A Realistic View at 2014: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    A Realistic View at 2014: Part III

    Let's face it. We are 9 games behind the last Wild Card slot with 6 teams between us and that 5th playoff slot. We are done for 2014. 


    Trading prospects to make a push for the playoffs would be pointless and wrong.


    Trading for a player under team control for several years is a possibility this deadline, but not likely.


    We have to look at improving out future as best we can and at least get some value out of this lost season. 


    I know it is not common for a team to several players at the deadline, but we have to try our best to get something for players that have no future with the Red Sox after this year. Here's a player-by-player rundown of what I think we need to do:


    Lester: We need to try and extend him or get a framework of understanding before the deadline comes and goes. Reportedly we offered him $70M/4 in the Spring. That is a slap in the face. News is that negotiations have reopened, and the number of $120M/5 has been floated out there as Lester's request. I'm no expert on contracts, but I think we should offer something like $105M/5 with a 6th year team option for $15M with a $5M buyout, essentially making it a $110M/5 or $120M/6 deal. To me, that is fair. Most importantly though, is that we need to know if this is close enough to Lester's lowest demand to feel safe that we will keep Lester in Boston. If we feel like we are too far apart, we have to trade him. It's really essential that we get more than a comp draft pick, if Lester walks. It might take us years to recover losing Lester for next to nothing in return. Teams would give a lot for 2 months and a playoff cycle of Lester. They would give even more if we allowed them to negotiate an extension. Either way, a trade would bring us more than the value of an extra draft pick.


    Uehara: Koji will be 40 on opening day 2015. I'm not usually one to use small sample sizes to judge players, but one has to wonder if he is has started to or is due for an age-related decline in performance level. I definitely want Koji back next year, but unless we are fairly certain he will be back, we need to trade him as well. There are many contending teams out there that might think he is the guy to put them into the driver's seat. We could get a very nice prospect for Koji.


    Peavy: I'm not sure what offers might be out there for Jake, but I'm pretty sure that if we paid a good chunk of what he is still owed (about 3 to 4 of $5M), we could get a prospect with some promise in return. Let's roll the dice and hope what we get back turns out to help us going forward, if not, at least some young starting pitcher in our system will get a chance to show what he's got in the bigs for a couple months.


    Drew: Doubtful anyone wants him, but offer to pay a good chunk of his deal and see if there is a taker.


    Pierzynski: Doubtful anyone wants him, but offer to pay a good chunk of his deal and see if there is a taker.


    Gomes: Jonny has very good numbers vs LHPs this year and over the last 5 or 6 years. Some team out there is in need of a platoon OF'er with reportedly good clubhouse karma. Get what we can and trade him for the best offer. Let Holt, Betts, JBJ and maybe even Cecchini, Hassan or others get some (more) ML PAs for a couple months.


    Ross: Doubtful anyone wants him, but offer to pay a good chunk of his deal and see if there is a taker. (If we trade AJ P, we may want to keep Ross to mentor Vazquez or Butler.)


    Badenhop: Burke is on pace for one of his best seasons. He's right up there in IP among RP'ers and has good trade value. Get what we can for him.


    Miller: There are a few teams with a big need for a LH'd Rp'er. Miller has been one of the best for a 2 year period. We can get something good for him. Do it.


     


    Free Agents after 2015: Napoli, Victorino, Mujica


    Options: 


    Ortiz $10M for 2016 and 2017 with bonuses


    Buchholz has an option for 2016 $13M ($245K buyout) & 2017 $13.5M ($500K buyout)


    I hate to say it, but it is "firesale" time. We have 10 players who will be free agents unless we extend them. I seriously doubt we can trade even 8 of them, even if we try, but we should do our best to deal all the ones who won't be back next year.


     


    Sox4ever

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part III

    Link to Part II

    http://www.boston.com/community/forums/sports/red-sox/on-the-front-burner/a-realistic-view-at-2014-part-ii/100/7045041

    Sox4ever

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part III

    Rays are open to trading Price within the division. If we could get him to extend, I'd kick the tires here.

     

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/07/rays-open-to-trading-david-price-within-division.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/07/rays-open-to-trading-david-price-within-division.html

     

     

    Sox4ever

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:



    I am pretty sure the Rays will ask for the moon in return for a Price trade within the division. Worth looking into, but the truth is its very very unlikely to happen.

    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:



    Price would probably want at least 6/150 to extend.  I think I'd rather give Lester the 5/120.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from billge. Show billge's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part III

    Agree

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part III

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:



    I am pretty sure the Rays will ask for the moon in return for a Price trade within the division. Worth looking into, but the truth is its very very unlikely to happen.

    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE

     




    Better to just sign him rather than trade the moon and stars and then have to sign him.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part III

    Price would probably want at least 6/150 to extend. I think I'd rather give Lester the 5/120.

    Price is a couple years younger, but does not have the proven post season record Lester has.

    Sox4ever

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:



    I am pretty sure the Rays will ask for the moon in return for a Price trade within the division. Worth looking into, but the truth is its very very unlikely to happen.

    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE

     




    Better to just sign him rather than trade the moon and stars and then have to sign him.



