Re: Anyone read or believe this note on Drew?
posted at 2/8/2014 3:30 PM EST
I'm not for signing Drew at all. I think we should trade Dempster and find other solutions to our weaknesses. Keep the comp pick. Stock the farm for the extended future.
Agreed, I pretty much feel the same exact way. Dempster is a good chip, based on the assumption that someone is going to over pay for an innings eater going into spring training.
Someone will, and if one doesn't, then Peavy surely will be well sought after.
At this point, this conversation is relevant on the basis that there is a possibility that the Sox are considering bringing Drew back for some period of time. That doesn't mean that they are not comfortable with going with Bogey/WMB if Drew leaves (because I think they are more than willing to go with those two if Drew leaves) But we just don't really know how much signing Drew and losing the pick is worth to them.
I'm sure Sox management really values that draft choice. I think they have confidence in Bogey at SS and Middy at 3B, but there is enough uneasiness involved when you combine the 2 positions together to make me wonder if they think getting Drew back is of more value than the draft pick. In my opinion when you combine the lost value of the draft pick and the lost payroll budget space, signing Drew is not a good idea. One or the other might be okay, but not both the draft choice and the budget flex. What are the chances of Middy failing? Even if you agree on 30%, if you combine it to the chances Bogey struggles year 1 (maybe 25%), then we are left with a better chance 1 fails or struggles than none. This is the scary point.
To me, the Drew equation is more than just about Drew/Bogey/Middy vs Bogey/Middy/Herrera, it is really more about Drew vs the draft choice + another player at the money Drew would have cost.
It seems that the Sox have really placed a lot of value in building up the farm recently, the 2010 and 2011 drafts really stocked the system. The 2012 draft was weak and the 13 is too early to really judge so I'd like to think that with what is considered a very strong 2014 draft class coming up they would place a higher value on the draft picks.
Agreed, and by all accounts this year's draft will be strong and deep. That draft choice in the early 30's could be a real winner.
If Xander Bogaerts didn't exist. Signing Drew to a 2-3 year deal would be a no-brainer. Look at Mike Napoli, he is a perfect example. If the Sox had a top prospect MLB ready at 1B, I think they would been more willing to let him walk in favor of playing the youngster and taking the pick.
Can you ask the same question about Middy? If it wasn't for Middy, would signing Drew to 2-3 years and moving Bogey to 3B be a "no brainer"?
There is risk with playing rookies, but everyone has to start somewhere and we can't build an entire team through free agency, If managed right you can have a team that is strong enough to deal with starting guys like JBJ, WMB, and Xander Bogaerts every year....because the reality is some of them are going to pan out and when they do you get a superstar for the league minimum. And when you are the Boston Red Sox and you get a Xander Bogaerts on your team for at least 6 years you have the money to go and buy him some protection.
True. Maybe if it wasn't for JBJ taking over for Ellsbury at the same time, it might be easier for Sox management to roll the dice on Bogey and Middy.
I would have loved to still have Adrian Gonzalez in this line up with Bogey, but for all we know we would not of had a world series championship without that trade....and even though he's not as good I kind of really like Napoli. He's cheaper, his defense is just as good and even though he strikes out a ton, his power is just as good, and he makes pitchers throw a LOT of pitches.....look at me I've managed to turn a thread about Drew into Gonzo and then into Napoli.
It's all related. The money we saved on trading AGon and the others allowed us to get Napoli, Victorino, Uehara and others, and having them allows us to roll the dice on Bogey, Middy and JBJ.