Are the sox a better team this year?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Are the sox a better team this year?

    In response to "Re: Are the sox a better team this year?": [QUOTE]The Sox will need to have good health throughout the year and no serious injuries.   Several players will need to have career years and above all, the 3-4-5 starting pitchers will need to give at least 150 innings otherwise the bullpen becomes overworked. Posted by OnDeckCircle[/QUOTE] You could say that about every team, but at least the Sox are a top 5 team talent wise, so they can overcome more than most teams. They also have the resources to go get someone at the deadline if they need to...
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Are the sox a better team this year?

    False. The bullpen will be weaker, minus Papelbon, but it is quality starter depth that determines pitching effectiveness over the course of a long season.

    I think that if Bard or Aceves stay in the pen, we might be surprised this year. The big three of Paps-Bard-Aceves were pretty awesome last year. Even those three all together this year might not ever be that good at the same time again. 

    It's true that better starting pitching can more than make up for a "weaker pen", and it's hard to imagine this rotation not being able to improve on this:
    (Numbers as starters only)
    Lackey 160 IP  6.41/1.619 WHIP
    Miller     58 IP  5.55/1.800
    Weiland 23 IP  8.72/1.846
    241 IP of awful pitching.
    and...
    Wake     137   5.31/1.398
    Bedard    38   4.03/1.553
    Dice-K     36   4.95/1.404
    Aceves    21   5.14/1.571
    Another 232 innings of not-so-great pitching.

    These awful innings are likely to be replaced by:
    140+ starter IP from Bard
    100 IP more from Buchholtz

    The 232 not-so-great IP will likely be replaced by...
    140+ IP by Aceves (if not in the pen)
    or
    140+ IP by Cook, Padilla, Mortensen, Doubront, Silva, Wilson, or someone else.
    90+ IP more from Dice-K or someone listed above.

    I can't see Bard and Aceves both being starters all season long, but if they are, and do well, we won't need a bullpen as good as last year's. I'm going to assume Aceves stays in the pen. Let's look at 2011 vs 2012 with that in mind:
    2011 (IP Pitcher WHIP/ERA):
    93  Aceves   1.000/2.03
    73 D Bard     0.959/3.33    Melancon
    65 Albers      1.438/4.73
    64 Papelbon 0.933/2.94    Bailey
    49 Wheeler   1.115/4.38    More IP by Morales, Doubront, and Tazawa
    32 Morales    1.268/3.62
    30 Atchison   1.220/3.26
    20 Bowden   1.500/4.05
    17 Wakefield 1.038/3.63
    16 B Jenks     2.234/6.32
    10 Doubront  1.935/6.10
    8  Okajima    1.440/4.32    More IP by Morales, Doubront, and Tazawa
    8  R Williams 1.800/6.48   More IP by Morales, Doubront, and Tazawa
    8  R Hill         0.750/0.00
    7  A Miller     1.950/5.40
    4  Hottovy      1.750/6.75   More IP by Morales, Doubront, and Tazawa
    6 pitchers with 3 or less IP (12 IP 9 ER  6.75 ERA)

    Basically, we need to replace the relief IP in red. Others will have more or less IP depending on health and performance. My guess is the IP will be replaced by the men in blue.

    The pen should not be as good, but perhaps we wont need it to be.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: Are the sox a better team this year?

    Don't ever under estimate the power of having a chip on your shoulder. RS will have something to prove this year.
    Gonzo- will have monster year. knows AL pitchers not coming off surgery. 40+ hrs 120+rbi's mark it down.
    Youk- stay healthy makes lineup so much better
    Pedey- entering prime years, another one a yr away from foot surgery.
    CC- can't be worse than last yr, 1yr in can relax and play ball.
    Jacoby- tough to match last year, but will still put up big numbers.
    Ross/Sweeney will put up better numbers than we got last yr from those positions.
    Bullpen- think it can be as good as last yrs if not better.
    Starters- Key to season. Is this the year we finally stay healthy. New conditioning/medical staffs, new manager/coaches. Guys should be more motivated than yrs past.
    Valentine- finally a team w/ talent. Something he's always wanted. Got 2000 Mets to WS w/ not nearly half the talent this team has, but then again he's in the AL East. But even mgr has something to prove.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Are the sox a better team this year?