    We won't likely get the chance to sign him. The Rays, if they are smart, will trade him for prospects once they find a team that can sign him long term. That team probably won't be in the ALE.

    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part III

    Lester trumps Price. De La Rosa can be a great SP if the Sox give him a real opportunity.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part III

    I'm not against fire sales. This team is probably the only one that it's justified. But who would want some of these Sox? Other than the pitchers? Peavy, Lackey, Lester are the real sale items. Uehara I'd sign for 2 to 3 years. Lester I would give him the bank that CC and AGON got.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part III

    The players with the most trade value for REAL MLB TALENT IN RETURN....are the guys no one wants to see leave...Pedroia and Lester. Pretty much everyone else won't get you MLB true talent. Unless you mix in the minor league talent as well and cash. 

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part III

    We can get a prospect for Gomes. Gomes is killing LHPs again..

    If we pay a good chunk of Peavy's deal, we could get a promising mid level prospect

    We can get a nice prospect for Badenhop.

    We can get a very nice prospect for Miller.

    I doubt we can get anything for Drew, AJP, or Ross, but I'd try for anything- if only to make room for some kids to play in the bigs.

    I'd want to know if we are close to getting Lester and Uehara to come back, and if not, they'd both bring us some top prospects we can keep or use this winter to trade for a megastar(s) under team control for many years.

    Sox4ever

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part III

    We won't likely get the chance to sign him. The Rays, if they are smart, will trade him for prospects once they find a team that can sign him long term. That team probably won't be in the ALE.

    Price has to agree to extend.

    He may: he may not.

    If not, I'd make a nice offer to him and Lester.

    Sox4ever

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part III

    Prospects are interesting. You got Holt, and how good is he? Xander may not be or may be a MLB talent? Middlebrooks? De La Rosa and Webster seem to be guys who could be legit MLB pitchers. Bradley Jr could be the real deal? Betts? I don't know, I get back to wanting MLB talent. The Sox won in 2013 with what? Mostly veteran players...Xander and Middlebrooks and I guess Workman were the only relatively young guys who performed to win the title....Everyone else veterans. Prospects are prospects, so many don't pan out.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part III

    In response to dannycater's comment:

    Prospects are interesting. You got Holt, and how good is he? Xander may not be or may be a MLB talent? Middlebrooks? De La Rosa and Webster seem to be guys who could be legit MLB pitchers. Bradley Jr could be the real deal? Betts? I don't know, I get back to wanting MLB talent. The Sox won in 2013 with what? Mostly veteran players...Xander and Middlebrooks and I guess Workman were the only relatively young guys who performed to win the title....Everyone else veterans. Prospects are prospects, so many don't pan out.



    I don't disagree with anything here, but trying copy a formula that wins one year does not usually work out.

    We are going to need some young players next year to play some key roles, but I agree that we should minimize the number as well as have some vets able to take over if the falter.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part III

    In response to dannycater's comment:

    Lester trumps Price. De La Rosa can be a great SP if the Sox give him a real opportunity.



    And if he can find a third pitch thats MLB ready. He throws mostly FB and Change, with a very rare slider. If he doesnt have at least an average third pitch, hes probably bullpen bound.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part III

    While I doubt we see that many trades, i believe we will see a lot of action with the Sox.

    Lester- NEEDS to be signed. Open the checkbook, hes earned it.

    Koji- trade bait 

    Gomes- trade bait

    if they dont see Holt as a part of the future on a FT basis, then trade him while his value is sky high.

    Peavy and Lackey- trade if you can. Lackey could be moved if the new team is willing to extend him. Maybe a team like the Halos? Peavy will be tough to move without a big return, but something is better than nothing

    AJP- i still think there could be a team in need of a vet catcher for a playoff run. No big return , but maybe a mid prospect depending on thebteam and its needs.

    there are also a few kids id throw into a trade as well.

    i think we might see a couple moves, but nothing huge until the offseason.

    oh. And please trade Drew no matter what. Xander needs to go back to where hes comfortable. He was looking better at SS before the signing, but now looks terrible at 3b. The experiment is over! Hes NOT a 3baseman. SS or he might end up in LF, but hes way to slow for 3b IMHO. 

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to dannycater's comment:

    Prospects are interesting. You got Holt, and how good is he? Xander may not be or may be a MLB talent? Middlebrooks? De La Rosa and Webster seem to be guys who could be legit MLB pitchers. Bradley Jr could be the real deal? Betts? I don't know, I get back to wanting MLB talent. The Sox won in 2013 with what? Mostly veteran players...Xander and Middlebrooks and I guess Workman were the only relatively young guys who performed to win the title....Everyone else veterans. Prospects are prospects, so many don't pan out.



    I don't disagree with anything here, but trying copy a formula that wins one year does not usually work out.

    We are going to need some young players next year to play some key roles, but I agree that we should minimize the number as well as have some vets able to take over if the falter.



