A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I'm not buying the Sizemore renaissance. Those plays the other day were not that great. He went into Jonny Gomes / Victorino mode and made them more spectacular than they needed to be. It's entertainment right...That appears to be how they look at it.

    I hope Sizemore does well though. Let's cross our fingers. Now that would be a comeback of the year candidate! It does appear like a perfect storm though to me. Farrell showing him some loyalty, as he was the farm director when Sizemore was coming up. It could all be wishful thinking but we do have JBJ standing by to step in.

    How many teams appear to have a surplus of good talent at this time of year? We have JBJ, Lavarnway and Carp not to mention a number of relievers and a starter even, who all could be superfluous at the start of the year. Guys who could make any other team.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Guys, I'm with those who say on paper we look much stronger this year than last.  If Britton and Workman start in AAA...those two guys pitched in the WS!  Pedey played with a bad hand much of last year.  And the comraderie has been established and should still be a factor.  I think Naps may be better this year too.  I too wanted one big splashy outfielder, but I'm ok with this approach--at some time the kids have to step up and find their way.  I became a big fan of "depth" last year.  Anytime someone went down, someone else stepped up.  I think we have a pretty impressive coaching staff as well.  And if something goes sour, we have plenty of trade pieces.  Finally, at the end of this year let's look what our CF's have done vs. Ells.  I suspect there won't be that much difference.  Last spring Boom invited some of us to get on the train and enjoy the ride; this spring I don't have to be invited...

     

     

     

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    The only improvements they could have made would have been by making a big expensive free agent signing, or trading a package of prospects for a big name.  That would have been the splashy thing to do.  They went with careful and conservative moves instead.

    Even at that, we're still going to be close to the luxury tax threshold in payroll.

    I think Cherington had another good offseason.  We'll see, of course. 

    [/QUOTE]

    I agree, but trades were aloso an option.

    [/QUOTE]

    Sure.  As I said, we could have traded a bunch of prospects.  Our prospects are the main thing other teams would be interested in.  We had a 'pitching surplus' for a few minutes, till Dempster packed it in.  The only other realistic trade chips we have are guys like Lava and Carp, who they are probably trying to move in the right deal.

    I think Ben C did what he could to keep the team a contender while doing it in a conservative, looking-ahead way.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Personally I have a fundamental disagreement with dgalehouse that you have to improve every offseason.  It's an impossibility, to begin with.  You can't keep getting better.  It's a zero sum game.

    Last year was virtually a perfect season.  We won 97 games, won the division comfortably, won the playoff series 3-1, 4-2 and 4-2.  We didn't lose more than 3 in a row once throughout it all.  That is running the table. 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    The only improvements they could have made would have been by making a big expensive free agent signing, or trading a package of prospects for a big name.  That would have been the splashy thing to do.  They went with careful and conservative moves instead.

    Even at that, we're still going to be close to the luxury tax threshold in payroll.

    I think Cherington had another good offseason.  We'll see, of course. 

    [/QUOTE]

    I agree, but trades were aloso an option.

    [/QUOTE]

    Sure.  As I said, we could have traded a bunch of prospects.  Our prospects are the main thing other teams would be interested in.  We had a 'pitching surplus' for a few minutes, till Dempster packed it in.  The only other realistic trade chips we have are guys like Lava and Carp, who they are probably trying to move in the right deal.

    I think Ben C did what he could to keep the team a contender while doing it in a conservative, looking-ahead way.

    [/QUOTE]

    I'm not saying we should have made a major trade involving prospects, and until I see an actual trade offer, I would never say, "we should have done ____".

    I do think we may still make a minor trade to bolster our 25 man roster or farm by trading Carp and/or Lava and maybe add a blocked prospect or two to sweeten the return, but I'm fine with what Ben did this winter.

    He added Mujica and Badenhop. Capuano is good depth. Switching from Drew to bogey and salty to AJ P should not create a major swing either way. The loss of Ellsbury and replacement with JBJ/Sizemore is the big worry, but I really think we can manage the drop off in CF with better pitching and better offense from SS, 2B, 3B and maybe LF.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    This tidbit from Gordon Edes at ESPNBoston:

    "One scout noted that with the rash of Tommy John injuries that have ravaged teams in the last week or so, a veteran starter such as Capuano would have been in much greater demand than he was when the Sox signed him earlier this spring. The Sox are likely to hear a few offers for Capuano, though he looms as a valuable commodity in their own plans as rotation depth and a bullpen piece."

    http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/35139/takeaways-from-tampa-bee-not-dismayed-by-8-1-loss

     

    I thought, as a newly-signed free agent, Capuano could not be traded until sometime in the summer (at least not without his consent)?

