http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2012/12/13/caution-flag-napoli-offers-red-sox-early-warni

It would have taken courage and caused friction with sponsors, fans, and radio/tv networks, and a well run PR sell would've been needed to placate the fans.  Lowering ticket prices a lot would have been a good start as a rebuild would've saved Henry a fortune, but few would've cared if it meant a stronger future with always popular homegrown talent.   A majority of fans , would have accepted the move rather than what we have, a $150M+ mediocre club. 

Health questions abound.

As Speier points out, the Napoli physical debacle is an early warning sign of the problem with the 2013 Sox.  Only two palyers played ove 140 games last year and Pedroia was foolish to play hurt.  It would be wonderful if health and form returned but expecting it is foolish.  The new CBA rules have ended the Sox old paradigm and accepting rebuilding cycles is the way forward.

Age (2012 games played)

DH: David Ortiz (36, 90)

C: Jarrod Saltalamacchia (27, 121)

1B: Mike Napoli* (30, 108)

2B: Dustin Pedroia (28, 141)

3B: Will Middlebrooks (23, 99)

SS: Jose Iglesias (22, 115)

LF: Jonny Gomes (31, 99)

CF: Jacoby Ellsbury (28, 82)

RF: Shane Victorino (31, 154)

BENCH

C: David Ross (35, 62)

UT: Pedro Ciriaco (26, 130)

OF: Ryan Kalish (24, 69)

Hey dude Napoli has a very high .ops !!!!! 

Now please reprint Speier's column from December 14, where he explains the Red Sox offseason strategy.  Make sure you're objective and give us the whole story here tom LOL

i still had the best plan for the offseason....get one high price star, one middle tier guy and resign ortiz and ross....instead we went hogwild with the paycheck at the flea market

In response to georom4's comment:

Nah, your plan was even worse, geo...Greinke for 147 million plus Ross for say 25 million...that's 172 million, not even counting your middle tier guy.  Napoli (assuming he signs), Victorino, Dempster, Gomes and Ross are a total of about 121 million which is 51 million less.  With Greinke and Ross we'd still be mediocre, we'd still have a bunch of holes to fill, and if Greinke can't cut it in the AL East we're much, much worse off.

In response to tom-uk's comment:

Lets take a quick look at a potential youth/ platoon players batting line up for the Sox:

Bradley Jr. CF

Nava LF

Ciriaco 2B

Gomez 1B

Lavarnway DH

Kalish RF

Iggy SS

Boagaert 3B

Butler C

other fill Sands, Brentz, Hassan

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You can't go with an all-youth team, especially in Boston where people have such little patience.  The youth need veterans to lean on and learn from.  An all-youth team could be a disaster.

OK Hfx here is my take on 14th article.

THE SOX ARE BETTING THAT THEIR CORE STILL IS VERY GOOD AND MERELY NEEDS THE RIGHT COMPLEMENTARY PIECES IN 2013

(((((  I'd say it is a bet not worth making)))))))

 

 

Still, if healthy, Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Ortiz and Will Middlebrooks give the team four players capable of delivering considerable impact. Pedroia’s been an MVP, both Ortiz and Ellsbury have been runners-up in MVP voting and Middlebrooks showed All-Star, middle-of-the-order potential in his rookie season.  That’s a formidable quartet, if healthy. 

(((((((( If is the operative word))))))))))))))))))

 

That’s a considerable if, given that all four missed significant time in 2012 due to injury. Even so, the likelihood that all four will simultaneously be lost at the same time again is remote, particularly given that the injuries suffered by Ellsbury, Middlebrooks and Pedroia were of the traumatic rather than chronic variety.

(((((((( fair point, but would you bet Ells and Ped play 155 games))))))))))

 

If the Sox can complement those four players with a series of players capable of delivering average to above-average offense, then the team has the potential to have one of the top offenses in theAmerican League.

(((((((( While Victorino and Napoli are likely to be at least average, I don't want average players during their decline phases on the Sox.  I worry the poor 2012s of SV and MN portend a future like other good players in their 20s who age poorly (see V. Wells, and J.Bay).   Why didn't the Phillies or Texas lock them up?))))))))))

