Anyone read or believe this note on Drew?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Anyone read or believe this note on Drew?

    Will Middlebrooks could very easily be like Reyonlds.  I think he will strike out about 7% less and round out to be a much better defender than Reynolds, which would make him a very good player with his power. 

    He will never be the next Evan Longoria at third, but he will be a very good MLB third baseman. 

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Anyone read or believe this note on Drew?

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    Will Middlebrooks could very easily be like Reyonlds.  I think he will strike out about 7% less and round out to be a much better defender than Reynolds, which would make him a very good player with his power. 

    He will never be the next Evan Longoria at third, but he will be a very good MLB third baseman. 



    Mark Reynolds started out pretty well...

    age  OPS

    23    .843   17 HRs

    24    .779   28 HRs

    25    .892   44 HRs

    26   .753    32 HRs

    27   .806    37 HRs

    He hasn't been over .763 since.

     Mark Trumbo:

    25   .768  29 HRs

    26   .808  32 HRs

    27   .747  34 HRs

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from fl+adam,. Show fl+adam,'s posts

    Re: Anyone read or believe this note on Drew?

    Here is where I differ from you guys.

     

    You all keep comparing

    WMB, Boggy vs Boggy, Drew

    to me that is wrong!

    I compare WMB, Boggy, Herrera vs Boggy, Drew, WMB/Herra

     

    Without Drew, Herrera is your backup if WMB fails.  With Drew, Herrera is only your Uinf IF WMB fails, or in AAA if he does fine or well.

     

    Drew comes in here as UINF/rotational INF.  I say they sign drew as no one else will with the draft comp, get him for relatively cheap, and split the INF AB's a lot more evenly than is traditionally done and be a very deep team.  P and INF would be very deep, OF less so unless Sizemore comes back strong.  JBJ, Victorino, Gomes, nava, carp does not give me the warm fuzzies.  Neither does WMB, boggy, peddy, herra, naps.  Add Drew and the depth is very nice.  Injuries happen.  Plan for them.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Anyone read or believe this note on Drew?

    Without Drew, Herrera is your backup if WMB fails.  With Drew, Herrera is only your Uinf IF WMB fails, or in AAA if he does fine or well.

    Middy will be given at least a couple months to prove he can or has returned to form, by then Cecchini might be ready to step in.

    Drew comes in here as UINF/rotational INF..

    He will not agree to this, nor would the Sox pay him big money to be a roaming infielder. He may play 2B a little when Pedey needs a break, but if Drew signs here, it will be as our FT SS. He may sit a bit more vs LHPs than the normal FT SS, but unless he gets hurt, he'll get over 550 PAs- almost all at SS.

    Starting with Drew getting 550 PAs (525 at SS and 25 at 2B), here are our 2 most likely options:

    A) Bogey starts at 3B in AAA to start the season and Middy is given at least a couple months to prove himself.

    B) Bogey and Middy bot begin the season on the 25 man roster, and the PAs might be distributed something like this:

    Drew 550 (525 at SS vs  RHPs and a few LHPs and 25 at 2B when Pedey needs a rest)

    Bogey 550 (400 at 3B mostly vs RHPs and 150 at SS vs mostly LHPs)

    Middy  400 (275 at 3B mostly vs LHPs, 50 at 1B, and 75 at DH)

    Nappi 600 (550 at 1B and 50 at DH)

    Papi  600 (575 at DH and 25 at 1B in NL parks)

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Anyone read or believe this note on Drew?

    In response to fl+adam,'s comment:

    Here is where I differ from you guys.

     

    You all keep comparing

    WMB, Boggy vs Boggy, Drew

    to me that is wrong!

    I compare WMB, Boggy, Herrera vs Boggy, Drew, WMB/Herra

     

    Without Drew, Herrera is your backup if WMB fails.  With Drew, Herrera is only your Uinf IF WMB fails, or in AAA if he does fine or well.

     

    Drew comes in here as UINF/rotational INF.  I say they sign drew as no one else will with the draft comp, get him for relatively cheap, and split the INF AB's a lot more evenly than is traditionally done and be a very deep team.  P and INF would be very deep, OF less so unless Sizemore comes back strong.  JBJ, Victorino, Gomes, nava, carp does not give me the warm fuzzies.  Neither does WMB, boggy, peddy, herra, naps.  Add Drew and the depth is very nice.  Injuries happen.  Plan for them.



