Adam Jones 6 Years in and 6 Years & 85.5M

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  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Adam Jones 6 Years in and 6 Years & 85.5M

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:

    Jones has average over 20 homers in those 6 years and has average over 30 homers in the last 2 years. His career OPS is .781. Career SLG .459

    Ellsbury's value is less than that, because large differences in pop and power trumps small differences in OBP and large differences in stolen bases. 

    The budget for Ellsbury should be no more than 5 years and 60M, which would be a mistake for the Red Sox but a good value for some of the NL teams.


    The six-year, $85.5 million contract for Adam Jones included the final arbitration year for the Baltimore outfielder. The salary will be about $77 million for the five years of what would have been free agency for Jones. 

    Going into Friday evening's game, the 30-year-old Ellsbury had been valued at 23.7 WAR* in 713 career games while the 28-year-old Jones had been valued at 16.8 WAR in 944 career games.

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs

     
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  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Adam Jones 6 Years in and 6 Years & 85.5M

    1-You need to differentiate between a FA contract and an extension.

    2-You need to learn the difference between a 6-contract, and a buyout of an arbitration year plus five more years.  Those are different values.

    3-You need to assess the risk value of signing of signing someone one year before necessary.  If a player is worth x if you sign him on 11/1/14, then he is worth less than x if you sign him on 11/1/13, because of the chance of injury.

    4-Having said that, I agree that Jones is a good comp.  Ellsbury has a higher OPS, more SBs, and is a better fielder, but Jones is younger.  The extension portion of Jones's contract is $75M/5, but with a 6-year risk profile.  Accounting for player inflation, that puts Ellsbury in line for ~ $100M/6.

    It seems a bit high, but he should get ~ $90M/6 is my guess.

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Kingface12. Show Kingface12's posts

    Re: Adam Jones 6 Years in and 6 Years & 85.5M

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    1-You need to differentiate between a FA contract and an extension.

    2-You need to learn the difference between a 6-contract, and a buyout of an arbitration year plus five more years.  Those are different values.

    3-You need to assess the risk value of signing of signing someone one year before necessary.  If a player is worth x if you sign him on 11/1/14, then he is worth less than x if you sign him on 11/1/13, because of the chance of injury.

    4-Having said that, I agree that Jones is a good comp.  Ellsbury has a higher OPS, more SBs, and is a better fielder, but Jones is younger.  The extension portion of Jones's contract is $75M/5, but with a 6-year risk profile.  Accounting for player inflation, that puts Ellsbury in line for ~ $100M/6.

    It seems a bit high, but he should get ~ $90M/6 is my guess.

     




    GASP!!!!!  Oh no!!!!!  What shall the Softfiremen do now that more facts are brought out??????  Let me guess....."the Sox have a high payroll!!!"

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Adam Jones 6 Years in and 6 Years & 85.5M

    In response to Kingface12's comment:

    In response to hill55's comment:

     

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:

     

    Jones has average over 20 homers in those 6 years and has average over 30 homers in the last 2 years. His career OPS is .781. Career SLG .459

     

     

    Ellsbury's value is less than that, because large differences in pop and power trumps small differences in OBP and large differences in stolen bases. 

    The budget for Ellsbury should be no more than 5 years and 60M, which would be a mistake for the Red Sox but a good value for some of the NL teams.

     


    The six-year, $85.5 million contract for Adam Jones included the final arbitration year for the Baltimore outfielder. The salary will be about $77 million for the five years of what would have been free agency for Jones. 

     

     

    Going into Friday evening's game, the 30-year-old Ellsbury had been valued at 23.7 WAR* in 713 career games while the 28-year-old Jones had been valued at 16.8 WAR in 944 career games.

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs

     




    Wait.......so let me got this straight......the Softfireman has been proved wrong by hard stats again?????  GASP!!!!!!

     

    oh wait......he/she's gotten EVERYTHING VERY WRONG  this year every time.......  wow.....s u cks to be him/her.........



    I thought it would've been obvious that Jones was never a FA.  He also signed when there were a ton of CF's on the market, further depressing his value.  Bad move by his agent, at least financially.  Maybe Jones isn't the greedy type, but given their profiles, my guess is that he'd have gotten at least 7 years at his age, and probably the same $16M+ that Ells will get.  The contract he signed takes him thru age 32, which is not a great time for an extension.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Adam Jones 6 Years in and 6 Years & 85.5M

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:

    Jones has average over 20 homers in those 6 years and has average over 30 homers in the last 2 years. His career OPS is .781. Career SLG .459

     

    Ellsbury's value is less than that, because large differences in pop and power trumps small differences in OBP and large differences in stolen bases. 

    The budget for Ellsbury should be no more than 5 years and 60M, which would be a mistake for the Red Sox but a good value for some of the NL teams.


