A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

     

    I agree, I think they still could rush him. But I never thought skipping a level was in the cards. 

     

    Understood. I think we see him in September for sure- barring injury or struggles in AAA.

    We may see him earlier, if our OF continues at a .614 OPS (4th worst OF OPS since 1920).

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from J-BAY. Show J-BAY's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

     

     



    Kevin Thomas
    ‏@ClearTheBases
    Henry Owens (i.e. @______H______O ) needs 9 pitches (7 strikes) for 1-2-3 third. That makes 17 straight scoreless innings for the lefty

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from J-BAY. Show J-BAY's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

     



    Mike Antonellis
    ‏@seadogsradio
    Owens with a career-high 8 IP…scoreless streak is 22 consecutive innings, 4th best streak in franchise history.

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I still think our farm is strong, even with these players going to the bigs: Bogey, JBJ, de la Rosa, Workman, Holt, and now Hassan.

    Sox4ever

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from J-BAY. Show J-BAY's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Follow

    Kevin Thomas
    ‏@ClearTheBases
    Doubront quick and easy. Fastball in high 80's, topped at 90 mph. 34 fastballs. 5 change-ups, 3 curves, 1 slider. 9 ground outs. #RedSox

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I've all but given up on Doubie. 

    He's got nasty stuff and awesome potential, but I just can't take it anymore.

    Sox4ever

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Salty is on pace to cost his team 15 runs defensively this year. He has a Rtot/yr of -15 ( total zone metrics ).

    Also hitting .212 in May after a strong start. He is not looking like he was a tough guy to lose. Pierzynskis defense has been a little below average in the same metrics. Salty still has a slight edge with the bat but is trending downward rapidly. 

    [/QUOTE]

    The problem for next year, or one of the problems, is that Pierzynski's ostensible replacement, Vasquez, has an OPS of under .450 last I checked. He should not be promoted with production like that.

    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Vasquez OPS is .650, not great but his defense is outstanding. HIs offense will improve as well, I believe, he has a nice compact swing and just needs more strike zone discipline. Between him and Swihart our catching situation looks very solid going forward.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Salty is on pace to cost his team 15 runs defensively this year. He has a Rtot/yr of -15 ( total zone metrics ).

    Also hitting .212 in May after a strong start. He is not looking like he was a tough guy to lose. Pierzynskis defense has been a little below average in the same metrics. Salty still has a slight edge with the bat but is trending downward rapidly. 

    [/QUOTE]

    The problem for next year, or one of the problems, is that Pierzynski's ostensible replacement, Vasquez, has an OPS of under .450 last I checked. He should not be promoted with production like that.

    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Vasquez OPS is .650, not great but his defense is outstanding. HIs offense will improve as well, I believe, he has a nice compact swing and just needs more strike zone discipline. Between him and Swihart our catching situation looks very solid going forward.

     

    I think we will sign a midlevel free agent catcher to a one year deal to allow us to break in Vazquez slowly next year.

     
  9. This post has been removed.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to FriendsofFrazee's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Let the games begin...

    The Sox have a strong and deep roster and should be strong contenders 

    [/QUOTE]


    LOL

     

    It would be even funnier, if you found an old quote of mine from last spring where I said we had basically no chance to compete for a ring in 2013.

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Maybe I should save this for the 2015 thread, but I can't help looking towards next year and beyond. I guess with some of the positional moves I am suggesting, we should look to start them this year, so it could be viewed as a 2014 issue.

    I think the main core foundation to our long term outlook should be this:

    C: Vazquez and/or Swihart

    2B: Pedroia

    3B: Bogaerts

    LF: Cecchini

    CF: Betts

    SP: Owens

     

    Additional strength could come from:

    SS: Marrero

    IF: Rijo

    3B: Devers

    OF: JBJ

    OF: Ramos

    SP: de la Rosa, Webster (RP?), Barnes, Ranaudo, B Johnson

    RP: Tazawa, Workman, Britton

     

    Still hope (???) for Middy, Carp, Nava, Buch and Doubront

     

    Put it all together...

