Another LF POst - But With Numbers!! And Fewer Calories!!

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Another LF POst - But With Numbers!! And Fewer Calories!!

    In my continuing campaign against Daniel Nava, I took my Normalizing formulae and tried to evaluate his actual performance against RHP. I do not have any sort of vendetta against Nava, and am happy for him that the was able to prove so many people wrong. But it is time to move on. Nava does have a solid looking career vs. RHP with .269 / .383 / .414 splits across the board, and it certainly looks respectable at first glance. After all, who would not want a player with a .383OBP in the lineup?

     

    However, I went beyond the numbers with Nava and isolated his performance vs. RHP. First of all, his BABIP against RHP is .332, which is not absurd in some cases. It is with Nava, however. If you normalize his LD/GB/FB splits, his calculated BABIP should really be closer to .292, some 40 points lower. Couple this with his subpar power output, and you are very likely not looking at a productive strong side to the LF platoon.

     

    Over 450 plate appearances, Nava is likely to hit .245 with a .324 OBP and 5 HRs. While Nava is certainly an adept line drive hitter against RHP, he simply strikes out too much (22.8%) and hits too many fly balls for a hitter with very little power.

     

    The summary (BA / OBP, HRs in 450 PA)

    Daniel Nava. .245 / .323 5HR

    Seth Smith. .264 / .344 15HR

    David Murphy .281 / .351 15HR

    David Dejesus .265 / .340 12HR

    Mike Carp .260 / .332 20HR

    Brandon Moss .257 / .322 34HR (264PA)

    Will Venable  - .235 / .313 12HRs

     

    I have long advocated for Seth Smith as the LHH in the LF platoon. Using the same BABIP breakdown, Smith would be the equivalent of a .264 / .344 hitter in LF with 15HRs, again in 450 plate appearances. David DeJesus is another I like in these situations, and he projects as a .265 / .340 hitter with 12HRs over 450 PA. Both figure to be steps up, but the cost is a little unknown. Undoutedly, Epstein / Hoyer signed DeJesus with the intention of flipping him for players to rebuild the farm, so he is unlikely to simply hand him over. The Sox might be at a slight advantage in dealing for DeJesus, as the Epstein / Hoyer tandem has their fingerprints all over the Sox farm system, and might be amenable to a prospect they drafted who would appear to not be panning out, assuming they have any residual faith. But I wouldn’t count on it.

    Beane might be easier to deal with in this case. A while back I proposed a deal of Saltalamacchia for Smith, in an exchange two players coming off seasons with similar remaining control, salary and WAR. I would be surprised if Beane were not amenable in his quest to repeat. After all, Smith is slated for DH duty, but the Athletics still have Chris Carter, Brandon Moss, and Daric Barton struggling for 1B/DH at bats, and have to accommodate Coco Crisp, Yoenis Cespedes, Josh Reddick and Chris Young in the OF. They are still overcrowded at every position even without Smith. And catcher right now is a tossup between Derek Norris, who lost the job briefly last year, and career backup George Kottaras. Also worth pointing, with regards to non-nomralized perforamces, Smith is among the top 25 hitters in MLB for OPS and wOBA against RHP over the past 3 years. He possesses a .228ISO against them, which is in the top ten. If he could maintain his .228 ISO, you have a player with a .806OPS.

    Brandon Moss is also a potential fit. I did try running the numbers similarly, but his 266PA sample vs. RHP over the last 3 years is simply too small, and the resulting .257 / .322 BA and OBP are potentially reasonably enough, but the 34HRs in 450 plate appearances is simply not going to happen. This is a skewed small sample, and his 26% HR/FB is actually higher than Giancarlo Stanton over the same stretch. If the Sox would go for an outfielder thy traded away already, David Murphy would be smarter. His projection of .280 / .351 with 15HRs potentially puts him a little ahead of Smith. However, the matchup is not as simple now that the Rangers have signed a catcher. Could something be worked out? I suppose there is potential.

    Mike Carp is also very likely to be available soon, and may actually already be depending on the Mariners lineup. Their goal this offseason seemed to have the intention of replacing him offensively, along with a few others. However, he has only 330PA vs. RHP over the past 3 years. His .263 / .332 splits looks realistic, but the 20HRs he projects for is probably carried a little bit too much by a hot streak back in August, 2011. Really, he is very unknown between small samples and injury-plagued seasons. Some Seattle bloggers do seem to think Carp still possesses significant trade value, as they also feel about Smoak. Personally, I think their trade value for either will be heavily dependent on the number of teams interested and nothing else.

