A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I really think our farm system is still very strong- top to bottom- even with the graduation of Bogey, de la Rosa, and others.

    Sox4ever

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I really think our farm system is still very strong- top to bottom- even with the graduation of Bogey, de la Rosa, and others.

    Sox4ever

    [/QUOTE]

    Me too.  I thnk people get confused at how strong a farm is based off of kids being able to immediately being able to contribute. A lot of that talent could be in AA/A a few years away.  

    The Sox have one of the best farm systems, but the majority of our ready to near ready MLB talent is in the pitching and pitching isn't the problem right now. 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Also have a strong farm system doesn't mean you have a top prospect at every position.  Every farm system, even the strongest we've seen across all 30 teams over the past decade have had holes.  Ours is near ready outfield talent.  That's just the way it is, years ago it was pitching.

    Might be a tough pill to swallow given our current situation but all things considered I'd rather be stacked with pitching than outfielders. 

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Sox prospects' top OPS (35+ PAs)

    1.351  Devers

    1.021  Basabe (Luis Alexander)

    0.971 Asuaje

    0.962 Witte

    0.958 Betts

    0.939 Coyle

    0.897 Heller

    0.890  Gragnani

    0.890  Shaw

    0.886  Perkins

    0.875  Roof 

    0.868  Blair

    0.834  Holt

    Other notables:

    Ramos .799

    Swihart .785

    Brentz .765

    Sox4ever

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I really think our farm system is still very strong- top to bottom- even with the graduation of Bogey, de la Rosa, and others.

    Sox4ever

    [/QUOTE]

    Me too.  I thnk people get confused at how strong a farm is based off of kids being able to immediately being able to contribute. A lot of that talent could be in AA/A a few years away.  

    The Sox have one of the best farm systems, but the majority of our ready to near ready MLB talent is in the pitching and pitching isn't the problem right now. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Do you know any service that ranks prospects by level or age?

    I'd like to see how our low minors stack up against the rest of the league. I realize a lot of those type rankings would be based on conjecture more than actual observed professional performance, but I'd be curious what the "experts" think.

    Since Workman and JBJ have graduated, things have shuffled around a bit, but here's a rough draft of my All Prospects Teams by age groups:

    Position   17-21             22+

    C                              22 Swihart  /23 Vazquez

    1B  18  Longhi         24 Shaw/Witte

    2B  21 Asuaje/18 Acosta    22 Coyle

    3B  17 Devers          23 Cecchini

    SS  20  T-W Lin/18 Guerra   23 Marrero

    LF  19 Margot           26 Hassan

    CF  21 Betts              22 de la Cruz

    RF  17 Basabe/19  Hudson      22 Ramos/ 25 Brentz

    SP  21 Owens           24 Ranaudo

    SP  19  Callahan       23Barnes

    SP  20 Stankie         24 Webster

    SP  21 L Diaz            23 Johnson   

    SP  21 Kukuk            22 Mercedes

    SP  18 Almonte         22 Littrel/23 Light/24 Couch

    RP                            25 Britton

    RP                            27 Wilson 

    RP                            24 N Ramirez

     

    It may be the "homer" in me, but I'm guessing we'd be top 10 in each of the low minors, mid minors and high minors.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Baseball America does a top 20 prospect ranking by each individual league in the minor league system down to the rookie leagues. 

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/league-top-20-prospects-index-2/

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Baseball America does a top 20 prospect ranking by each individual league in the minor league system down to the rookie leagues. 

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/league-top-20-prospects-index-2/" rel="nofollow">http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/league-top-20-prospects-index-2/

    [/QUOTE]

    Thanks. I wish the lists went to 50 or a 100 instead of 20, but it's good to see where the "experts" place our lower level prospects.

    2013 had...

    GCL: Rijo #9

    Carolina league: Owens #4, Cecchini #6, Betts #7, Marrero #13

    Eastern League: Bogey #1, Cecchini #14, Ranaudo #16, Workman #19

    International League: Bogey #1, JBJ #8

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Baseball America does a top 20 prospect ranking by each individual league in the minor league system down to the rookie leagues. 

