A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I think we could have afforded Choo instead of Napoli, but the longer term was scary.


    We could have moved Middy to 1B, Bogey to 3B, and found a cheap defensive SS to bridge to Marrero or someone else. I'm not trying to claim I know better than Ben, and only time will tell who had the better plan, but the pluses to my plan were thought to be:


    1) No issues when playing at NL parks. Papi playing 1B instead of Middy is better than taking Napoli's bat out of our line-up. Choo would continue playing.


    2) Moving Middy and maybe eventually Cecchini to 1B lessens the prospect bottle neck at 3B, and maybe allows Betts to find a home at SS or 3B depending on where Bogey plays.


    3) The super high OBP  would have helped ease the loss of Ellsbury's speed.


    If we could have found a way to sign Choo and Napoli and still stayed under the luxury limit, we'd have looked sweet.


    Sox4ever 

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

     


    Sox4ever

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to craze4sox's comment:


    In response to moonslav59's comment:


    I really like Choo and spoke of the advantage of signing an OF'er, instead of a 1Bman (Move Middy and/or Cecchini to 1B and Bogey to 3B), but the cost was very high, and his L/R splits have been very very wide.


    Sure, I'd love to have him on our team, but I think the cost was too high.


    Sox4ever


    Quote:


    Choo would have been a great addition and made the JBJ transition into the starting lineup much easier.  Unfortunately our FO didn't want to pay the price to upgrade the OF which may have been a huge mistake.  The Yankees also overpaid Ells so much Choo's value went much higher than most expected.  As a result Texas landed the best OBP/leadoff guy in baseball who may have more long term worth than Jacoby because of his durability and added power.  I'm not sure what the FO has in mind but I really hope the Gomes, Nava and Carp ERA in RF ends this season.  I due think and hope Grady will improve at the plate.  I also think every day we keep Middy at 3B and Betts 2B in the minors  it does very little to cover our future needs.  I also hope we make things right with Lester sooner rather than later when yet another one of our key players may get stolen away. 

     [object HTMLDivElement]


    The biggest argument against Choo was that he'd have to play LF, where the Nava/Gomes platoon was supposed to do pretty good this year on offense, or he'd have to play RF and force Vic to play CF.


    I was Ok with going with Napoli for a shorter term than Choo. I have no big beefs with Ben given the budget he had to work with this winter.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:


    In response to craze4sox's comment:


     


    In response to moonslav59's comment:


     


    I really like Choo and spoke of the advantage of signing an OF'er, instead of a 1Bman (Move Middy and/or Cecchini to 1B and Bogey to 3B), but the cost was very high, and his L/R splits have been very very wide.


     


    Sure, I'd love to have him on our team, but I think the cost was too high.


     


    Sox4ever


     


    Quote:


     


    Choo would have been a great addition and made the JBJ transition into the starting lineup much easier.  Unfortunately our FO didn't want to pay the price to upgrade the OF which may have been a huge mistake.  The Yankees also overpaid Ells so much Choo's value went much higher than most expected.  As a result Texas landed the best OBP/leadoff guy in baseball who may have more long term worth than Jacoby because of his durability and added power.  I'm not sure what the FO has in mind but I really hope the Gomes, Nava and Carp ERA in RF ends this season.  I due think and hope Grady will improve at the plate.  I also think every day we keep Middy at 3B and Betts 2B in the minors  it does very little to cover our future needs.  I also hope we make things right with Lester sooner rather than later when yet another one of our key players may get stolen away. 

     [object HTMLDivElement]


     


    The biggest argument against Choo was that he'd have to play LF, where the Nava/Gomes platoon was supposed to do pretty good this year on offense, or he'd have to play RF and force Vic to play CF.


    I was Ok with going with Napoli for a shorter term than Choo. I have no big beefs with Ben given the budget he had to work with this winter.




    I know you were a bit more optimistic than I was of Gomes, Carp & Nava repeating or improving on last season moon and respect your opinion but that was a huge task.  I never really liked the Gomes signing because he had yet to face so many good lefties on a steady diet.  Nava I like but the defensive liability requires guys like this to be consistently productive offensively to help our cause. 


    I could be wrong but don't see this team surviving the long haul without Grady, Shane and JBJ getting the bulk of playing time and producing offensively.  We need to improve our defense immensely and pray the starting pitching holds us up until we finally address the real needs.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    The biggest argument against Choo was that he'd have to play LF, where the Nava/Gomes platoon was supposed to do pretty good this year on offense, or he'd have to play RF and force Vic to play CF.