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Personally I have a fundamental disagreement with dgalehouse that you have to improve every offseason.  It's an impossibility, to begin with.  You can't keep getting better.  It's a zero sum game.

    Last year was virtually a perfect season.  We won 97 games, won the division comfortably, won the playoff series 3-1, 4-2 and 4-2.  We didn't lose more than 3 in a row once throughout it all.  That is running the table. 

    [/QUOTE]

    I think the goal is to try and improve yourself on paper every year or at least stay even.

    I think an argument can be made that we did stay even and certainly look better this spring than we did last spring.

    Add Mujica, Badenhop and a full season from Peavy, Miller & Buch.

    Add AJ P, Bogey, JBJ, Herrera, and a full season from Middy & Ross.

    Take away Ellsbury, Drew, Ellsbury, Ciriaco, Iggy and some upcoming injuries.

    On paper, I think we stayed about even.

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I think Ben C did what he could to keep the team a contender while doing it in a conservative, looking-ahead way.

    I love how we stayed serious contenders without touching the farm and about to add to the farm with multiple early picks in this year's deep and strong draft.

    Kudos to Ben & Co.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Looking forward to November... (source: soxprospects.com)

    The following players will be eligible for the December 2014 Rule 5 Draft if they are not added to the 40-man roster by November 20, 2014:

    Jonathan Aro, Chris Balcom-Miller, Matt Barnes, Michael Brenly, Corey Brown, Miguel Celestino, David Chester, Scott Cousins, Sean Coyle, William Cuevas, Jacob Dahlstrand, Keury De La Cruz, Dayan Diaz, Luis Diaz, John Ely, Jason Garcia, Matt Gedman, Sergio Gomez, Bo Greenwell, Dreily Guerrero, Williams Jerez, Ellis Jimenez, Bryan Johns, Matty Johnson, Zach Kapstein, Jesus Loya, Mike McCarthy, Jose Mijares, Matty Ott, Mickey Pena, Aneudis Peralta, Oscar Perez, Kendrick Perkins, Carlos Pinales, Noe Ramirez, Henry Ramos, Carlos Rivero, Tim Roberson, Robby Scott, Travis Shaw, David Sopilka, Matt Spring, Blake SwihartFrancisco Taveras, Drew Turocy, Jose Valdez, Brayan Villarreal, Shannon Wilkerson, Madison Younginer

    Players eligible for minor league free agency in November 2014 are not listed here.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Diamondbacks Shopping Didi Gregorius For Pitching By  Steve Adams [March 19 at 8:27am CST]

    Following the loss of Patrick Corbin to a torn ulnar collateral ligament, the Diamondbacks are looking to acquire an MLB-ready starting pitcher as they dangle shortstop Didi Gregorius in trade talks, according to ESPNNewYork.com's Adam Rubin. That Gregorius is on the trading block isn't entirely surprising, as recent reports have indicated that Arizona will name Chris Owings its everyday shortstop. Previously, Arizona had been seeking a catcher in exchange for Owings or Gregorius, but Corbin's injury seems to have changed that line of thinking.

    The 24-year-old Gregorius posted fairly decent overall numbers in his first significant taste of big league action in 2013, batting .252/.332/.373 with seven homers and roughly average defense at shortstop (per Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved). Gregorius projects to be a better defender than that going forward, but his bat is suspect, as evidenced by the rapid decline in his production last season after a hot start. Gregorius homered in two of his first three games with the Diamondbacks and batted .322/.386/.497 through his first 38 contests, but he mustered just a .202/.294/.284 line in his final 65 games.

    Rubin writes that three D'Backs scouts were on-hand to watch an intrasquad game between the Mets' Double-A and Triple-A club yesterday. Noah SyndergaardLogan Verrett andJacob deGrom all pitched in that game, though as Rubin notes, Syndergaard is essentially untouchable in trade talks. Arizona currently projects for a rotation of Trevor CahillWade MileyBrandon McCarthyBronson Arroyo and one of Randall Delgado or Archie

     

     

    Would anyone here trade one of Webster, Workman, Britton, de la Rosa, Ranaudo, or Barnes straight up for Gregorius?