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/league-top-20-prospects-index-2/" rel="nofollow">http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/league-top-20-prospects-index-2/" rel="nofollow">http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/league-top-20-prospects-index-2/

    [/QUOTE]

    Thanks. I wish the lists went to 50 or a 100 instead of 20, but it's good to see where the "experts" place our lower level prospects.

    2013 had...

    GCL: Rijo #9

    Carolina league: Owens #4, Cecchini #6, Betts #7, Marrero #13

    Eastern League: Bogey #1, Cecchini #14, Ranaudo #16, Workman #19

    International League: Bogey #1, JBJ #8

     

    [/QUOTE]

    you could but it would be effectively useless.  If you combined it it would be like a top 1,000 and the further down prospect rankings you go the more fluidity there is.  For example there can be a huge difference between the #1 prospect and the #10.  But how much difference is there between a guy ranked 100th vs. 150th???? not nearly as much. 

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Baseball America does a top 20 prospect ranking by each individual league in the minor league system down to the rookie leagues. 

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/league-top-20-prospects-index-2/" rel="nofollow">http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/league-top-20-prospects-index-2/" rel="nofollow">http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/league-top-20-prospects-index-2/" rel="nofollow">http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/league-top-20-prospects-index-2/" rel="nofollow">http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/league-top-20-prospects-index-2/

    [/QUOTE]

    Thanks. I wish the lists went to 50 or a 100 instead of 20, but it's good to see where the "experts" place our lower level prospects.

    2013 had...

    GCL: Rijo #9

    Carolina league: Owens #4, Cecchini #6, Betts #7, Marrero #13

    Eastern League: Bogey #1, Cecchini #14, Ranaudo #16, Workman #19

    International League: Bogey #1, JBJ #8

     

    [/QUOTE]

    you could but it would be effectively useless.  If you combined it it would be like a top 1,000 and the further down prospect rankings you go the more fluidity there is.  For example there can be a huge difference between the #1 prospect and the #10.  But how much difference is there between a guy ranked 100th vs. 150th???? not nearly as much. 

    [/QUOTE]


    True, but my guess is there'd be some nice talented ranked #51 to 75 at the lower levels. Certainly those ranked 21 to 40 or so.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Sometimes a guy can get largely overlooked as well. For example Workman wasn't highly regarded 2 years ago and now he looks like a starting pitcher in mlb. I think Coyle might end up being a decent mlb player someday and until this year he was almost regarded as a washout. There are so many adjustments needed along the way. Will JBJ ever make the adjustments he needs to make right now? Maybe, maybe not. 

    That's why I love hoarding prospects. It helps to have numbers. Look at De Larosa. Maybe the Dodgers liked him a lot. Maybe they didn't think he probably would ever have enough control. Same for Webster. Obtain 2 of them though and maybe you have a real decent chance one hits.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Sometimes a guy can get largely overlooked as well. For example Workman wasn't highly regarded 2 years ago and now he looks like a starting pitcher in mlb. I think Coyle might end up being a decent mlb player someday and until this year he was almost regarded as a washout. There are so many adjustments needed along the way. Will JBJ ever make the adjustments he needs to make right now? Maybe, maybe not. 

    That's why I love hoarding prospects. It helps to have numbers. Look at De Larosa. Maybe the Dodgers liked him a lot. Maybe they didn't think he probably would ever have enough control. Same for Webster. Obtain 2 of them though and maybe you have a real decent chance one hits.

    [/QUOTE]

    I've been saying I'd like a bit more quality over quantity in our minors, but without getting 1st picks overall, that's not easy to do. I like what we have, and I hope this year's draft choices rise quickly too.

    de la Rosa looked masterful tonight!

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    At 3.91 runs scored per game, the 2014 Red Sox are on pace to being the second lowest-scoring Red Sox team since 1968, the Year of the Pitcher.  The only other team that was worse was the 1992 team.

    Since May 15, the Red Sox have had 3 separate 3-game stretches where they've scored 5 runs total, or less.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    At 3.91 runs scored per game, the 2014 Red Sox are on pace to being the second lowest-scoring Red Sox team since 1968, the Year of the Pitcher.  The only other team that was worse was the 1992 team.

