A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    realistically in 2014, what are the odds we trade Bogaerts?  Why would anyone want to trade Bogaerts?

    We get a top prospect, with the most amount of hype Boston has had in over a decade......and we debate trading him?

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Here's how "off-the-charts" great Simmons has been at SS...

    2004-2013 UZR/150 (750+ innings)

    26.1  Simmons

    19.0  Punto

    16.9  Everett

    16.5  Iglesias

    11.7  B Ryan

    11.1  Vizquel

    (Notice how the Sox had control of 3 of the top 4 defensive SSs at some point in their careers.)

    Simmons is nearly 10 points higher than the next full time SS on the list (Everett).

    He is 24. He came up at 23. As for his hitting ability: he has a .256 career BA, .304 OBP and .400 SLG in just 840 ML PAs. His career line in the minors in just 1042 PAs with none at the AAA level and only 203 at the AA level.

    .299  6  99  (54 SB/24 CS in 237 games)

    .299/.352/.397/.749

    [/QUOTE]

    Elvis Andrus isn't even on the chart, as good as he has been.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    No AAA at bats for Simmons really sticks out doesn't it. He was so good defensively they rushed him. Which in part is why I think his bat improves over time. For a while there his defensive numbers were even better, in 2012.

    In 2013 he saved his team 41 runs defensively at SS. That is off the charts great. In only 49 games played in 2012 he saved his team 19 runs. He was on pace to save his team almost 60 runs in 2012 defensively over a full season.

    As good as Drew was at SS last year, he saved his team a total of 2 runs as compared to a league average SS.

    Yeah, I'd probably trade Bogaerts for Simmons. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if Bogaerts out hits him by a wide margin but he will never touch that glove.

    [/QUOTE]

    You know I am a huge fan of SS defense, but I couldn't see myself pulling the trigger on a Bogey-Simmons trade. I guess if I felt better and knew more about about Simmons' offense, I'd do it.

    41 runs saved is a lot to make up for by Bogey's bat.

    [/QUOTE]

    Simmons had a BAPIP of .247 last year, as compared to around .300 the year before, yet he still hit 17 HR. His strikeout to walk ratio is good. His bat is going to be fine. He just signed a 7 year extension for around $58 mil. He will be under control for a while. His floor is great because of the super defense and indications are his bat clearly gets better.

    I hear you regarding even thinking about trading Bogaerts but Simmons has a proven track record by now. He probably is a .275 hitting SS with 20 HR pop and an off the charts glove form the next 6 years. As good as Boggy is projected to be, and I am a true believer, I still like the sure thing with those sorts of defensive numbers.

    Our best shot is that Bogaerts becomes an off the charts offensive player. He has a chance to be a .300 average, 30-35 HR type bat. And he is cheap and controllable. I'm a fan!

     

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    No AAA at bats for Simmons really sticks out doesn't it. He was so good defensively they rushed him. Which in part is why I think his bat improves over time. For a while there his defensive numbers were even better, in 2012.

    In 2013 he saved his team 41 runs defensively at SS. That is off the charts great. In only 49 games played in 2012 he saved his team 19 runs. He was on pace to save his team almost 60 runs in 2012 defensively over a full season.

    As good as Drew was at SS last year, he saved his team a total of 2 runs as compared to a league average SS.

    [/QUOTE]

    Where do you get these numbers from, Prospects?

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Fangraphs DRS stats.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I simply do not believe any SS can ever save 41 runs unless you compare him to a really weak fielding SS.  

    [/QUOTE]

    It's a fangraphs stats. Look under "Advanced Fielding". DRS is defined as:

    DRS - Total Defensive Runs Saved runs above average (Fielding Bible)

    Simmons is the best defensive SS of the 21st century.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    If Drew signs with Detriot we would move up to 25th in the draft and our comp picks would move up to 32nd and we gain an extra at 33.  Of course they get bumped back up to 33/34 if Morales signs.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    My daughter is in town for the weekend, so although I went to the game tonight, I won't have time for much "reporting" until Monday PM. Capuano and Lester were very good tonight, Badenhop not so good.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    If Drew signs with Detriot we would move up to 25th in the draft and our comp picks would move up to 32nd and we gain an extra at 33.  Of course they get bumped back up to 33/34 if Morales signs.