    In Response to Re: Are the sox a better team this year?:
    [QUOTE]Don't ever under estimate the power of having a chip on your shoulder. RS will have something to prove this year. Gonzo- will have monster year. knows AL pitchers not coming off surgery. 40+ hrs 120+rbi's mark it down. Youk- stay healthy makes lineup so much better Pedey- entering prime years, another one a yr away from foot surgery. CC- can't be worse than last yr, 1yr in can relax and play ball. Jacoby- tough to match last year, but will still put up big numbers. Ross/Sweeney will put up better numbers than we got last yr from those positions. Bullpen- think it can be as good as last yrs if not better. Starters- Key to season. Is this the year we finally stay healthy. New conditioning/medical staffs, new manager/coaches. Guys should be more motivated than yrs past. Valentine- finally a team w/ talent. Something he's always wanted. Got 2000 Mets to WS w/ not nearly half the talent this team has, but then again he's in the AL East. But even mgr has something to prove.
    Posted by garyhow[/QUOTE]

    Good summary, especially the "chip on the shoulder" part.

     
  5. This post has been removed.

     
  6. This post has been removed.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from GEAUX-TIGRES. Show GEAUX-TIGRES's posts

    Re: Are the sox a better team this year?

    In Response to Are the sox a better team this year?:
    [QUOTE]Does having a manager who hasn't coached in MLB in ten years, make the sox a better team? I doubt papi will do better then last year, so his recent signing does not make the sox better. The sox pretty much have stated that there will no more signings for a while. If this is the team we have on opening day, is it better then last year's team?
    Posted by jackbu[/QUOTE]
    Are we talking better than last year's 'Murderer's Row?' That was one of the most hyped up Beantown media gaffs. That '27 team's OF alone averaged .356 for the season. The entire starting lineup is in the HOF if not mistaken. No. They will not be better than last year's Sox.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Are the sox a better team this year?

    We may end up being better, but still not win more than 90 games, as other teams have improved as well.
     
  9. This post has been removed.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Are the sox a better team this year?

    In response to jackbu's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I guess we know the answer.  I thought Bobby started out as a good coach but eventually the Boston press got to him and he went nuts.

    Ortiz's numbers weren't as good as last year.  Yea I know he was injured but I take the Coach Bill appraoch and say that injuries are part of the game.

    Even with the better shoulder adrian did not hit with a lot power and certainly wasn't clutch.

    Even with his new team, youk still has pretty bad numbers for someone who is looking to cash in a 15 million dollar option for next year.

    [/QUOTE]

    And our pitching crashed and burned. In fact, our pitching has gone downhill since the 2007 season when we were best in the AL..and guess what! We won a ring that year! In beginning in 2008 here is where we placed in the AL in ERA: 4-7-9-9. And now we are 11th in the AL in ERA just .22 runs per game out of last place. Its not by coincidence that the overall record of the club has also crashed. Any rebuilding plan has to place the emphasis squarely on the major problem that was ignored during the second half of the Epstein regime: pitching.

     
  11. This post has been removed.

     
  12. This post has been removed.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Are the sox a better team this year?

    Here's my take last winter on the 2012 team. Although I still thought we needed a top pitcher, I was very optimistic. I do not think this team is as good on paper as last year's team at this time of the year. 

    A lot went wrong last year, and I was way off on many of my projections, so hopefully I will be way off this year to the opposite side...

    Here was what I wrote last year...

     

    My guess is our positional player roster is just about set, so here's my positional projections before ST.

