A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Watched last night's game this morning as I went to see Springsteen in concert last night.


    Nice to see us win a close one.


    Sizemore with the 2 big hits might start changing some poster's minds, if he can continue.


    Sox4ever

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Hope you enjoyed "The Boss". Big win last night and lots of clutch pitching from the pen, except for Taz. I was a little concerned about him early when he seemed on a pace to pitch in 100 games, but his velocity and stuff seem okay. The Reds didn't exactly knock the cover off the ball in their two-run rally. Badenhop started shaky earlier in the season but now looks just as advertised, a double-play machine. It's good to have Miller back as well; when he's throwing strikes he's almost unhittable.


    Time to go on a little roll! Still not liking the "new" BDC. At least these pages don't fade and disappear like the regular Boston.com pages do. Anyone know what I could do to fix it? Using a mac with snow leopard.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    To this day at 55 moon I still play the Boss, Clarence and the East Street in my truck.  All amazing performers that never disappointed me, especially live.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to craze4sox's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    To this day at 55 moon I still play the Boss, Clarence and the East Street in my truck.  All amazing performers that never disappointed me, especially live. [/QUOTE]


    First time seeing him for me and the wife. Great show man. Great band. He ended with "Thunder Road" -solo, acoustic with harmonica.


    The mark of a true great band to me, is that they sound better live than in studio.


     


     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Back to baseball. Love the sweep. Let's start a long roll.


    Sox4ever

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Our hottest hitters over the last 14 days by OPS:


    .884  AJP


    .853  Pedey


    .846 Papi


    .787 Grady


    .779 Vic


    .778 Gomes


    .729 Napi


    .663 Bogey


    .625 Ross


    .611 Middy


    .506 JBJ


    Sox4ever

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    We are just 1.5 games behind the last wild card slot, but there are 5 teams between us and NYY/TEX and KC is tied with us.


    Pretty amazing that 13 of 15 AL teams are within 2 games of a playoff slot, and the Rays are 4 out. Only the Astros appear to be too far away to realistically have a shot.


    The NL is a little more polarized, but still 13 teams are within 4.5 of the last slot. The Cubs are 7 behind and the Diamondbacks are 8 out. If the season ended today, the NL playoff teams would be: SFG, MIL, COL, ATL, and MIA. Only the Braves would be repeating playoff appearances!


    Sox4ever

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    It is amazing how quickly revenue sharing and the new CBA rules have equalized things. I think it is probably an anomoly to a degree. Some teams are going to break out eventually.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    But imagine what $40 - $50 mil a year in revenue sharing is doing for some teams now. They can afford to keep a David Price for example, even with very few fans coming to the games. Teams like KC can spend a little.


    At this point the team I'm most worried about in our division is Baltimore. Those guys are gonna hit and if they can get some decent pitching from Gausman and Bundy by the time the playoffs come around, with Machado producing as well, they could go on a run.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    So, do you think we recover by gametime? Are we throwing in the towel or what!


    I still think we run away with it.


    Are any of you guys digging Choo now?


     


     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I really like Choo and spoke of the advantage of signing an OF'er, instead of a 1Bman (Move Middy and/or Cecchini to 1B and Bogey to 3B), but the cost was very high, and his L/R splits have been very very wide.


    Sure, I'd love to have him on our team, but I think the cost was too high.


    Sox4ever

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    He was a good target though. He is producing for Texas. We don't know what these guys are going to get before they sign the dotted line. I think the Redsox will be more inclined to spend when they are not right up against the luxury tax limit so much. Lots of guys are coming off the books in the next couple years.


    Mookie with 2 more hits and a walk already today. Ok, Mookie, you are finally my #1!


    The guy is just off the charts good. Can't deny it!


     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Mookie has a great year last year and then just comes up to AA ball, underage no less, and just demolishes it. Unbelieveable.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:


    I really like Choo and spoke of the advantage of signing an OF'er, instead of a 1Bman (Move Middy and/or Cecchini to 1B and Bogey to 3B), but the cost was very high, and his L/R splits have been very very wide.


    Sure, I'd love to have him on our team, but I think the cost was too high.


    Sox4ever


    Quote:



    Choo would have been a great addition and made the JBJ transition into the starting lineup much easier.  Unfortunately our FO didn't want to pay the price to upgrade the OF which may have been a huge mistake.  The Yankees also overpaid Ells so much Choo's value went much higher than most expected.  As a result Texas landed the best OBP/leadoff guy in baseball who may have more long term worth than Jacoby because of his durability and added power.  I'm not sure what the FO has in mind but I really hope the Gomes, Nava and Carp ERA in RF ends this season.  I due think and hope Grady will improve at the plate.  I also think every day we keep Middy at 3B and Betts 2B in the minors  it does very little to cover our future needs.  I also hope we make things right with Lester sooner rather than later when yet another one of our key players may get stolen away. 

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I think we could have afforded Choo instead of Napoli, but the longer term was scary.


