A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    We are paying an over the hill, near the end of line Peavy 15 mil a year. Not to mention that we gave up a low cost, brilliant young shortstop to get him. And we are going to offer our own, home grown ace, one of the best pitchers in the game, the same deal ? And we expect him to happily accept it as a " home town discount ?" Is that a good way to run a business?

    I was against the Iggy trade, but in fairness, Iggy would not have played this year for us either.

    I'm not sure what the current offer is to Lester, so I have no opinion on that, but I'd offer him $105M/5 or $120M/6 take it or leave it by July 29th. If he says no, I'd trade him for the best prospects we can get in return.

    Sox4ever

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    It seems to me that given all the stock piling of arms and such, the Redsox plans are to develop from within almost entirely. I'm hopeful they do what it takes to sign Lester, which to me will be at least 5 years / $115 and likely more than that. Lester will want 6 years $136 or more. My guess is that the Redsox don't go there. That 6th year is a bridge too far.

    Look at what they did in the international signings just last week. They focused on two of the best arms, who look to be closest to mlb of any of the kids there. And then only a rangy SS for $300,000. So far that's it.

    They drafted a high upside starting pitching prospect with their # 7 pick 2 years ago. One of their top 2 picks last year was a starter. They have held on to all their top pitching prospects with everything they have got even when they are in tremendous demand this season. They could have traded one for a hitter. They didn't.

    They might sign Lester but I'm not counting on it. Overall, I think their plan is probably good. M/y only caveat is that sometimes they probably are going to have to spend for the next Pedro, Tanaka...etc...if they want to contend but I don't think that is their plan. They are going to spend a lot of money, but they will squeeze every dime before spending it.




    What other options are out there for replacing Lester?

    Scherzer may cost $30M per x who knows how many years.

    Price would cost a lot of prospects and the Rays might not deal him to us, even if we make the best offer.

    Anyone else?

    We cannot expect a bunch of kids to fill Lester's shoes, even if we give them 3-5 years to do so, which would basically mean we won't likely compete for that long.

    The young pitching prospects should be counted on to fill the 4 and 5 slots of our future rotation, unless and util they prove they are better. Until then, we should not count on them to lead us to rings.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Theo is showing what "proactive" means in MLB. I'm not saying he was right not to extend these guys, but he recognized the two sides were too far apart and he pulled the trigger and got some nice prospects instead of lousy comp picks.

    Sox4ever

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Stay tuned for A Realistic View at 2014: Part III

     

    and...

     

    A Realistic View at 2015: Part I

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Javi60. Show Javi60's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Stay tuned for A Realistic View at 2014: Part III

     

    and...

     

    A Realistic View at 2015: Part I



    The Realistic View  today is to forget this year and prepare from now  on a winning contender for 2016... next year only the valuable forge...

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I think we can contend in 2015.

    Sox4ever

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    We need to do this coming off season what we should have done last off season. You first have to recognize and admit your mistakes before you can correct them. This is looking more and more like a lost season. There are still some who insist that everything was done right.  Well, everything was not done right. We are seeing the results. We need to learn from it and get it right this time.

    Stabbed by Foulke.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Mod2. Show Mod2's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:





     






    In response to craze4sox's comment:



     






    In response to moonslav59's comment:











     






     






    At some point our FO needs to pay proven talent close what their value may be without expecting a huge home town discount.






     






    I get your point, but so far there have not been many departing Sox free agent that (at the time) I would have paid what they got and given the years they got. Not Ellsbury. Not Damon. Not Pedro.






     






    I like Salty at his contract, but I think the bridge was burned when he was benched in the WS.






     






    I would have liked to have seen Beltre back, but the years were long. In hindsight, maybe that was one to keep.






     






    I did not want to pay VMart a lot, but thought the Detroit deal was not outrageous. At the time, I mentioned I'd have offered a little more, but I'm not upset we lost him at that money, since I saw him as a 1Bman/DH not a catcher going forward, and we already had 1B & DH covered.






     






    I want to keep Lester. I'd seriously think about "overpaying" for him. We can't replace what he gives us easily, and we certainly can't afford to take a step back when we need to be looking to step forward.  I'd offer Lester close to $102/5 with a 6th year option at $15M with a $3M buyout, so essentially it would be a $105M/5 or $117M/6 deal.






     






    If he choose to say no, we have to get better than a draft choice, even if it means packing up our 2014 chances by trading him this July.






     






    It is decision time for Lester and the Sox.






     






    Sox4ever






     






     






     







    I completely agree moon, when you have a guy "only one really" that comes out every year and gives you 200 quality innings and is lights out in the PS you can't afford to lose him especially to a divisional rival.  Jon could be a difference maker to one of our rivals and another devastating loss to our club.  We have too many decisions to make offensively and defensively and with few arms "if any" ready to step in it's not worth the risk.  Sign Jon first, it won't kill us financially then begin to fix the offense with a big trade that brings us a Stanton type long term fixture.




     




     




     




     




     






    I'd probably offer a little more than my suggested offer, if that's what it would take to keep Jon here. Maybe add a 7th year.


     


     


     


     


    We'd have to sign Scherzer just to get back on track. How much will that take out of our winter spending budget?


     


     


     


    I certainly want Lester back, but my big emphasis at this point in the season is that we have to plan on getting the most we can for him, if we are not going to keep him. Getting just a draft pick for losing Lester would just about kill our hopes. If we got 2 or 3 very good prospects or 2 top prospects for Lester, we could then afford to package multiple prospects for someone like Stanton without sacrificing the future. We'll have enough budget space to make a good stab at replacing Lester, and maybe we come up a bit short there, but make up the difference when replacing Peavy.


     


     


     





    I am going to try to recreate the formatting issue by editing this post a few times. With apologies to Moon....


     


    Lets see if we are still getting the sea of white. If others find good examples let please send me the link.


    Never mind. I think I have sufficiently screwed up this thread so that it can serve as an excellent example for the management. Thanks for your indulgence.


     


     


     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    I completely agree moon, when you have a guy "only one really" that comes out every year and gives you 200 quality innings and is lights out in the PS you can't afford to lose him especially to a divisional rival. Jon could be a difference maker to one of our rivals and another devastating loss to our club. We have too many decisions to make offensively and defensively and with few arms "if any" ready to step in it's not worth the risk. Sign Jon first, it won't kill us financially then begin to fix the offense with a big trade that brings us a Stanton type long term fixture.

     

    It really seems simpler than it probably will be, but that's pretty much it in a nutshell. Bring Lester and Uehara back, trade for Stanton, and fill in some key slots with mid-level FA signings or another big bat like Cuddyer. We have the resources to do all of this and still have a nice farm and budget space to make adjustments next deadline.

    Sox4ever

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    It's back...Finally! And the hacker of the year award goes to....me.

     
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