      Preliminary Notes: It is interesting to see that the MLB third base position has fallen so low offensively. It has declined to the point where the MLB catcher position is about even with 3B. SSs & 2Bmen have equal or higher BA and OBP with 3Bmen. LF has also decline to a point where they are outslugged by CF'ers (maybe thanks in large part to Jacoby). Also, RF almost outslugged 1Bmen in 2011.   Stat Notes: I got my stats from fangraphs and baseball reference. Although I weigh OPS as the most important stat, I recognize that OBP is more important to generating runs than Slg%. My numbers are based on no injuries and no call-ups. I am assuming Iggy and Lava are in AAA. I know they will probably get some PAs in MLB this year, but I am keeping it simple here.
      Catcher:  MLB '11: .245/.314/.390/.704 Sox '11: .229/.291/.446/.737   Salty (384) .236  16  56  (.289/.452/.741) VTek (250)  .221  11  36 (.300/.423/.723)   Although the Sox placed 10th in catcher OPS, we were 24th in OBP (5th in Slg%). Our catchers hit 29 HRs (1 away from 2nd place) and had 100 RBIs (2nd in MLB). A pretty productive season overall, even though there was a sharp dip in September. With the departure of VTek (who actually had a higher OBP than Salty), one might expect a decline in overall offense from the catcher position this year.  However, Tito never used a L-R catcher platoon last year, but instead used the personal caddy method. I expect that Bobby V will give Salty the chance to catch everyone and stick more to the L-R methodology. If he does this, we will see better numbers from Salty, since he hits RHPs much better (2011: .247/.304/.481/.786), and better numbers vs LHPs, since Shoppach hits LHPs very well:  (Career: .274/.373/.536/.909).   2012 Projections: Salty (450) .250  20  75  (.310/.490/.800) Shop (200) .250  10  25  (.350/.450/.800) Sox:  (650) .250  30  100 (.325/.475/.800)  +.094   First Base: MLB '11: .263/.338/.439/.778 Sox '11: .329/.402/.541/.944   AGon (715) .338  27  117 (.410/.548/.957)   AGon had a great season, but I expect this year to be even better. We placed 4th in 1B OPS last season. I expect less BA, but more power at 1B this year. I know AGon will not get all the PAs at 1B, but for easier calculations, I will set it up this way. Here' my 2012 projection:   AGon/Sox: (720) .300  45  140  (.410/.590/1.000) +.056   Second base: MLB '11: .255/.316/.378/.694 Sox '11: .308/.388/.474/.862   Pedroia (731) .307  21  91 (.387/.474/.861)   We had the best OPS in MLB at 2B last year. I expect the same in 2012. Go Pedey, Go!   Pedey/Sox: (740) .300  20  100  (.395/.475/.870) +.008   Third Base: MLB '11: .254/.314/.391/.705 Sox '11: .270/.362/.449/.812   Youk (517) .258/.373/.459/.833 Lowrie (133 @ 3B) .275/.326/.433/.759   This is a tough position to call this year. Since I am assuming 100% health, I am going to project a big improvemnet here, but I will not give Youk all the PAs. Youk had seen his OPS improve every season of his career until last year's steep decling. I will put him closer to his 2010 numbers than 2011's:   Youk:   (600) .300  20  100  (.400/.540/.940) Punto: (100) .250     0    15  (.325/.325/.650) Sox:     (700) .290  20  115  (.390/.510/.900) +.088   Short Stop: MLB '11: .258/.314/.370/.684 Sox '11: .279/.330/.401/.730   Scutaro: (445) .299  7  54  (.358/.423/.781) Lowrie (@SS): (187) .238/.278/.360/.639   With the departure of Scooty, this is a tough call. Personally, I'd like to see Iggy as the FT SS, and we'd see a huge drop in SS OPs if we did, but I am going to give Aviles the nod at SS this year with help from Punto (I won't count Iggy). Here are my 2012 SS projections:   Aviles: (550) .290  10  60 (.325/.415/.740) Punto: (100)  .250  0  15 (.325/.325/.650)   Sox: (650) .290  10  75  (.330/.400/.710) -.020   Left Field: MLB '11: .256/.320/.409/.729 Sox '11: .258/.304/.419/.723   Crawford: (538) .255  11  56  (.289/.405/.694) Reddick (63) & DMac (50): .260  4  13  (.330/.490/.820)   I'm expecting CC to return to about somewhere between his career norm and his most recent years in TB. My hope is that Bobby V sits CC vs tough lefties, but I doubt that happens. CC should get his normal rest vs lefties and will miss a few games at the start of the season. It's another tough call, but here it is (I am assuming almost all of DMac's PAs are vs LHPs):   Crawford: (600) .290  12  85  (.350/.460/.810) Dar. Mac: (100) .275     6  15  (.340/.470/.810) Sox LF Total:     .285  18  100  (.345/.465/.800) +.077   Center Field: MLB '11: .261/.325/.406/.731 Sox '11: .316/.371/.548/.918   Ellsbury: (729) .321  32  105  (.376/.552/.928)   I am projecting that Jacoby will come close to his 2011 numbers.   