A Realsitic View at 2015: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: A Realsitic View at 2015: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    My top 15:

    1) Owens

    2) Ranaudo

    3) Rodriguez

    4) Barnes

    5) Hembree

    6) Johnson

    7) Escobar

    8) L Diaz

    9) T Ball

    10) Kopech

     

    Sox4ever

    [/QUOTE]

    Ur ranking seems about right.

    I have 3 of our recent acquisitions in my top 7.  

    Add those to the Kelly pick up and our long term future pitching staff looks a lot better than before (assuming what happens with Lester would have happened anyway).

    de la Rosa is looking like a solid starter... maybe a good 3 or 4 slot starter next year.

    Webster is still questionable, but I think he's done better than many here feel.

    Acquiring an ace would go a long way towards making our staff formidable next year. Getting an ace and a solid #2 would put us up near the top in MLB rotations and SP depth, assuming we don't trade 3 pitchers for one.

     

    Sox4ever

    [/QUOTE]

    With respect to the SP, that's a big if ... if we could add Ruth and Gehrig in their  prime, NYY could have a good offense

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realsitic View at 2015: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    My top 15:

    1) Owens

    2) Ranaudo

    3) Rodriguez

    4) Barnes

    5) Hembree

    6) Johnson

    7) Escobar

    8) L Diaz

    9) T Ball

    10) Kopech

     

    Sox4ever

    [/QUOTE]

    Ur ranking seems about right.

    I have 3 of our recent acquisitions in my top 7.  

    Add those to the Kelly pick up and our long term future pitching staff looks a lot better than before (assuming what happens with Lester would have happened anyway).

    de la Rosa is looking like a solid starter... maybe a good 3 or 4 slot starter next year.

    Webster is still questionable, but I think he's done better than many here feel.

    Acquiring an ace would go a long way towards making our staff formidable next year. Getting an ace and a solid #2 would put us up near the top in MLB rotations and SP depth, assuming we don't trade 3 pitchers for one.

     

    Sox4ever

    [/QUOTE]


    I have faith in Ranaudo and RDLR...Im with you ton Webster. Still not there, but has shown improvement. I cant get mad when an 18th rd pick (Webster) does this well so far. Let him get his starts this year and see how he come out of the gates in 2015. No question hes looked better.

    Im starting to lose faith in Workman. Like Webster, needs to be more consistent. He looks shaky the 2nd and 3rd time through a lineup. Johnson has made a name for himself this year. Took longer than expected due to getting a line drive to his melon, but hes performing now like they though he could.

    I expect at least one Ace type pitcher via FA and/or trade. I want Lester back and they BETTER make at least a 6/150 offer. Sorry guys, thats the going rate nowadays. Im all in if they do it.

    Pitching shouldnt be a big problem for this team going forward.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realsitic View at 2015: Part I

    With respect to the SP, that's a big if ... if we could add Ruth and Gehrig in their prime, NYY could have a good offense

    Yes, but with $60M to spend and a boatload of good prospects to offer in trade, it is possible.

    Sox4ever

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realsitic View at 2015: Part I

    Looking to this winter and beyond, I find it hard to believe Allen Craig will be our back-up OF/1Bman. To me, there are 2 major choices:

    1) Craig is penciled in as out FT LF'er. Assuming Cespedes would then play RF, it would squeeze quite a few players looking for serious playing time in the OF: Vic, Nava, JBJ, Betts, Holt and others.

    2) Napoli is traded and Craig becomes the FT 1B and possibly future DH.

    To be honest, I'd rather have Napoli's bat in 2015, but with Craigs longer team control and much cheaper contract, I really think we may seriously look to deal Napoli. We could even eat some of his contractual costs, if a team like Pittsburgh was looking to make a serious run in 2015. Perhaps, we could get a very good prospect for Naps that would add to the stockpile of prospects we might then use to trade for a key player that fills one of our major two needs:

    1) An ace

    2) A super #3 or 4 hitter.

    This really has nothing to do with my feelings towards Napoli.  I really like Napoli and was for his signings. I do not think he is in decline and think he will have a good year next year- possibly his last big contract year. It has to do with his cost, short team control, and the logjam we have at 1B and LF.