    SP: Lackey, Buch, Doubront, de la Rosa, Owens (Ranaudo/Barnes/Johnson)

    RP: Tazawa, Workman, Webster, Britton, Wilson, N Ramirea

    C: Vazquez, Swihart

    1B: Middy, T.Shaw

    2B: Pedey, Rijo

    SS: Marrero, Holt (Bogey)

    3B: Bogaerts, Devers (Rijo/Cecchini)

    LF: Cecchin, Hassan

    CF: Betts, JBJ

    RF: Ramos (JBJ), 

    DH: Coyle, Lava, Nava (Cecchini/Rijo)

     

    Of course some FAs will fill in some gaps, but there's a lot to hope for here.

     

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Some players will need to be added to the 40 man roster this winter...

    The following players will be eligible for the December 2014 Rule 5 Draft if they are not added to the 40-man roster by November 20, 2014:

    Jonathan Aro, Matt Barnes, Wilfredo Boscan, Michael Brenly, Corey Brown, Miguel Celestino, David Chester, Sean Coyle, William Cuevas, Jacob Dahlstrand, Keury De La Cruz, Dayan Diaz, Luis Diaz, John Ely, Jason Garcia, Matt Gedman, Sergio Gomez, Bo Greenwell, Dreily Guerrero, Williams Jerez, Ellis Jimenez, Matty Johnson, Zach Kapstein, Jesus Loya, Mike McCarthy, Matty Ott, Mickey Pena, Aneudis Peralta, Oscar Perez, Kendrick Perkins, Carlos Pinales, Noe Ramirez, Henry Ramos, Carlos Rivero, Tim Roberson, Robby Scott, Travis Shaw, David Sopilka, Matt Spring, Blake Swihart, Jose Valdez, Brayan Villarreal, Shannon Wilkerson, Madison Younginer

    Sox4ever

     
  13. This post has been removed.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to FriendsofFrazee's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to FriendsofFrazee's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Let the games begin...

    The Sox have a strong and deep roster and should be strong contenders 

    [/QUOTE]


    LOL

     

    It would be even funnier, if you found an old quote of mine from last spring where I said we had basically no chance to compete for a ring in 2013.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Or if I found an older quote from June of 2012 where you kept saying it's early and they will get their act together and make the playoffs.

    [/QUOTE]


    True enough, and guess what we should take out of all of this is that baseball is darn hard to project!

    I also remember that in 2011, many were writing us off early in the season, then jumped on the band wagon pretending to be believers all along, then jumped back off when the wheels came off the wagon.

    It's been a roller coaster the last few years: from year to year and within each year.

    That's why the games are played on the field- not on paper.

    What a great game it is!

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to FriendsofFrazee's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to FriendsofFrazee's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Let the games begin...

    The Sox have a strong and deep roster and should be strong contenders 

    [/QUOTE]


    LOL

     

    It would be even funnier, if you found an old quote of mine from last spring where I said we had basically no chance to compete for a ring in 2013.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Or if I found an older quote from June of 2012 where you kept saying it's early and they will get their act together and make the playoffs.

    [/QUOTE]


    True enough, and guess what we should take out of all of this is that baseball is darn hard to project!

    I also remember that in 2011, many were writing us off early in the season, then jumped on the band wagon pretending to be believers all along, then jumped back off when the wheels came off the wagon.

    It's been a roller coaster the last few years: from year to year and within each year.

    That's why the games are played on the field- not on paper.

    What a great game it is!

    [/QUOTE]


    [object HTMLDivElement]  Agree 100 %.   You , yourself often become too wrapped up in the numbers game. Nothing wrong with that. But each ball game is a contest in it's own right. Often , it is one or two plays , made or not made, that makes all the difference. I can appreciate all of the different stats that are available, but baseball is more than that. If it was easy to predict, one could become rich betting on the outcomes. But it is not. It is the best of all sports. A shame that so many young people don't appreciate that.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    You , yourself often become too wrapped up in the numbers game. Nothing wrong with that. But each ball game is a contest in it's own right. Often , it is one or two plays , made or not made, that makes all the difference. I can appreciate all of the different stats that are available, but baseball is more than that. If it was easy to predict, one could become rich betting on the outcomes. But it is not. It is the best of all sports. A shame that so many young people don't appreciate that.

    It is a great game.

    Although I love the numbers involved with baseball, I know the game transcends them. I played the game for many many years and enjoyed every minute of it. I know there are important parts of the game that no stat of metric touches or comes close to quantifying, but I still realize that many numbers and metrics do reflect some skill sets of players. Of course, they do not always project what that player will do going forwards, and that is true in all sports.

