Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II
posted at 5/20/2014 12:45 PM EDT
In response to moonslav59's comment:
Bringing up Betts now and expecting him to turn this team around is not realistic.
I'm not for bringing him up right now, but mostly for the reason that he is not ready to play any position at the ML: level,except 2B.
JBJ, Bogaerts, and WMB all crushed AA/AAA pitching before they reached the majors and have had growing pains. Why would Betts, who is skipping two levels, NOT ONE, do any better???
Some players are good enough to jump 2 levels. Maybe Betts is not one, but at this point, I can't see him doing worse than a .600 OPS.
Middy did not "crush" AA (.865) or AAA (.788).
JBJ did not crush either AA (.809) or AAA (.849)
Bogaerts crushed AA (.922), but not AAA (.822)
Betts hit .966 last year in A+ and is over 1.000 now in AA. I know he is young. I know his AA sample size is small, but if he had a position to fill, I'd give him a shot sooner rather than later.
You are right though, I do not expect him to lead us to the promise land single-handedly. I do, hoever, think there is a good chance he does better than Middy or whoever plays LF for us going forward.
First lets see if he can play ss, and let him do it in AAA where he will see better pitching. If he is still tearing it up by the end of July there then lets talk about a place for him.
Fair enough, but he needs to play SS, 3B, LF or CF everyday until then.
But that isn't realistic either, because the Red Sox just moved him to CF. That means, they view his future in the outfield. So a realistic view, if there is one where Betts is on this team this year.....is likely in the outfield.
I said before that if the Sox felt he could be a MLB SS, he would not have been moved off that position already.
Perhaps "crushing" is a bit of an overstatement, a subjective term but i will give you that. My point was, they both hit AAA pitching very well. It also depends on how you look at it, WMB at the time he reached the majors he had a 1.057 OPS in Pawtucket that year and a n .865 in Portland the year before, Bogaerts was at .909 in Portland before being brought up to Pawtucket, and while a .822 OPS in Pawtucket might not be "crushing it" it's still very good and very impressive for a 20 year old in AAA in his first 200 at bats.
Point is, players see a drop off when they jump levels, sometimes they don't but when they skip a level they see a drop off more often and more drastically.
I still think it is unrealistic to expect someone in AA to be able to contribute to this team. Could it happen? yes it is plausible, but not anymore plausible that guys who proved themselves a whole level above Betts should start turning it on.
I agree LF is his likely destination, although they will give him some time in Center first. Because if he can handle center he will hold much more value, and if his place is in LF it will be much easier to slide him over there from CF. If SS was in his future, or 3B I think they would have kept him or moved him in the infield. All things considered Betts future is in the outfield (at least in Boston)
From everything I've heard, the only thing keeping Betts away from SS is his arm, which reportedly isn't a bad arm, it just isn't an above average one.