1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    Coolstandings doesn't 'overrate' anybody.  It's not based on opinion.  It uses mathematical calculations based on run differential, strength of schedule etc.

    Mathematical formulas's can't overrate?  Even if it's objective it can overrate or underrate re  baseball or other projections.

    Of course they can overrate. They can fail to include important factors-injuries, remaining home games, when players may return from injuries (or are they out for the season), depth of starting pitching etc etc Bob knows better. I think he made a mistake.

     

    Pumpsie, you said they 'consistently overrate the Red Sox chances'.  To me there was a clear implication that their ratings were subjective and that there was some opinion involved.  All I'm saying is that they use the same formula for all the teams so in that sense it's objective.  I'm certainly not saying that their ratings are reliable.

    No predictions of future baseball results are reliable.  

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    Coolstandings doesn't 'overrate' anybody.  It's not based on opinion.  It uses mathematical calculations based on run differential, strength of schedule etc.

    Mathematical formulas's can't overrate?  Even if it's objective it can overrate or underrate re  baseball or other projections.

    Of course they can overrate. They can fail to include important factors-injuries, remaining home games, when players may return from injuries (or are they out for the season), depth of starting pitching etc etc Bob knows better. I think he made a mistake.

     



    Pumpsie, you said they 'consistently overrate the Red Sox chances'.  To me there was a clear implication that their ratings were subjective and that there was some opinion involved.  All I'm saying is that they use the same formula for all the teams so in that since it's objective.  I'm certainly not saying that their ratings are reliable.

     

    No predictions of future baseball results are reliable. 

     

     

     



    I realize that their predictions are based on some calculated model. Do you know what it is? I fully realize that none of it is opinion. I also think that their probability number for the Red Sox is too high.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    I realize that their predictions are based on some calculated model. Do you know what it is? I fully realize that none of it is opinion. I also think that their probability number for the Red Sox is too high.

     

     

    Here's the general explanation.  They run millions of simulations using the data for the year to date plus the remaining schedules.  They rely a lot on run differential being a measure of team strength.

    http://www.coolstandings.com/welcome.asp

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from kannaman. Show kannaman's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    Coolstandings doesn't 'overrate' anybody.  It's not based on opinion.  It uses mathematical calculations based on run differential, strength of schedule etc.

    Mathematical formulas's can't overrate?  Even if it's objective it can overrate or underrate re  baseball or other projections.

    Of course they can overrate. They can fail to include important factors-injuries, remaining home games, when players may return from injuries (or are they out for the season), depth of starting pitching etc etc Bob knows better. I think he made a mistake.

     

    Pumpsie, you said they 'consistently overrate the Red Sox chances'.  To me there was a clear implication that their ratings were subjective and that there was some opinion involved.  All I'm saying is that they use the same formula for all the teams so in that sense it's objective.  I'm certainly not saying that their ratings are reliable.

    No predictions of future baseball results are reliable.  




    Especially Pumpsie's.

     
  5. This post has been removed.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    Well, it sure was fun, wasn't it? Most of us were just giddy over the great start this team had in April. We were even in first place for a while. But now our annual migration to the cellar has begun in earnest again, this year a little earlier than most. Unfortunately all the other ALE teams are more talented than the Red Sox are. Why are we headed south again? Same reason the Bankees are in first place: PITCHING. As of this morning our team ERA is in NINTH place in the AL; the Bankees are in SECOND place. The Orioles have better pitching than we do, and they are ahead of us in the standings. The Rays will soon be better than us both in ERA and in the standings, and the Jays are beginning to make their move too. Its not the hitting, contrary to what some here might believe: we are THIRD in OPS in the AL, and the Bankees are in SEVENTH in OPS. Why are they leaving us in the dust-AGAIN? One word: PITCHING.



    Hey Pumpsie, the Red Sox are now tied for 2nd in the AL in ERA.  Can you believe that? Laughing

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from jimdavis. Show jimdavis's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    that was the point of my post PG. I knew you were having some fun, and so was I ;) see you tonight at the "frat house"

    Except that I don't think he was just having fun.  I think he just wanted to be the first one off the bus, just so in case we failed, he could say he was the first one off the bus.  And now that the bus is continuing its ride down the highway, he hedging his bet.  Kind of a passive-aggressive thing.

     



    I am sticking to my prediction of about 81 wins this year, but obviously I am hopeful for more. I would be only too happy to eat some crow if we make the playoffs. I will also say that the "experts", prior to the season, did not rank the Red Sox as a likely playoff team either. I agreed with them, and despite the fact that its now June and we are still in first place, I have not changed my mind at all. I think we are one key injury to our main contributors on the pitching staff away from oblivion.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Which team isn't one key injury away from a main contributor on the pitching staff to oblivion?  This is crazy talk. Do you really think this team is going to go 46-58 the rest of the way?  This isn't 2011.  It might just be time for you to accept the fact that the Sox are pretty good.  Because of the tough division, 90 wins probably takes the division.  I say they get there.  Have some freaking faith.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThefourBs. Show ThefourBs's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    Coolstandings doesn't 'overrate' anybody.  It's not based on opinion.  It uses mathematical calculations based on run differential, strength of schedule etc.

    Mathematical formulas's can't overrate?  Even if it's objective it can overrate or underrate re  baseball or other projections.

    Of course they can overrate. They can fail to include important factors-injuries, remaining home games, when players may return from injuries (or are they out for the season), depth of starting pitching etc etc Bob knows better. I think he made a mistake.

     



    Pumpsie, you said they 'consistently overrate the Red Sox chances'.  To me there was a clear implication that their ratings were subjective and that there was some opinion involved.  All I'm saying is that they use the same formula for all the teams so in that since it's objective.  I'm certainly not saying that their ratings are reliable.