    You don't bring a guy like Drew in to be a back up.  I seriously doubt he will accept that offer, and if he did he would be the most expensive rotational/UI in the league.

    I wouldn't 100% bank on him not having anyone else out there looking to sign him, the Mets are still interested and with AROD out of the picture the Yankees very well could swoop in and sign him as well.

    Despite the apparence of his market being slow, I still think there is a greater than 50% chance he is not back in Boston.

    The reason why we are making those comparisions is because if Drew stays then it is Drew and Bogey/WMB who gets the vast majority of playing time and if he leaves it is Bogey/WMB who gets the vast majority of playing time.

    Yes Herrera is in the equation, but he is here to be a UIF regardless.  I highly doubt we pay starters money to replace that role.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Anyone read or believe this note on Drew?

    I think the red sox "might" offer 1-10+ to be a quasi-backup. Where does Drew go if he doesn't accept the Red Sox terms as a 110 game platoon infielder?

    Where is the market? The two teams that sound the most interested are Toronto and the Mets. Would you sign with those teams instead of the Red Sox, especially if the money was the same or even similar?

    Toronto only has 2nd base. He doesn't want to play 2nd base part time, let alone full time. He is a Georgia-Florida boy. And playing out side the country would stink to me. And will the Blue Jays compete in the AL East?

    The Mets team stinks. The hitting environment stinks. They have no chance this year.

    I think being a 110 game backup is pretty sweet in Fenway playing on a winner. Even for less long term money guarantees.

     

    With all that said, I would still bet Boras eventually finds a taker for a lot more then the Red Sox are offering. But if not and the money is similar, I think he would take less AB's to stay in Boston.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Anyone read or believe this note on Drew?

    I think the red sox "might" offer 1-10+ to be a quasi-backup. Where does Drew go if he doesn't accept the Red Sox terms as a 110 game platoon infielder?

    Where is the market? The two teams that sound the most interested are Toronto and the Mets. Would you sign with those teams instead of the Red Sox, especially if the money was the same or even similar?

    I think he'd take less elsewhere to get a chance to play SS FT and try and have a big year to get a bigger pay check next year.

    Toronto only has 2nd base. He doesn't want to play 2nd base part time, let alone full time. He is a Georgia-Florida boy. And playing out side the country would stink to me. And will the Blue Jays compete in the AL East?

    The Mets team stinks. The hitting environment stinks. They have no chance this year.

    I think being a 110 game backup is pretty sweet in Fenway playing on a winner. Even for less long term money guarantees.

    He will not be our back up anything.

    He's a better fielder than Bogey right now, and hits RHPs better than Middy.

    At worst, we sign him and sit him vs most lefties, but that's still called "full time". That's still 500-550+ PAs.

     

    With all that said, I would still bet Boras eventually finds a taker for a lot more then the Red Sox are offering. But if not and the money is similar, I think he would take less AB's to stay in Boston.

    I doubt it will even be discussed. ...the playing time part. If Drew is signed- he is the SS.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Anyone read or believe this note on Drew?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I think he'd take less elsewhere to get a chance to play SS FT and try and have a big year to get a bigger pay check next year.

    He will not be our back up anything.

    He's a better fielder than Bogey right now, and hits RHPs better than Middy.

    At worst, we sign him and sit him vs most lefties, but that's still called "full time". That's still 500-550+ PAs.

    If Drew is signed- he is the SS.



    My problem is with the certainty you are saying things.

    First, one thing Drew is not better then either Middlebrooks and Bogaerts is hitting lefties. Which is the point of playing him only against lefties or for injuries. His wRC+ was 53 last year and 74 career vs lefties. Why play him against lefties instead of Middlebrooks or Bogaerts? Middlebrooks is a 124 btw against lefties. Why start Drew against ANY lefties?

    Second, you don't get 500 PA's playing only against righties, especially hitting lower in the lineup. However, he would get 400+. If starting him about 110 games plus injuries is a starter, call him the starter. He would play more them Middlebrooks probably.

    Also, its possible they start Bogey or Middlebrooks in AAA. Or trade Middlebrooks at some point. Or there is a major injury. All things that would give Drew more AB's then I am saying.

    Finally, I could definately see the red sox signing Drew and playing him more then Bogaerts or even Middlebrooks at 3rd base.