     

    If Morales signs with Seattle, nothing changes.

     

    If Detroit signs Drew...

     

    24) Oakland

    25) Boston

    26) St. Louis

    (Seattle- Morales?)

    27) KC- (for Santana)

    28) Cincy (for Choo)

    29) Texas (for Cruz)

    30) Cleveland (for Jimenez)

    31) Atlanta (for McCann)

    32) Boston (for Ellsbury)

    33) Boston (for Drew)

    34) St. Louis (for Beltran)

     then, the Competitive Balance Round A (#35-41) and 2nd Round (#42 >>).

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If Drew signs with Detriot we would move up to 25th in the draft and our comp picks would move up to 32nd and we gain an extra at 33.  Of course they get bumped back up to 33/34 if Morales signs.

     

    If Morales signs with Seattle, nothing changes.

     

    If Detroit signs Drew...

     

    24) Oakland

    25) Boston

    26) St. Louis

    (Seattle- Morales?)

    27) KC- (for Santana)

    28) Cincy (for Choo)

    29) Texas (for Cruz)

    30) Cleveland (for Jimenez)

    31) Atlanta (for McCann)

    32) Boston (for Ellsbury)

    33) Boston (for Drew)

    34) St. Louis (for Beltran)

     then, the Competitive Balance Round A (#35-41) and 2nd Round (#42 >>).

    [/QUOTE]


    If Drew does sign, and then Morales signs with a team whose pick is unprotected we could then potentially sit at #24 #31 and #32

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If Drew signs with Detriot we would move up to 25th in the draft and our comp picks would move up to 32nd and we gain an extra at 33.  Of course they get bumped back up to 33/34 if Morales signs.

     

    If Morales signs with Seattle, nothing changes.

     

    If Detroit signs Drew...

     

    24) Oakland

    25) Boston

    26) St. Louis

    (Seattle- Morales?)

    27) KC- (for Santana)

    28) Cincy (for Choo)

    29) Texas (for Cruz)

    30) Cleveland (for Jimenez)

    31) Atlanta (for McCann)

    32) Boston (for Ellsbury)

    33) Boston (for Drew)

    34) St. Louis (for Beltran)

     then, the Competitive Balance Round A (#35-41) and 2nd Round (#42 >>).

    [/QUOTE]


    If Drew does sign, and then Morales signs with a team whose pick is unprotected we could then potentially sit at #24 #31 and #32

    [/QUOTE]

    3 in the top 32 would be really nice, but we really need Drew to sign before June.

    Pretty amazing to win a WS and then look this well situated for the next draft.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    It is possible that Drew might not sign until after the draft but he may well do something in the next 2 weeks. He probably is not going to get what he is looking for either way. It's not just the draft pick hurting him. Some might think playing in Boston helped his offensive numbers a little and although he is supposed to be excellent defensively the numbers do not really show that. He's an above average SS to me. Nothing more. If you expect big bucks you probably need to be way above average and definitely not have a pick attached.

    I projected a couple months ago that Drew might not even get signed until June and everyone on another forum thought I was crazy. Even the best get it wrong sometimes. The new CBA obviously creates change and sometimes the people most involved are the last ones to see it. Including Drew.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    So, are we going to trade Carp or what!

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    So, are we going to trade Carp or what!

    [/QUOTE]

    My depth chart:

    1B: Napoli, Papi, Nava, 3 way tie: Middy, Cecchini or Carp

    LF: Nava, Gomes, Sizemore, 3 way tie: Hassan, Brentz or Carp

    As good as Carp looked last year, he's really just tied for 4th at two positions.