    Since May 15, the Red Sox have had 3 separate 3-game stretches where they've scored 5 runs total, or less.

    [/QUOTE]


    It's really been bad, so far this year. I think the loss of Vic, the slow start by JBJ, Nava and others have added to the loss of our leadoff hitter to the Yanks. 

    It's really quite amazing when you look at the OPS drop off from last year position by position:

    Catcher

    .787 2013 (Salty 461, Ross 115, Lava 76)

    .644 2014 (AJP 198, Ross 84)

    -.143

     

    1B:

    .841 2013 (Naps 538, Carp 91, Nava 41, Papi 23)

    .771 2014 (Naps 214, Carp 39, Holt 29, Nava 14, Ortiz 10)

    -.070

     

    2B:

    .786 2013 (Pedey 723. others 16)

    .710 2014 (Pedey 313, Herrera 15)

    -.076

     

    3B:

    .683 2013 (Middy 369, Iggy 123, Holt 69, Snyder 39, Bogey & Ciriaco 23 each)

    .670 2014 (Holt 101, Middy 82, Bogey 54, Herrera 26, Roberts 21)

    -.013

     

    SS:

    .771 2013 (Drew 500, Iggy 107, Ciriaco 30, Bogey 25)

    .763 2014 (Bogey 229, Herrera 41, Drew 23)

    -.008

     

    LF:

    .790 2013 (Gomes 293, Nava 225, Carp 121, JBJ 39) *3rd highest positional OPS on the team.

    .734 2014 (Gomes 126, Sizemore 91, Carp 31, Holt 27, Nava 23)

    -.056

     

    CF:

    .774 2013 (Ellsbury 636, JBJ 65, Vic 52)

    .585 2014 (JBJ 218, Sizemore 55)

    -.189

     

    RF:

    .786 2013 (Vic 479, Nava 240)

    .581 2014 (Vic 99, Nava 82, Sizemo-re 58, Gomes 36, JBJ 15)

    -.205

     

    DH:

    .958 2013 (Ortiz 575, Napoli 37, Gomes 32, Nava 21)

    .824 2014 (Ortiz 279, AJP 14, Napoli 10)

    -.134

     

    -.205 RF: The loss of Vic to injuries does not excuse this horrible drop in OPS. I guess the injuries should not have come as a surprise, but his replacements have really tanked on offense.

    -.189 CF: The loss of Ellsbury made it expected, but nobody thought by this much. The .774 CF OPS in 2013 was not even all that impressive, so the 189 point drop here is shocking.

    -.143 C: I expected some loss here, but some gains on defense. 143 points is a lot.

    -.134 DH: We all knew a drop was going to happen sooner rather than later, but this is a pretty big drop. The bright side is that Papi is till on pace for about the same amount of HRs and RBIs as 2013.

    -.076 2B: I expected an uptick from Pedey. I hope this is not the sign of a longterm decline at a relatively early age for our 2Bman.

    -.070 1B: Napoli started off slow last year too, so this could turn plus by season's end.

    -.056 LF: LF was our 3rd best positional OPS in 2013 as I projected it might be. I projected the same this year.  Ooops! However, the drop-off has not been as great in LF as many other positions, so it's hard to blame our offensive woes on our LF'ers, as many have done.

    -.013 3B: 3B was so bad last year, it was hard to imagine not getting a gain here this year, but hopefully Bogey will turn this plus pretty quickly. (Maybe at the expense of turning SS to a minus)

    -.008 SS: I expected Bogey to turn this plus, even though the baseline was set pretty high in 2013 by good offensive performances by Drew and Iggy. With Bogey now moved to 3B and a rusty Drew at SS, I'm not expecting a gain anymore, but it could happen.

    Every position has seen a downturn. 

    A quick glance at some other measures, shows that our lack of offense has been the main reason for our lack of wins (not that anybody needed to be told that). However, our SP'ing has not helped much either.