    I doubt they'd take Capuano.

    With Dempster gone, we can't afford to offer Peavy, and I wouldn't do that anyways.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I think the goal is to try and improve yourself on paper every year or at least stay even.



    This is where I have a fundamental disagreement.  I believe there are some years you simply can't improve, without doing something drastic that's going to hurt you in the future.  I think this was an offseason where the goal was to not regress by very much.

    Losing Ellsbury is an example of how the economics of the game can prevent you from even staying even sometimes.

    Successful teams have to keep paying more just to retain their good players.  Napoli's price went up by 3 million.  Lester's price went up.  Salty's price went up so we had to sign Pierzynski, so our cost at catcher went up.  Etc.

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I think the goal is to try and improve yourself on paper every year or at least stay even.

     



    This is where I have a fundamental disagreement.  I believe there are some years you simply can't improve, without doing something drastic that's going to hurt you in the future.  I think this was an offseason where the goal was to not regress by very much.

    Obviously every team cannot improve on paper every year, but I do think contending teams do the best they can not to regress. 

    I don't disagree with you, though, and if Ben was honest, he might say we regressed a little this year.

     

     

    Losing Ellsbury is an example of how the economics of the game can prevent you from even staying even sometimes.

    Yes, but adding Mujica, Badenhop, Sizemore & Herrera should help lessen that regression, and having Peavy, Buchholz, Miller, and Middy all year may even us out- on paper.

     

    Successful teams have to keep paying more just to retain their good players.  Napoli's price went up by 3 million.  Lester's price went up.  Salty's price went up so we had to sign Pierzynski, so our cost at catcher went up.  Etc.

    Our SS and CF price went way down.

    Our SP cost went down when Dempster left, and this offsets the raises to others and the full year of Peavy.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'm not buying the Sizemore renaissance. Those plays the other day were not that great. He went into Jonny Gomes / Victorino mode and made them more spectacular than they needed to be. It's entertainment right...That appears to be how they look at it.

    I hope Sizemore does well though. Let's cross our fingers. Now that would be a comeback of the year candidate! It does appear like a perfect storm though to me. Farrell showing him some loyalty, as he was the farm director when Sizemore was coming up. It could all be wishful thinking but we do have JBJ standing by to step in.

    How many teams appear to have a surplus of good talent at this time of year? We have JBJ, Lavarnway and Carp not to mention a number of relievers and a starter even, who all could be superfluous at the start of the year. Guys who could make any other team.

    [/QUOTE]

    Boom, I don't know what, if anything, you were watching. He crashed into the wall on one catch on a ball that a 25 mile-per-hour gale blew deeper and deeper. On the other catch, he dove towards the left-center gap to catch a sinking liner that was ticketed for sure double. I think Farrell is giving him lots of reps to simply see how strong and durable he is. I've said that he has been the best Red Sox player in camp, no question. But he also has the most to prove. And even if he continues to be the best player throughout ST he may still start the season in AAA to prove even further that he is all the way back and can play more than 100 games. The reality is that 100 games would be a very optimistic goal.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    As we pass the halfway point in Spring Training, I want to discuss one of the most important changes from last year to this year. I was a champion of Salty's throughout last year and thought he was the most important free agent to bring back. But then the playoffs arrived and he took a back seat, deservedly so, to Ross and we won it all. Obviously the pitchers were more comfortable in the most important games of their careers with Ross over Salty. But add to that the fact that both Vasquez and Swihart blossomed in the minor leagues, easily surpassing Lavarnway on the depth chart, and making a shorter term, stop-gap catcher more enticing. And AJ was ripe for the picking, priced right and for only one year.

    Now I have watched him closely this spring and have not liked what he's done defensively yet. But I have seen quite a bit of him throughout his long career and I think most of his early troubles will be eliminated with more familiarity with the staff. And it's not like Salty was a Molina or Bench behind the dish. But what I have been impressed with is AJ's bat. He seems to have developed, since I don't recall him being anything but a pull hitter, a sweet inside-out swing targeting the left-field wall. Now he's still not very patient, and he may lead the league in groundouts to second base, but he will be at least as productive as Salty and I'm willing to go out on a limb and say he'll be considerably more productive offensively without any loss of defense. I think he'll probably play about 110-115 games, very low for him, which should keep him fresh and productive.  