    Trading Napoli could open the door for Betts or a Betts/Nava platoon, which could possibly come close to Napoli's numbers in 2015.

    Sox4ever

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realsitic View at 2015: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    With respect to the SP, that's a big if ... if we could add Ruth and Gehrig in their prime, NYY could have a good offense

    Yes, but with $60M to spend and a boatload of good prospects to offer in trade, it is possible.

    Sox4ever

    Since the All Star Break, the Red Sox rank 13th* in pitching WAR among American League teams.

    The Sox have major holes to fill after trading away pitchers Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jake Peavy, Felix Doubront and Andrew Miller. Ben Cherington was able to pull off some magic after depleting the club with the blockbuster trade in August 2012, but I question whether Cherington can find similar magic a second time.

    This Seattle fan makes this assessment at the risk of being called a troll. My apologies to anyone who is offended. I look forward to more meaningful discussions on this forum.

    * It's interesting that the Oakland Athletics rank 14th in pitching WAR since the All Star Game

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realsitic View at 2015: Part I

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    With respect to the SP, that's a big if ... if we could add Ruth and Gehrig in their prime, NYY could have a good offense

    Yes, but with $60M to spend and a boatload of good prospects to offer in trade, it is possible.

    Sox4ever

    Since the All Star Break, the Red Sox rank 13th* in pitching WAR among American League teams.

    The Sox have major holes to fill after trading away pitchers Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jake Peavy, Felix Doubront and Andrew Miller. Ben Cherington was able to pull off some magic after depleting the club with the blockbuster trade in August 2012, but I question whether Cherington can find similar magic a second time.

    This Seattle fan makes this assessment at the risk of being called a troll. My apologies to anyone who is offended. I look forward to more meaningful discussions on this forum.

    * It's interesting that the Oakland Athletics rank 14th in pitching WAR since the All Star Game

    [/QUOTE]

    Trolls post to incite; you post to discuss. You are no troll.

    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from kimsaysthis. Show kimsaysthis's posts

    Re: A Realsitic View at 2015: Part I

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    With respect to the SP, that's a big if ... if we could add Ruth and Gehrig in their prime, NYY could have a good offense

    Yes, but with $60M to spend and a boatload of good prospects to offer in trade, it is possible.

    Sox4ever

    Since the All Star Break, the Red Sox rank 13th* in pitching WAR among American League teams.

    The Sox have major holes to fill after trading away pitchers Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jake Peavy, Felix Doubront and Andrew Miller. Ben Cherington was able to pull off some magic after depleting the club with the blockbuster trade in August 2012, but I question whether Cherington can find similar magic a second time.

    This Seattle fan makes this assessment at the risk of being called a troll. My apologies to anyone who is offended. I look forward to more meaningful discussions on this forum.

    * It's interesting that the Oakland Athletics rank 14th in pitching WAR since the All Star Game

    [/QUOTE]

    Trolls post to incite; you post to discuss. You are no troll.

    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Where does Bogey fall under those guidelines? Because it's really confusing to people who watch him go after posts/posters with insulting comments that the mods have said are just "humorous musings"?

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realsitic View at 2015: Part I

    In response to kimsaysthis' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Where does Bogey fall under those guidelines? Because it's really confusing to people who watch him go after posts/posters with insulting comments that the mods have said are just "humorous musings"?

    [/QUOTE]

    kim, there's a moderator thread for this type of post.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from kimsaysthis. Show kimsaysthis's posts

    Re: A Realsitic View at 2015: Part I

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to kimsaysthis' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Where does Bogey fall under those guidelines? Because it's really confusing to people who watch him go after posts/posters with insulting comments that the mods have said are just "humorous musings"?

    [/QUOTE]

    kim, there's a moderator thread for this type of post.

    [/QUOTE]


    Sorry, I was just responding to a moderator comment that was put here. I'm all about not ruining this thread with other discussions.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realsitic View at 2015: Part I

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    With respect to the SP, that's a big if ... if we could add Ruth and Gehrig in their prime, NYY could have a good offense

    Yes, but with $60M to spend and a boatload of good prospects to offer in trade, it is possible.