    I think the Sox have already established the youth movement with Bradley and Holt and Xander. So again, and not to take anything away from adding prospects during a sale, 3 could be already in the mix for '15 (Middlebrooks still a possibility, and the catchers?), we want to add more Betts types, more Lavarnways, more guys who we have no idea will produce or be career minor leaguers? Moon, I get it, trust me, I do. We got young pitchers in De La Rosa, Webster, and Renaudo....how much is too much Prospects?? I've never seen a Sox team with less MLB veteran talent, not veterans...I mean MLB-caliber talent. Two different things. 

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part III

    I'm starting to wonder what really is going on in the scouting process. The Sox have not done well in drafting any power/RBI guys. Maybe it's rampant in all of MLB, too, but it certainly seems to be that way.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part III

    In response to dannycater's comment:


    I'm starting to wonder what really is going on in the scouting process. The Sox have not done well in drafting any power/RBI guys. Maybe it's rampant in all of MLB, too, but it certainly seems to be that way.




    There is a huge power outage all over baseball, it's not just a Sox thing.  Partially due to the steroid era being over, and teams focusing more on developing pitchers over the years.


    In reality, if everyone else doesn't have a ton of power hitters either you don't need it as much.  20 HR's is the new 30.  The Sox have a lot of guys in their system with decent pop who could all be 15-20 guys.  We might not have power, but we have up the middle depth, more pitching depth than any team, and we have who has been recently crowned by BA as the "best catching prospect in the minors" 


    The Sox have taking some power guys over the years, but as we all know, some guys pan out and some don't and it seems that Power guys don't pan out more often.  Power means nothing if you can't hit and the Sox have focused on guys who have tremendous hit tools (a strategy I'm all for), but some of the guys they have (who are very far away and could still bust) are looking pretty good. 

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part III

    I think the Sox have already established the youth movement with Bradley and Holt and Xander. So again, and not to take anything away from adding prospects during a sale, 3 could be already in the mix for '15 (Middlebrooks still a possibility, and the catchers?), we want to add more Betts types, more Lavarnways, more guys who we have no idea will produce or be career minor leaguers? Moon, I get it, trust me, I do. We got young pitchers in De La Rosa, Webster, and Renaudo....how much is too much Prospects?? I've never seen a Sox team with less MLB veteran talent, not veterans...I mean MLB-caliber talent. Two different things.


    I see the exact opposite- too much MLB-caliber talent, but not enough top quality MLB-caliber talent. Quantity over quality. Many of our prospects would be playing in MLb today, if they were on other teams.


    We are loaded with platoon type players. We are loaded with players who have one good skill but major flaws elswhere, which makes them MLb talent, but not everyday solid FT players.


    Nava stinks vs LHPs and can't field any position well.


    Gomes stinks vs RHPs and can't field either.


    JBJ can field better than anyone in MLB, but can't hit.


    Vic can do both, but can't stay healthy.


    Betts, Cecchini and Bogey show a lot of offensive promise, but can't seem to field a position well enough to count on a long term one position player.


    Holt could be a flash-in-the-pan, but looks like at worst, he could be a great all over the place utility player.


    Herrera, Carp, Middy and others are MLB caliber players, but barely so.


    Vazquez is probably ML ready now, but instead we are going with two old stiffs.


    Swihart, Marrero, and some other positional prospects could be ML ready next year, but we shouldn't count on any of them to fill a valuable 2015 slot on the 25 man roster.


    As for pitching, I love our prospects, but we aren't even sure if de la Rosa and Workman are for real yet, but I see posters here saying we can get rid of Lester and Lackey and count on these guys to take up the slack. The way I see it, with the state of Buch's health in perpetual limbo, we need Lester and Lackey back next year to have a chance, or at least we need to replace them with veteran solid pitchers over the winter. I'd hope we can have 2 great vets in the 1-2 slot, and then counting on all the SP'ers to fill in the next 3 slots might still be hoping for too much, but if we improve in other areas, maybe we can get by, in 2015, with these guys filling the 3-4-5 slots:


    Buccholz, de la Rosa, Workman, Ranaudo, Webster, Barnes and maybe Owens


    (I'd still rather have 5 better SP'ers to choose from rather than the 8 marginal, unproven, or flawed SP'ers listed above.)


    The pen will take a hit losing Uehara, Miller and Badenhop, but hopefully we can extend Uehara and fill in the other slots with a mid level FA signing and some prospects.


    We need to think about making some 3 or 4 for 1 deals and move from quantity over quality to a more balanced team and farm of quality & quantity.


    Easy to say not do, but we have the resources both in money and prospects to improve the quality this winter without sacrificing too much of the quantity.


     


    Sox4ever

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part III

    Maybe I should have been more specific, I did mean MLB "Quality" Talent. But the type of MLB "talent" is questionable as to the players mentioned. 

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from seannybboi. Show seannybboi's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part III

    Rays will ask for Bogaerts for Price even though they are not getting Bogaerts.  They will at least want our 3 top prospects Betts, Ownes, and Swihart.  I can't see Ben giving them up for 1.5 yrs of Price and even if we extend Price, it will cost at least $150M.  Price is still young and has been an ace in the most tough division.  

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part III

    If the Sox traded Xander and got back a quality big league player...I'd do it yesterday.

     
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