The rotation is a bit more of a question mark. Still, while Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz suffered down years, the team is banking on a rebound for those two, continued improvement from what was a very promising debut year in the rotation for Felix Doubront and the hope that John Lackey and Ryan Dempster can offer a considerable upgrade over the deeply flawed back of the rotation from a year ago.

(((( Who would bet their own money that all the "if rebounds" and "hope" come together?)))))

The Sox are under no illusions that Dempster is a top-of-the-rotation savior. But after a year spent searching unsuccessfully for reliable innings, there’s a great deal to be said for a pitcher who’s averaged 199 innings a season for the last five years, with sub-4.00 ERAs in four of those years, and whose ERA in that span compares favorably to that of other pitchers (like Kyle Lohse, James Shields, Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson and Anibal Sanchez) available via trade or free agency this offseason.

(((( Adding an innings eater is welcome but I worry hoping Lester, Lackey, and Buch will live up to past glory is unlikely.  I hope I am wrong and baseball throws up great surprises, but I'd rather they traded Lester, Ells (take the Papi pick) and enjoy watch the prospects play hard.  The rise of a young team is more fun to watch than the slow fade of overpaid former stars, IMO)))) 

In a nutshell, we're going to sink or swim on the arms of Lester, Buchholz and Lackey.  I agree with that, but it's not a great revelation.  We do have some options.  We have some pitching prospects and we also have some money in reserve.

Cherington has gone with a patchwork strategy, no question.  But in the short term I think it was about as good as he could do. 

The Red Sox season IMO comes down to [1] thing. Does Lester/Buchholz/Lackey return to previous forms. If not it doesn't matter who they sign. RS will score runs, the big question is can they prevent them. While the defense looks pretty good [not sold on Salty @ C & Naps @1b] w/ Pedroia and Iglesias in the middle and Ells + Victorino will cover much ground in OF and hopefully Kalish playing alot of LF, and Wil covering much more ground than Youk @ 3rd the defense should be solid. The bullpen actually might be a strength for this team for a change. We are going to need 45+ wins from those 3 guys if RS are to contend, plus a next step from Doubront [just cut down on walks] and he'll vastly improve, and if Dempster can win 12-15 we be in running for playoff spot. But it all starts w/ the top 3. 

Fans screaming for the kids would be extremely disappointed if that was the plan, and cry for free agents.

 

I do not get why fans still think that the only way to get prospects on the team is to have 9 of them in the lineup at once.  The Sox have usually let them into the lineup as they proved themselves, and then if there is a veteran blocking them, the veteran is traded away/let go immediately. Think Crisp, Youkilis, etc.

 

The one and only time the Sox handed a rookie a starting job before the season was Pedroia, and almost NO ON on this board likes that idea.  "We need Loretta back to mentor him or in case he does not work out."

 

Well right now you have a bunch of short term guys who can be easily moved if the kids work out.  The problem is, no one really knows what they want beyond it being "somethng else"

In response to boborielly224's comment:

1. You are missing one big poing. Given that they signed all these guys, there's no room for any of them on the roster.

2. Please don't include Gomez and Nava. They aren't youthful and they aren't prospects

Damned if they do and damed if they don't.....

Bring up the kids and let them play and hope they do well but if they don't their confidence could be shot aka: Billy Rohr 1967 2 great games and out of MLB the next year confidence shot... Not all home grown talent is loved...many RS fans did not like Youk, many did not like Pedroia his first two months BTW many thought he was brought up too soon!!!!! Playing kids that do not have the confidence that succeeding in the minors brings are less than 50/50 at making it. Look Ubaldo J, great first half and mediocre since but that first half was the greatest pitcher in MLB and heralded as the next CY winner. Trout was great last year if he has a soph drop off will he still be the next Willie Mays at the AS break...it is a crap shoot for not ready kids.

A return to health... lumping all injuries into one bucket is wrong. A broken wrist, thumb, etc... will never happen to the same player. Saltys 121 games was because a catcher is platooned and nothing to do with injury. The only inury that concerns me long term is Ortiz. Achiles tendon can be very fickle.

Lowering prices is not happening there are many other costs above the player's salaries that still need to be paid.

The signings IMHO were made so that the kids have another year or two in some cases to be ready. When these kids are ready they will be able to trade some of these signings either in Aug or in the off season. Won't get a lot but they filled their need.