    Sox4ever

    Since the All Star Break, the Red Sox rank 13th* in pitching WAR among American League teams.

    The Sox have major holes to fill after trading away pitchers Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jake Peavy, Felix Doubront and Andrew Miller. Ben Cherington was able to pull off some magic after depleting the club with the blockbuster trade in August 2012, but I question whether Cherington can find similar magic a second time.

    This Seattle fan makes this assessment at the risk of being called a troll. My apologies to anyone who is offended. I look forward to more meaningful discussions on this forum.

    * It's interesting that the Oakland Athletics rank 14th in pitching WAR since the All Star Game

    [/QUOTE]
     

    My honest opinion, I think we've already filled the Peavy & Doubront roles W/ Kelly and RDLR, no? 

    [object HTMLDivElement]

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realsitic View at 2015: Part I

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    With respect to the SP, that's a big if ... if we could add Ruth and Gehrig in their prime, NYY could have a good offense

    Yes, but with $60M to spend and a boatload of good prospects to offer in trade, it is possible.

    Sox4ever

    Since the All Star Break, the Red Sox rank 13th* in pitching WAR among American League teams.

    The Sox have major holes to fill after trading away pitchers Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jake Peavy, Felix Doubront and Andrew Miller. Ben Cherington was able to pull off some magic after depleting the club with the blockbuster trade in August 2012, but I question whether Cherington can find similar magic a second time.

    This Seattle fan makes this assessment at the risk of being called a troll. My apologies to anyone who is offended. I look forward to more meaningful discussions on this forum.

    * It's interesting that the Oakland Athletics rank 14th in pitching WAR since the All Star Game

    [/QUOTE]


    I think Joe Kelly can and will be a solid #3 starter next year. Between Buch, de la Rosa, Webster, Ranaudo and other currently in the system, we can come up with a couple solid 4-5 guys. 

    I really think, if we get two top quality SP'ers this winter, out rotation will be plus.

    I realize that is easier said than done, and Ben might guess wrong. My point is that with $60M to spend and a ton of good prospects to offer in trade, we have the resources to make some bold moves and signings.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realsitic View at 2015: Part I

    There's an old saying " You can cut down more trees, if you take the time to sharpen your axe" ER... Something like that. That's how I'm viewing this season. We can sign two elite TOTR SP's. Got the $. The dirty work is crafting a strong 3-5 (&6) for long term w/ consistency & cost controlled. Peavy, Doubront, to some extent Lackey (and Miller) we're either expendable, gone anyway, or both. I think they're doing what they need to do to stay competitive long term, despite the pain that goes with it. This team can get real good, real quick. Of course, we'll have to wait a year. :/

     

    "Don't you worry about blank, let me worry about blank"

    or

    "Blank?.. blank?! But you're not seeing the big picture!"

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realsitic View at 2015: Part I

    I agree, emp, and if you look at the sheer number of good pitching prospects that are ML ready or near ML ready, even if you are a pessimist, it's hard to not imagine 2-4 of these kids not making a significant contribution next year:

    de la Rosa

    Ranaudo

    Webster

    Hembree

    Workman

    Owens

    Barnes

    Johnson

    Escobar

    Wright

    Rodriguez

    Britton

    A Wilson

    Hinojosa

    Sox4ever

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realsitic View at 2015: Part I

    For what it's worth, the Oliver WAR projections through 2018 have Joe Kelly and Rubby de la Rosa consistently in the 0.1 to 0.2 range over the next four seasons. Of Anthony Ranaudo, Matt Barnes, Brandon Workman and Allen Webster, ony Barnes is projected to have a season of at least 1 WAR and Barnes tops out at 1.3 WAR.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from mellymel3. Show mellymel3's posts

    Re: A Realsitic View at 2015: Part I

    Some of you dudes need to open a window shade and a window, breath some fresh air, get some sunshine and be a part of the world. The RS season  was over before it started...it's OK...the war is over, we lost, surrender and enjoy life again...