Sox: (770)  .320  30  100  (.380/.530/.910)  -.008   Right Field: MLB '11: .263/.335/.429/.765 Sox '11: .233/.299/.353/.652   Drew (270)  .231  4  22 (.322/.316/.638) Redd (192) .257  3  13  (.302/.374/.676) DMac (86)  .256  4  14  (.314/.487/.801) Cam  (84)  .171   3    8  (.226/.316/.542)   2011 saw a big mix of players in RF. The .652 OPS in RF was 113 points below the league average. Since RF has become one of the best hitting positions in MLb of late, this is totally unacceptable. Many will disagree with Ben on not assigning a top priority status to getting a RH'd slugger RF'er, but I think those posters will be surprised by the steep improvement in our RF production this year. Cody Ross has incredible numbers vs LHPs and not bad numbers vs RHPs as well, and Sweeney does very well vs righties. My guess is that Bobby V will play Ross vs all lefties and about half the RHPs that Ross has a good history against. I know many here do not like or are not familar with successful platoons, but I see this working out nicely for the Sox. Here are some telling numbers: Career: Ross (per 630 PA): .265  23  88  (.323/.456/.779) vs LHP:  .282  38  120  (.349/.563/.912) vs RHP:  .253  18    75  (.313/.414/.727) Sweeney (per 630 PAs) vs RHPs: .296  6  70  (.352/.402/.754)    If we can give Ross 220 PAs vs LHPs and 200 vs RHPs, and give Sweeney 220 vs RHPs and 30 vs LHPs, their overall numbers might look like this: C Ross (420) .270  25  90  (.335/.490/.825) Sween (250) .290    2  35  (.340/.390/.730) Total Sox: (670) .280  27  125  (.335/.440/.775) +.123   Designated Hitter: MLB '11: .268/.342/.431/.773 Sox '11: .308/.394/.531/.925   D Ortiz: (605) .309  29  96  (.398/.554/.953)   Papi turns 47 in November. He put up some nice numbers in 2011, although his RBI total was a bit low for a line-up like the Sox had last year. I'm going to project a drop off in 2012:   Sox: (680)  .275  25  120  (.375/.525/.900) -.025   Overall, it looks like we will see some big gains at some slots, and just a few positions where we stay about even of lose ground: RF: +.123 C:   +.094   3B: +.088 LF: +.077 1B: +.056 2B: +.008 CF: -.008 SS: -.020 DH: -.025   Overall: ~ + .035 in OPS   I realize my numbers are based on some shaky ground, such as no injuries and projected platoon L-R splits, but I do feel like our offense has a strong potential to improve over 2011. RF should easily improve, while guessing that Youk and CC's improvements are a bit more speculative. Losses at SS, DH and CF might be much larger that I showed, but I find it hard to believe our overall OPS will be lower this year than 2011.   If you use the argument of addition by subtraction, we could easily be viewed as the front runner:   Pitchers: (IP) ERA/WHIP Lackey (160) 6.41/1.619 Wake    (155) 5.12/1.358 Miller**  (65) 5.54/1.815 Papelbon (64) 2.94/0.933 Wheeler (49) 4.38/1.115 Bedard   (38) 4.03/1.553 Weiland (25) 7.66/1.662 Jenks** (16) 6.32/2,234 Oki            (8) 4.32/1.440 RWilliams(8) 6.48/1.800 Hottovy   (4) 6.75/1.750 T. Miller    (2) 0.00/0.000 D. Reyes  (2)16.20/2.400    ** Miller & Jenks are still on the roster, but may not see any action this year. Lackey is out all year.   This is about 600 IP gone... most were horrible innings.   These innings could be replaced by this: Buch       83> 173  (+90) 3.48/1.294 Bard        73> 153   (+80) 3.33/0.959 Aceves  114>154   (+40) 2.61/1.105 Dice-K       37>77    (+40) 5.30/1.473 Doubront  10>90   (+80) 6.10/1.935 Morales      32>52  (+20)  3.62/1.268 Tazawa        3>43   (+40)  6.00/1.333 R Hill             8>28   (+20)  0.00/0.750. Beckett     193>203 (+10) 2.89/1.026 Lester        192>202 (+10) 3.47/1.257 Bailey          0 > 55 Melancon    0> 65   My guess is that Doubront and Dice-K will not have such bad ERAs and WHIPs this year, so the replacement of mostly horrible innings by much better pitching looks pretty good.   Now, look at the offense (and defense) lost (PA) OPS: Scoot   445/.781 (Poor D) Lowrie 341/.585 (Poor D) Drew    286/.617 (Very Good D) Redd    278/.784 (Good D) VTek    250/.723 (Poor D) Cam    105/.477  (Good D) Sutt       60/.807  (Poor D) Navarro 40/.626 (Avg D) Jackson 22/.543 (Avg D) That's a total of about 1,800 PAs.  Replace these 1800 PAs with this: Youk 517>617 (+100) .833 OPS Salty 386>486 (+100) .737 Aviles 107>507 (+500) .775 Ross  0> 450    (+450) .779 career, but over .900 vs LHPs Sween 0>350  (+350) .720 career, but over .780 vs RHPs Punto  0> 150 (+150) .652 career Shopp  0>150  (+150) platoon who hits LHPs very well.   I don't think it is being overly optimistic to think we will improve on offense, defense, and pitching by replacing some pretty bad numbers with better possible options.  