    Will Venable was another name I liked, although he is fairly entrenched in a platoon. He figured more like the powerful version of Nava, with numbers of .246 / .313 and 12HRs. His power numbers are depressed by Petco, but he does strike out a very high 23% of the time vs. RHP.   To be honest, Venable's numbers did disappoint, although it is also safe to estimae half his ABs come in Petco, where his OPS is about .150 lower.

    And of course the Sox have Ryan Kalish, but there is certainly not enough data to do anything with him.  But really, if Nava struggles, he is the one next in line, not anyone else on this list...

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Another LF POst - But With Numbers!! And Fewer Calories!!

    Nice job notin.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from kimsaysthis. Show kimsaysthis's posts

    Re: Another LF POst - But With Numbers!! And Fewer Calories!!

    I wish I had more of a finesse with numbers to comment on your threads. They're brilliant and hilarious, and I love brilliant and hilarious.

     
  4. This post has been removed.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Another LF POst - But With Numbers!! And Fewer Calories!!

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    A lot of smoke. A LF platoon with 23 million on Ellspuff and old punch and judy Shane will be an embarrassment that will rival Crawbust and Ellspuff at nearly 30 million.

    The Red Sox don't need anymore 3rd and 4th rate OF'ers to hit RHP. They need to stick with Kalish and Nava, and park one in AAA and wait for Bradley, Jr. They need to acquire J. Upton via trade and they need to move Shane to CF and use Ellsbury as currency in the trade pool for J. Upton.

    [/QUOTE]

    One note johnny.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Another LF POst - But With Numbers!! And Fewer Calories!!

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    A lot of smoke. A LF platoon with 23 million on Ellspuff and old punch and judy Shane will be an embarrassment that will rival Crawbust and Ellspuff at nearly 30 million.

    The Red Sox don't need anymore 3rd and 4th rate OF'ers to hit RHP. They need to stick with Kalish and Nava, and park one in AAA and wait for Bradley, Jr. They need to acquire J. Upton via trade and they need to move Shane to CF and use Ellsbury as currency in the trade pool for J. Upton.

    [/QUOTE]

    Judy Victorino has a higher road slugging % than powerhouse Judy Upton.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Another LF POst - But With Numbers!! And Fewer Calories!!

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In my continuing campaign against Daniel Nava, I took my Normalizing formulae and tried to evaluate his actual performance against RHP. I do not have any sort of vendetta against Nava, and am happy for him that the was able to prove so many people wrong. But it is time to move on. Nava does have a solid looking career vs. RHP with .269 / .383 / .414 splits across the board, and it certainly looks respectable at first glance. After all, who would not want a player with a .383OBP in the lineup?

     

    However, I went beyond the numbers with Nava and isolated his performance vs. RHP. First of all, his BABIP against RHP is .332, which is not absurd in some cases. It is with Nava, however. If you normalize his LD/GB/FB splits, his calculated BABIP should really be closer to .292, some 40 points lower. Couple this with his subpar power output, and you are very likely not looking at a productive strong side to the LF platoon.

     

    Over 450 plate appearances, Nava is likely to hit .245 with a .324 OBP and 5 HRs. While Nava is certainly an adept line drive hitter against RHP, he simply strikes out too much (22.8%) and hits too many fly balls for a hitter with very little power.

     

    The summary (BA / OBP, HRs in 450 PA)

    Daniel Nava. .245 / .323 5HR

    Seth Smith. .264 / .344 15HR

    David Murphy .281 / .351 15HR

    David Dejesus .265 / .340 12HR

    Mike Carp .260 / .332 20HR

    Brandon Moss .257 / .322 34HR (264PA)

    Will Venable  - .235 / .313 12HRs

     

    I have long advocated for Seth Smith as the LHH in the LF platoon. Using the same BABIP breakdown, Smith would be the equivalent of a .264 / .344 hitter in LF with 15HRs, again in 450 plate appearances. David DeJesus is another I like in these situations, and he projects as a .265 / .340 hitter with 12HRs over 450 PA. Both figure to be steps up, but the cost is a little unknown. Undoutedly, Epstein / Hoyer signed DeJesus with the intention of flipping him for players to rebuild the farm, so he is unlikely to simply hand him over. The Sox might be at a slight advantage in dealing for DeJesus, as the Epstein / Hoyer tandem has their fingerprints all over the Sox farm system, and might be amenable to a prospect they drafted who would appear to not be panning out, assuming they have any residual faith. But I wouldn’t count on it.

