer if the pitching holds up. 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    If we had made a strong run at Kuroda this off season we wouldn't be in this situation. But it was Oh NO, Kuroda isn't worth it, he's too old, he's fading fast ...etc.

    Watch him put up his customary sub 3.5 ERA again this year and 190 innings. The Yanks would be completely out of it if we had signed Kuroda away from them. At $20 mil per year even. It was worth it.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Boom what situation are we in that we wouldn't be in if we had signed Kuroda? 

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    We were losing 6-2 against him in the 6th inning a few minutes ago. Against arguably one of our 2 best pitchers this year. Removing him from the Yanks and adding him to our rotation would have been huge.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If we had made a strong run at Kuroda this off season we wouldn't be in this situation. But it was Oh NO, Kuroda isn't worth it, he's too old, he's fading fast ...etc.

    Watch him put up his customary sub 3.5 ERA again this year and 190 innings. The Yanks would be completely out of it if we had signed Kuroda away from them. At $20 mil per year even. It was worth it.

    [/QUOTE]

    Realistically, there were 4 options for Kuroda this past off season:

    1. Re-sign with the Yankees 

    2.  Go home and pitch in Japan

    3. Retire

    4. (A distant 4th) Sign with one of the L.A. teams, because that's where his daughters go to school. 

    The Sox were never a consideration for him at all, and it's not about $$$ for Kuroda at this point. You keep posting that the Sox "should've signed Kuroda" like it was a possibility, when it's no big secret that it wasn't.  Even if he would've considered Boston and the Sox actually had a need for a starting pitcher this off-season, why would they have paid 20+ mllion for a 39 year old pitcher coming off a pretty bad 2nd half of the season who didn't want to be here?!  A lot of teams did their due dilligence on Kuroda and they were all told the same thing.  Let it go, it wasn't a realistic possibility at all.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    We were losing 6-2 against him in the 6th inning a few minutes ago. Against arguably one of our 2 best pitchers this year. Removing him from the Yanks and adding him to our rotation would have been huge.

    [/QUOTE]

    Just one game Boom. I would be surprised if Kuroda finishes this season with an ERA of under 4.00, especially the way he limped home last year. He's a decent pitcher but he's not a $20mil per year pitcher and at the time he was still a free agent we had six starters, not to mention a lot of promising youngsters. $20mil plus a draft pick?? No thanks!

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Bogaerts is just worth a ton more if he sticks at SS.  We are taking a position which is normally a .750 OPS slot and maybe getting a .900 OPS level of performance out of it. If we can get an .850OPS out of Middlebrooks it would be huge for this team.

    Boom, the OPS differential between SS and 3B is not what it used to be "back in the day".

    SS OPS by decade (Best and worst league totals)

    Years   Best  Worst

    64-73   .649   .569

    74-83   .658   .613

    84-93   .690   .627

    94-03   .730   .689  

    04-13  .731    .675

     

    3B OPS by decade:

    64-73  .752    .646

    74-83  .745    .693

    84-93  .767    .701

    94-03   .771   .729

    04-13   .792   .705

     

    As you can see, 3B used to be about 80-100 better than SS, but recently it's been about 40 to 60 better.

    This is how I look at it:

    What's better?

    Bogey hits .100 to .150 better than the average SS but fields in the bottom 30-40%.

    Bogey hits .50 to .100 better than the average 3Bman but fields in the top 30-40%.

    I realize a lot depends on the Middy vs Marrero or Middy vs Drew type factor as well, both offensively and defensively.

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Kuroda ERA:

    2008 (LA ) - 3.73

    2009 ( LA ) - 3.76 

    2010 ( LA ) - 3.39 ( 196 innings )

    2011 ( LA ) - 3.07 ( 202 innings )

    2012 ( Yanks ) - 3.32 ( 219 innings )

    2013 ( Yanks ) - 3.31 / (201 innings ) 

    6years in a row as a consistent STUD. And you guys are telling me that isn't worth even 22-25 mil /per year in our current market, as contenders for another crown on a 1-3 year deal? Tanaka just got effectively $25 mil per year for 7 years counting the $20 mil negotiating fee )

    And saying he wouldn't even CONSIDER signing with the Redsox rather than NYC for another 4-7 mil per year with the reigning WS champs?

