Re: Anyone read or believe this note on Drew?
posted at 2/7/2014 11:29 AM EST
How many of those scouting reports that mention the possibility Bogaerts moving off position mention in the same sentence "as his body fills out" or something like that?
Look for yourself. I pasted the first 5 I found that were recent.
Plus arm. Solid-average range, but may lose footspeed as he gets bigger. Needs to slow the game down defensively and resist the feeling to rush plays. Inconsistent with footwork and staying down on the ball. Choppy at times with his movements and reactions.Improvements in the field and physical development should allow Bogaerts to stick at shortstop for the outset of his big league career. If he needs to move off the position, has the tools to play either third base or left field...
Adam Wells (August 2013)
Will continue to develop as a shortstop unless he’s forced to move from position; also profiles as a third baseman or corner outfielder. Solid hands; plus arm strength; lacks quick feet and explosiveness for surefire up-the-middle future.
Playing shortstop, even if it is just at a fringe-average level, gives Bogaerts tremendous value to the Red Sox because his bat is so good. Having an up-the-middle player who can hit 30 home runs—not this season or even next year, but eventually—is part of what makes Bogaerts so highly regarded.
But even when Bogaerts is forced to move off shortstop, his bat is so good that there is no concern about his potential to be one of the 10 to 15 best hitters in the league and a perennial MVP candidate.
The Scouting Book (2014)
His weakness... some awkwardness in the field, especially with his footwork (he's young). There's really not anything to worry about here, though, other than the possibility he may bump Middlebrooks to first base one of these years.
Baseball America (June 2013)
...but his defense has improved to the point where he could spend the early part of his career at shortstop rather than having to move to third base immediately, although as he fills out his 6-foot-3 frame it might not be long before he outgrows the position. Wherever he plays, his bat has the potential to make him a star.
Baseball Prospectus (August 2013)
Two areas of Bogaerts’ game that still need work are his defense and strike zone judgment. As a shortstop, he’s made strides in improving his footwork and technique, and the reads off the bat have gotten better as well. The foot speed is only average, however, and further loss of speed into his mid-20s is going to decrease his average-to-slightly-better-than-average range. Given his athleticism, reactions, and instincts, a permanent move over to third base should agree well with Bogaerts, and he has potential to round into a plus defender at the hot corner.
These are all pretty recent, and everyone I read mentioned changing positions at some point in his career.
To me that indicates that they believe he will lose the range to play the position because of his size and weight. He played last season at 20 years old so most would assume that he still has some filling out to do.
Also when projecting positions, scouts all to often try to project body types. This at least to some extent has to do with a lot of scouts feel a move is inevitable. Some larger guys just move better than others, and I think as he is growing he is maintaining his athleticism which is why a lot of scouts are more optimistic he will stick at the position.
Can you support that with any evidence4 that shows what "most scouts" think?