    And I wrote quite a bit last spring gushing about Vasquez, and he has done nothing this spring to dampen my enthusiasm. If anything happens to either of our veteran catchers we are in very good hands in Vasquez. And Butler is very solid as well.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]Diamondbacks Shopping Didi Gregorius For Pitching By  Steve Adams [March 19 at 8:27am CST]

    Following the loss of Patrick Corbin to a torn ulnar collateral ligament, the Diamondbacks are looking to acquire an MLB-ready starting pitcher as they dangle shortstop Didi Gregorius in trade talks, according to ESPNNewYork.com's Adam Rubin. That Gregorius is on the trading block isn't entirely surprising, as recent reports have indicated that Arizona will name Chris Owings its everyday shortstop. Previously, Arizona had been seeking a catcher in exchange for Owings or Gregorius, but Corbin's injury seems to have changed that line of thinking.

    The 24-year-old Gregorius posted fairly decent overall numbers in his first significant taste of big league action in 2013, batting .252/.332/.373 with seven homers and roughly average defense at shortstop (per Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved). Gregorius projects to be a better defender than that going forward, but his bat is suspect, as evidenced by the rapid decline in his production last season after a hot start. Gregorius homered in two of his first three games with the Diamondbacks and batted .322/.386/.497 through his first 38 contests, but he mustered just a .202/.294/.284 line in his final 65 games.

    Rubin writes that three D'Backs scouts were on-hand to watch an intrasquad game between the Mets' Double-A and Triple-A club yesterday. Noah SyndergaardLogan Verrett andJacob deGrom all pitched in that game, though as Rubin notes, Syndergaard is essentially untouchable in trade talks. Arizona currently projects for a rotation of Trevor CahillWade MileyBrandon McCarthyBronson Arroyo and one of Randall Delgado or Archie

     

     

    Would anyone here trade one of Webster, Workman, Britton, de la Rosa, Ranaudo, or Barnes straight up for Gregorius?

    I doubt they'd take Capuano.

    With Dempster gone, we can't afford to offer Peavy, and I wouldn't do that anyways.

    [/QUOTE]

    No. He probably can't hit. 

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'm not buying the Sizemore renaissance. Those plays the other day were not that great. He went into Jonny Gomes / Victorino mode and made them more spectacular than they needed to be. It's entertainment right...That appears to be how they look at it.

    I hope Sizemore does well though. Let's cross our fingers. Now that would be a comeback of the year candidate! It does appear like a perfect storm though to me. Farrell showing him some loyalty, as he was the farm director when Sizemore was coming up. It could all be wishful thinking but we do have JBJ standing by to step in.

    How many teams appear to have a surplus of good talent at this time of year? We have JBJ, Lavarnway and Carp not to mention a number of relievers and a starter even, who all could be superfluous at the start of the year. Guys who could make any other team.

    [/QUOTE]

    Boom, I don't know what, if anything, you were watching. He crashed into the wall on one catch on a ball that a 25 mile-per-hour gale blew deeper and deeper. On the other catch, he dove towards the left-center gap to catch a sinking liner that was ticketed for sure double. I think Farrell is giving him lots of reps to simply see how strong and durable he is. I've said that he has been the best Red Sox player in camp, no question. But he also has the most to prove. And even if he continues to be the best player throughout ST he may still start the season in AAA to prove even further that he is all the way back and can play more than 100 games. The reality is that 100 games would be a very optimistic goal.

    [/QUOTE]

    To me he knew he had both catches and was just timing his runs. It's good he is a little cautious. Maybe that is what he was really doing. He didn't run all out to get to either ball in my opinion.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Cherington seems to do it each year with smoke and mirrors. The ultimate value shopper. Look at what they lost this year yet they are absolutely still on target to repeat.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Personally I have a fundamental disagreement with dgalehouse that you have to improve every offseason.  It's an impossibility, to begin with.  You can't keep getting better.  It's a zero sum game.

    Last year was virtually a perfect season.  We won 97 games, won the division comfortably, won the playoff series 3-1, 4-2 and 4-2.  We didn't lose more than 3 in a row once throughout it all.  That is running the table. 

    [/QUOTE]

    I think the goal is to try and improve yourself on paper every year or at least stay even.

    I think an argument can be made that we did stay even and certainly look better this spring than we did last spring.