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realsitic View at 2015: Part I

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    For what it's worth, the Oliver WAR projections through 2018 have Joe Kelly and Rubby de la Rosa consistently in the 0.1 to 0.2 range over the next four seasons. Of Anthony Ranaudo, Matt Barnes, Brandon Workman and Allen Webster, ony Barnes is projected to have a season of at least 1 WAR and Barnes tops out at 1.3 WAR.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P

    [/QUOTE]


    I'm sure some will come out below projections, but my point is that at least a couple will come out above projections. There's just too many of them to not have 2 turn out well.

    It may not be Barnes. It may not be de la Rosa.

    It could end up being Escobar and Rodriguez. Even guys not listed, like Luis Diaz may rise quickly and surprise those who make these projections.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realsitic View at 2015: Part I

    In response to mellymel3's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Some of you dudes need to open a window shade and a window, breath some fresh air, get some sunshine and be a part of the world. The RS season  was over before it started...it's OK...the war is over, we lost, surrender and enjoy life again...

    [/QUOTE]

    Yeah, the thread says 2015...try and keep up killah...

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realsitic View at 2015: Part I

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    For what it's worth, the Oliver WAR projections through 2018 have Joe Kelly and Rubby de la Rosa consistently in the 0.1 to 0.2 range over the next four seasons. Of Anthony Ranaudo, Matt Barnes, Brandon Workman and Allen Webster, ony Barnes is projected to have a season of at least 1 WAR and Barnes tops out at 1.3 WAR.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P

    [/QUOTE]

    Not bad for #4-5 SP...what does it say about Lester and Shields, both of whom will be playing for the Red Sox next season? 

    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realsitic View at 2015: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:


    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    For what it's worth, the Oliver WAR projections through 2018 have Joe Kelly and Rubby de la Rosa consistently in the 0.1 to 0.2 range over the next four seasons. Of Anthony Ranaudo, Matt Barnes, Brandon Workman and Allen Webster, ony Barnes is projected to have a season of at least 1 WAR and Barnes tops out at 1.3 WAR.


    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P





    I'm sure some will come out below projections, but my point is that at least a couple will come out above projections. There's just too many of them to not have 2 turn out well.


    It may not be Barnes. It may not be de la Rosa.


    It could end up being Escobar and Rodriguez. Even guys not listed, like Luis Diaz may rise quickly and surprise those who make these projections.


    [/QUOTE]

    Exactly.  They are called projections....not crystal ball readings.  People try to project what someone will become based on raw talent, makeup, stats, and scouting but no one truly knows what these kids will become because no one can see into the future.  We've been labeled the Organization with the most pitching depth in the farm for a year now and even Yesterday in a BA chat the same tag was thrown on the Boston organization.  Some are going to flop, but it's very plausible and likely that some are going to stick. 


    The important thing is to realize that not every guy who looks good in a couple stints is going to be an ace, just as the guy who struggles early isn't going to to always bust either.  Sometimes the projections are spot on as well.  So many people thought Brock Holt was going to be an allstar position player earlier in the year, but he's looking more and more like the highly capable, versatile utility projection that was slapped on him for a long time.  Workman was labeled a back of the rotation starter or a bullpen arm but many thought he was going to be a #2 starter last year when he looked good in a few starts. 


    Still the one thing that seems to be missing from our system despite the plethora of pitching talent is a true ace caliber front of the rotation starter.  But if 2-3 of these kids can round out the rotation for the next several years then it becomes insanely easy to go out and buy a Lester and a Scherzer. 

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realsitic View at 2015: Part I

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    For what it's worth, the Oliver WAR projections through 2018 have Joe Kelly and Rubby de la Rosa consistently in the 0.1 to 0.2 range over the next four seasons. Of Anthony Ranaudo, Matt Barnes, Brandon Workman and Allen Webster, ony Barnes is projected to have a season of at least 1 WAR and Barnes tops out at 1.3 WAR.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P

    [/QUOTE]

    I'm sure some will come out below projections, but my point is that at least a couple will come out above projections. There's just too many of them to not have 2 turn out well.

