Re: Anyone on Red Sox: On the front burner worried about the Yankees?
posted at 6/23/2011 8:25 PM EDT
In Response to Re: Anyone on Red Sox: On the front burner worried about the Yankees?
[QUOTE]In Response to Re: Anyone on Red Sox: On the front burner worried about the Yankees? : LOL, pitching over their heads? In general, I've heard that before. Was your point about the Pettite-less Yankees pitching below, perhaps? And, haven't many RS fans extolled the virtues and beat their chest regarding the Sox outlook this yr as deemed by the experts? You can't have it both ways. As far as Garcia is concerned, you're making a lot of assumptions about the rest of his season; as he junkifies , he may be following a Jamie Moyer/Livian Hernandez career arc, IMO. It is clear he doesn't do well against elite lineups (ditto Burnett), vis-a-vis, the RS. And, if anything, Nova seems to be on the uptick, and Hughes and Colon are coming back; forget about those? Burnett is doing better than I expected; he was one of those who stunk up the joint last Aug-Sep (i.e, perhaps below ). All I said about the respective team ERAs was FWIW ; on paper, the NYA need pitching, yes. And one irony; although the RS Team ERA is # 20 in MLB (TB is #11, the NYA #10, and #1 in the BP, at least as of a week ago), it has partly to do with Fenway, where the Home/Rd splits currently are 4.35/3.61. (This has been a largely consistent pattern for the last 100 yrs); Remember that debate?
Posted by nhsteven[/QUOTE]
I think reality caught up to the Pettitte-less Yankees, just as it will this year. Even Pettitte was pitching well beyond his career average, though his ERA was starting to climb when he went on the DL. When you have guys like Pettitte and Garcia, nearing the end of their careers with thousands of innings by which to judge them, you know what to expect from them. If they give you a significantly better performance then they are pitching over their heads IMO. Look at Garcia's WHIP - how do you explain that it is slightly worse than his career average, but his ERA is almost a run lower? That's just an anomoly waiting to correct itself. If he gives you 160 innings with a 4.1 ERA, you should be ecstatic - it's really unfair to expect anything more.
I expect Burnett will continue as he has performed thus far this season, because it is more consistent with his history than last year's performance. Yes, I'd say he underperformed last year, and may even have had some injury issues that he was reluctant to disclose.
I'm not sure if you or I should be more excited about Hughes coming back. He has his velocity back, but he also gave up three hits and home run in 4 innings in low A ball. He has not been even an average major-league pitcher in nearly a year. Let's see how he does in his next rehab start.
Nova and Colon are wild cards. Nova is simply too young and has no history to be able to place expectations on him. He could put together a nice string of games that make the difference between making the post-season or not. Or he could fall apart and wind up back in Scranton before the season is through. Chances are he's somewhere in the middle - about what he has given you thus far.
With Colon anything is possible. He could come back and be as good as he has been thus far. He could come back and stink. He could come back and suffer one injury after another. He could never come back. Or he could be banned for his secret "stem cell" injections in the Dominican Repbulic. He's just a walking question mark.
I think what the 'experts' predicted is that the Yankees could coast to the post-season on the strength of their offense. I don't think anybody picked them to finish near the top in starters' ERA (maybe bullpen ERA). And if pressed, most of those 'experts' picked the Rays to finish third, often only a handful of games behind the Yankees. So my predictions, with all the question marks and wild-cards surrounding the Yankee rotation, are not that far from the main-stream. That said, I think there is more baseball knowledge on this forum than in every SI article ever written, so I don't put a lot of stock in expert opinion.