    There is a ton of value IMO in signing him and platooning him. His ENTIRE 3 type WAR value would still be gotten. And you would have tons of insurance depth. And you would not block anybody all that much. Not Bogaerts playing SS. And not Middlebrooks getting enough AB's to figure out what you have.

    I think a lot of different things are possible and even reasonable.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Anyone read or believe this note on Drew?

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

    I think he'd take less elsewhere to get a chance to play SS FT and try and have a big year to get a bigger pay check next year.

    He will not be our back up anything.

    He's a better fielder than Bogey right now, and hits RHPs better than Middy.

    At worst, we sign him and sit him vs most lefties, but that's still called "full time". That's still 500-550+ PAs.

    If Drew is signed- he is the SS.

     



    My problem is with the certainty you are saying things.

     

    First, one thing Drew is not better then either Middlebrooks and Bogaerts is hitting lefties. Which is the point of playing him only against lefties or for injuries. His wRC+ was 53 last year and 74 career vs lefties. Why play him against lefties instead of Middlebrooks or Bogaerts? Middlebrooks is a 124 btw against lefties. Why start Drew against ANY lefties?

    Ask John and Ben. They did it last year, even though I was suggesting he sit vs almost all LH'd starters. I'm sure there are a few here and there that he hits well.

     

    Second, you don't get 500 PA's playing only against righties, especially hitting lower in the lineup. However, he would get 400+. If starting him about 110 games plus injuries is a starter, call him the starter. He would play more them Middlebrooks probably.

    Actually, I said Drew plays against all RHPs and some LHPs. If Drew starts vs every RH'd starter and plays that whole game (probable), that's about 450 PAs out of the 650 total from one position. If he gets another 50 vs the LH'd starters he does well against and maybe a few from coming in late in games, he can certainly get 500.'

    I based the 500 number on no injuries. He did get 501 last year, even though he missed time. He might end up at 450, but he won't sign if you tell him he's going to be a utility IF'er or part-time SS. If he signs for 1-2 years, he's looking to his next contract. 

    Also, its possible they start Bogey or Middlebrooks in AAA. Or trade Middlebrooks at some point. Or there is a major injury. All things that would give Drew more AB's then I am saying.

    Yes, I agree, if Drew signs, Bogey will likely start in AAA, unless Middy looks bad in ST.

    Finally, I could definately see the red sox signing Drew and playing him more then Bogaerts or even Middlebrooks at 3rd base.

    I strongly disagree. If they wouldn't play Drew at 3B instead of Iggy, they won't instead of Bogey.

    There is a ton of value IMO in signing him and platooning him. His ENTIRE 3 type WAR value would still be gotten. And you would have tons of insurance depth. And you would not block anybody all that much. Not Bogaerts playing SS. And not Middlebrooks getting enough AB's to figure out what you have.

    $8M for a utility IF'er who will refuse the offer anyways is not going to happen- sorry for being so blunt.

    I think a lot of different things are possible and even reasonable.

    I think Drew would take way less from the Mets to play FT at SS.




     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Anyone read or believe this note on Drew?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    A better question might be: in 5-10 years from now, if Bogey loses a step or two should he move to 3rd base?

    In that time frame we might have an all star caliber GG already playing at 3B, and Bogaerts might still be an average defender at SS with no one in the minors behind him, should he move then?

    We could have zero options at third with the second coming Derek Jeter waiting in Pawtucket...at that point It's a no brainer.

    Reality is, we don't know what will happen down the line, but for right now.....he's a short stop. 



    I am happy with Bogey at SS and Middy/Cecchini at 3B this year. 

    I prefer not to sign Drew.

    I would, however, rather have Drew than Dempster.

    If we had Drew (assuming a 1-2 year deal), I'd like Bogey at 3B in AAA to start the year, Middy getting a long look at 3B, and then the big decision being made at some point after Bogey gains the extra year of team control.



    Where will Cecchini go then if Xander is in AAA Playing 3b? They arent going to limit his playing time And hes not staying in AA. Xander will be in Boston this year IMO. He proved last year that hes ready for the show. Id rather go with Xander and Middy and pass on Drew, but if they do sign him, someone is eventually going to go. Cecchini at AAA, naps at 1b, Lavarnway FINALLY ordered his 1b mitt, so theres no room anywhere in Boston At the corners or in AAA With snyder and now Lav. Im not saying giving xander some reps at 3b in AAA is a bad idea, but Cecchini has absolutely nothing more to prove in AA and is already slated to be the starting 3b in AAA to start the year.