    It may not be Barnes. It may not be de la Rosa.

    It could end up being Escobar and Rodriguez. Even guys not listed, like Luis Diaz may rise quickly and surprise those who make these projections.

    [/QUOTE]

    Exactly.  They are called projections....not crystal ball readings.  People try to project what someone will become based on raw talent, makeup, stats, and scouting but no one truly knows what these kids will become because no one can see into the future.  We've been labeled the Organization with the most pitching depth in the farm for a year now and even Yesterday in a BA chat the same tag was thrown on the Boston organization.  Some are going to flop, but it's very plausible and likely that some are going to stick. 

    The important thing is to realize that not every guy who looks good in a couple stints is going to be an ace, just as the guy who struggles early isn't going to to always bust either.  Sometimes the projections are spot on as well.  So many people thought Brock Holt was going to be an allstar position player earlier in the year, but he's looking more and more like the highly capable, versatile utility projection that was slapped on him for a long time.  Workman was labeled a back of the rotation starter or a bullpen arm but many thought he was going to be a #2 starter last year when he looked good in a few starts. 

    Still the one thing that seems to be missing from our system despite the plethora of pitching talent is a true ace caliber front of the rotation starter.  But if 2-3 of these kids can round out the rotation for the next several years then it becomes insanely easy to go out and buy a Lester and a Scherzer. 

    [/QUOTE]

    It's part of the game but I think ranking prospects is about as accurate as Webster's control at the moment.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realsitic View at 2015: Part I

    The one guy I'm starting to just give up on is Webster. Which is really too bad as he does have the stuff to be good. I think i'd just park him in AAA until he shows he can command his fastball. He will at some point run out of options though. We cannot count on him at all at this point.

    Everyone thinks Owens is a potential animal. I think Johnson has a great floor and has pitched himself into the conversation for sure. I still like Barnes a lot and think he has a good chance of being a stud. I've been too busy to study Rodriguez but when a starting level guy like that gets traded for a reliever rental it generally worries me. And Kelly could be a real find with Craig being the boat anchor on that deal. But St. Louis knows what they are doing. Ranaudo has been projected as a number 5 for years now. A #5 at best. 

    I don't think we can count on any of these guys. Any of our current options as starting level pitchers in the majors, but the shear numbers we have available means we can probably bob and weave to cobble together a good rotation. Whether or not that is playoff caliber is a whole different question. We are gambling that some of these guys will develop a good cutter or change up or something to give them the ability to be a #2 or 3. And with the numbers we have that is probably a good gamble. I just don't see it paying off in 2015.

    Let's face the truth. We basically know the Sox are going to either trade for a top guy like Hamels or bite the bullet and sign a stud like Lester, Shields or Scherzer. NWIH they are going into next year with this starting rotation.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realsitic View at 2015: Part I

    To me, Workman has always been a solid pen option. A real workhorse guy. But I could also see him used as a starter in a smaller market. He is built like a tank and would be a good value for a lot of teams. Unlikely to get hurt. Able to give #4 or 5 level performance in a lot of markets. He'd probably be a #2 or 3 in San Diego.

    Trade him or make him a 7th inning guy.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realsitic View at 2015: Part I

    Just back from visiting family in North Carolina and got caught up on this new thread. Good, civil comments throughout; that is nice. Like all of you my interest has waned this season with the terrible on-field performance, but I have seen some things I like. The pluses, in no particular order, are Holt's emergence as an offensive force, Vasquez showing what a solid defensive catcher looks like and Betts zooming through the system. 

    My biggest disappointments (aside from losing Lester) have been Bradley Jr., Middlebrooks and Bogey. But it is far too early to give up on any of these guys. I do believe that the steroid era helped place offensive expectations at unreachable levels for some of these young guys. Paul Blair anchored a championship outfield for years with offensive production similar to JBJ's early career learning curve. Very good players like Dwight Evans and Brooks Robinson struggled offensively for several seasons before hitting their star-quality stride. The Bradley/Blair comp is probably pretty realistic, and I'm not comparing WMB and Bogey directly to Evans or Brooks. But when you go into a MLB season with essentially three rookies in starting roles you have to expect some bumps in the road. And the team did nothing to boost any of the three's confidence by bouncing them around, or back and forth to AAA, or by signing Castillo to a $70mil deal.

