A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    As it stands right now, Xander projects as an above 5.0 WAR player right now. He is 33% better than the average player in generating runs. And he is a SS who has yet to really come into his power. Just imagine when he starts hitting 25-30 HR a year as well, which would be a logical projection for a guy with his minor league ISO numbers. Maybe even some 35 HR years. He's a potential 8-9 WAR player as a SS. That doesn't happen often at all.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    David Ortiz hasn't been more than a 3.9 WAR player since 2007. Xander has been that good. He is already more valuable to the team overall than Ortiz, given standard metrics.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from patrickford. Show patrickford's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Count me as totally on board with Bogaerts sticking at SS. He has by no means been a disaster in the field. Despite his struggles he's been slightly better than I expected, and has shown improvement. If he was just going to go to pieces out there and start sailing balls into the dugout on a regular basis, he would have cracked already. 

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Ha!  Anotherwin!  I like the dust up and ejections--this is the type of game that brings teams closer sometimes, us against them, bloods up, come wrack, come wind, let slip the dogs of war...Critter



    I was thinking the exact same thing.

    I hope the juices flowing will ignite a scorching summer of great baseball!

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    David Ortiz hasn't been more than a 3.9 WAR player since 2007. Xander has been that good. He is already more valuable to the team overall than Ortiz, given standard metrics.



    DH's don't get the love they deserve with WAR.

    I go to the value page on fangraphs and look at the top batting players since 2012.  Here they are(175 qualifies players):

    134.4 Miggy  

    126.9 Trout

    1001.9 McCutchen

    98.3   Votto

    86.7   Encarnacion

    76.5   Cano

    76.0   Choo

    74.3   Stanton

    73.8   Ortiz

    72.1   Goldschmidt

    71.5   Holliday

    Other notables:

    16 Beltre, 20 B Moss, 23 Werth, 27 Upton, 38 AGon, 47 N Cruz, 48 B Butler,

    53 Napoli, 55 LaRoche, 66 Pagan, 67 Pedroia, 69 K Morales, 72 Lowrie, ** Rizzo, 101 Salty, 115 AJ P, 118 Vic, 121 Ellsbury, 135 Reddick

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to patrickford's comment:

    Count me as totally on board with Bogaerts sticking at SS. He has by no means been a disaster in the field. Despite his struggles he's been slightly better than I expected, and has shown improvement. If he was just going to go to pieces out there and start sailing balls into the dugout on a regular basis, he would have cracked already.



    I expect better than just not sailing balls into the dugout, but I will admit, he has looked better than I expected. However, I expected bottom 10 out of the 30 starting MLB SS's on defense, and top 5 to 10 on offense.

    I'd still prefer him as top 5 offensive 3Bman and a top 10 defensive 3Bman as well (over a year or two).

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from J-BAY. Show J-BAY's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

     



    Pete AbrahamVerified account
    ‏@PeteAbe
    #redsox have started working Brock Holt out at first base and the OF.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Looking like the Red Sox are heeding the calls of Moon and others about increasing the fielding versatility of some players, esp. those blocked because of position.  Holt now, Lava playing first, Betts playing center.  Smart, and why not?  Probably the wave of the future, sure helps one's chances of making the show.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    It's kind of a shame to me if we bring in Drew and we sit Holt when he is playing well. At least they are thinking of using him in other slots. I think that is great news.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

    Looking like the Red Sox are heeding the calls of Moon and others about increasing the fielding versatility of some players, esp. those blocked because of position.  Holt now, Lava playing first, Betts playing center.  Smart, and why not?  Probably the wave of the future, sure helps one's chances of making the show. 



    I also called for de la Rosa to start ahead of any prospect, including Workman. I looked right tonight!

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

    Looking like the Red Sox are heeding the calls of Moon and others about increasing the fielding versatility of some players, esp. those blocked because of position.  Holt now, Lava playing first, Betts playing center.  Smart, and why not?  Probably the wave of the future, sure helps one's chances of making the show. 



    I also called for de la Rosa to start ahead of any prospect, including Workman. I looked right tonight!




    Me too Moon.  The kid showed us tonight whey he was originally regarded higher than Webster in the 2012 trade.

    It's funny because RDLR might be the kind of prospect that we would all be sick of by now in LA.  Flashed big time potential, then disappeared due to injury only to come back and show mixed results for a year.

    But last year he wasn't fully removed from injury after barely throwing 10 innings in 2012.  This year he seems to be what people once hoped he was.

    He kind of reminds me of the path Michael Pineda took, of course hopefully without the pine tar and the reoccurrence of injury.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

    Looking like the Red Sox are heeding the calls of Moon and others about increasing the fielding versatility of some players, esp. those blocked because of position.  Holt now, Lava playing first, Betts playing center.  Smart, and why not?  Probably the wave of the future, sure helps one's chances of making the show. 