    SP:

    2013: 3.84 ERA/ 1.29  WHIP/ .709 OPS against

    2014: 4.15 ERA/ 1.386 WHIP/ .756 OPS against

     

    RP:

    2013: 3.70 ERA/ 1.315 WHIP/ .710 OPS against

    2014: 2.80 ERA/ 1.214 WHIP/ .654 OPS against

    Our pen has been our only true brighter spot.

     

    Team Fielding:

    2013: 12th in Def and 11th in UZR/150

    2014: 10th in Def and 12th UZR/150

    Our defense looks to be about the same as 2013.

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    How's AJ P done with our staff so far? Here's a look...

     

    CERA should best be used to compare catchers on the same team pitcher by pitcher. Let's look at CERA. I know AJ's sample size is small, and we should give him a learning curve with this staff, but here are the numbers (Salty's 2013, AJ's 2014, and Ross' 2013-2014 combined):

    Lester

    AJP 6.00 (18)

    Ross 3.38 (144) /2.68 in '14 & 4.11 in '13

    Salty 3.58 (143)

     

    Lackey

    AJP 3.24 (94)

    Ross 2.38 (11) n/a in '14 & 2.38 in '13

    Salty 3.06 (147)

     

    Peavy

    AJP 4.86 (54) (4.28 career)

    Ross 3.54 (53)

    Salty 4.64 (33)

     

    Buchholz

    AJP 6.48 (42)

    Ross 3.06 (50)

    Salty 1.75 (67) (3.95 career)

     

    Doubront

    AJP 4.33 (27)

    Ross 6.91 (27)

    Salty 4.15 (137) (4.55 career)

     

    Workman

    AJP 2.67 (34)

    Ross 5.40 (5)

    Salty 5.00 (18)

     

    Uehara

    AJP 0.92 (20)

    Ross 0.70 (26)

    Salty 1.01 (54)

     

    Tazawa

    AJP 2.95 (18)

    Ross 3.00 (27)

    Salty 2.55 (49)

     

    Breslow

    AJP 3.65 (12)

    Ross 3.28 (25)

    Salty 2.32 (43) & 2.72 56 career

     

    Miller

    AJP 1.19 (23)

    Ross 5.59 (10)

    Salty 2.96 (24) 3.70 83 career

     

    Badenhop (2014 only)

    AJP 2.70 (23)

    Ross 0.00 (15)

     

    Like I said, it's early and the sample sizes are rather small to make definitive judgments, but so far AJ P has not appeared to improved the staff from 2013. We have been doing well lately with our ERA, so maybe the "learning curve" is over, and we will begin to see the improvement some of us expected.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Top Outfielder Yasmani Tomas Defects From Cuba
    By Steve Adams [June 20, 2014 at 9:08am CDT]


    One of the best players left in Cuba — outfielder Yasmani Tomas — has defected and will pursue a contract in Major League Baseball, reports Baseball America’s Ben Badler.

    The 23-year-old Tomas has five professional seasons under his belt, and his combination of age and experience will make him exempt from MLB’s international spending limitations, even after the rules become tighter on July 2 (at that point, the amount of pro experience needed for exemption jumps from three years to five years).

    Badler writes that Tomas, who stands 6’1″ and weighs 230 pounds, has 70-grade raw power (on the 20-80 scouting scale), and among current Cuban players, only the highly touted Alfredo Despaigne has more power. While Tomas has experience in center field and “decent” speed for his size, he’s ultimately a below-average runner and will have to play an outfield corner in the Majors. He does have some swing-and-miss tendencies and has shown weakness against plus velocity and breaking pitches. As such, some seasoning in Triple-A would do him some good, in Badler’s opinion, though he doesn’t rule out the possibility that Tomas could jump directly into a big league lineup. In response to a reader on Twitter, Badler notes that despite his upside, Tomas isn’t at the same level as White Sox slugger Jose Abreu, who was more polished coming out of Cuba.