    I remember saying this back in 2012. 2014 would be a big year in the Sox organization because of all the kids in the upper levels that are all going to be ready this year and 2015. We are going to lose a couple of those players. Middy may be the 1st of the young position players.

    one thing is for sure. Its going to be really interesting to watch it all play out. 

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Anyone read or believe this note on Drew?

    In response to fl+adam,'s comment:

    Here is where I differ from you guys.

     

    You all keep comparing

    WMB, Boggy vs Boggy, Drew

    to me that is wrong!

    I compare WMB, Boggy, Herrera vs Boggy, Drew, WMB/Herra

     

    Without Drew, Herrera is your backup if WMB fails.  With Drew, Herrera is only your Uinf IF WMB fails, or in AAA if he does fine or well.

     

    Drew comes in here as UINF/rotational INF.  I say they sign drew as no one else will with the draft comp, get him for relatively cheap, and split the INF AB's a lot more evenly than is traditionally done and be a very deep team.  P and INF would be very deep, OF less so unless Sizemore comes back strong.  JBJ, Victorino, Gomes, nava, carp does not give me the warm fuzzies.  Neither does WMB, boggy, peddy, herra, naps.  Add Drew and the depth is very nice.  Injuries happen.  Plan for them.



    Drew will NOT be a UIF or a platoon SS if hes signed. ill bet $$$ on it. He will not sign here for that role. Wont happen.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Anyone read or believe this note on Drew?

    In response to moonslav59's comment

     

    Ask John and Ben. They did it last year, even though I was suggesting he sit vs almost all LH'd starters. I'm sure there are a few here and there that he hits well.

     

    That was last year, this is this year. Things change. Bogaerts isn't Iggy. And Middlebrooks might play like the Middlebrooks of 2012, instead of 2013. And there would be a different understanding  with Drew going into the season as well which would make him sitting some have a different impact on him.

    Also, I am not that huge on such small samples as he would have against "certain" lefties. I would sit him against all. Maybe the Red Sox would too. And thats all I am saying. It makes sense and it might happen.

    He might end up at 450, but he won't sign if you tell him he's going to be a utility IF'er or part-time SS. If he signs for 1-2 years, he's looking to his next contract. I think Drew would take way less from the Mets to play FT at SS.

     


    I don't think we know what he would do. If the Red Sox told him upfront what I am saying, that he would start against all lefties and he might play more do to injuries, trades or demotion, he might prefer that to the Mets situation. Who knows. I know I might prefer it. Staying where you might be comfortable. Better hitters park. Better team. Bigger stage. Bypassing those advantages for the main points of a guaranteed 40 more starts all against your weak side split and only playing SS? He might prefer the Mets for less money. But I don't think we know that.

    My point isn't that the Red Sox situation is great for him. It isn't. Its that the market seems weak. The Mets and Blue Jays situations suck too. Beggers can't be choosers.

     

    I strongly disagree. If they wouldn't play Drew at 3B instead of Iggy, they won't instead of Bogey.


    Again, different year, different situation. Bogaerts is the future of the Red Sox. More then anybody since probably Clemens. Iggy is better then Bogaerts defensively, but he wasn't the future. Clearly. If the Red Sox believe Bogaerts is just as good at SS as 3rd base and want him to play SS then he will play SS. And again, I am just saying its very possible and there are reasons they "might" prefer Bogaerts at SS and Drew at 3rd. They could play Bogaerts most of the year at SS, then in late August move Drew to SS in preperation for the playoffs. Who knows.

     

    $8M for a utility IF'er who will refuse the offer anyways is not going to happen- sorry for being so blunt.



    Blunt is good. Confidence is good. Certainty, not so much.

    And I agree, he probably will find a better offer and leave and playing time will be a large part in that decision.




     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Anyone read or believe this note on Drew?


    THe more I think about the more I  think Drew ends up going somewhere else.  I really think the Mets/Yankees/Reds/mystery team swoop in and sign him.

    I doubt anyone would want to give him a 1 year deal, that is a lot to give up a first round draft pick for.  (perhaps a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick might not be as hard to give up)  But I've seen rumors that he wants(or has) an opt out offer after one year as well.  That is either complete BS...or it is suggesting that there is a larger market for Drew than what we are seeing right now.  This is a possibility, we don't see everything that happens behind the scenes and some times guys markets are kept much more secretive than others.