    We could have moved Middy to 1B, Bogey to 3B, and found a cheap defensive SS to bridge to Marrero or someone else. I'm not trying to claim I know better than Ben, and only time will tell who had the better plan, but the pluses to my plan were thought to be:


    1) No issues when playing at NL parks. Papi playing 1B instead of Middy is better than taking Napoli's bat out of our line-up. Choo would continue playing.


    2) Moving Middy and maybe eventually Cecchini to 1B lessens the prospect bottle neck at 3B, and maybe allows Betts to find a home at SS or 3B depending on where Bogey plays.


    3) The super high OBP  would have helped ease the loss of Ellsbury's speed.


    If we could have found a way to sign Choo and Napoli and still stayed under the luxury limit, we'd have looked sweet.


    Sox4ever 

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

     


    Sox4ever

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to craze4sox's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    In response to moonslav59's comment:


    I really like Choo and spoke of the advantage of signing an OF'er, instead of a 1Bman (Move Middy and/or Cecchini to 1B and Bogey to 3B), but the cost was very high, and his L/R splits have been very very wide.


    Sure, I'd love to have him on our team, but I think the cost was too high.


    Sox4ever


    Quote:


    Choo would have been a great addition and made the JBJ transition into the starting lineup much easier.  Unfortunately our FO didn't want to pay the price to upgrade the OF which may have been a huge mistake.  The Yankees also overpaid Ells so much Choo's value went much higher than most expected.  As a result Texas landed the best OBP/leadoff guy in baseball who may have more long term worth than Jacoby because of his durability and added power.  I'm not sure what the FO has in mind but I really hope the Gomes, Nava and Carp ERA in RF ends this season.  I due think and hope Grady will improve at the plate.  I also think every day we keep Middy at 3B and Betts 2B in the minors  it does very little to cover our future needs.  I also hope we make things right with Lester sooner rather than later when yet another one of our key players may get stolen away. [/QUOTE] [object HTMLDivElement]


    The biggest argument against Choo was that he'd have to play LF, where the Nava/Gomes platoon was supposed to do pretty good this year on offense, or he'd have to play RF and force Vic to play CF.


    I was Ok with going with Napoli for a shorter term than Choo. I have no big beefs with Ben given the budget he had to work with this winter.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    In response to craze4sox's comment:
    [QUOTE]


     


    In response to moonslav59's comment:


     


    I really like Choo and spoke of the advantage of signing an OF'er, instead of a 1Bman (Move Middy and/or Cecchini to 1B and Bogey to 3B), but the cost was very high, and his L/R splits have been very very wide.


     


    Sure, I'd love to have him on our team, but I think the cost was too high.


     


    Sox4ever


     


    Quote:


     


    Choo would have been a great addition and made the JBJ transition into the starting lineup much easier.  Unfortunately our FO didn't want to pay the price to upgrade the OF which may have been a huge mistake.  The Yankees also overpaid Ells so much Choo's value went much higher than most expected.  As a result Texas landed the best OBP/leadoff guy in baseball who may have more long term worth than Jacoby because of his durability and added power.  I'm not sure what the FO has in mind but I really hope the Gomes, Nava and Carp ERA in RF ends this season.  I due think and hope Grady will improve at the plate.  I also think every day we keep Middy at 3B and Betts 2B in the minors  it does very little to cover our future needs.  I also hope we make things right with Lester sooner rather than later when yet another one of our key players may get stolen away. [/QUOTE] [object HTMLDivElement]


     


    The biggest argument against Choo was that he'd have to play LF, where the Nava/Gomes platoon was supposed to do pretty good this year on offense, or he'd have to play RF and force Vic to play CF.


    I was Ok with going with Napoli for a shorter term than Choo. I have no big beefs with Ben given the budget he had to work with this winter.


    [/QUOTE]

    I know you were a bit more optimistic than I was of Gomes, Carp & Nava repeating or improving on last season moon and respect your opinion but that was a huge task.  I never really liked the Gomes signing because he had yet to face so many good lefties on a steady diet.  Nava I like but the defensive liability requires guys like this to be consistently productive offensively to help our cause. 


    I could be wrong but don't see this team surviving the long haul without Grady, Shane and JBJ getting the bulk of playing time and producing offensively.  We need to improve our defense immensely and pray the starting pitching holds us up until we finally address the real needs.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    The biggest argument against Choo was that he'd have to play LF, where the Nava/Gomes platoon was supposed to do pretty good this year on offense, or he'd have to play RF and force Vic to play CF.


     



    I was Ok with going with Napoli for a shorter term than Choo. I have no big beefs with Ben given the budget he had to work with this winter.


     



    [/QUOTE]


     


    I know you were a bit more optimistic than I was of Gomes, Carp & Nava repeating or improving on last season moon and respect your opinion but that was a huge task. I never really liked the Gomes signing because he had yet to face so many good lefties on a steady diet. Nava I like but the defensive liability requires guys like this to be consistently productive offensively to help our cause.