    Now, of course we don't want Papi or Nava playing 1B for long stretches, so an argument could be made that Carp is the #2 1Bman, but if Napoli does get a major injury, finding a capable 1Bman is about the easiest position to do so- mid season.

    Carp should only play in the OF, if two of our OF'ers are hurt, and even then, it should not be longterm. If our best 2 OF'er get hurt (Shane and Nava), I'd start these guys:

    LF: Gomes

    CF: JBJ

    RF: Sizemore

    (Call up the hotter of Brentz or Hassan as the 4th OF'er.)

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

     Cafardo reports, with the renaissance of Grady Sizemore and the very good camps of Bryce Brentz and Corey Brown, the Red Sox's outfield depth could lead to a trade. Mike Carp is the leading candidate to be dealt because of his ability to also play the infield corners. The TigersBrewers, and Pirates have reportedly shown interest in the 27-year-old.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from javaukti1. Show javaukti1's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     Cafardo reports, with the renaissance of Grady Sizemore and the very good camps of Bryce Brentz and Corey Brown, the Red Sox's outfield depth could lead to a trade. Mike Carp is the leading candidate to be dealt because of his ability to also play the infield corners. The TigersBrewers, and Pirates have reportedly shown interest in the 27-year-old.

    [/QUOTE]

    I'm not so sure. The outfield is the one position we lack depth. And at 1st base. What we'd want in return for Mike carp is a player like Mike carp.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to javaukti1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     Cafardo reports, with the renaissance of Grady Sizemore and the very good camps of Bryce Brentz and Corey Brown, the Red Sox's outfield depth could lead to a trade. Mike Carp is the leading candidate to be dealt because of his ability to also play the infield corners. The TigersBrewers, and Pirates have reportedly shown interest in the 27-year-old.

    [/QUOTE]

    I'm not so sure. The outfield is the one position we lack depth. And at 1st base. What we'd want in return for Mike carp is a player like Mike carp.

    [/QUOTE]

    We'd probably get a RH'd OF'er, an OF'er that plays decent CF or a pitcher.

    1Bmen are a dime a dozen, and we will be moving somebody (Cecchini or Middy) from 3B to 1B within the next year.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If Drew signs with Detriot we would move up to 25th in the draft and our comp picks would move up to 32nd and we gain an extra at 33.  Of course they get bumped back up to 33/34 if Morales signs.

     

    If Morales signs with Seattle, nothing changes.

     

    If Detroit signs Drew...

     

    24) Oakland

    25) Boston

    26) St. Louis

    (Seattle- Morales?)

    27) KC- (for Santana)

    28) Cincy (for Choo)

    29) Texas (for Cruz)

    30) Cleveland (for Jimenez)

    31) Atlanta (for McCann)

    32) Boston (for Ellsbury)

    33) Boston (for Drew)

    34) St. Louis (for Beltran)

     then, the Competitive Balance Round A (#35-41) and 2nd Round (#42 >>).

    [/QUOTE]


    If Drew does sign, and then Morales signs with a team whose pick is unprotected we could then potentially sit at #24 #31 and #32

    [/QUOTE]

    3 in the top 32 would be really nice, but we really need Drew to sign before June.

    Pretty amazing to win a WS and then look this well situated for the next draft.

    [/QUOTE]


    Can't believe Mets have not been stronger in there pursuit of Drew. R.Tejada has been terrible in ST [after a terrible 2013], hitting below .100 and 5 errors in the last 7 games. Drew would so improve that team. Guess waiting for June and hope he's still available. Guess with Harvey out for season they have packed it in for year, even though they have a lot of young pitching. Alderson predicted 90 wins? who's he kidding w/ Tejada at SS.

     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Strange day at Fenway South. Fifteen runs scored and nineteen hits, many of which would have been outs had there not been a gale blowing straight out all game long. Lackey gave up five runs in five innings, four of them scored on two doubles (two runs each) that would have been outs. He threw strikes and generally pitched better than his stat line indicates. 