    When a GM puts together a team or makes adjustments to an existing team, he must look beyond numbers, but that too is to a large extent a guessing game as much as projecting future performance based on past performance numbers.

    I hear a lot about "clutch hitting", well, how does a great GM find and acquire a "clutch hitter", when the fact is, no player remains "clutch" over a whole season, a whole decade or a whole career. You see a guy like Beckett lead his team to a ring in 2007, then apparently become a cancer in the clubhouse. There are so many factors beyond the control of a GM, a manager, a team, a player, and as you pointed out, a play here and there made or not made that can turn a game around, turn a team around, turn a season around...

    That's why I try to not get obsessed with assigning blame on a GM, manager or player when things go wrong in a season. I know I have been critical often enough to not be able to throw stones at others for being hyper critical, and with over 40,000 posts over the years- most of which give specific opinions, I'm bound to be wrong a few thousand times.

    I'm OK with that. I've been right quite a few thousand times as well, and to me, that is part of the fun of watching the games: to see how my expectations turn out.

    Sox4ever

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Workman looked very good tonight. What a great plus he could be, if he could consistently give is games like tonight.

    Holt should not be viewed as a fluke. I really respect notin, but I do not think the Ciriaco analogy was fitting.

    Ciriaco had a .300 OBP in over 3700 minor league PAs.  (It is .302 career in MLB now.)

    Holt has a .372 minor league OBP in over 2000 PAs.  (Holt's career MLB OBP was .340 before tonight's game.)

    Sox4ever

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from billge. Show billge's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    don't forget Margot

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to billge's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    don't forget Margot

    [/QUOTE]


    He's only 19, and I was looking more at 2015 and 2016 than beyond, but yes, some day he could be a big contributor in our OF.

    I know all of these guys are not going to be plus players, but here's how I see the best utilization of their positions by 2016 or maybe earlier for some here:

    C  Vazquez/Swihart

    1B Napoli/Carp & Middy/Shaw

    2B Pedey/Holt & Rijo (Betts as depth)

    3B Bogey/ Holt (Cecchini/Middy as depth)- Devers down the line

    SS Holt/Marrero

    LF Holt?/Nava/Cecchini - Margot down the line

    CF JBJ/Betts

    RF Vic/JBJ & Hassan

    DH Ortiz/Coyle/Brentz

     

    RF Vic (JBJ/Nava depth)/ Hassan/

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Nava is really heating up.

    I'm not sure it will be enough, but maybe some others can come to life and make a run before the trade deadline.

    Sox4ever

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from billge. Show billge's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Like your breakdown, have youl looked at Asuaje in Greenville ?

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Workman looked very good tonight. What a great plus he could be, if he could consistently give is games like tonight.

    Holt should not be viewed as a fluke. I really respect notin, but I do not think the Ciriaco analogy was fitting.

    Ciriaco had a .300 OBP in over 3700 minor league PAs.  (It is .302 career in MLB now.)

    Holt has a .372 minor league OBP in over 2000 PAs.  (Holt's career MLB OBP was .340 before tonight's game.)

    Sox4ever

    [/QUOTE]

    I completely agree, Holt always had a great hit tool.  Never really had any other tools that stood out and has little to no power, but the hit tool is there and that is single handily the most important tool a player can have.  Holt is a high floor low ceiling kind of player.  While I wouldn't go so far to call what he is doing now a fluke, I would say that he is due for a regression....he's good....but he isn't this good.  But we got to ride the high now...this team team needs anything it can get.  

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to billge's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Like your breakdown, have youl looked at Asuaje in Greenville ?

    [/QUOTE]

    Asuaje is looking like a really good pick for an 11th rounder.  But for a 22 year old in Greenville it isn't out of this world to be putting up big numbers.  I'm not trying to knock the kid, it's not his fault....he can only play were he is put.  None the less, it is very impressive what he is doing but he will be challenged when he moves up the ladder.  If his numbers carry up to the next level, he could see his stock rise pretty fast.  Good speed too, perhaps he is more but I can see him as a really valuable utility guy one day.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from billge. Show billge's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Witte putting up numbers there too, but he is no kid either

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to billge's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Witte putting up numbers there too, but he is no kid either

    [/QUOTE]

    Another guy putting up impressive stats.  With the minor league all star games coming up we should start to see a lot of organizational promotions, and then we get to see what some of these guys can do.  Second half of the season is always more interesting.

     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share