    Add Mujica, Badenhop and a full season from Peavy, Miller & Buch.

    Add AJ P, Bogey, JBJ, Herrera, and a full season from Middy & Ross.

    Take away Ellsbury, Drew, Ellsbury, Ciriaco, Iggy and some upcoming injuries.

    On paper, I think we stayed about even.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    The real question is can everything go right 2 yrs in a row? 2013 was a magical ride. Is there a chance that RS could be better than last yr of course but much would have to happen.

    1. All the guys who had bounce back yrs and came back from inuries would have to continue to play the way they did last yr.

    2. The young guns all come in and play well. WMB becomes that power hitting corner infielder that this lineup needs. Bogey plays above avg defense, and starts to show everyone why so many have predicted greatness. JBJ or Sizemore become an adequate replacement for Ells.

    3. The few guys who were not healthy or at there best last yr get better. Can Buch make 30 starts which if he does probably in the CY talk. Lester continues to pitch like he did in playoffs. Koji continues to close door at end of games. Bullpen becomes as good as it looks on paper.

    Most of these things could happen, but so could losing 3/5 of the rotation like we did a couple of yrs ago happen again and young guys don't pitch well in their place. I'm optimistic but repeating is REALLY DIFFICULT!

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to jcri's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Guys, I'm with those who say on paper we look much stronger this year than last.  If Britton and Workman start in AAA...those two guys pitched in the WS!  Pedey played with a bad hand much of last year.  And the comraderie has been established and should still be a factor.  I think Naps may be better this year too.  I too wanted one big splashy outfielder, but I'm ok with this approach--at some time the kids have to step up and find their way.  I became a big fan of "depth" last year.  Anytime someone went down, someone else stepped up.  I think we have a pretty impressive coaching staff as well.  And if something goes sour, we have plenty of trade pieces.  Finally, at the end of this year let's look what our CF's have done vs. Ells.  I suspect there won't be that much difference.  Last spring Boom invited some of us to get on the train and enjoy the ride; this spring I don't have to be invited...

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I suspect you may be right. Both Sizemore and Ellsbury are injury risks or have a injury history. More power, less steals, better OPS, less $, I'm taking the flier on Sizemore. He was Ellsbury before Ellsbury was Ellsbury... What? Umm, Yeah. :) Ha! 

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Personally I have a fundamental disagreement with dgalehouse that you have to improve every offseason.  It's an impossibility, to begin with.  You can't keep getting better.  It's a zero sum game.

    Last year was virtually a perfect season.  We won 97 games, won the division comfortably, won the playoff series 3-1, 4-2 and 4-2.  We didn't lose more than 3 in a row once throughout it all.  That is running the table. 

    [/QUOTE]

    I think the goal is to try and improve yourself on paper every year or at least stay even.

    I think an argument can be made that we did stay even and certainly look better this spring than we did last spring.

    Add Mujica, Badenhop and a full season from Peavy, Miller & Buch.

    Add AJ P, Bogey, JBJ, Herrera, and a full season from Middy & Ross.

    Take away Ellsbury, Drew, Ellsbury, Ciriaco, Iggy and some upcoming injuries.

    On paper, I think we stayed about even.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    The real question is can everything go right 2 yrs in a row? 2013 was a magical ride. Is there a chance that RS could be better than last yr of course but much would have to happen.

    1. All the guys who had bounce back yrs and came back from inuries would have to continue to play the way they did last yr.

    2. The young guns all come in and play well. WMB becomes that power hitting corner infielder that this lineup needs. Bogey plays above avg defense, and starts to show everyone why so many have predicted greatness. JBJ or Sizemore become an adequate replacement for Ells.

    3. The few guys who were not healthy or at there best last yr get better. Can Buch make 30 starts which if he does probably in the CY talk. Lester continues to pitch like he did in playoffs. Koji continues to close door at end of games. Bullpen becomes as good as it looks on paper.

    Most of these things could happen, but so could losing 3/5 of the rotation like we did a couple of yrs ago happen again and young guys don't pitch well in their place. I'm optimistic but repeating is REALLY DIFFICULT!

     

    [/QUOTE]

    It will not be any easier. However...

    We did win last year with lots of missed time by Buch, Miller and Middy.

    We won with our third string closer.

    We won with a .787 OPS from Pedey.