    Offensively the Sox came to life but Pedroia's homer and Lavarnway's would probably have been off the wall at best without the gale. Napoli's would have traveled through any wind. But there were lots of great at bats and some great defensive plays. Sizemore has an inside-out stroke that could have him tattooing the wall if he sticks and stays healthy. He is also a great centerfielder. He made a catch while crashing into the wall and then an even more spectacular diving catch. The issue will be to see if he can play the day after making plays like that. Bogey, Gomes, Pedey, AJ and Nava all hit shots. Ortiz is not swinging well at all.

    The bullpen was close to perfect. Farrell did something strange as he had Mujica get two outs in the 6th then brought in Rubby to get four outs. Maybe some of you watching on ESPN may have heard a reason why. Koji and Taz pounded the strike zone as always. 

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II



    Red Sox Shopping Ryan Lavarnway By  Steve Adams [March 17 at 1:39pm CST]

    Given their considerable depth behind the plate, the Red Sox have begun shopping Ryan Lavarnway, a source tells Sean McAdam of Comcast SportsNet New EnglandA.J. Pierzynski and David Ross will form the primary catching tandem at the Major League level, while Christian Vazquez and Daniel Butler will handle the catching duties at Triple-A Pawtucket.

    Boston has experimented with using Lavarnway at first base during Spring Training, which would likely be where he would receive most of his at-bats were he to open the season at Pawtucket. However, while that bit of experience could make him slightly more appealing in a trade, he's more valuable to the Red Sox or another club when he's catching.

    The 26-year-old Lavarnway was once considered Boston's catcher of the future and has ranked as a Top 100 prospect according to MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus as recently as 2012. He boasts a gaudy .284/.373/.471 batting line in 845 career plate appearances at Triple-A, although it's worth noting that he slipped to a .250/.346/.350 triple-slash in 2013. Lavarnway has also struggled at the Major League level, batting just .208/.258/.327 in 291 PAs.

    Many teams figure to be looking for catching help at this time of the year, and Lavarnway is attractive in that he can be controlled through at least the 2018 season (he has one year, 40 days of Major League service time). The Pirates learned today that Chris Stewart will probably need knee surgery (hat tip: Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette on Twitter), though they likely feel that they have another capable backup to Russell Martin in-house in the form of Tony Sanchez.

    The White Sox strike me as a possible fit, as they did little to address that need this offseason and are planning to give Tyler Flowers another opportunity at the job. Lavarnway would fit GM Rick Hahn's stated goal of adding controllable talent, and he's also younger than Flowers with a slightly better minor league track record. The Orioles are also said to be looking outside the organization for candidates to back-up Matt Wieters. Arizona has asked for catchers in trade proposals for their young shortstops as well; while Lavarnway wouldn't be enough for GM Kevin Towers to part with Chris Owings or Didi Gregorius, the mere fact that the D'Backs have prioritized catchers seems to suggest that they wouldn't mind adding some depth. Of course, all of these potential fits are just speculation on my behalf.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Can't believe Mets have not been stronger in there pursuit of Drew. R.Tejada has been terrible in ST [after a terrible 2013], hitting below .100 and 5 errors in the last 7 games. Drew would so improve that team. Guess waiting for June and hope he's still available. Guess with Harvey out for season they have packed it in for year, even though they have a lot of young pitching. Alderson predicted 90 wins? who's he kidding w/ Tejada at SS.

    I think the Mets know they will not seriously compete this year, so why spend big on Drew and lose a draft pick?

    I still think the Yanks make the most sense, but they'll never move Jeter to 2B or 3B.

    Detroit make ssense now, but word is, they are not interested.

    He may wait till June, which would hurt the Sox draft outlook.

    Maybe an injury somewhere will change a team's plans.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Strange day at Fenway South. Fifteen runs scored and nineteen hits, many of which would have been outs had there not been a gale blowing straight out all game long. Lackey gave up five runs in five innings, four of them scored on two doubles (two runs each) that would have been outs. He threw strikes and generally pitched better than his stat line indicates. 