     

     
  14. This post has been removed.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Are the sox a better team this year?

    In response to jackbu's comment:

    Thanks moonslav, interesting post by you



    I will do the same analysis and projection this year as I have done for many years, but improving on last year's positional numbers looks easy. However, a lot of improvement is needed in severala reas to be strong contenders.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Are the sox a better team this year?

    "Will they win more games"?  He11 yeah!  Last year's 69-game win total was artificial in a sense because after throwing in the towel and making the Dodger deal they were playing without a complete team for 6 weeks.  They also finished (I think) 5 games under their Pythag win total (i.e. bad luck).  They also had a huge number of games lost (and others no doubt diminished) to injuries that hopefully will not be repeated.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Are the sox a better team this year?

    In response to BOSOX1941's comment:

    It's very difficult for me to not mention the obvious upgrade at manager.


    Feel free to mention it now.

     
  18. This post has been removed.

     
  19. This post has been removed.

     
  20. This post has been removed.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from 56redsox. Show 56redsox's posts

    Re: Are the sox a better team this year?

    In response to LR3683paw's comment:

    You are = You're. Why is that so difficult to grasp. Realy = Really. And  =and. Jrk =jerk.

    Why no response to what was said?  Why only personal insults?




    Fixed It Sorry, Same Results....LOL......

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Are the sox a better team this year?

    In response to LR3683paw's comment:

     

    Do you get NESN? Did you watch the Red Sox Town Hall Meeting on there recently. Ben Cherrington and John Farrell spoke about the team and fielded questions from the audience for an hour. You could probably find answers to your sincere concerns there. I imagine if you were in the audience and had a question that it would concern Papi.



    Sorry, that's absurd.  Do you really think that a millionaire executive of a billion dollar corporation is likely to honestly answer questions from the media? 

     
  23. This post has been removed.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Are the sox a better team this year?

    In response to LR3683paw's comment:

     

    Then who do you listen to or read? Who has the truth? What is the answer? Please enlighten us? We will be waiting for absolute truth. Please provide links and credentials. Do you rely on talk show hosts, blogs, and columnists who are paid to spout opinions without facts? Just tell us who has a monopoly on the truth? We will be waiting. Or does Joe-Sixpack at the corner bar who drives a garbage truck more credible?



    There is no absolute morality....and the best chance at absolute truth is what one thinks about oneself....and that's likely to change over time even if one is honest and accurate to begin with.

    This is primary school stuff.  You wrote "Ben Cherrington and John Farrell spoke about the team and fielded questions from the audience for an hour."

    What's he supposed to do?   Openly give his honest opinion on everything to every journalist?

     
  25. This post has been removed.

     

Share