    For those of you who THINK you definitely know his midnset dream on. We don't know if we don't try. At worst case it just drives up NYY costs. I don't know if we tried or not. I'm saying I definitely would have tried. Even at 1 year or 3 years. It would have knocked the Yanks out of the running and solidified our rotation as the best in baseball.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Hanley Ramirez didn't look to be nearly as good a hitter in the minors as Xander and he has averaged an 880 OPS in the majors. We don't know what level Xander will reach, and of course we would be fortunate if it is as good as Hanley has been, but it seems plausible to me that he could be projected put up some plus 900 OPS years.

    Hanley has been a -8 UZR/150 SS over his career but he's still playing SS even now, his 9th year in the majors.

    Man, I would even think about moving Xander off SS. If it ain't broken don't fix it.

    BTW, in the short time Hanley was at 3rd ( 2/3 of a season ) he was a -6 UZR/150. We are probably much better off leaving Xander at SS. He's not going to field that much better at 3rd and NWIH we are going to find a better hitting SS.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Realistically, Drew was an average SS. Why lose the possibility of a pick, over $10 mil per year of cash, and commit to him long term when we get essentially the same offense and defensive value overall from Middlebrooks and Bogaerts?

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    It would have been worth it to sign Kuroda just to knock the yanks out of the playoff picture. Now they will be gnawing at us all year.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Bogaerts is just worth a ton more if he sticks at SS.  We are taking a position which is normally a .750 OPS slot and maybe getting a .900 OPS level of performance out of it. If we can get an .850OPS out of Middlebrooks it would be huge for this team.

    Boom, the OPS differential between SS and 3B is not what it used to be "back in the day".

    SS OPS by decade (Best and worst league totals)

    Years   Best  Worst

    64-73   .649   .569

    74-83   .658   .613

    84-93   .690   .627

    94-03   .730   .689  

    04-13  .731    .675

     

    3B OPS by decade:

    64-73  .752    .646

    74-83  .745    .693

    84-93  .767    .701

    94-03   .771   .729

    04-13   .792   .705

     

    As you can see, 3B used to be about 80-100 better than SS, but recently it's been about 40 to 60 better.

    This is how I look at it:

    What's better?

    Bogey hits .100 to .150 better than the average SS but fields in the bottom 30-40%.

    Bogey hits .50 to .100 better than the average 3Bman but fields in the top 30-40%.

    I realize a lot depends on the Middy vs Marrero or Middy vs Drew type factor as well, both offensively and defensively.

     

     



    Those numbers don't tell the real story when Hanley averaged a .880 OPS over the last 8-9 years and Tulowitski has averaged an ,879 OPS for his  8 year mlb career. Both career SS in a very quick sample check ( there are probably others ) who blew away the above .731 BEST OPS numbers for 2004 - 3013. Very few players in this league have even played that long at SS.

     

    If Bogaerts is what even ZIPS thinks he is he will do a .759 OPS as a projected .268 hitter already this year. Most scouts think he will quickly become a better hitter than that. We sometimes forget he's only 21 years old. So far he is looking like a potential HOF guy with his minor lerague numbers and early mlb performance.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Kuroda ERA:

    2008 (LA ) - 3.73

    2009 ( LA ) - 3.76 

    2010 ( LA ) - 3.39 ( 196 innings )

    2011 ( LA ) - 3.07 ( 202 innings )

    2012 ( Yanks ) - 3.32 ( 219 innings )

    2013 ( Yanks ) - 3.31 / (201 innings ) 

    6years in a row as a consistent STUD. And you guys are telling me that isn't worth even 22-25 mil /per year in our current market, as contenders for another crown on a 1-3 year deal? Tanaka just got effectively $25 mil per year for 7 years counting the $20 mil negotiating fee )

    And saying he wouldn't even CONSIDER signing with the Redsox rather than NYC for another 4-7 mil per year with the reigning WS champs?

    For those of you who THINK you definitely know his midnset dream on. We don't know if we don't try. At worst case it just drives up NYY costs. I don't know if we tried or not. I'm saying I definitely would have tried. Even at 1 year or 3 years. It would have knocked the Yanks out of the running and solidified our rotation as the best in baseball.

    [/QUOTE]

    You're not allowed to ever specualte with jasko.  No free agent we did not sign could ever have been even remotely signed or was never even possibly considered by Ben.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Realistically, Drew was an average SS. Why lose the possibility of a pick, over $10 mil per year of cash, and commit to him long term when we get essentially the same offense and defensive value overall from Middlebrooks and Bogaerts?

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I'm not for signing Drew.

    He won't get $10M.