     



    I was Ok with going with Napoli for a shorter term than Choo. I have no big beefs with Ben given the budget he had to work with this winter.


     



    [/QUOTE]


     


    I know you were a bit more optimistic than I was of Gomes, Carp & Nava repeating or improving on last season moon and respect your opinion but that was a huge task. I never really liked the Gomes signing because he had yet to face so many good lefties on a steady diet. Nava I like but the defensive liability requires guys like this to be consistently productive offensively to help our cause.


     


    Nava's pre-2013 numbers were pretty good vs RHPs, and Gomes has been one of the leagues best hitters vs LHPs before 2013. I knew their defense was going to be bad, but as I said last winter, if we could keep them to a strict platoon and only playing in LF, they could be a big plus on offense that overides their defensive liabilities. So far, it looks like I was horribly wrong about LF.


     


    I could be wrong but don't see this team surviving the long haul without Grady, Shane and JBJ getting the bulk of playing time and producing offensively. We need to improve our defense immensely and pray the starting pitching holds us up until we finally address the real needs.


     


    An OF or JBJ, Grady and Vic is very very good defensively. Vic should start helping out on offense. Pedeys seems to have settled into the lead off role. I share your concern about our offense. I know it was a gamble to put our hopes on 3 youngsters at CF (JBJ), SS (Bogey) and 3B (Middy), but we still have some budget flexibility to make a move at the deadline to cover the one who seems to be the weakest link by then, or perhaps find a LF big bopper.


     


    I'm not giving up hope. As long as our pitching remains number 1 in WAR (or top 3), we should stay in this thing to the end. Let's give these 3 kids a longer look. Let's see if Grady can snap out of this slump (if that's what it is): let's give Nava another chance if he doesn't. If LF looks like a disaster by the deadline, maybe LF will be the weak link that needs fixing more than 3B/SS or CF. I don't see Bogey being sent down. I doubt JBJ proves to be an overall weaker link than Middy or whoever is in LF. Bogey may be moved to 3B, if we find a SS, but I think if a big move is made, it will be at 3B or LF. I also think we may give Cecchini a look at 3B before the deadline, if Middy keeps struggling.


     


    Sox4ever

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    The original idea was to get Abreu for 1st and take the pick for Napoli. That would have saved a lot of cash right there and penciled in a cost controlled stud at 1st for 6 years. Then sign Choo for LF whose hit chart was great for Fenway as a doubles and HR machine, and great onbase guy ( I preferred him over Ellsbury due to the fit with our OBP approach and his hit chart being more optionized for Fenway ). I was convinced they were going to make a run at Choo. His hit chart was Papiesque!


    It would have involved trading Nava or Carp. I wanted to sign Kuroda or Tanaka and trade Dempster or Peavy, knocking the Yanks out of contention. When Abreu became unavailable I swithed to try to trade for Billy Butler for 1st base.


    I wanted Rajai Davis as our OF sub. Pierzynski was option #3 at catcher ( I prefered 2 others ideally...Ruiz and someone else I can't remember ). Go with internal solutions at relief pitcher. 


    Ahh hindsight!

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:


    The original idea was to get Abreu for 1st and take the pick for Napoli. That would have saved a lot of cash right there and penciled in a cost controlled stud at 1st for 6 years. Then sign Choo for LF whose hit chart was great for Fenway as a doubles and HR machine, and great onbase guy ( I preferred him over Ellsbury due to the fit with our OBP approach and his hit chart being more optionized for Fenway ). I was convinced they were going to make a run at Choo. His hit chart was Papiesque!


    It would have involved trading Nava or Carp. I wanted to sign Kuroda or Tanaka and trade Dempster or Peavy, knocking the Yanks out of contention. When Abreu became unavailable I swithed to try to trade for Billy Butler for 1st base.


    I wanted Rajai Davis as our OF sub. Pierzynski was option #3 at catcher ( I prefered 2 others ideally...Ruiz and someone else I can't remember ). Go with internal solutions at relief pitcher. 


    Ahh hindsight! 

     [object HTMLDivElement]


    Getting Choo would have cancelled out the pick gained for letting Napoli walk, but that part of the plan would have looked nice (Abreu & Choo instead of Napoli & Grady).


    I liked Tanaka.


    I think if we signed Kuroda or Tanaka, the Yanks would have just gotten somebody else, so I do not see signing one of them as closing out the Yanks.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Boom, the animal rescue league is filing a complaint because of the way you continuously beat that dead horse. We have the team we have; end of story.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    We are currently 19th in defense as a team (-1.8 UZR/150).