    I highly doubt we would want to sign Drew past one year unless Bogey would be moving over to third base.

    If this is the case, then it would make much more sense for  WMB to be on the trading block.

    I do suspect we will hear something very soon, with spring training effectivley here there are still a lot of decent free agents.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Anyone read or believe this note on Drew?

    I actually could be way off on this, perhaps my own biases is playing into my opinion but I just have a hard time believing that the Red Sox would want to give up a potential draft pick to sign a guy to a one year deal, and a multi year deal seems pretty risky with his injury history.  Granted his market price is likely low enough to justiy that price under normal circumstances but with Bogey and WMB ready, and Cecchini and Marrero right behind it seems pretty redundant to sign him.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Anyone read or believe this note on Drew?

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:


    THe more I think about the more I  think Drew ends up going somewhere else.  I really think the Mets/Yankees/Reds/mystery team swoop in and sign him.

    I doubt anyone would want to give him a 1 year deal, that is a lot to give up a first round draft pick for.  (perhaps a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick might not be as hard to give up)  But I've seen rumors that he wants(or has) an opt out offer after one year as well.  That is either complete BS...or it is suggesting that there is a larger market for Drew than what we are seeing right now.  This is a possibility, we don't see everything that happens behind the scenes and some times guys markets are kept much more secretive than others.

    I highly doubt we would want to sign Drew past one year unless Bogey would be moving over to third base.

    If this is the case, then it would make much more sense for  WMB to be on the trading block.

    I do suspect we will hear something very soon, with spring training effectivley here there are still a lot of decent free agents.



    If we did sign Drew to 2-3 years, I think we still would give Middy a 2-3 month look at 3B while Bogey learns 3B in AAA. Hopefully, Middy builds up trade value, or we decide to keep him at 3B, move Middy to 1B, or find another position for Bogey.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Anyone read or believe this note on Drew?

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    I actually could be way off on this, perhaps my own biases is playing into my opinion but I just have a hard time believing that the Red Sox would want to give up a potential draft pick to sign a guy to a one year deal, and a multi year deal seems pretty risky with his injury history.  Granted his market price is likely low enough to justiy that price under normal circumstances but with Bogey and WMB ready, and Cecchini and Marrero right behind it seems pretty redundant to sign him.



    True, a draft pick for just 1 year of Drew, who might be just a slight upgrade over the Middy-Bogey-Herrera group does not seem worth it... even for a Sox management that seems to like Drew more than I.

    I'm not for signing Drew at all. I think we should trade Dempster and find other solutions to our weaknesses. Keep the comp pick. Stock the farm for the extended future.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from fl+adam,. Show fl+adam,'s posts

    Re: Anyone read or believe this note on Drew?

     

    If Drew gets a reasonable offer he leaves.  That is not really in question.  If he gets down into the 6-8m/year range I think he is a good sign, even if he has a 1 year opt out.  Depth is pretty darn valuable guys, and INF is a little thin at the moment.  If WMB has to start in AAA then so be it.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Anyone read or believe this note on Drew?

    In response to fl+adam,'s comment:

     

    If Drew gets a reasonable offer he leaves.  That is not really in question.  If he gets down into the 6-8m/year range I think he is a good sign, even if he has a 1 year opt out.  Depth is pretty darn valuable guys, and INF is a little thin at the moment.  If WMB has to start in AAA then so be it.




    yes infield depth is a little thin. But paying 6-8 million for infield depth is a pretty ridiculously high price, especially when you consider that you are giving up a draft pick and some of that money you will likely have to pay luxury tax on.

    No one in MLB, correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure NO one goes out and pays 8 million a year for a back up.  At least not intentionally

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Anyone read or believe this note on Drew?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    I actually could be way off on this, perhaps my own biases is playing into my opinion but I just have a hard time believing that the Red Sox would want to give up a potential draft pick to sign a guy to a one year deal, and a multi year deal seems pretty risky with his injury history.  Granted his market price is likely low enough to justiy that price under normal circumstances but with Bogey and WMB ready, and Cecchini and Marrero right behind it seems pretty redundant to sign him.



    True, a draft pick for just 1 year of Drew, who might be just a slight upgrade over the Middy-Bogey-Herrera group does not seem worth it... even for a Sox management that seems to like Drew more than I.