    The pick is gone.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Bogaerts is just worth a ton more if he sticks at SS.  We are taking a position which is normally a .750 OPS slot and maybe getting a .900 OPS level of performance out of it. If we can get an .850OPS out of Middlebrooks it would be huge for this team.

    Boom, the OPS differential between SS and 3B is not what it used to be "back in the day".

    SS OPS by decade (Best and worst league totals)

    Years   Best  Worst

    64-73   .649   .569

    74-83   .658   .613

    84-93   .690   .627

    94-03   .730   .689  

    04-13  .731    .675

     

    3B OPS by decade:

    64-73  .752    .646

    74-83  .745    .693

    84-93  .767    .701

    94-03   .771   .729

    04-13   .792   .705

     

    As you can see, 3B used to be about 80-100 better than SS, but recently it's been about 40 to 60 better.

    This is how I look at it:

    What's better?

    Bogey hits .100 to .150 better than the average SS but fields in the bottom 30-40%.

    Bogey hits .50 to .100 better than the average 3Bman but fields in the top 30-40%.

    I realize a lot depends on the Middy vs Marrero or Middy vs Drew type factor as well, both offensively and defensively.

     

     



    Those numbers don't tell the real story when Hanley averaged a .880 OPS over the last 8-9 years and Tulowitski has averaged an ,879 OPS for his  8 year mlb career. Both career SS in a very quick sample check ( there are probably others ) who blew away the above .731 BEST OPS numbers for 2004 - 3013. Very few players in this league have even played that long at SS.

     

    If Bogaerts is what even ZIPS thinks he is he will do a .759 OPS as a projected .268 hitter already this year. Most scouts think he will quickly become a better hitter than that. We sometimes forget he's only 21 years old. So far he is looking like a potential HOF guy with his minor lerague numbers and early mlb performance.

    [/QUOTE]

    The 3B numbers were inflated by just a handful of players as well. Look around the league. The 3B position is not even close to what it once was, in terms of offense.

    Our 3B offense has stunk.

    Our 3B defense has stunk.

    No matter where Bogey plays, it will represent a huge differential. It's all comparative.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    As always, a great discussion here. I feel like a player learning a new position should be addressed in the Minors as much as possible.  If there's, say, a 30-40% chance Betts could move to SS in the future or immediate future, he should play 10% of his games at the position to get his feet wet. If possible, of course.

    I think if Bogey didn't soar past everyone, plus the Big club needed a SS, maybe they would have given him a look at 3B at the Milb level. Didn't happen that way and here we are. At 6'3", I think his height puts him on the fringe of the SS position, meaning, if he was any taller he'd be at a corner. We would still have Drew and not Naps maybe. (?)

    I do think if it helps the team more, they have to try things and if the time comes when the best option for the team/not the player necessarily is to move Bogey to 3B if say Betts, for example, is ready but couldn't play 2B due to Pedroia, and with 3B more than likely out of the question. You gotta make that move. Because Bottom-line, that I'm sure all of us would agree with, It would mean one more cost-controlled player on the roster. One more capable  home-grown player that initially doesn't break the bank. Dollars saved, just in case they need to make a move that puts them over the top. Well, maybe not "saved", but definitely not spent. 

     

    A bunch of thoughts:

    The Sox are looking ok thus far. As long as they hover around .500 the first month and a half I thinks they fine. 

    Lackey pitching well, until he leaves the ball up.

    Sizemore showing signs of Greatness.

    Nava's diving catch.

    JBJ & Bogey both seem like they're mainstays. 

    Didn't effect the game but, Really Umpires and the 'Instant Replay Office in New York'? Really!!!!??? You couldn't get THAT CALL right? Really? F* me

     

    Edit: last year Bogaerts was listed at 6'3" ( Same height as Jeter ), this year he's listed as 6'1".  Am I the only one who's noticed this?  

     

     

     

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Bogaerts is just worth a ton more if he sticks at SS.  We are taking a position which is normally a .750 OPS slot and maybe getting a .900 OPS level of performance out of it. If we can get an .850OPS out of Middlebrooks it would be huge for this team.

    Boom, the OPS differential between SS and 3B is not what it used to be "back in the day".