It will be an interesting season that is for sure,

"The signings IMHO were made so that the kids have another year or two in some cases to be ready. When these kids are ready they will be able to trade some of these signings either in Aug or in the off season"

Exactly. It's not as romantic as some of these loopy "total tebuild" things but that's clearly what management is trying to do. And to some extend it looks like they have done it. You can quibble with who they signed, sure. And you can quibble with the prices as long as you take into account they overpaid in order to ensure short term deals. 

The risk comes down to "the kids". If the kids are not very good, then this plan ends up being an extended exercise in mediocrity.....

In response to BostonTrollSpanker's comment:

But the team will also have a lot of money available to spend.

A total rebuild is pretty pointless.

1-You get rid of everyone, then you have to wait 3-4 to become good.

2-The model of the big market teams is all the same-don't become bad.  If you become bad, you kill your market.  See the NYMs as prime facie evidence.  They stink, so no one goes.  Since no one goes, they cannot afford to bring in or keep good players.  It is an endless cycle.

3-Big market teams don't need total rebuilds.  Total rebuilds are for small market teams with an $80M payroll.  They eventual wind up with a couple of big $ stars, not good enough to compete, with a minor league that is one step too far away.  So they ditch the two big stars.

We have $170M capacity.  We aren't using money that isn't there.  We're spending the money that the fans have already paid in.  I don't mind us staying below the cap, but if we don't sign Victorino, Dempster, etc., then the money goes into Henry's pockets.  I see no reason for that.

relying on the kids is foolishness...there is no such thing as a sure thing in mlb - just ask billy beane.....and our main problem seems to be starting pitching...just who are the great pitching prospects that are going to step up and be the aces/stoppers that we have sorely lacked the past few years?

i cant stand these built in excuses for ben's signings....this isnt a holding strategy for the future...the future is now in 2013 and this is our team after its worse finish in 40 years...you are not raising children Ben - the future is now - as it is for every pro sports team anywhere....to say that he is making plans for 2016 is just bs....EVERY YEAR you are going to have turnover, injuries, trades, promotions and such....it is the GMs duty to field the best team every season....Ben it seems has failed again....

the good news is that he will be gone in 2013 and then we can get a real GM who isnt afraid to take chances on the best players

In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

The 1975 team.  Look at the ages on that team sometime and then re-read your post.

 

 

In response to notin's comment:

 

The great defender of any and all red sox moves has spoken.

In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

I just posted the same thing.  This isn't like the Astros trading their kids for Texeira in a futile attempt to strive for .500.  We're not losing any of our prospects.  All we're doing is spending the money that is already in the budget.

In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:

This is coming from the guy who knows how to do EVERYTHING better...

No not really. 

I only have one rule.  If you have two players of similar ability and on eof those players is 22 while ethe other is 31; play the 22 year old.

22 year old players get better and 31 year old players do not. 

I also think a team should have a plan in the off season - and not just a plan like "let's sign some slobs so the fans think we care.  The fans are dumb and we have plenty of apologists"

 

 

In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:

So you point is that we should promote 2 HOFers and 2 near-HOFs in a relatively short frame of time.

Oddly enough, as impractical as that idea is, how many times did we make the playoffs back then?  Once in 18 years?  Is that your grand plan?

Once in 18 years?

In response to Joebreidey's comment:

1.  The current Sox management would have left those players in the minors and signed scrubs.  Go look at the roster.  Try a google search.

 

2.  Also, you may want to look into the playoff format back in the "old days" before writiing foolish comments like "how many times did they make the playoffs"

There were TWO divisions and TWO playoff teams from the AL

Embarrassing that you didn't know that.

 

 

 

In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:

 

In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:

Funny story - the Sox agree with that plan more than I do. They are the team jettisoning guys like Crisp, Loretta, Youkilis to lettheir kisd play.

My thouights are = not every 22yo gets better, not every 31yo falls apart. EVERYTHING is case-by-case and no sweepeing generalities with regards to players.  Although the higher level stuff is prety much all sweeping generalities.)

 

Oh, and someday, learn to read my stuff more closely.  I have actually spent very little time defending Cherington. I have offered explainations, but explaining is NOT defending, and the only people who think it is are paranoid "with us or against us" types.  

I actually attack the posts by the whiny ones much more often.  There is a major difference...