    By position:


    4th at 2B at +11.3


    4th at 1B +6.9


    7th at C  +3.9


    13th in LF +0.1


    17th in RF -4.1


    19th in CF -1.9 (JBJ +11.4, but Grady -44.2)


    21st at SS -7.2


    26th at 3B -14.6


     


    Sox4ever

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Offense Ranking by Position (from Fangraph's value page batting category)


    3rd DH +4.3


    7th 2B +3.2


    8th 1B +6.6


    12th SS -0.3


    19th C -2.5


    20th LF -3.7


    22nd 3B -5.1


    23rd CF -5.2


    23rd RF -6.5


    Sox4ever

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Team batting ranking:


    16th -5.8


     


    Team Pitching WAR


    1st +6.8


     


    Fangraph's team base running ranking:


    30th Red Sox -9.1


     


    Sox4ever

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Look at what it would have resulted in though Jidge:


    Choo is hitting .333 with a .465  OBP


    Abreu is hitting .273 with 13 HR ( 8 more HR than Napoli so far ).


    Tanaka: 5 Wins, 0 Losses 2.57 ERA.


    (If we couldn't get Tanaka then Kuroda: 2 wins 3 losses 4.43 ERA)


     


    Rajai Davis: .303 BA in 109 AB, 12 SB, 2 CS


    We would be leading the league in hitting right now and stealing bases. Both big problems for this team.


    Tanaka ended up costing too much but I think we could have landed the rest of them, except Kuroda, and we would have a better team if we did.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Even if we don't sign Napoli, Mujica, Badenhop, Capuano, and Sizemore, I don't think we can stay under the limit by signing Abreu, Tanaka/Kuroda and Choo. 


    A lot of us liked all these guys, but few were as adamant about signing them as boom. Even fewer wanted 3 big guns or felt we should go over the limit. I realize we shed a lot of salary next year, so going over for one year might not have been that damaging, but by staying under this year, we will be well set-up for the next few years to plug in some big names where needed.


    This year, to me, is the true "bridge year". We will know more about SS, 3B, CF, and maybe Catcher by year's end. The worst slot can be filled by a FA signing. LF will probably be our big gun pick-up next winter.


    Sox4ever

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    As we discussed, we would have had to unload a pitcher's salary, which we did end up doing but we then signed Capuano. Tanaka was clearly out of reach but worth a run at. I think we could have gotten Kuroda rather than Tanaka though in a short term deal. We still have $7 mil or so under the cap don't we. Mujica was $6 mil or so was't he and Sizemore will be $5-6 mil before we are through. We would be trading Nava or Carp in that scenario and replacing them with a $5 mil Davis. It would be close.


    Even if it were Choo, Davis and Abreu only it would have transformed this team. We would be in 1st place right now, easily.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Alright, I made my point. You see, my goal in life is to impress Rigatoni. What is your next identity going to be by the way, Linguini? or Tamale?

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Wow, we are potentially losing 8 free agents next year. Sounds like a good time for a youth infusion:


    http://bleacherreport.com/tb/dd588?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=boston-red-sox

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    As we discussed, we would have had to unload a pitcher's salary, which we did end up doing but we then signed Capuano. Tanaka was clearly out of reach but worth a run at. I think we could have gotten Kuroda rather than Tanaka though in a short term deal. We still have $7 mil or so under the cap don't we. Mujica was $6 mil or so was't he and Sizemore will be $5-6 mil before we are through. We would be trading Nava or Carp in that scenario and replacing them with a $5 mil Davis. It would be close.

    Even if it were Choo, Davis and Abreu only it would have transformed this team. We would be in 1st place right now, easily.

    [object HTMLDivElement]

    Certainly it appears that way, but one never knows for sure.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     [object HTMLDivElement]

    Yeah, maybe 8, but some huge huge shoes to fill.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    From MLBTR

    Huascar Ynoa, the younger brother of A’s righty Michael Ynoa, could land also land a seven-figure bonus and has been scouted by White Sox vice president Kenny Williams and GM Rick Hahn. The Red Sox have also been tied to Ynoa, and some sources of have told Badler that they expect the Twins to be involved as well. One scout told Badler that Ynoa has the tools to be a frontline starter but lacks consistency. Badler points out that his older brother’s $4.25MM signing bonus from Oakland reduces some of the urgency for Ynoa to sign immediately on July 2

    Sox4ever

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    As we discussed, we would have had to unload a pitcher's salary, which we did end up doing but we then signed Capuano. Tanaka was clearly out of reach but worth a run at. I think we could have gotten Kuroda rather than Tanaka though in a short term deal. We still have $7 mil or so under the cap don't we. Mujica was $6 mil or so was't he and Sizemore will be $5-6 mil before we are through. We would be trading Nava or Carp in that scenario and replacing them with a $5 mil Davis. It would be close.