    SS OPS by decade (Best and worst league totals)

    Years   Best  Worst

    64-73   .649   .569

    74-83   .658   .613

    84-93   .690   .627

    94-03   .730   .689  

    04-13  .731    .675

     

    3B OPS by decade:

    64-73  .752    .646

    74-83  .745    .693

    84-93  .767    .701

    94-03   .771   .729

    04-13   .792   .705

     

    As you can see, 3B used to be about 80-100 better than SS, but recently it's been about 40 to 60 better.

    This is how I look at it:

    What's better?

    Bogey hits .100 to .150 better than the average SS but fields in the bottom 30-40%.

    Bogey hits .50 to .100 better than the average 3Bman but fields in the top 30-40%.

    I realize a lot depends on the Middy vs Marrero or Middy vs Drew type factor as well, both offensively and defensively.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    this is assuming that your opinion is correct. 

    Xander could very well be 100-150 pts higher than the average SS and end up in the middle of the pack over the next year or two defensively. The evidence over the last two years is that Xander has improved greatly on defense at SS And should continue to improve more. No need to intrude on that progress.

    you have no evidence that he is or even could be a better 3b. There is simply not enough games played at the position. Hes said he wasnt comfortable there but did his best to help the team. He looked very unsure of himself there last year, but did good for being thrown into the fire. It says a lot about him as a person and ballplayer. Sure, hes got the makeup to handle it, and maybe, just maybe in a couple years he makes that move To 3b. Right now it makes no sense whatsoever to move the kid.

    we will agree to disagree big time on this one.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to emp9's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    As always, a great discussion here. I feel like a player learning a new position should be addressed in the Minors as much as possible.  If there's, say, a 30-40% chance Betts could move to SS in the future or immediate future, he should play 10% of his games at the position to get his feet wet. If possible, of course.

    I think if Bogey didn't soar past everyone, plus the Big club needed a SS, maybe they would have given him a look at 3B at the Milb level. Didn't happen that way and here we are. At 6'3", I think his height puts him on the fringe of the SS position, meaning, if he was any taller he'd be at a corner. We would still have Drew and not Naps maybe. (?)

    I do think if it helps the team more, they have to try things and if the time comes when the best option for the team/not the player necessarily is to move Bogey to 3B if say Betts, for example, is ready but couldn't play 2B due to Pedroia, and with 3B more than likely out of the question. You gotta make that move. Because Bottom-line, that I'm sure all of us would agree with, It would mean one more cost-controlled player on the roster. One more capable  home-grown player that initially doesn't break the bank. Dollars saved, just in case they need to make a move that puts them over the top. Well, maybe not "saved", but definitely not spent. 

     

    A bunch of thoughts:

    The Sox are looking ok thus far. As long as they hover around .500 the first month and a half I thinks they fine. 

    Lackey pitching well, until he leaves the ball up.

    Sizemore showing signs of Greatness.

    Nava's diving catch.

    JBJ & Bogey both seem like they're mainstays. 

    Didn't effect the game but, Really Umpires and the 'Instant Replay Office in New York'? Really!!!!??? You couldn't get THAT CALL right? Really? F* me

     

    Edit: last year Bogaerts was listed at 6'3" ( Same height as Jeter ), this year he's listed as 6'1".  Am I the only one who's noticed this?  

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Hes 6'1 and like 200lbs. Xander already laughed at that fact he was listed at 6'3 and gave his real height In an interview earlier this ST. So the whole "hes going to grow out of the position" arguement just went out the window unless he gets really fat and out of shape, which I doubt happens with his work ethic.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Kuroda ERA:

    2008 (LA ) - 3.73

    2009 ( LA ) - 3.76 

    2010 ( LA ) - 3.39 ( 196 innings )

    2011 ( LA ) - 3.07 ( 202 innings )

    2012 ( Yanks ) - 3.32 ( 219 innings )

    2013 ( Yanks ) - 3.31 / (201 innings ) 

    6years in a row as a consistent STUD. And you guys are telling me that isn't worth even 22-25 mil /per year in our current market, as contenders for another crown on a 1-3 year deal? Tanaka just got effectively $25 mil per year for 7 years counting the $20 mil negotiating fee )

    And saying he wouldn't even CONSIDER signing with the Redsox rather than NYC for another 4-7 mil per year with the reigning WS champs?

    For those of you who THINK you definitely know his midnset dream on. We don't know if we don't try. At worst case it just drives up NYY costs. I don't know if we tried or not. I'm saying I definitely would have tried. Even at 1 year or 3 years. It would have knocked the Yanks out of the running and solidified our rotation as the best in baseball.

