Re: A total rebuild was the better long-term option
posted at 12/16/2012 2:12 PM EST
In response to tom-uk's comment:
1-Again, that all depends on your view of an 85-win season being the ceiling. Not everyone agrees with that.
(((( Of course, what does Vegas say? Joe, I wish I had your optimism, after 2010 you were optimistic about Buch's future. I disagreed b/c his peripherals were poor. I was right b/c I went with the numbers and you went with your eyes and memory in that case)))))
2-If we make the WC, it will be because Lester and Buchholz have returned to form. In that case, they can win the WS. And even if not, no one has an inside path to the WS.
((( Look at the top two starters of the other AL contenders, are any worse than the Sox? )))))))
3-We're not losing any picks by signing these guys. The future is exactly the same as it was.
((((( Victorino may have been signed to replace Ells))))))
4-Had we traded Ells and Lester, we'd basically be saying that we were going to shut down major league operations until 2015 at the earliest, and more likely not compete until 2016. With our financial strength, I see no need for that.
(((((( The other option is becoming the Mets North, IMO. The top players no longer make it to FA, most of the top FA have been busts b/c of age related decline, therefore Ben should have emptied the shelves for a brighter future just like the 2009 and 2010 and 2011 and 2012 Mets should have.)))))))))
1-I did not know Buchholz had congenital issue with his neck. He had a 3.48 in 2011, and had a 3.41 in 2012 in his last 20 starts, and Bill James has him forecast for a 3.68 this year.
2-Are any two worse? In the playoffs? If Lester returns to form, he is as good as anyone.
3-Not sure what you mean. Vic won't replace Ellsbury unless he is traded, or unless Bradley takes a step back. And if he replaces Ellsbury, doesn't that mean we're are obtaining picks, not losing them?
4-Not sure what you mean here either. The way I see it, these short-term signings are here so that we don't have to either trade the kids, or bring them up too soon.
Don't get me wrong, the heart of my philosophy has always been to develop the minor league system. But no minor league system can supply every position, and no minor league system pumps out x number of players each year.
The only thing that signing Victorino and Napoli and Dempster does is to ensure that we are competitive until the 4 Bs++ arrive. No one gets held back. No picks are lost. No prospects have been traded.
The only thing not signing these guys would've done is to put more money in Henry's pockets, and possibly drive down future revenues.