Pretty optimistic outlook there space. Let me give you my perpective on your observations:
Offensively, Youk makes this line-up tick. His injuries downgraded the offense from Juggernaut to Pretty Darn Good last year. With him healthy back in the middle of the line-up, scaaaaaaary stuff.
Agree that Youk should have a much better year offensively, but he is 33 and a step slower and he is still somewhat a liability at 3rd. Offensive wasn't the problem last year.
Offensively, Youk makes this line-up tick. His injuries downgraded the offense from Juggernaut to Pretty Darn Good last year. With him healthy back in the middle of the line-up, scaaaaaaary stuff.
Agree that Youk should have a much better year offensively, but he is 33 and a step slower and he is still somewhat a liability at 3rd. Offensive wasn't the problem last year.
Gonzo is fully recovered from shoulder surgery. Expect more power to go with his hitting mastery.
Yes, we should see much more power from Agon, but more HRs usually equates to a lower BA. I don't believe there is any way he hits anywhere near .340.
Salty came into his own by midsummer, then crashed due to the unexperienced grind of a full season of duty. I expect him to build on 2011 both offensively and defensively.
Salty started only 60% of the games last year; I would hardly call that a grind. And he is a terrible defensive catcher (way too many PBs and CWPs). I would really like to see Lavarway behind the plate.
Crawford, who knows, but logic says he HAS to be better than last year, I think.
IMO, Crawford is the key to the 2012 season. I agree that he played well below his ability and I think he was just out of his comfort zone. Hopefully, he is the pleyer we know he can be.
Ross/Sweeney - way better than out-to-pasture Drew and still-not-ready-for-prime-time Reddick.
Defensively we don't get any better here, but I think offensively, we should see a big improvement, but the power is only going to come from Ross, so we'll see.
Buchholz - one of the biggest reasons last year fell apart. They were relying on him to do his thing. he got hurt. If he is healthy, gotta figure he is going to be a hoss.
This one has got me worried. Back problems tend to be chronic, and if Buch has the slightest discomfort, he will not be effective. I look for him to be on and off the DL.
Matsuzaka - When he comes back, contract year playing for a Japanese manager. i expect big things
Totally agree here. Always thought this guy was special but the friction between what he wanted to do and what management wanted from him created a less than effective pitcher. BV should help tremendously here.
Potential drop-offs:
Losing Papelbon and Bard at the back end. But, getting Melancon and Bailey is hardly a drop-off, and could turn out to be even better when all is said and done.
Never like Pap, thought he was an arrogant, pompous guy. But he could get the job done when he decided to dial it up. We really don't know what we are getting here. Bailey seems to have the numbers, but like CC, he is now pitching with the big boys.
Losing Scutaro. He is a leader by example. Hard to replace a pro's pro. But Aviles is probably equal offensively, and, if Iggy makes it up, huge D upgrade.
Scutaro is not a good defensive SS but his offense was good enough to keep him there. Frankly, the offensive is not the problem, it's the defense and I think Iglesias should be handed the Keys....the hitting will come.
More or less stays the same:
Ells
Pedey
Ortiz
Aceves
Agree except for Ells, he will not have the power numbers this year because if pitchers are smart, he won't see a lot of pitches middle-in. If that happens, hopefully he adjusts and hits more balls the other way. His average will be over .300, and the OBP should improve, but the HRs and RBIs will be down.
Fun question marks:
Bard - Who knows? Could be a disaster, could be a seriously good fourth starter
Just don't see it. Going from 67 inning to 200 innings is not as much a problem as stamina and leg strength. He will have to brought along gradually, or his carreer could be over.
Back end of rotation as a whole - sure, who knows how 4 and 5 will shake out. But at best, Bard and matsuzaka (when he returns) could be darn good. At worst, hey, its gotta be better than Lackey and (fill in the 2011 blank).
This is the crux of the problem and I think we are heading to 2012 with too many questions marks here. We are not going to get Dice back until June at the earliest. Aceves would be the better choice to start since he has done it, albeit without a lot of success, so he should be #5. which means we still need a 4th guy so out of Padilla, Cook, Silva, or Maine, well.................
So, on the whole, I can foresee many upgrades from 2011 and not many dropoffs. In my thinking, the ledger is tilted towards better, even with the guys that were on the club last year.
Offensively, we are slightly better. Defense and pitching (which wins games) is slightly worse, IMO.
Offensively, we are slightly better. Defense and pitching (which wins games) is slightly worse, IMO.