     


    Nava's pre-2013 numbers were pretty good vs RHPs, and Gomes has been one of the leagues best hitters vs LHPs before 2013. I knew their defense was going to be bad, but as I said last winter, if we could keep them to a strict platoon and only playing in LF, they could be a big plus on offense that overides their defensive liabilities. So far, it looks like I was horribly wrong about LF.


     


    I could be wrong but don't see this team surviving the long haul without Grady, Shane and JBJ getting the bulk of playing time and producing offensively. We need to improve our defense immensely and pray the starting pitching holds us up until we finally address the real needs.


     


    An OF or JBJ, Grady and Vic is very very good defensively. Vic should start helping out on offense. Pedeys seems to have settled into the lead off role. I share your concern about our offense. I know it was a gamble to put our hopes on 3 youngsters at CF (JBJ), SS (Bogey) and 3B (Middy), but we still have some budget flexibility to make a move at the deadline to cover the one who seems to be the weakest link by then, or perhaps find a LF big bopper.


     


    I'm not giving up hope. As long as our pitching remains number 1 in WAR (or top 3), we should stay in this thing to the end. Let's give these 3 kids a longer look. Let's see if Grady can snap out of this slump (if that's what it is): let's give Nava another chance if he doesn't. If LF looks like a disaster by the deadline, maybe LF will be the weak link that needs fixing more than 3B/SS or CF. I don't see Bogey being sent down. I doubt JBJ proves to be an overall weaker link than Middy or whoever is in LF. Bogey may be moved to 3B, if we find a SS, but I think if a big move is made, it will be at 3B or LF. I also think we may give Cecchini a look at 3B before the deadline, if Middy keeps struggling.


     


    Sox4ever

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    The original idea was to get Abreu for 1st and take the pick for Napoli. That would have saved a lot of cash right there and penciled in a cost controlled stud at 1st for 6 years. Then sign Choo for LF whose hit chart was great for Fenway as a doubles and HR machine, and great onbase guy ( I preferred him over Ellsbury due to the fit with our OBP approach and his hit chart being more optionized for Fenway ). I was convinced they were going to make a run at Choo. His hit chart was Papiesque!


    It would have involved trading Nava or Carp. I wanted to sign Kuroda or Tanaka and trade Dempster or Peavy, knocking the Yanks out of contention. When Abreu became unavailable I swithed to try to trade for Billy Butler for 1st base.


    I wanted Rajai Davis as our OF sub. Pierzynski was option #3 at catcher ( I prefered 2 others ideally...Ruiz and someone else I can't remember ). Go with internal solutions at relief pitcher. 


    Ahh hindsight!

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]


    The original idea was to get Abreu for 1st and take the pick for Napoli. That would have saved a lot of cash right there and penciled in a cost controlled stud at 1st for 6 years. Then sign Choo for LF whose hit chart was great for Fenway as a doubles and HR machine, and great onbase guy ( I preferred him over Ellsbury due to the fit with our OBP approach and his hit chart being more optionized for Fenway ). I was convinced they were going to make a run at Choo. His hit chart was Papiesque!


    It would have involved trading Nava or Carp. I wanted to sign Kuroda or Tanaka and trade Dempster or Peavy, knocking the Yanks out of contention. When Abreu became unavailable I swithed to try to trade for Billy Butler for 1st base.


    I wanted Rajai Davis as our OF sub. Pierzynski was option #3 at catcher ( I prefered 2 others ideally...Ruiz and someone else I can't remember ). Go with internal solutions at relief pitcher. 


    Ahh hindsight! [/QUOTE] [object HTMLDivElement]


    Getting Choo would have cancelled out the pick gained for letting Napoli walk, but that part of the plan would have looked nice (Abreu & Choo instead of Napoli & Grady).


    I liked Tanaka.


    I think if we signed Kuroda or Tanaka, the Yanks would have just gotten somebody else, so I do not see signing one of them as closing out the Yanks.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Boom, the animal rescue league is filing a complaint because of the way you continuously beat that dead horse. We have the team we have; end of story.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    We are currently 19th in defense as a team (-1.8 UZR/150).


    By position:


    4th at 2B at +11.3


    4th at 1B +6.9


    7th at C  +3.9


    13th in LF +0.1


    17th in RF -4.1


    19th in CF -1.9 (JBJ +11.4, but Grady -44.2)


    21st at SS -7.2


    26th at 3B -14.6


     


    Sox4ever

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Offense Ranking by Position (from Fangraph's value page batting category)


    3rd DH +4.3


    7th 2B +3.2


    8th 1B +6.6


    12th SS -0.3


    19th C -2.5


    20th LF -3.7


    22nd 3B -5.1


    23rd CF -5.2


    23rd RF -6.5


    Sox4ever

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Team batting ranking:


    16th -5.8


     


    Team Pitching WAR


    1st +6.8


     


    Fangraph's team base running ranking:


    30th Red Sox -9.1


     


    Sox4ever

     

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