    Giving an idea of the type of production he’s shown in Cuba’s Series Nacional over the past few seasons, Badler writes that Tomas slashed .301/.340/.580 with 16 homers in 240 plate appearances in the 2011-12 season and .289/.364/.538 with 15 homers in 324 PA in 2012-13. Tomas regressed, to an extent, in the 2013-14 season, though one source tells Badler it was likely due to an arm injury that he sustained when crashing into the outfield wall midway through the season. Even in his “down” year, Tomas batted a healthy .290/.346/.450 with six homers in 257 PA.

    Badler ranked Tomas as the No. 6 prospect in the 2013 World Baseball Classic. He trailed the likes of Masahiro Tanaka, Jose Abreu, the aforementioned Despaigne, top Cuban second baseman Jose Fernandez and slugging infielder Yulieski Gourriel (who has declined since and is now playing in Japan).

    Tomas is not yet eligible to sign, as he first needs to establish residence in a foreign country and then be cleared by both Major League Baseball and the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control. Once that happens, he will be declared a free agent and can sign with any team for any amount, but the timeline on those steps is never concrete, and Tomas may not end up signing until late in 2014 or even 2015.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Maybe it's time we made a big splash in the international market. The spending exemption is nice.

    Sox4ever

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    We're only a handful of games away from the halfway point of this season.

    Bogey has looked good at the plate. His .755 OPS in a low ML offense season is pretty good for a rookie.

    Holt has been the pleasant surprise and may get enough PAs to qualify for the batting title. His .374 OBP is second on the team only to Napoli's .379.

    Napoli's .793 OPS is better than it was last year on July 2nd (.776).

    Papi's .820 OPS is far below last year's numbers, but he's still on pace for about 30 HRs and 100 RBIs.

    The rest of the team have not met expectations- some by a long shot. It's not too late to turn things around, but time is running short.

    Our starting pitchers have given us many quality starts:

    80% Lackey

    67% Lester

    60% de la Rosa

    60% Peavy

    50% Buchholz

    40% Workman 

    40% Doubront

    (MLB average is 51%)

    If Workman and de la Rosa can do well going forward, we could make a run.

    There's about 6 weeks to go to the trade deadline. A lot can happen by then.

    Sox4ever

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    With Vic's chances of returning closing in on nil, I think this season is just about over.

    We have to seriously think about improving our 2015 and beyond roster while also opening up room to get some longer than expected looks at some prospects at the ML level - Vazquez, Ranaudo, Britton, Betts, Cecchini and maybe one final long look at Hassan, Wright, Lava and Wilson.

    I'm about ready to start the Realistic View at 2015: Part I before I post this year's part III thread, usually a week or two before the trade deadline.

    Sad days.

    Sox4ever

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    This is really the beginnings of next year's thread, but some of what happens next year might start at this trade deadline or waiver deal period:

    The 9 Free Agents: Staying or Departing?

    Lester: I'd offer close to $100M/5 take it or leave it. If Jon says no, then I'd look to trade him at the deadline or waiver period.

    Uehara: I'd offer close to $26M/2 and do the same as with Lester.

    Peavy: I'd look to trade him this year for the best we can get.

    Drew: Probably untradeable, unless we chip in $$$. Do not re-sign for next year.

    Pierzynski: Look to trade for a promising mid-level prospect. Do not re-sign.

    Gomes: See what we can get... Do not re-sign.

    Ross: Untradeable. Do not re-sign.

    Badenhop: Should bring back a nice mid-level prospect. Doubtful re-sign.

    Miller: Should bring back a nice prospect. Probably will not re-sign.

    For arguments sake, I will assume all these guys go to free agency, but that does not mean I do not want Lester, Uehara and maybe Miller back, or that they will not return, but I will leave their slots on the roster open.

