I was at the game in Bradenton last spring against the Pirates when Bailey hurt himself covering first base.  Knowing he was the Sox projected closer, I immeadiately thought "this isn't good".  Sure enough, he was out until early August.  When he did come back, the Sox were a mess and out of any contention.  Closer's thrive on adrenaline and save opportunities.  There was neither to be had for him.  He came here as a proven closer but it just didn't happen for him in 2012.  Then the Sox saw a deal for Hanrahan because the Pirates weren't going to be able to afford him.  Appparently they liked Joel better than Andrew.  This doesn't mean that Bailey can't close games any more or doesn't have trade value.

On a side note, I'm glad that I could start a thread that my vote for top 3 posters of the year (Notin, Moon, & Drewski) all commented on.  Good stuff. 

In the last 2 seasons, gutierrez has only played 132 games and has a .596OPS.  The real problem here is - would the Sox want Gutierrez? 

In response to notin's comment:

In the last 2 seasons, gutierrez has only played 132 games and has a .596OPS.  The real problem here is - would the Sox want Gutierrez? 

I would not be surprised if the Mariners tried to trade Franklin Gutierrez to address a specfic need, such as a trade for Dodger lefthander Chris Capuano, whose contract matches up almost perfectly with that of Gutrierrez.

That proposal by Seattle Times columnist Geoff Baker has been met with some approval on a Dodger forum.

And Capuano has been valued at 3.7WAR over the alst 2 years per Fangraphs, while Gutierrez has only accumulated 1.0WAR over that same stretch.  Contracts match up more than performance.  That deal is nothing mroe than journalistic speculation that has also been met with some opposition from Dodger fanbase, particularly on MLBTR.

Trade: Gomes, Salty, Bailey, Doubront, A Miller & Mortensen

For: A Dunn, G Floyd & J Crain

....just kiddin'

In response to moonslav59's comment:

Trade: Gomes, Salty, Bailey, Doubront, A Miller & Mortensen

For: A Dunn, G Floyd & J Crain

....just kiddin'

And that would = a "BLOCKBUSTER" !!!

In response to Bill-806's comment:

In response to moonslav59's comment:

Trade: Gomes, Salty, Bailey, Doubront, A Miller & Mortensen

For: A Dunn, G Floyd & J Crain

....just kiddin'

And that would = a "BLOCKBUSTER" !!!

Thank you for that insightful addition to our discussion Bill.

In response to notin's comment:

And Capuano has been valued at 3.7WAR over the alst 2 years per Fangraphs, while Gutierrez has only accumulated 1.0WAR over that same stretch.  Contracts match up more than performance.  That deal is nothing mroe than journalistic speculation that has also been met with some opposition from Dodger fanbase, particularly on MLBTR.

Indeed it would be unlike the Seattle Mariners to trade-low on Franklin Gutierrez and trade-high on Chris Capuano.

For the benefit of others, here are the comments at MLB Trade Rumors:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/01/quick-hits-headley-.html#disqus_thread

Scroll down.

In response to notin's comment:

It really has to depend on the deal for Bailey.  

If the Sox are rebuilding, then his trade value is important and it makes sense to hold him and see what happens.  But if they can get a player they want to day, the Reddick deal is completely immaterial and "trade value" is no reason to hold him with hoipes something better comes along...

If the Mariners can find anyone to take him at this point, they should probably bite.  And I doubt sny deal fills a need for them, or at least I doubt it fills one very well...

In response to EnchiladaT's comment:

In response to hill55's comment:

In response to cassvt2004's comment:

At the league minimum salary, Seattle has closer Tom Wilhelmsen who last season posted a ERA of 2.50, a WHIP of 1.11 and K/9 of 9.9 in 79.1 innings. The tall righthander held opponents to a .202/.277/.301/.578 line. The Mariners, who have closers-in-waiting in Stephen Pryor and Carter Capps, could fetch a better return for Wilhelmsen than the Red Sox could land for Andrew Bailey.