    My thoughts on Lester are that the Front Office went a long way towards dooming the 2014 edition Red Sox when they low-balled him in ST. I think the attitude in the clubhouse was never the same as last season and the players were questioning their own Front Office's commitment to building the best team possible.

    But since this thread is about 2015, here's what I would like to see...

    C Vasquez (Ross/??), 1b Napoli, 2b Pedroia (Holt), ss Betts (Holt), 3b Bogaerts (Holt), lf Castillo, cf Bradley Jr., rf Cespedes (of depth of Holt, Hassan, ??), dh Ortiz. I would prefer a cost-controlled Nava to back up Napoli and the outfield corners over Craig who doesn't impress me at all. Craig, Webster and Barnes would all be trade chips for whatever return we could get. I want a rotation of Lester, Buchholz, Kelly, De La Rosa and Ranaudo, but I would also like to see a deal (trade or free agency) for someone to put in between Lester and Buch. My pen would have Koji, Tazawa, I'd resign Miller, Wilson, Mujica, Badenhop, Workman and a free-agent lefty. We may have another few months of growing pains but we'd still have money to spend and prospects to deal to solidify the roster.                                                                                                                                        

     

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from tcal2-. Show tcal2-'s posts

    Re: A Realsitic View at 2015: Part I

    I know I'm jumping on this late but great info moon, thanks.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realsitic View at 2015: Part I

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    For what it's worth, the Oliver WAR projections through 2018 have Joe Kelly and Rubby de la Rosa consistently in the 0.1 to 0.2 range over the next four seasons. Of Anthony Ranaudo, Matt Barnes, Brandon Workman and Allen Webster, ony Barnes is projected to have a season of at least 1 WAR and Barnes tops out at 1.3 WAR.

     

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526376&position=P

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I'm sure some will come out below projections, but my point is that at least a couple will come out above projections. There's just too many of them to not have 2 turn out well.

     

     

    It may not be Barnes. It may not be de la Rosa.

     

    It could end up being Escobar and Rodriguez. Even guys not listed, like Luis Diaz may rise quickly and surprise those who make these projections.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Exactly.  They are called projections....not crystal ball readings.  People try to project what someone will become based on raw talent, makeup, stats, and scouting but no one truly knows what these kids will become because no one can see into the future.  We've been labeled the Organization with the most pitching depth in the farm for a year now and even Yesterday in a BA chat the same tag was thrown on the Boston organization.  Some are going to flop, but it's very plausible and likely that some are going to stick. 

     

    The important thing is to realize that not every guy who looks good in a couple stints is going to be an ace, just as the guy who struggles early isn't going to to always bust either.  Sometimes the projections are spot on as well.  So many people thought Brock Holt was going to be an allstar position player earlier in the year, but he's looking more and more like the highly capable, versatile utility projection that was slapped on him for a long time.  Workman was labeled a back of the rotation starter or a bullpen arm but many thought he was going to be a #2 starter last year when he looked good in a few starts. 

     

    Still the one thing that seems to be missing from our system despite the plethora of pitching talent is a true ace caliber front of the rotation starter.  But if 2-3 of these kids can round out the rotation for the next several years then it becomes insanely easy to go out and buy a Lester and a Scherzer. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Not a #2, but you cld definitely include me in that group who thought Workman cld make the rotation. Showed much more composure than Webster and had a number of QS right out the gate. But you are right, I stand corrected. The BP looks like his destination. 

    We need a titled " They are who we thought they were!" Thread sometime late next year. Mainly because that quote still makes me chuckle and to keep track of all these prospects that continue to see the light of day.

    In no particular order, the rotation is looking like Buck, Kelly,RDLR, & Ranuado, plus a FA signing for next season. Sox are moving to a 6 man rotation for the remainder and w/ the roster expansion, we might catch a glimpse or two on a few more prospects. Does anyone have any inclination on who we might see? 


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