    I'm not for signing Drew at all. I think we should trade Dempster and find other solutions to our weaknesses. Keep the comp pick. Stock the farm for the extended future.



    Agreed, I pretty much feel the same exact way.  Dempster is a good chip, based on the assumption that someone is going to over pay for an innings eater going into spring training.

    At this point, this conversation is relevant on the basis that there is a possibility that the Sox are considering bringing Drew back for some period of time.  That doesn't mean that they are not comfortable with going with Bogey/WMB if Drew leaves (because I think they are more than willing to go with those two if Drew leaves)  But we just don't really know how much signing Drew and losing the pick is werth to them.

    It seems that the Sox have really placed a lot of value in building up the farm recently, the 2010 and 2011 drafts really stocked the system.  The 2012 draft was weak and the 13 is too early to really judge so I'd like to think that with what is considered a very strong 2014 draft class coming up they would place a higher value on the draft picks.

    If Xander Bogaerts didn't exist.  Signing Drew to a 2-3 year deal would be a no-brainer.  Look at Mike Napoli, he is a perfect example.  If the Sox had a top prospect MLB ready at 1B, I think they would been more willing to let him walk in favor of playing the youngster and taking the pick.

    There is risk with playing rookies, but everyone has to start somewhere and we can't build an entire team through free agency,  If managed right you can have a team that is strong enough to deal with starting guys like JBJ, WMB, and Xander Bogaerts every year....because the reality is some of them are going to pan out and when they do you get a superstar for the league minimum.  And when you are the Boston Red Sox and you get a Xander Bogaerts on your team for at least 6 years you have the money to go and buy him some protection.

    I would have loved to still have Adrian Gonzalez in this line up with Bogey, but for all we know we would not of had a world series championship without that trade....and even though he's not as good I kind of really like Napoli. He's cheaper, his defense is just as good and even though he strikes out a ton, his power is just as good, and he makes pitchers throw a LOT of pitches.....look at me I've managed to turn a thread about Drew into Gonzo and then into Napoli.

     
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  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Anyone read or believe this note on Drew?

    In response to tvfrank's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to fl+adam,'s comment:

     

    If Drew gets a reasonable offer he leaves.  That is not really in question.  If he gets down into the 6-8m/year range I think he is a good sign, even if he has a 1 year opt out.  Depth is pretty darn valuable guys, and INF is a little thin at the moment.  If WMB has to start in AAA then so be it.




    yes infield depth is a little thin. But paying 6-8 million for infield depth is a pretty ridiculously high price, especially when you consider that you are giving up a draft pick and some of that money you will likely have to pay luxury tax on.

    No one in MLB, correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure NO one goes out and pays 8 million a year for a back up.  At least not intentionally



    1st, how do the SOX lose a draft choice re-signing Drew? 2nd, who, besides you, says he'll be a back up?



    If the Sox do not sign Drew, I'm assuming that someone else will.  That will net the Red Sox a draft pick because he received a qualifying offer.

    signing Drew to a 1 year in favor of gaining a draft pick when you have two young studs waiting in the wings is a huge waste of resources...especially with one of the strongest draft in years coming up.  signing him to a multi year would make more sense but that would block WMB or Bogey and makes zero sense unless you are talking about trading one of them.

    WMB and Bogaerts also need to play everyday, guys with their potential and status are everyday players, no team in the league would play them part time at this point.

    If you really want to advocate bringing Drew back in, then we should be talking about sliding Bogaerts over and trading WMB.  Something I'm not in favor of, but would be a logical argument to have.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Anyone read or believe this note on Drew?

    I'm not for signing Drew at all. I think we should trade Dempster and find other solutions to our weaknesses. Keep the comp pick. Stock the farm for the extended future.

    [/QUOTE]

    Agreed, I pretty much feel the same exact way.  Dempster is a good chip, based on the assumption that someone is going to over pay for an innings eater going into spring training.

    Someone will, and if one doesn't, then Peavy surely will be well sought after.

     

    At this point, this conversation is relevant on the basis that there is a possibility that the Sox are considering bringing Drew back for some period of time.  That doesn't mean that they are not comfortable with going with Bogey/WMB if Drew leaves (because I think they are more than willing to go with those two if Drew leaves)  But we just don't really know how much signing Drew and losing the pick is worth to them.