    Offensively the Sox came to life but Pedroia's homer and Lavarnway's would probably have been off the wall at best without the gale. Napoli's would have traveled through any wind. But there were lots of great at bats and some great defensive plays. Sizemore has an inside-out stroke that could have him tattooing the wall if he sticks and stays healthy. He is also a great centerfielder. He made a catch while crashing into the wall and then an even more spectacular diving catch. The issue will be to see if he can play the day after making plays like that. Bogey, Gomes, Pedey, AJ and Nava all hit shots. Ortiz is not swinging well at all.

    The bullpen was close to perfect. Farrell did something strange as he had Mujica get two outs in the 6th then brought in Rubby to get four outs. Maybe some of you watching on ESPN may have heard a reason why. Koji and Taz pounded the strike zone as always. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Thanks for the report. Nothing like a strong wind to boost our hitters' conficence.

    Sizemore is really making a strong case for a starting job. It makes sense to me. Letting JBJ start in AAA could add a year of team control while allowing him to play everyday. It also allows us to keep Carp on the 25 man roster, at least until we see how things shake out with Sizemore, Middy, and unpredicatble health issues.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    So, Steve Adams mentions 4 places that make sense for a landing spot for Lavarnway: Pittsburgh, Baltimore, CWS and Arizona. Lava would not be enough to land us Owings or Gregorius, but maybe a 2 or 3 for 1 deal could be worked out. I'm nto sure what else Arizona wants or likes in our system, but who knows.

    I doubt any big deal happens, and I seriously doubt any of these teams are going to give us a key player in trade. More likely, it would just be a role player or another similar prospect at a position of higher need.

    With AJ P and Ross both with contracts running out this winter, it makes me wonder which is true (or both):

    1) The Sox have a lot of confidence in Vazquez, Swihart, Butler and Denney

    2) The Sox have lost confidence in Lava.

    Pie in the sky thinking: who would I like us tio try and get from thse 4 teams (within reason)?

    Pittsburgh: Maybe they might want Carp and Lava (and maybe a prospect of our own) for a RH'd OF prospect like Josh Bell or Harold Ramirez.

    Baltimore: How about Lava and Alex Wilson or Noe Ramirez for 25 year old "prospect" RH'd OF'er Francisco Peguero?

    White Sox: I doubt we could come up with enough to get Danks, so a  deal maybe like Lava, C Brown and Barnes or Ranaudo for Courtney Hawkins. Or, maybe Lava and someone else for Trayce Thompson or Keenyn Walker.

    Arizona: They have 3 SSs in Owings, Gregorius and Pennington. I'm not sure how much of an upgrade these guys are to Herrera, and none of them are good enough to think of moving Bogey to 3B for, but maybe a Lava and mid level prospect could land one to bolster our depth chart. Maybe we could trade Lava, Wilson, Coyle, and de la Cruz for Gregorius and Brandon Drury.

    I admit, I am no expert on other teams' prospects, but maybe something like this could be worked out.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Uehara, Tazawa and Mujica are looking fine so far!

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Great read...

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-most-interesting-al-contender-boston-red-sox/

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part II

    Moon, you've championed Mujica for a while and I'm excited about him being with the RS.  Lots of talk this morning about Sizemore.  With him reasonably healthy in CF, would you venture him a "wash" in contrast to Ells, or do we lose a little?  I know there's some talk about OF injuries during the year, but I more concerned about our "mature" catching corps.  I know we're backed up well, but catching is physically demanding and we've got two old guys, one of whom was out a lot last year.  This is shaping up as fun seeing what will happen in CF.  By the way, A's just lost their #1 to surgery and another starter has a sore arm...I'm not sure if we have an "excess" of starters anymore with Dempter's loss, but if Doolbie starts hot and Workman looks like he would/could step in, would we move Capuano for the right deal?  I'm also convinced Britton could come up in a fill in starting role and not embarrass himself...I still don't know how this happened.  Two summers ago we looked to be in the maws of hell's inferno and now we look like the Colossus of Rhodes...

     
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