    I also called for de la Rosa to start ahead of any prospect, including Workman. I looked right tonight!




    Me too Moon.  The kid showed us tonight whey he was originally regarded higher than Webster in the 2012 trade.

    It's funny because RDLR might be the kind of prospect that we would all be sick of by now in LA.  Flashed big time potential, then disappeared due to injury only to come back and show mixed results for a year.

    But last year he wasn't fully removed from injury after barely throwing 10 innings in 2012.  This year he seems to be what people once hoped he was.

    He kind of reminds me of the path Michael Pineda took, of course hopefully without the pine tar and the reoccurrence of injury.



    I always thought Rubby had the best stuff not Webster.  Renaudo also deserves a chance as does Barnes just to see how they perform.  You can learn a lot about a youngster when they finally get the opportunity to play or pitch at the big league level where it really counts most. 

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

    Looking like the Red Sox are heeding the calls of Moon and others about increasing the fielding versatility of some players, esp. those blocked because of position.  Holt now, Lava playing first, Betts playing center.  Smart, and why not?  Probably the wave of the future, sure helps one's chances of making the show. 



    I also called for de la Rosa to start ahead of any prospect, including Workman. I looked right tonight!




    Me too Moon.  The kid showed us tonight whey he was originally regarded higher than Webster in the 2012 trade.

    It's funny because RDLR might be the kind of prospect that we would all be sick of by now in LA.  Flashed big time potential, then disappeared due to injury only to come back and show mixed results for a year.

    But last year he wasn't fully removed from injury after barely throwing 10 innings in 2012.  This year he seems to be what people once hoped he was.

    He kind of reminds me of the path Michael Pineda took, of course hopefully without the pine tar and the reoccurrence of injury.




    [object HTMLDivElement]

    you forgot the reoccurrence of pine tar. ;)

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Man I hate it when I have to work and can't see a game like the one today because it's on national TV. It's almost worth it to get cable in the office. MLB.com is worthless during blackout games.

    Here is to hoping Rubby emerges today. Just keep them under 3 runs and 5 innings and I'll be happy even though there is little indication they will be able to hit Oridozzi well.

    Bogaerts is becoming the stud we all hoped he would be. That fielding play he made late in the game was solid and his bat has been excellent recently.

    Lots of data indicating he's for real. He's 6 for 10 on fastballs above 95 MPH. The guy has tremendous bat speed. And a whole lot of pop which he just now is coming into. I like his more aggressive recent approach but he needs to watch it because pitchers will adjust to him and give him nothing to hit. Slotting him at least 2nd in the lineup was long overdue. I think we should just go ahead and put him in the 3 slot. His aggressive approach will play better with Papi hitting after him.

    I have no problem with Bogaerts as our SS for the next 10 years. I think he would have been fine. The data still indicates he would be about average defensively and great offensively for a SS. He's not Tulo but he is maybe the next best hitting SS going forward.

    I know the Sox did what they had to do at the time, but lumping all the rookies ( Inc. Middy as he's still a newbie at least ) together at the bottom of the order and have them battle it out wasn't working short term and I doubt long term. I guess it's one of the problems with bringing up so much youth at the same time & still expecting to win too. You want to string together hits in hope to score more runs so they did the most logical thing but.... 

    [object HTMLDivElement]

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

    Looking like the Red Sox are heeding the calls of Moon and others about increasing the fielding versatility of some players, esp. those blocked because of position.  Holt now, Lava playing first, Betts playing center.  Smart, and why not?  Probably the wave of the future, sure helps one's chances of making the show. 



    I also called for de la Rosa to start ahead of any prospect, including Workman. I looked right tonight!




    [object HTMLDivElement]

    I caught the game from the 4th Inn on. Rubby looked brilliant throwing strikes, economical, great FB, no Walks, with a, in Maddon's words "Bugs Bunny Change-up ". The team needed an instant big return on him and they got it. Should we be thanking Pedro right about now? Maybe?

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I always thought Rubby had the best stuff not Webster. Renaudo also deserves a chance as does Barnes just to see how they perform. You can learn a lot about a youngster when they finally get the opportunity to play or pitch at the big league level where it really counts most.

    Well, Peavy's slot will be open next year. I hope Lester's isn't.

    Sox4ever

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from patrickford. Show patrickford's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Where are all the threads about how Bogaerts must be traded while he still has some value left, and Holt having five errors? 
    Winning cures a lot of ills. 

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    2.5 from the wild card.

    Sox4ever

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Next year's rotation is wildly in question.