     

    Even if it were Choo, Davis and Abreu only it would have transformed this team. We would be in 1st place right now, easily.



    Kuroda has an ERA of 4.62 and an ERA+ of 89 this year. He is also 39 years old. Signing him would have been a mistake. Tanaka has been good so far, but is clearly not worth the money. Neither is Choo. I am glad we avoided all three of those players.

    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Kuroda's FIP is 3.71 with a 1.233 WHIP. He is going to be fine. The worst problem he has is the relief core coming in after him.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I think we have about $9M to spend and stay under the luxury limit, but looking back in hindsight, I guess we could have not signed Mujica and Badenhop to save about $7M, but I didn't remember anyone coming out against those signings at the time. Add those salaries to Napoli's $16M, and in theory, we might have had about $32M. We might have gotten Abreu for $12M x 6 and Choo for $20M x 7.

    I still don't see how we get Tanaka or Kuroda and stay under the limit, even if we dealt away Peavy or Lackey. I'd rather have both of them over Kuroda anyway.

    I liked Choo, but if we were going to spend that much on a LF'er, I'd rather have just kept Jacoby in CF. Good LF'ers are easier and cheaper to find.

    Sox4ever

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Kuroda's FIP is 3.71 with a 1.233 WHIP. He is going to be fine. The worst problem he has is the relief core coming in after him.

     [object HTMLDivElement]

    I could be wrong, but I don't think I ever have seen you use FIP as a measuring stick before.

    Kuroda may "be fine", but he may get worse as well.

    His 1.233 WHIP is a career worst and over 0.07 higher than last year. (o.05 more than his career #)

    It's 1.30 over his last 5 starts. It was 1.319 over his last 13 starts of 2013. It was about 1.46 over his last 10 starts of 2013.

    Surely, you know he could easily never approach his past numbers again, right? I mean, there is a good chance he may never get below 1.22, right?

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I don't see why people are assuming Kuroda won't be an animal again this year. He is obviously hurting from some horrible defense behind him and the relief corp isn't helping. His strikeouts are on pace with last year and his walks are even down. If he had average defense behind him he would have an ERA of 3.71. That would be our #2 or 3 starter, which was the whole point in wanting to sign him last winter. He was exactly what you have been proposing for years, a guy who upgrades the top of the rotation and I have no problem with a 2 year deal even with him. He has been rock solid for 6 years in a row. How many pitchers in baseball can you say that about? 

    I get that he was a tough sign, apparently from that misplaced Japanese extremely loyalty to their team thing, but I don't see why we wouldn't want this guy in our rotation. I also see the cost issue and the lost pick but I'd take him over Peavy or Dempster in a heartbeat and that was what we were discussing last winter.

    They look to be putting $6-7 mil into Sizemore also. You could have used that money instead of trading Nava or Carp. It was realistic.

    On another note, Betts had another great night last night. 2 more SB and great OBP again. What are the chances he ends up our RF in place of Victorino, or JBJ there and with Betts in CF, maybe Cechinni in LF. I don't see a future for Brentz or Hassan, at least as starters with the Sox.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Anyone who thinks Kuroda has been a victim of poor defense so far this year hasn't been watching him pitch. See alot of Yankee games here in CT. The guy has been hit hard this year, seems to lose it for one inning, and gets rocked. After the way he finished last year, not sure 2 yr deal would have been a wise investment. Given what Yankees are paying him, Peavy is bargain.

    Doubront needs to get on track in a hurry hopefully it starts tonight. If I were Ben would find some mystery injury and send Buchholz down to farm to get strength or straightened out. Peavy's not the problem these 2 guys are. Bats have also been poor, just when it looked like Middlebrooks was getting hot he gets hurt seems to be a pattern. JBJ has been a dissapointment but think we need to ride it out a bit longer and see if he can be a everyday MLB CF'er? Defensively he's an upgrade. Naps, Vic, Pedey, and Ortiz seem to be the entire offense, need to get more from others or lineup to easy to pitch to.

    Hate to say it but trading Nava this past offseason, wasn't such a bad idea after all. Always best to sell when stocks are at a high.

     

     
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