    We won without Gomes hitting lefties like we hoped.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Personally I have a fundamental disagreement with dgalehouse that you have to improve every offseason.  It's an impossibility, to begin with.  You can't keep getting better.  It's a zero sum game.

    Last year was virtually a perfect season.  We won 97 games, won the division comfortably, won the playoff series 3-1, 4-2 and 4-2.  We didn't lose more than 3 in a row once throughout it all.  That is running the table. 



    I think the goal is to try and improve yourself on paper every year or at least stay even.

    I think an argument can be made that we did stay even and certainly look better this spring than we did last spring.

    Add Mujica, Badenhop and a full season from Peavy, Miller & Buch.

    Add AJ P, Bogey, JBJ, Herrera, and a full season from Middy & Ross.

    Take away Ellsbury, Drew, Ellsbury, Ciriaco, Iggy and some upcoming injuries.

    On paper, I think we stayed about even.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    The real question is can everything go right 2 yrs in a row? 2013 was a magical ride. Is there a chance that RS could be better than last yr of course but much would have to happen.

    1. All the guys who had bounce back yrs and came back from inuries would have to continue to play the way they did last yr.

    2. The young guns all come in and play well. WMB becomes that power hitting corner infielder that this lineup needs. Bogey plays above avg defense, and starts to show everyone why so many have predicted greatness. JBJ or Sizemore become an adequate replacement for Ells.

    3. The few guys who were not healthy or at there best last yr get better. Can Buch make 30 starts which if he does probably in the CY talk. Lester continues to pitch like he did in playoffs. Koji continues to close door at end of games. Bullpen becomes as good as it looks on paper.

    Most of these things could happen, but so could losing 3/5 of the rotation like we did a couple of yrs ago happen again and young guys don't pitch well in their place. I'm optimistic but repeating is REALLY DIFFICULT!

     

    [/QUOTE]

    It will not be any easier. However...

    We did win last year with lots of missed time by Buch, Miller and Middy.

    We won with our third string closer.

    We won with a .787 OPS from Pedey.

    We won without Gomes hitting lefties like we hoped.

    [/QUOTE]


    But remember last year we probably snuck up on a lot of teams. This year everyone will be looking to knock off the Champs. The team can be better, there are areas we probably will be improved, bullpen / 3B / even SS could be better. more than likely we take a step back in CF / DH [not sure Papi can continue the run he had last yr- possible but I wouldn't put my $ on it]. The fact that we have a lot of young kids ready to make the jump also makes us a better team. But 162 is a grind and when every team is trying to measure its self vs. RS, hopefully this team is up to the task mentally, more so than the talent. It will be much more difficult this year!

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    But remember last year we probably snuck up on a lot of teams. This year everyone will be looking to knock off the Champs. The team can be better, there are areas we probably will be improved, bullpen / 3B / even SS could be better. more than likely we take a step back in CF / DH [not sure Papi can continue the run he had last yr- possible but I wouldn't put my $ on it]. The fact that we have a lot of young kids ready to make the jump also makes us a better team. But 162 is a grind and when every team is trying to measure its self vs. RS, hopefully this team is up to the task mentally, more so than the talent. It will be much more difficult this year!

    I'm not sure we won a single game, because a team took us lightly, or we "snuck up" on them, but you are right, it is not going to be easier this year, in fact, the AL east got tougher.

    There are a lot of areas where the Sox can step up their game to offset the loss of Ellsbury, Drew, Salty and others. It will take a few of them to happen to give us a solid chance at another ring, but to me, there are so many of them that expecting 2 or 3 to happen is not a big "if". Of course, a major injury here and there could set us way back, but I feel more secure about our health this year than in recent years.

    To me, if we have normal injury losses, we should only need 2-3 of these to happen to be close to favorites to win it all (which guarantees nothing, I might add):

    1) Buccholz is healthy all year.

    2) Napoli hits like 2011 or 2008.

    3) Pedey hits like 2010 or 2011.

    4) Bogey wins ROY.

    5) Middy plays like early 2012.

    6) Doubront steps it up a notch or two.

    7) Peavy pitches like he has in the recent past (2011).

    8) Mujica, Badenhop, a healthy Miller and our young pitchers help make our bullpen fantastic.

    9) Gomes hits lefties like he did from 2009-2012.

    10) Victorino plays more and plays closer to 100% when he does.