    Beane might be easier to deal with in this case. A while back I proposed a deal of Saltalamacchia for Smith, in an exchange two players coming off seasons with similar remaining control, salary and WAR. I would be surprised if Beane were not amenable in his quest to repeat. After all, Smith is slated for DH duty, but the Athletics still have Chris Carter, Brandon Moss, and Daric Barton struggling for 1B/DH at bats, and have to accommodate Coco Crisp, Yoenis Cespedes, Josh Reddick and Chris Young in the OF. They are still overcrowded at every position even without Smith. And catcher right now is a tossup between Derek Norris, who lost the job briefly last year, and career backup George Kottaras. Also worth pointing, with regards to non-nomralized perforamces, Smith is among the top 25 hitters in MLB for OPS and wOBA against RHP over the past 3 years. He possesses a .228ISO against them, which is in the top ten. If he could maintain his .228 ISO, you have a player with a .806OPS.

    Brandon Moss is also a potential fit. I did try running the numbers similarly, but his 266PA sample vs. RHP over the last 3 years is simply too small, and the resulting .257 / .322 BA and OBP are potentially reasonably enough, but the 34HRs in 450 plate appearances is simply not going to happen. This is a skewed small sample, and his 26% HR/FB is actually higher than Giancarlo Stanton over the same stretch. If the Sox would go for an outfielder thy traded away already, David Murphy would be smarter. His projection of .280 / .351 with 15HRs potentially puts him a little ahead of Smith. However, the matchup is not as simple now that the Rangers have signed a catcher. Could something be worked out? I suppose there is potential.

    Mike Carp is also very likely to be available soon, and may actually already be depending on the Mariners lineup. Their goal this offseason seemed to have the intention of replacing him offensively, along with a few others. However, he has only 330PA vs. RHP over the past 3 years. His .263 / .332 splits looks realistic, but the 20HRs he projects for is probably carried a little bit too much by a hot streak back in August, 2011. Really, he is very unknown between small samples and injury-plagued seasons. Some Seattle bloggers do seem to think Carp still possesses significant trade value, as they also feel about Smoak. Personally, I think their trade value for either will be heavily dependent on the number of teams interested and nothing else.

    Will Venable was another name I liked, although he is fairly entrenched in a platoon. He figured more like the powerful version of Nava, with numbers of .246 / .313 and 12HRs. His power numbers are depressed by Petco, but he does strike out a very high 23% of the time vs. RHP.   To be honest, Venable's numbers did disappoint, although it is also safe to estimae half his ABs come in Petco, where his OPS is about .150 lower.

    And of course the Sox have Ryan Kalish, but there is certainly not enough data to do anything with him.  But really, if Nava struggles, he is the one next in line, not anyone else on this list...

    [/QUOTE]

    Well thought out notin but it would be nice to see a real fixture at some point rather than situational hitters.  A guy like Ryan Braun on this club would make a huge difference and give this team an identity.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from ZILLAGOD. Show ZILLAGOD's posts

    Re: Another LF POst - But With Numbers!! And Fewer Calories!!

    The only numbers you need to look at when evaluating Daniel Nava:

    29 - HIS AGE

    148 - # OF GAMES PLAYED OVER TWO SEASONS

    .242/.243 EXTREMLEY CONSISTENT BATTING AVERAGE...EXTREMELEY POOR.

    ...and of course the strikeouts....which are high numbers.

    This ship has sailed. Consider him as a possible 4th or 5th outfielder. A guy who plays less than once a week. That's all he'll ever be good for.

     
  9. This post has been removed.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Another LF POst - But With Numbers!! And Fewer Calories!!

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    A lot of smoke. A LF platoon with 23 million on Ellspuff and old punch and judy Shane will be an embarrassment that will rival Crawbust and Ellspuff at nearly 30 million.

    The Red Sox don't need anymore 3rd and 4th rate OF'ers to hit RHP. They need to stick with Kalish and Nava, and park one in AAA and wait for Bradley, Jr. They need to acquire J. Upton via trade and they need to move Shane to CF and use Ellsbury as currency in the trade pool for J. Upton.

    [/QUOTE]

    Judy Victorino has a higher road slugging % than powerhouse Judy Upton.

    [/QUOTE]

    This is my main reason against a deal for Upton the unrealized potentional.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from vtfanofcs. Show vtfanofcs's posts

    Re: Another LF POst - But With Numbers!! And Fewer Calories!!

      I vote Kalish over Nava.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: Another LF POst - But With Numbers!! And Fewer Calories!!

    Kalish is the guy in LF to start the season unless he collapses in the spring. 

     

    LF - Kalish

    CF- Ellsbury

    RF - Victorino

     

    4th OF - Gomes (disaster)

    5th OF - open competition

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Another LF POst - But With Numbers!! And Fewer Calories!!