    Other than Lackey playing for the league minimum, which some question him doing, the rest of the rotation is basically unknown.

    Lester could walk as a free agent. W'd gain a draft pick, but we'd lose an almost irreplaceable part of our team. I hope we keep him. I'd offer somewhere around $100M/5 with a club option 6th year at $15M with a $5M buyout, so basically $105M/5 or $115M/6.

    Buchholz still can pitch, but who knows what's up with him, and if he'll ever be healthy for a whole year.

    Doubront has some nasty stuff, but I'm about at the end of my rope with him. I've suggested trading him since the first time he came to camp out of shape, but he kept on giving me bits of hope here and there. Certainly we can all agree we can't count on him for 2015, but there's a chance he can prove me wrong. 

    We'd probably be lucky if one of Buch or Doubie can give us a full and decent season next year, so we really need a minimum of  3-4 quality starters, if Lester walks or 2-3 if he stays. My guess is we sign at least one decent to excellent SP'er next winter, so that might leave 2-3 slots open for these guys to win:

    De la Rosa

    Workman

    Ranaudo

    Barnes

    Webster

    Britton

    Owens

    I think there's a great chance 2 of these guys can become "the real deal", but it may take some trial and error and some developmental patience to make it happen, and when your on a team like the Sox that might be hard to accomplish. If we are to remain a top contending team, I find it hard to imagine us handing 2 rotation slots to unproven prospects and youngsters a year after handing 3 positional full-time slots to 3 youngsters.

    It would be nice if de la Rosa could win a slot this year by continuing pitching well. That would allow the 7 from the list above to compete for 1 slot not 2.

    Anyways, this thread is supposed to be about this year. I hope de la Rosa can make us forget about Doubront or Buch's health and well being.

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from patrickford. Show patrickford's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Nothing wrong with Buchholtz a little beer and fried chicken wouldn't cure. 

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Travis Shaw has jumped from #42 to #20 on soxprospects.com.

    He's hitting .398 in the minors this year with a .940 OPS (11 Hrs and 39 RBI in 203 ABs).

    His .736 OPS last year was troubling, but he did have a .915 OPS in 2012.

    He was my "sleeper prospect" from a couple years ago.

    Sox4ever

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Gotta like Bogey's .391 OBP and an OPS rising over .830!

    Sox4ever

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Mookie Betts was promoted to Pawtucket.  As I said earlier on this thread, he was in no way going to be rushed from Portland to Boston....however if he continues to tear it up in AAA he could get there later in the year. 

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Mookie Betts was promoted to Pawtucket.  As I said earlier on this thread, he was in no way going to be rushed from Portland to Boston....however if he continues to tear it up in AAA he could get there later in the year. 

    Well, if he just spends a short time in AAA, one could still call it a "rush".

    With an OF hitting dead last in MLB (.614 OPS), I could see it happening. With Vic in doubt this year, the chances rise. I also still think we should have given Cecchini some reps in LF at the AAA level.

    Imagine this line-up...

    1) Betts  CF

    2) Bogey 3B/SS

    3) Pedey 2B

    4) Ortiz DH

    5) Napoli DH

    6) Cecchini LH

    7) Drew SS/Holt 3B

    8) AJ P  C

    9) JBJ RF

     

    If Vic comes back...

    1) Betts CF

    2) Bogey 3B/SS

    3) Pedey 2B

    4) Ortiz DH

    5) Napoli 1B

    6) Vic  RF

    7) Cecchini LF

    8) Drew SS/ Holt 3B

    9) AJ P

     

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    Mookie Betts was promoted to Pawtucket.  As I said earlier on this thread, he was in no way going to be rushed from Portland to Boston....however if he continues to tear it up in AAA he could get there later in the year. 

    Well, if he just spends a short time in AAA, one could still call it a "rush".

    With an OF hitting dead last in MLB (.614 OPS), I could see it happening. With Vic in doubt this year, the chances rise. I also still think we should have given Cecchini some reps in LF at the AAA level.

    Imagine this line-up...

    1) Betts  CF

    2) Bogey 3B/SS

    3) Pedey 2B

    4) Ortiz DH

    5) Napoli DH

    6) Cecchini LH

    7) Drew SS/Holt 3B

    8) AJ P  C

    9) JBJ RF

     

    If Vic comes back...

    1) Betts CF

    2) Bogey 3B/SS

    3) Pedey 2B

    4) Ortiz DH

    5) Napoli 1B

    6) Vic  RF

    7) Cecchini LF

    8) Drew SS/ Holt 3B

    9) AJ P

     

     



    I agree, I think they still could rush him.  But I never thought skipping a level was in the cards.  

     
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