    11) Sizemore and JBJ surprise us by having a combined OPS higher than Ellsbury's .771 in 2013.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to jcri's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Guys, I'm with those who say on paper we look much stronger this year than last.  If Britton and Workman start in AAA...those two guys pitched in the WS!  Pedey played with a bad hand much of last year.  And the comraderie has been established and should still be a factor.  I think Naps may be better this year too.  I too wanted one big splashy outfielder, but I'm ok with this approach--at some time the kids have to step up and find their way.  I became a big fan of "depth" last year.  Anytime someone went down, someone else stepped up.  I think we have a pretty impressive coaching staff as well.  And if something goes sour, we have plenty of trade pieces.  Finally, at the end of this year let's look what our CF's have done vs. Ells.  I suspect there won't be that much difference.  Last spring Boom invited some of us to get on the train and enjoy the ride; this spring I don't have to be invited...

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I really like what I see from Sizemore. regardless of boom down playing those great plays by sizmore (full extension on one play), if healthy, hes the better option over JBJ in CF. We added some OF depth in AAA with Corey Brown and Scott Cousins. Both good options if needed.

    I also believe, for no good reason other than a feeling, that Middy will step up this year. I can see a 270 BA 310 OBP 475 SLG from him this year with 25 bombs. I think we will see Vasquez play some games behind the plate in Boston. (2 37 yo catchers doesnt make me comfy).

    Ive always loved depth and not so much the flashy signings. They arent needed if you draft good, sign quality players to fill the holes, signing our own homegrown guys, and if a good deal comes around for a young proven player we have the resources to get him.

    Ben has got this team back on track and is making believers out of the most sceptical fans. Its no surprise. He has more experience than Theo had. Makes me wonder how much input he had when Theo was here. I believe it was Ben who made the Beckett deal after Theo took off in the infamous gorilla suit.

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to jcri's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Guys, I'm with those who say on paper we look much stronger this year than last.  If Britton and Workman start in AAA...those two guys pitched in the WS!  Pedey played with a bad hand much of last year.  And the comraderie has been established and should still be a factor.  I think Naps may be better this year too.  I too wanted one big splashy outfielder, but I'm ok with this approach--at some time the kids have to step up and find their way.  I became a big fan of "depth" last year.  Anytime someone went down, someone else stepped up.  I think we have a pretty impressive coaching staff as well.  And if something goes sour, we have plenty of trade pieces.  Finally, at the end of this year let's look what our CF's have done vs. Ells.  I suspect there won't be that much difference.  Last spring Boom invited some of us to get on the train and enjoy the ride; this spring I don't have to be invited...

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I really like what I see from Sizemore. regardless of boom down playing those great plays by sizmore (full extension on one play), if healthy, hes the better option over JBJ in CF. We added some OF depth in AAA with Corey Brown and Scott Cousins. Both good options if needed.

    I also believe, for no good reason other than a feeling, that Middy will step up this year. I can see a 270 BA 310 OBP 475 SLG from him this year with 25 bombs. I think we will see Vasquez play some games behind the plate in Boston. (2 37 yo catchers doesnt make me comfy).

    Ive always loved depth and not so much the flashy signings. They arent needed if you draft good, sign quality players to fill the holes, signing our own homegrown guys, and if a good deal comes around for a young proven player we have the resources to get him.

    Ben has got this team back on track and is making believers out of the most sceptical fans. Its no surprise. He has more experience than Theo had. Makes me wonder how much input he had when Theo was here. I believe it was Ben who made the Beckett deal after Theo took off in the infamous gorilla suit.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Ben did what most thought was impossible not only with the big trade but also turning this team into a winner the very next season.  I have complete confidence in him as our GM.  Theo started with a very good club that only needed tweaking, then eventually showed his weakneses.  Ben started with a disaster and as you said definately has the Red Sox once again recognozed as one of "if not the best" run organizations in baseball.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Ben did what most thought was impossible not only with the big trade but also turning this team into a winner the very next season.  I have complete confidence in him as our GM.  Theo started with a very good club that only needed tweaking, then eventually showed his weakneses.  Ben started with a disaster and as you said definately has the Red Sox once again recognozed as one of "if not the best" run organizations in baseball.

    I agree, but the "disaster" was not really as bad as it looked. Although we finished in last place, there was a lot of talent already on the team that ben acquired.

    I'm not taking anything away from ben by saying that. I love the great job he has done making us a top contender without sacrificing our future.

     

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