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Kalish is the guy in LF to start the season unless he collapses in the spring. 

     

    LF - Kalish

    CF- Ellsbury

    RF - Victorino

     

    4th OF - Gomes (disaster)

    5th OF - open competition

    [/QUOTE]


     

    If I were to predict, I would say Nava starts the season in LF. With tthe amount of time Kalish has missed over the last couple seasons, I would be surprised to see him start on opening day while the team has other options. I do think Kalish will take over LF at some point. ..

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: Another LF POst - But With Numbers!! And Fewer Calories!!

    Hoping Kalish finally emerges; I wish guys like Nada and Salty were off the team, high strikeout guys are a downer.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Another LF POst - But With Numbers!! And Fewer Calories!!

    Nava was one of my favorite Red Sox players last year.  That's how bad things were.

    On a good team he should be no more than a reserve player who gets 100 AB's in a season.  He might be able to start on a really bad team.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Another LF POst - But With Numbers!! And Fewer Calories!!

    Judy Victorino has a higher road slugging % than powerhouse Judy Upton.

    [/QUOTE]

    This is my main reason against a deal for Upton the unrealized potentional.

    1) The guy is 25 and you are talking "unrealized poetential".

    2) You guys loved Cody Ross and still love Papi (both with huge Home/Road splits). Until last year, I never heard you guys sayine we should trade Youk due to his poor road numbers. Wade Boggs had a 150 point Road/Home differential. There are countless others.

    3) Any player Ben has not signed or acquried has serious flaws you guys just can not overlook: too many Ks, poor road splits, poor RH'd or LH'd splits, poor attitude, etc... Yet, you are quick to overlook the faults of players Ben has signed, and "hope for the best".

     * Shane has only had an OPS over .803 once in his career. He has a 150 point career spli differential vs RHPs and LHPs-with his worst being against righties, who we face about 65% of the time. Upton's poor road splits are only about 50% of the games. It was the same with CC: many of you wanted him to bat 1st or 3rd even against LHP's despite his sub .700 career OPS vs lefties. But this is all OK, right?

     * Napoli often struggles against RHPs as well and has missed many games. But, he's fine, right?

     * Dempster turns 36 in early May. He has a career WHIP of 1.43 and had horrible road splits with the Cubs. His numbers vs the AL are bad. But, he's fine, right?

    I could go on with all of our signings. I could fine statistical weaknesses of every MLB player. We have to look at the overall package, and it is clear that Upton is the best player that is available. I'm not saying "make it happen" like I said with Brett Anderson and G Stanton, but we should make a strong offer and see what happens. (We might have already done that.) 

    All players have faults. The fact is, if we want to compete this year and into the next 2 years or more, we need a solid middle order bat and a top of rotation pitcher. The pitcher is hard to get, but Upton is being served on a platter. You think other players like Upton will come along every few weeks or months? They don't.

    Yes, he may never improve on his .868 OPS of the last 4 years (.868 is better than Youk's career OPS.), but even that would be leeps and bounds better than what we have right now.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Another LF POst - But With Numbers!! And Fewer Calories!!

    In response to vtfanofcs' comment:
    [QUOTE]

      I vote Kalish over Nava.

    [/QUOTE]

    I don't see Kalish doing better than .768 vs RHPs this year.

    Gotta like the .369 OBP vs righties put up by Nava. To me, it negates the poor Slg% and high K rate.

    I wish we could do better, but as of right now, Nava is the man vs RHPs and Gomes will start vs LHPs.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Another LF POst - But With Numbers!! And Fewer Calories!!

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Judy Victorino has a higher road slugging % than powerhouse Judy Upton.

    [/QUOTE]

    This is my main reason against a deal for Upton the unrealized potentional.

    1) The guy is 25 and you are talking "unrealized poetential".

    2) You guys loved Cody Ross and still love Papi (both with huge Home/Road splits). Until last year, I never heard you guys sayine we should trade Youk due to his poor road numbers. Wade Boggs had a 150 point Road/Home differential. There are countless others.

    3) Any player Ben has not signed or acquried has serious flaws you guys just can not overlook: too many Ks, poor road splits, poor RH'd or LH'd splits, poor attitude, etc... Yet, you are quick to overlook the faults of players Ben has signed, and "hope for the best".

     * Shane has only had an OPS over .803 once in his career. He has a 150 point career spli differential vs RHPs and LHPs-with his worst being against righties, who we face about 65% of the time. Upton's poor road splits are only about 50% of the games. It was the same with CC: many of you wanted him to bat 1st or 3rd even against LHP's despite his sub .700 career OPS vs lefties. But this is all OK, right?