    _____________________________________________

    Rule 5 Eligible Players (from soxprospects.com)

    The following players will be eligible for the December 2014 Rule 5 Draft if they are not added to the 40-man roster by November 20, 2014:

    Jonathan Aro, Matt Barnes, Wilfredo Boscan, Michael Brenly, Corey Brown, Miguel Celestino, David Chester, Sean Coyle, William Cuevas, Jacob Dahlstrand, Keury De La Cruz, Dayan Diaz, Luis Diaz, John Ely, Jason Garcia, Matt Gedman, Sergio Gomez, Bo Greenwell, Dreily Guerrero, Williams Jerez, Ellis Jimenez, Matty Johnson, Zach Kapstein, Jesus Loya, Mike McCarthy, Matty Ott, Mickey Pena, Aneudis Peralta, Oscar Perez, Kendrick Perkins, Carlos Pinales, Noe Ramirez, Henry Ramos, Carlos Rivero, Tim Roberson, Robby Scott, Travis Shaw, David Sopilka, Matt Spring, Blake Swihart, Andres Torres, Jose Valdez, Brayan Villarreal, Shannon Wilkerson, Madison Younginer

    4 Rule 5 Eligible Players added and 7 borderline additions (see final board)

    Mookie Betts does not need to be added to the 40 man roster until 2015, but I will assume he makes the roster next year.

    Deven Marrero does not need to be added until 2016, but may make the MLB club and need to be added.

    ____________________________________________

    The 7 Returning Players (barring trades) with Luxury Tax Salary Numbers

    $16M Napoli

    $15M Ortiz

    $13.7M Pedroia

    $13M Victorino

    $7.5M Buchholz

    $4.8M Mujica

    $0.5M Lackey

    The big 7 total: ~$70M

    ______________________________

    Club Options

    $4M Breslow Club Option with $100K buyout

    I'll assume he returns or is traded.

    Total: ~$75M

    _____________________________

    5 Arbs with 2013 salary

    $1.4M Carp (2nd of 3 arbs)

    $1.3M Herrera (3 of 3)

    $1.3M Tazawa (2 of 3)

    $586K Doubront (1 of 3)

    $557K Nava (1 of 3)

    I'll assume all return or are traded.

    The total salary should be about $7M combined.

    Total: ~$82M for 13 players.

    _________________________________

    The Non Arb Players Currently on the 40 Man Roster

    Middlebrooks

    Workman

    Bogaerts

    Bradley Jr.

    Wright

    Brentz

    Britton

    Butler

    Cecchini

    de la Rosa

    Hassan

    Holt

    Lavarnway

    Ranaudo

    Vazquez

    Webster

    Wilson

    _______________________________

    If we do not sign any free agents (impossible), then the other 27 players needed to make the 40 man roster would be paid about $14M total.

    Total: ~$96M

    Add: $10.1M for Player Benefits & $3.9M Dodger payment.

    TOTAL: ~$111M

    That leaves about $78M to spend on free agents above the minimum wage or other salary spent on who they replace.

    _________________________________________

    So here's the 40 Man Roster

    ________ denotes probable free agents slot

     

    SP (10): __________, __________, Lackey, Buchholz, de la Rosa, Workman, Ranaudo, Barnes, Owens, L. Diaz, Wright

    RP (7): __________, Tazawa, Breslow, Mujica, Doubront, Britton, Webster, A Wilson, N Ramirez, M Pena, S Gomez

    C (3): ___________, Vazquez, Swihart, Lavarnway, Butler

    1B (2): Napoli, Carp, T Shaw

    2B (1): Pedroia, Coyle

    3B (3): Bogaerts (SS?), Middlebrooks (LF/1B?), Cecchini (LF?)

    SS (1): __________, Herrera, Marrero

    LF (2): __________, Nava, Hassan

    CF (3): Betts, Bradley, H Ramos, C Brown

    RF (2): Victorino, Holt (IF/OF), Brentz, de la Cruz

    DH (1): Ortiz

    _________________________________________

    So, I have a minimal of 6 free agent signings and 35 players highlighted in green. Take away the $3.3M the free agents replace (assuming minimum wage players replaced) and we have about $80M to spend on the 6 free agents.

    The remaining 5 slots would be filled from the pool of 15 non highlighted players  (note: Marrero does not need to be added to keep in the system).

    I'd guess we keep Coyle, Shaw, Wilson, N Ramirez & Herrera.

    __________________________________

    With about $80M to spend on free agents and still remain under the luxury tax limit, we could possibly sign 4 big names and 2 role players or just 4 big names and backfill the rest.

    Pie-in-the-sky?