    The six-year, $85.5 million contract for Adam Jones included the final arbitration year for the Baltimore outfielder. The salary will be about $77 million for the five years of what would have been free agency for Jones. 

     

    Going into Friday evening's game, the 30-year-old Ellsbury had been valued at 23.7 WAR* in 713 career games while the 28-year-old Jones had been valued at 16.8 WAR in 944 career games.

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs




    This is the hill I like.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from rameakap. Show rameakap's posts

    Re: Adam Jones 6 Years in and 6 Years & 85.5M


    hahahahahahahahaha

    what a loser Softy is, proven WRONG all the time his hateful act is so ignorant and pathetic

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc1944. Show MadMc1944's posts

    Re: Adam Jones 6 Years in and 6 Years & 85.5M

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:

     

    Jones has average over 20 homers in those 6 years and has average over 30 homers in the last 2 years. His career OPS is .781. Career SLG .459

    Ellsbury's value is less than that, because large differences in pop and power trumps small differences in OBP and large differences in stolen bases. 

    The budget for Ellsbury should be no more than 5 years and 60M, which would be a mistake for the Red Sox but a good value for some of the NL teams.

     



    Truthfully which player would you prefer? Jones or Ells?

     

    JoeB and Hill laid it out.

    Jones is not a FA---the team chose to offer him an extension. They placed a value on his contributions. As was pointed out he probably could have gotten more-perhaps he loves Baltimore and wants to spend more years there.

    We, as Sox fans agree Ells is a fine player, we recognize his primary talent is hitting and baserunning.  He's a good defender. Most on the board would like to keep him. He may be offered a contract in excess of $100 M from another suitor; which he will take. If he gets $40 M more than the 5 and $60 M you suggest are you going to rip him as you have for the last three years because someone said You are just the player we need to take us to the Really Big Dance--are you going to say that that owner shouldn't do that, like you know more than that owner?

    If John Henry and BenC offered Pence or Choo a 5 year $85 M contract are you going to begin the chirping all over again  that they are not worth it, ticket prices, parking, programs, etc. are all going up because of this signing. You have lost your credibility. Great to have an opinion but....

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from jader. Show jader's posts

    Re: Adam Jones 6 Years in and 6 Years & 85.5M

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:

    Jones has average over 20 homers in those 6 years and has average over 30 homers in the last 2 years. His career OPS is .781. Career SLG .459

    Ellsbury's value is less than that, because large differences in pop and power trumps small differences in OBP and large differences in stolen bases. 

    The budget for Ellsbury should be no more than 5 years and 60M, which would be a mistake for the Red Sox but a good value for some of the NL teams.




     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from jader. Show jader's posts

    Re: Adam Jones 6 Years in and 6 Years & 85.5M

    If I had a choice, I'd take Jones. More pop, good athlete and younger

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from youkillus. Show youkillus's posts

    Re: Adam Jones 6 Years in and 6 Years & 85.5M

    Put Baltimore in the running for Ells, this is a team that may see themselves one player away from winning, he would be a huge upgrade over McLouth, and allow Jones to move to RF.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Adam Jones 6 Years in and 6 Years & 85.5M

    In response to youkillus' comment:

    Put Baltimore in the running for Ells, this is a team that may see themselves one player away from winning, he would be a huge upgrade over McLouth, and allow Jones to move to RF.



    You have Markakis in RF.  But given the choice between Markakis and McLouth, I would choose McLouth anyway.  Cheaper, and he seems to do a lot of little things well.

     
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  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Adam Jones 6 Years in and 6 Years & 85.5M

    In response to youkillus' comment:

    Put Baltimore in the running for Ells, this is a team that may see themselves one player away from winning, he would be a huge upgrade over McLouth, and allow Jones to move to RF.



    Cheapskates.  They did nothing this past offseason and that's part of the reason they declined from last year.

     

     
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  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Adam Jones 6 Years in and 6 Years & 85.5M

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:

    Hill, please provide the factual details behind "WAR".  I see fangraphs as a shallow fantasy baseball site, which might explain why a profile like Jones has a lower WAR than Ellsbury. However, I've noted that this Board places a much higher value on Ellsbury. I'll take Jones, even at FA market costs.

    You make the same request every year ... perhaps you should bookmark this webpage:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Adam Jones 6 Years in and 6 Years & 85.5M

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:

    1-You need to differentiate between a FA contract and an extension.

    2-You need to learn the difference between a 6-contract, and a buyout of an arbitration year plus five more years.  Those are different values.


    Joe, in your patronizing and condescending comment, you arrogantly failed to grasp the fact that my post was about "value", not "market value. 

    I know all about the CBA and the issues of player value and fit vs. market value. However, your post manifestly shows you need to study the issue more than you have.  



    I accept your apology.

     
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