ADG, please read: Bailey/Farrell, 10 days in June
posted at 6/21/2013 1:44 PM EDT
ADG has made a cottage industry out of dumping on players and even the manager John Farrell, who ADG seems to believe just does not know what he is doing and certainly isn't as smart as ADG.
The Bailey situation is a perfect example. ADG would have us believe it was obvious long ago that Bailey couldn't hack it as a closer and that Farrell has cost the Sox wins by sticking with Bailey.
This is absolutely not true, and I can prove it. Consider the following facts--
For all of April, May and the first 9 days of June, Bailey had an ERA of 1.47 and had 6 saves in 7 opportunities. That's a good closer by any reasonable measure.
Suddenly, starting June 10, Bailey seemed to lose it. In his next five games, including last night, he gave up 6 runs. Horrible, terrible. Heads must roll.
However, reality is that the Sox won the first four of those games despite Bailey's problems. To further complicate things, on June 12 the Sox won 2-1 and Bailey had a clean 9th inning for the save.
At that point, June 12, virtually no manager would have dumped Bailey despite the 2 runs given up on June 10 (in the 10th inning--the Sox won it in the 14th).
So we're really talking about five days in June and three games--June 15, 18, and 20. The Sox won on June 15 and Bailey got the save despite giving up 2 runs. The Sox won again on June 18 despite Bailey giving up 1 run (and almost ruining a great start by Doubront) and blowing the save. The dinger by Gomes in the bottom of the 9th won the game, 3-1. Finally, we have last night's game when Bailey blew another great effort, Lackey and Uehara holding the Tigers to 2 runs in 8 innings, with the 2 run dinger in the 9th without getting any outs. After the game, Farrell said he will make a change.
My point is not that Bailey isn't stinking up the joint right now because he clearly is.
My point is that this has all happened very suddenly in a season in which, up until June 15, Bailey had made 7 of 9 saves and had an ERA of 2.21. And even in the next three games--June 15, 18, and 20--the Sox still won 2 of 3 games while Bailey gave up 5 runs. Plus he was the announced closer, plus he was/is healthy, plus he had closed successfully earlier this season and before this season.
So, before anyone signs up for the ADG thesis that Farrell just doesn't know what he is doing, take a look at the facts first.