    $28M/yr Scherzer

    $20M/yr Lester

    $18M/yr N Cruz

    $14M/yr Uehara

    _____________________________

    There very well could be a trade or two that changes everything here, especially if we make a blockbuster for Stanton, but here is a nice framework to work off of.

    _____________________________

     

    Your thought and suggestions (or corrections) are welcome.

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I think there is a decent chance that Ramirez and Coyle take a 40 man spot over Luis Diaz at this point.  I didn't hear the greatest things about Diaz at the end of last year but he has definitely risen his stock, but so have Coyle and Ramirez and both those guys might be closer to the MLB.

    This could also be a futile argument on my part, because a lot of people on the 40 man now are going to be gone and some of those who will need to be put on may be traded.  It all comes down to who they think is closer to the bigs as well.  If they think player A is better than player B, but player A is much more raw and has little shot to sticking to a MLB roster they may be more inclined to add B to the 40 man if they like both guys. 

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think there is a decent chance that Ramirez and Coyle take a 40 man spot over Luis Diaz at this point.  I didn't hear the greatest things about Diaz at the end of last year but he has definitely risen his stock, but so have Coyle and Ramirez and both those guys might be closer to the MLB.

    This could also be a futile argument on my part, because a lot of people on the 40 man now are going to be gone and some of those who will need to be put on may be traded.  It all comes down to who they think is closer to the bigs as well.  If they think player A is better than player B, but player A is much more raw and has little shot to sticking to a MLB roster they may be more inclined to add B to the 40 man if they like both guys. 

    [/QUOTE]


    I agree, a lot of players I listed above will not be here next year. A couple of trades like a 5 for 1 deal for Stanton would open up spots for the borderline roster players with talent.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I'm not one to make knee-jerk comments based on just one game, but last night's game ended the last shred of hope I had for this season.

    I'm looking to 2015 and beyond now.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:


    I'm not one to make knee-jerk comments based on just one game, but last night's game ended the last shred of hope I had for this season.


    I'm looking to 2015 and beyond now.


    Sox4ever




    I wasn't too optimistic from the start of the season moon.  I at least hoped we could hang around until our FO finally made the big trade we have been begging for.  I agree it may be too late at this point to save 2014 but we should attempt to rebuild a bit now rather than waiting if the right player becomes available.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I wasn't too optimistic from the start of the season moon. I at least hoped we could hang around until our FO finally made the big trade we have been begging for. I agree it may be too late at this point to save 2014 but we should attempt to rebuild a bit now rather than waiting if the right player becomes available.

    I certainly did not expect or want the one deal we made during this season to be Drew.

    I did have higher hopes than you to start the season, but with almost everyone doing worse than expected or worse than 2013 all at once, there's not much to hope for at this point, except 2015 and beyond.

    I'll be rooting for us every game and pulling hard for our kids to shine, but I think we need to move some pieces for some young talent or promising low level prospects.

    Sox4ever

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:


     


    I wasn't too optimistic from the start of the season moon. I at least hoped we could hang around until our FO finally made the big trade we have been begging for. I agree it may be too late at this point to save 2014 but we should attempt to rebuild a bit now rather than waiting if the right player becomes available.


     certainly did not expect or want the one deal we made during this season to be Drew.


    I did have higher hopes than you to start the season, but with almost everyone doing worse than expected or worse than 2013 all at once, there's not much to hope for at this point, except 2015 and beyond


    I'll be rooting for us every game and pulling hard for our kids to shine, but I think we need to move some pieces for some young talent or promising low level prospects.


    Sox4ever 


    Quote:
    Agreed moon, the sooner we start the transition the quicker we become competitive again and we certainly have the resources to get things back on track.  We already have a good idea who won't here next season except maybe for youngsters or younger guys like Middy and JBJ who really need to show some bat and durability soon. Otherwise the FO will hand the job over to the hot hand like Betts, Holt or trade for another piece.  We won't stop rooting but every day we wait seems to dig us a bit deeper for 2014.  Blink your eye in this game and there is usually a kid who either wants or is ready to take your job.

     

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