    I'm sure Sox management really values that draft choice. I think they have confidence in Bogey at SS and Middy at 3B, but there is enough uneasiness involved when you combine the 2 positions together to make me wonder if they think getting Drew back is of more value than the draft pick. In my opinion when you combine the lost value of the draft pick and the lost payroll budget space, signing Drew is not a good idea. One or the other might be okay, but not both the draft choice and the budget flex. What are the chances of Middy failing? Even if you agree on 30%, if you combine it to the chances Bogey struggles year 1 (maybe 25%), then we are left with a better chance 1 fails or struggles than none. This is the scary point.

    To me, the Drew equation is more than just about Drew/Bogey/Middy vs Bogey/Middy/Herrera, it is really more about Drew vs the draft choice + another player at the money Drew would have cost.

     

    It seems that the Sox have really placed a lot of value in building up the farm recently, the 2010 and 2011 drafts really stocked the system.  The 2012 draft was weak and the 13 is too early to really judge so I'd like to think that with what is considered a very strong 2014 draft class coming up they would place a higher value on the draft picks.

    Agreed, and by all accounts this year's draft will be strong and deep. That draft choice in the early 30's could be a real winner.

     

    If Xander Bogaerts didn't exist.  Signing Drew to a 2-3 year deal would be a no-brainer.  Look at Mike Napoli, he is a perfect example.  If the Sox had a top prospect MLB ready at 1B, I think they would been more willing to let him walk in favor of playing the youngster and taking the pick.

    Can you ask the same question about Middy? If it wasn't for Middy, would signing Drew to 2-3 years and moving Bogey to 3B be a "no brainer"?

     

    There is risk with playing rookies, but everyone has to start somewhere and we can't build an entire team through free agency,  If managed right you can have a team that is strong enough to deal with starting guys like JBJ, WMB, and Xander Bogaerts every year....because the reality is some of them are going to pan out and when they do you get a superstar for the league minimum.  And when you are the Boston Red Sox and you get a Xander Bogaerts on your team for at least 6 years you have the money to go and buy him some protection.

    True. Maybe if it wasn't for JBJ taking over for Ellsbury at the same time, it might be easier for Sox management to roll the dice on Bogey and Middy.

     

    I would have loved to still have Adrian Gonzalez in this line up with Bogey, but for all we know we would not of had a world series championship without that trade....and even though he's not as good I kind of really like Napoli. He's cheaper, his defense is just as good and even though he strikes out a ton, his power is just as good, and he makes pitchers throw a LOT of pitches.....look at me I've managed to turn a thread about Drew into Gonzo and then into Napoli.

    It's all related. The money we saved on trading AGon  and the others allowed us to get Napoli, Victorino, Uehara and others, and having them allows us to roll the dice on Bogey, Middy and JBJ.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Anyone read or believe this note on Drew?

    ...how do the SOX lose a draft choice re-signing Drew?

    Unless you think Drew will not sign until after the June draft, we will gain a draft choice when Drew signs elsewhere. That's +1 draft choices.

    If we sign Drew, we don't get that draft choice.

    It may not technically be "losing a draft choice", but it certainly is "not gaining a draft choice". To me, there is little difference between the two ways of looking at it.

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Anyone read or believe this note on Drew?


    Can you ask the same question about Middy? If it wasn't for Middy, would signing Drew to 2-3 years and moving Bogey to 3B be a "no brainer"?

     

    That's a good question that I didn't really think about.  I suppose it would depend on how the Organization views Bogaerts.  If they like him at SS and they think he would be better there than 3B, then I think they would still prefer to let Drew walk and find someone else to play 3B.

    They may think Bogaerts moves to 3B, but do they think that is in a few years? 10 years? or do they think he could play the position better now?

    I'm also trying to think of who they would go out and get to plug in to third base if they were going to let Bogaerts play SS and Drew walk.  If they thought a move to 3rd was going to happen sooner rather than later then I suspect that they would try to work out a deal with Drew and make the move.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Anyone read or believe this note on Drew?

    Also might I add that if we sign Drew, we either have to play Bogaerts or WMB part time or demote one.

    You can't demote one of them to play 3B without taking at-bats away from Garrin Cecchini (that would be dumb) If you demote Xander Bogaerts you make the team worse, assuming that Bogaerts is a far superior player than WMB.

    The only other option would be to stunt eithers growth by giving them less playing time.

    That would also really hurt WMB's development and his trade value....The more and more I think about it, the more I think signing Drew is a bad idea.

     
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