    [/QUOTE]

    You're not allowed to ever specualte with jasko.  No free agent we did not sign could ever have been even remotely signed or was never even possibly considered by Ben.

    [/QUOTE]

    Moon,

    some of us have had, or have work that allows us to have some inside information. I was in radio/tv for over 12 years and still keep in semi regular contact with people within baseball. Im not saying I know everything and I try to word it as such. But I do have info that most dont sometimes Because I have built relationships over the course of the last 12-15 years with some of these people.

    not speaking for jasko, but I know he too has some access to info that most dont. Im not referring to the Kuroda talk, but it was common knowledge that he wanted eith NY, LA or Japan, or even retire.

    the sox made him an offer  for the 2013 season and thats what was said to them and every other team. Money was NOT an issue Or a factor in his decision. Also, this year we were 6-7 starters deep that could have made the team. We didnt need another starter and spend 20m when we had other needs to fill.

    i agree it would be nice to have him on the team and hurt the NYY,  but honestly, it just wasnt realistic this year Or even last year.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

     The OPS differential between SS and 3B is not what it used to be "back in the day".

    SS OPS by decade (Best and worst league totals)

    Years   Best  Worst

    64-73   .649   .569

    74-83   .658   .613

    84-93   .690   .627

    94-03   .730   .689  

    04-13  .731    .675

     

    3B OPS by decade:

    64-73  .752    .646

    74-83  .745    .693

    84-93  .767    .701

    94-03   .771   .729

    04-13   .792   .705

     

    As you can see, 3B used to be about 80-100 better than SS, but recently it's been about 40 to 60 better.

    This is how I look at it:

    What's better?

    Bogey hits .100 to .150 better than the average SS but fields in the bottom 30-40%.

    Bogey hits .50 to .100 better than the average 3Bman but fields in the top 30-40%.

    I realize a lot depends on the Middy vs Marrero or Middy vs Drew type factor as well, both offensively and defensively.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    this is assuming that your opinion is correct. 

    Xander could very well be 100-150 pts higher than the average SS and end up in the middle of the pack over the next year or two defensively. The evidence over the last two years is that Xander has improved greatly on defense at SS And should continue to improve more. No need to intrude on that progress.

    There's no need right now, since we have no ML ready SS anyways.

    I know this is just my "opinion" and I could very well bw wrong, but when I am still reading recent scouting reports mentioning Bogey's possible and eventual move to 3B, it raises flags that there are doubts his defense will ever get to middle (#11-20) or top tier (#1-10).

    Again, Bogey does not need ato be top 20 on defense to still be an overall plus at SS. As long as he is not horrible, which he so far appears not to be, his offense should make him a good plus at SS. 

    My position is that he will become a much better fielding 3Bman in a short time than he ever will become at SS. This is an opinion- not a fact. A plus fielding 3Bman with the offense Bogey projects to have is a much bigger overall plus than a decent fielding SS with Bogey's bat. This also is dependent on us having a SS that compares equally overall to what Middy and/or Cecchini would have given us at 3B.

    If Betts or Marrero can become plus SSs very quickly, then I feel Bogey should move to 3B. I don't see signing Drew as a good idea, but I have maintained that we'd be better for 2014 with Drew at SS and Bogey at 3B, as long as we don't go over the budget limit or need the budget flex at another position during this season due to an injury elsewhere.

     

     

    You have no evidence that he is or even could be a better 3b.

    No, I don't, and I have said repeatedly that it is my opinion, but I do think that a decent fielding SS would usually become a better 3Bman. I realize there are different skills needed, and maybe Bogey lacks in those special 3B skills, such as quick reflexes, but when I keep reading scouting reports mentioning him moving to 3B, I trust their opinions, the same way you trust their opinions that he has been improving on defense at SS (the same guys are often saying both things).

     

    There is simply not enough games played at the position. Hes said he wasnt comfortable there but did his best to help the team. He looked very unsure of himself there last year, but did good for being thrown into the fire. It says a lot about him as a person and ballplayer. Sure, hes got the makeup to handle it, and maybe, just maybe in a couple years he makes that move To 3b. Right now it makes no sense whatsoever to move the kid.

    He looked "unsure" at SS too, but I agree, both sample sizes were and are way too small to make any judgements.

     

    we will agree to disagree big time on this one.

    I'm sure many disagree with me oin this one, and it appears Ben disagrees at this point as well, or he does not see a better SS option right now... and neither do I.