The Mariners would have no interest in an injury-prone reliever with a 2013 salary of $4.1 million ... few teams would want Andrew Bailey at that price.

I would not trade the deep Mariner bullpen for the Red Sox bullpen.

Heck dude could you be any more morbid... such a downer. I am gonna call pike to issue a warning to you.

Ench, 

What is so morbid about his post. He's just giving us a therough assessment of the two bullpens and his honest point of view. 

Hetch

In response to notin's comment:

If the Mariners can find anyone to take him at this point, they should probably bite.  And I doubt sny deal fills a need for them, or at least I doubt it fills one very well...

Andre Ethier has posted a career .238/.296/.352/.649 line against lefthanded pitching while Franklin Gutierrez has posted a career .293/.351/.479/.830 line against southpaws.

In response to cassvt2004's comment:

I was at the game in Bradenton last spring against the Pirates when Bailey hurt himself covering first base.  Knowing he was the Sox projected closer, I immeadiately thought "this isn't good".  Sure enough, he was out until early August.  When he did come back, the Sox were a mess and out of any contention.  Closer's thrive on adrenaline and save opportunities.  There was neither to be had for him.  He came here as a proven closer but it just didn't happen for him in 2012.  Then the Sox saw a deal for Hanrahan because the Pirates weren't going to be able to afford him.  Appparently they liked Joel better than Andrew.  This doesn't mean that Bailey can't close games any more or doesn't have trade value.

On a side note, I'm glad that I could start a thread that my vote for top 3 posters of the year (Notin, Moon, & Drewski) all commented on.  Good stuff. 

The deal for Hanrahan was alo made with the possibility that, if the season unfolds poorly, Hanrahan, and not Bailey, is the reliever moved in July.  He is a free agent after 2013 anyway, and there are always one or two teams looking for closers in July, and EVERYONE who still thinks they are in it is shopping for releivers...

In response to notin's comment:

In response to cassvt2004's comment:

I was at the game in Bradenton last spring against the Pirates when Bailey hurt himself covering first base.  Knowing he was the Sox projected closer, I immeadiately thought "this isn't good".  Sure enough, he was out until early August.  When he did come back, the Sox were a mess and out of any contention.  Closer's thrive on adrenaline and save opportunities.  There was neither to be had for him.  He came here as a proven closer but it just didn't happen for him in 2012.  Then the Sox saw a deal for Hanrahan because the Pirates weren't going to be able to afford him.  Appparently they liked Joel better than Andrew.  This doesn't mean that Bailey can't close games any more or doesn't have trade value.

On a side note, I'm glad that I could start a thread that my vote for top 3 posters of the year (Notin, Moon, & Drewski) all commented on.  Good stuff. 

The deal for Hanrahan was alo made with the possibility that, if the season unfolds poorly, Hanrahan, and not Bailey, is the reliever moved in July.  He is a free agent after 2013 anyway, and there are always one or two teams looking for closers in July, and EVERYONE who still thinks they are in it is shopping for releivers...

As such (a FA after 2013), I doubt we would get much for Hanrahan anyway in July.

In response to notin's comment:

If the Mariners can find anyone to take him at this point, they should probably bite.  And I doubt sny deal fills a need for them, or at least I doubt it fills one very well...

Andre Ethier has posted a career .238/.296/.352/.649 line against lefthanded pitching while Franklin Gutierrez has posted a career .293/.351/.479/.830 line against southpaws.

So you are saying that teams will want Franklin Gutierrez based on a career numbers but Andy Bailey is untradable based on last year.  Got it...

In response to cassvt2004's comment:

At the league minimum salary, Seattle has closer Tom Wilhelmsen who last season posted a ERA of 2.50, a WHIP of 1.11 and K/9 of 9.9 in 79.1 innings. The tall righthander held opponents to a .202/.277/.301/.578 line. The Mariners, who have closers-in-waiting in Stephen Pryor and Carter Capps, could fetch a better return for Wilhelmsen than the Red Sox could land for Andrew Bailey.