     * Napoli often struggles against RHPs as well and has missed many games. But, he's fine, right?

     * Dempster turns 36 in early May. He has a career WHIP of 1.43 and had horrible road splits with the Cubs. His numbers vs the AL are bad. But, he's fine, right?

    I could go on with all of our signings. I could fine statistical weaknesses of every MLB player. We have to look at the overall package, and it is clear that Upton is the best player that is available. I'm not saying "make it happen" like I said with Brett Anderson and G Stanton, but we should make a strong offer and see what happens. (We might have already done that.) 

    All players have faults. The fact is, if we want to compete this year and into the next 2 years or more, we need a solid middle order bat and a top of rotation pitcher. The pitcher is hard to get, but Upton is being served on a platter. You think other players like Upton will come along every few weeks or months? They don't.

    Yes, he may never improve on his .868 OPS of the last 4 years (.868 is better than Youk's career OPS.), but even that would be leeps and bounds better than what we have right now.

    [/QUOTE]

    Shane, Napoli and Dempster were free agents.  One of the big reasons some of us have supported this offseason's signings is that no prospects or draft picks were surrendered.  

    Upton requires parting with a significant package of talent.

    If he was a free agent this would be a different discussion.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Another LF POst - But With Numbers!! And Fewer Calories!!

    "Shane, Napoli and Dempster were free agents. One of the big reasons some of us have supported this offseason's signings is that no prospects or draft picks were surrendered.

    Upton requires parting with a significant package of talent.

    If he was a free agent this would be a different discussion."

    In addition to those guys requiring no prospects or draft picks, their contracts are short enough that the Sox maintain some financial flexibility.   Even if Upton were a free agent, the length of the contract that he would be looking for might be a deal breaker for me.   Overpaying in "just" dollars is better than overpaying in players and/or years.

     

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: Another LF POst - But With Numbers!! And Fewer Calories!!

     

    Cherington should hire moonslav59 and notin.   :)

     

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Another LF POst - But With Numbers!! And Fewer Calories!!

    Shane, Napoli and Dempster were free agents.  One of the big reasons some of us have supported this offseason's signings is that no prospects or draft picks were surrendered.  

    Upton requires parting with a significant package of talent.

    If he was a free agent this would be a different discussion.

     

    Yes, I said all this about the difference between signing FAs and trading prospects. I know it is apples to apples, but the big supporters of these signings were able to put aside poor home/away or L/R splits of our free agents, but now it seems to be oh so important when discussing Upton.

     

    How much would Upton be worth if he was a FA this winter looking for a 3 year deal (ages 25-27)?

    I'd guess at least $60M/3 instead of the $38M/3 he is owed now. How many prospects is $22M worth?

    Just sayin...

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Another LF POst - But With Numbers!! And Fewer Calories!!

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    Cherington should hire moonslav59 and notin.   :)

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I turned down a $125K/yr offer.

     

    (LOL- just kiddin')

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Another LF POst - But With Numbers!! And Fewer Calories!!

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Shane, Napoli and Dempster were free agents.  One of the big reasons some of us have supported this offseason's signings is that no prospects or draft picks were surrendered.  

    Upton requires parting with a significant package of talent.

    If he was a free agent this would be a different discussion.

     

    Yes, I said all this about the difference between signing FAs and trading prospects. I know it is apples to apples, but the big supporters of these signings were able to put aside poor home/away or L/R splits of our free agents, but now it seems to be oh so important when discussing Upton.

    [/QUOTE]

    I don't think anybody 'put aside' the flaws of players like Naps, Victorino or Dempster. I certainly didn't and I don't remember anybody disputing that these players have significant flaws.

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Alibiike. Show Alibiike's posts

    Re: Another LF POst - But With Numbers!! And Fewer Calories!!

    Could we pry Trumbo from LAA?

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from tomnev. Show tomnev's posts

    Re: Another LF POst - But With Numbers!! And Fewer Calories!!

    I don't think anyone believe Nava is an everyday player, but he had a .797 OPS last year versus RHP....which was I think 3rd on the team....Papi and Middlebrooks(.798) being better.....He may not win the job, but he should be given a very good opportunity to be the LH side of a LF Platoon. Yes he will be 30 on Opening day, but he has the plate discipline to get better and he gets more experience versus ML pitching. Last year due to injuries he was forced into playing everyday and I would bet his horrible performances versus LHP brought down his potential #'s versus RHP. I want Kalish to be what he was projected to be just as much as anyone else, but I havent seen anything from him yet, that makes me think he will provided better numbers than nava.

     

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