    I do not want Bogey movedto 3B right now. We have no SS option right now. My point is, I think Bogey would be a bigger plus at 3B than SS.

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Moon,

    some of us have had, or have work that allows us to have some inside information. I was in radio/tv for over 12 years and still keep in semi regular contact with people within baseball. Im not saying I know everything and I try to word it as such. But I do have info that most dont sometimes Because I have built relationships over the course of the last 12-15 years with some of these people.

    not speaking for jasko, but I know he too has some access to info that most dont. Im not referring to the Kuroda talk, but it was common knowledge that he wanted eith NY, LA or Japan, or even retire.

    the sox made him an offer  for the 2013 season and thats what was said to them and every other team. Money was NOT an issue Or a factor in his decision. Also, this year we were 6-7 starters deep that could have made the team. We didnt need another starter and spend 20m when we had other needs to fill.

    i agree it would be nice to have him on the team and hurt the NYY,  but honestly, it just wasnt realistic this year Or even last year.

     

    I'm not saying jasko or others might not be right from time to time on these issues, and I do think the idea of signing Kuroda was not a good one, and that it might have taken $30M to get him out of NY or LA, but I'm pretty sure almost every player "has a price".

    jasko shoots down virtually every poster who says "we should have signed _____" either on the grounds that the player would never want to play for us, or that Ben did not want the player. While it is true that some players do not want to play for us or really want to play for someone else, this does not take away from the position that we could have or should have made an effort- even if just to drive the price up for the team who eventually got the player. Of course on some of these cases, we don't really know if Ben didn't kick the tire or make an actual offer, but for a poster to speculate that we should have made an offer is not made illegitimate by the fact or opinion that the player probably would have said no. The other point he often makes that "Ben did not want this guy" may be true, but that has no bearing on the fact that a poster has the opinion that a certain player would have been nice to acquire. The fact that Ben did not make an offer is not the issue. We know or ar pretty certain he didn't make an offer. That doesn't change our opinions, but jasko seems to hint that we should not voice these opinions, since there was "no way it was ever going to happen".

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Kuroda ERA:

    2008 (LA ) - 3.73

    2009 ( LA ) - 3.76 

    2010 ( LA ) - 3.39 ( 196 innings )

    2011 ( LA ) - 3.07 ( 202 innings )

    2012 ( Yanks ) - 3.32 ( 219 innings )

    2013 ( Yanks ) - 3.31 / (201 innings ) 

    6years in a row as a consistent STUD. And you guys are telling me that isn't worth even 22-25 mil /per year in our current market, as contenders for another crown on a 1-3 year deal? Tanaka just got effectively $25 mil per year for 7 years counting the $20 mil negotiating fee )

    And saying he wouldn't even CONSIDER signing with the Redsox rather than NYC for another 4-7 mil per year with the reigning WS champs?

    For those of you who THINK you definitely know his midnset dream on. We don't know if we don't try. At worst case it just drives up NYY costs. I don't know if we tried or not. I'm saying I definitely would have tried. Even at 1 year or 3 years. It would have knocked the Yanks out of the running and solidified our rotation as the best in baseball.

    [/QUOTE]

    You're not allowed to ever specualte with jasko.  No free agent we did not sign could ever have been even remotely signed or was never even possibly considered by Ben.

    [/QUOTE]

    Good stuff, Moon.  To me, there's a fine line between "speculating" and at least 250 "the Sox should've signed Brandon McCarthy posts" when the guy literally told his agent that it didn't matter who he signed with as long as that team had spring training in Arizona so he could be close to his family, but apparently you always seem to think that these guys are robots and things like that don't mattter.  Your "plan" is never "speculation," as you also always seem to think it's "realistic."  For a guy who was wrong about pretty much everything last year, and literally had 500 posts that said, "Ben did nothing to help this team now or in the future," you would think that you would be a little more humble. I love to read "speculative" posts, but I also find it amusing when people post things like " the Sox should've did this," when the "fact" is, like in the cases of Kuroda & McCarthy, there was zero chance of that happening.  Zero, yet it's posted over and over and over again to the point where you probably start to believe it.

    I won't comment on Boomerang's ridiculous notion that the Sox could've signed Kuroda anymore.  He wants to believe that "Ben didn't even try," yet the "fact" of the matter is, it wasn't an option.  It doesn't matter to me.  He can continue to post it over and over again if it makes him feel better.  Eventually, he might realize that it's a waste of time and post something else that might actually qualify as "speculation."

     
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