The Mariners would have no interest in an injury-prone reliever with a 2013 salary of $4.1 million ... few teams would want Andrew Bailey at that price.

I would not trade the deep Mariner bullpen for the Red Sox bullpen.

In response to cassvt2004's comment:

At the league minimum salary, Seattle has closer Tom Wilhelmsen who last season posted a ERA of 2.50, a WHIP of 1.11 and K/9 of 9.9 in 79.1 innings. The tall righthander held opponents to a .202/.277/.301/.578 line. The Mariners, who have closers-in-waiting in Stephen Pryor and Carter Capps, could fetch a better return for Wilhelmsen than the Red Sox could land for Andrew Bailey.

The Mariners would have no interest in an injury-prone reliever with a 2013 salary of $4.1 million ... few teams would want Andrew Bailey at that price.

I would not trade the deep Mariner bullpen for the Red Sox bullpen.

Nobody wants Tom Wilhelmsen.  He had 80 good innings, but was shelled at AA in 2011, facing batters seven years younger.  He's the same age as Bailey, and Bailey has been much better for much longer - 15 bad innings in 2012 does not erase the fact that he was pitching all-star games while Wilhemlsen was bar-tending and serving a drug suspension.  Get real.

In response to slomag's comment:

In response to cassvt2004's comment:

At the league minimum salary, Seattle has closer Tom Wilhelmsen who last season posted a ERA of 2.50, a WHIP of 1.11 and K/9 of 9.9 in 79.1 innings. The tall righthander held opponents to a .202/.277/.301/.578 line. The Mariners, who have closers-in-waiting in Stephen Pryor and Carter Capps, could fetch a better return for Wilhelmsen than the Red Sox could land for Andrew Bailey.

The Mariners would have no interest in an injury-prone reliever with a 2013 salary of $4.1 million ... few teams would want Andrew Bailey at that price.

I would not trade the deep Mariner bullpen for the Red Sox bullpen.

Nobody wants Tom Wilhelmsen.  He had 80 good innings, but was shelled at AA in 2011, facing batters seven years younger.  He's the same age as Bailey, and Bailey has been much better for much longer - 15 bad innings in 2012 does not erase the fact that he was pitching all-star games while Wilhemlsen was bar-tending and serving a drug suspension.  Get real.

It's five years of Tom Wilhelmsen, two at the league minimum salary, versus two years of Andrew Bailey building off a 2013 salary of $4.1 million. Only once, way back in 2009, did Bailey exceed Wilhelmsen's 2012 WAR of 1.5.

That's the reality.

In response to hill55's comment:

In response to slomag's comment:

In response to cassvt2004's comment:

At the league minimum salary, Seattle has closer Tom Wilhelmsen who last season posted a ERA of 2.50, a WHIP of 1.11 and K/9 of 9.9 in 79.1 innings. The tall righthander held opponents to a .202/.277/.301/.578 line. The Mariners, who have closers-in-waiting in Stephen Pryor and Carter Capps, could fetch a better return for Wilhelmsen than the Red Sox could land for Andrew Bailey.

The Mariners would have no interest in an injury-prone reliever with a 2013 salary of $4.1 million ... few teams would want Andrew Bailey at that price.

I would not trade the deep Mariner bullpen for the Red Sox bullpen.

Nobody wants Tom Wilhelmsen.  He had 80 good innings, but was shelled at AA in 2011, facing batters seven years younger.  He's the same age as Bailey, and Bailey has been much better for much longer - 15 bad innings in 2012 does not erase the fact that he was pitching all-star games while Wilhemlsen was bar-tending and serving a drug suspension.  Get real.

It's five years of Tom Wilhelmsen, two at the league minimum salary, versus two years of Andrew Bailey building off a 2013 salary of $4.1 million. Only once, way back in 2009, did Bailey exceed Wilhelmsen's 2012 WAR of 1.5.

That's the reality.

That is assuming the career of Tom Wilhelmson will even last 5 more years.  He is not exactly a bastion of stability.  Aaron Small still has years of control left and a small salary too.  And yet his phone never rang either...