     

    No predictions of future baseball results are reliable. 

     

     

     

     



    I realize that their predictions are based on some calculated model. Do you know what it is? I fully realize that none of it is opinion. I also think that their probability number for the Red Sox is too high.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    You used to quote Coolstandings all the time, when it suited you.

    NOW, they're unreliable? LOL

     
  9. This post has been removed.

     
  10. This post has been removed.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     


    I am sticking to my prediction of about 81 wins this year, but obviously I am hopeful for more. I would be only too happy to eat some crow if we make the playoffs. I will also say that the "experts", prior to the season, did not rank the Red Sox as a likely playoff team either. I agreed with them, and despite the fact that its now June and we are still in first place, I have not changed my mind at all. I think we are one key injury to our main contributors on the pitching staff away from oblivion.

     

     

    You'll be happy to know that your favorite site, Coolstandings, has the Sox playoff chances at 76.5% and the chances of winning the division at 52.4%.  It also has the Sox expected wins at 95.9.

     

     




    I think they consistently overrate the Red Sox chances. They also show the Rays with a better chance of making the playoffs than the Yankees, and the Indians with a better chance than either of those two.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    When you used to tout Coolstandings all the time, I told you the formulas were way too simplistic.  So now that the same website you used to love aligns with us, you don't like it anymore?

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:

    You used to quote Coolstandings all the time, when it suited you.

     

    NOW, they're unreliable? LOL



    Thank you.

    I've had many a debate with Pumpsie about Coolstandings' predictions.  

    Coolstandings bases its predictions almost solely on run differential, as hfx pointed out.  Not that any prediction system is fool proof, but IMO, one like the Playoff Odds at Baseball Propectus gives a much more detailed analysis.

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    When you used to tout Coolstandings all the time, I told you the formulas were way too simplistic.  So now that the same website you used to love aligns with us, you don't like it anymore?

    LOL, thank you too JoeyB.

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    I am sticking to my prediction of about 81 wins this year, but obviously I am hopeful for more.

     

    So, you are basically projecting 48-59 the rest of the way.

     




    I think we are going to hit the skids in August and Sept. I am sticking to what BOTH of us thought at the beginning of the season.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    So you were serious.

    Then you were only half kidding.

    Then when I pointed out that there was no way you were kidding, you were serious again?

    I'm suspicious of people that refuse to change their minds.  But changing your rmind 3 times in a couple of days is a bit much.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    You used to quote Coolstandings all the time, when it suited you.

     

    NOW, they're unreliable? LOL

     



    Thank you.

     

    I've had many a debate with Pumpsie about Coolstandings' predictions.  

    Coolstandings bases its predictions almost solely on run differential, as hfx pointed out.  Not that any prediction system is fool proof, but IMO, one like the Playoff Odds at Baseball Propectus gives a much more detailed analysis.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    If it was easy to predict, they would tell no one and get rich.  Like I told Pumpsie, back when Coolstandings was his friend, you absolutely cannot use run differential this early in the season. A one game loss 12-0 leverags up too quickly.  You need your original run differential, adjust to current circumstances, predict the remaining games, and add to the current total.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from fizsh. Show fizsh's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    Still sticking with my original prediction of 85-90 wins and contending for the division.  What I am not sticking with is that the Blue Jays will be the team they are battling with.

     

    If a manager doesn't have confidence in his ball players, even when they're going badly, they're not going to have confidence in themselves. And when a ballplayer's confidence is gone, you haven't got a ballplayer - Birdie Tebbetts

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    You used to quote Coolstandings all the time, when it suited you.

     

    NOW, they're unreliable? LOL

     



    Thank you.

     

    I've had many a debate with Pumpsie about Coolstandings' predictions.  

    Coolstandings bases its predictions almost solely on run differential, as hfx pointed out.  Not that any prediction system is fool proof, but IMO, one like the Playoff Odds at Baseball Propectus gives a much more detailed analysis.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    According to the description of how it does the calculations its based on strength of remaining opponents as well as run differential. Today Coolstandings predicts a 77.8% chance of the Red Sox making the playoffs. I think that is an overestimation, given the parity in the ALE. The Rays, who are tied with the Yankees, have nearly a 25% higher probability of making the playoffs than the Yankees. Is that accurate? I never said Coolstandings was accurate, but I did quote them as a reference frequently. There is, as HFX stated, no model that can accurately predict who will or will not make the playoffs with total accuracy. When some folks were still irrationally exuberant about our chances I used Coolstandings' calculations as a reference point to chill that giddiness-but never claimed Coolstandings was totally accurate. Its like predicting the weather in New England: its an educated guess.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    Here's what we have left:

    @TBR 6/ TB 7

    @NYY 4/ NYY 9

    @TOR 3/ TOR 7

    @BAL 10/ BAL 6

    @DET 4/ DET 3

    Tex 3

    @LAA 3/ LAA 3

    @SEA 4/SEA 3

    @OAK 3

    @ SF  3

    @CWS 3

    @LAD 3

    @KCR 4

    @HOU 3

    SDP 3

    ARI  3

    @COL 2/ COL 2

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    As inexact a science as Coolstanding is, their predictions will get better as the season progresses.  But at least they have something they can hang their hat on. 

    You apparently just eyeball them and make a WAG. 

    Having the right to do something doesn't make it the right thing to do.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThefourBs. Show ThefourBs's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    You used to quote Coolstandings all the time, when it suited you.

     

    NOW, they're unreliable? LOL

     

     



    Thank you.

     

     

    I've had many a debate with Pumpsie about Coolstandings' predictions.  

    Coolstandings bases its predictions almost solely on run differential, as hfx pointed out.  Not that any prediction system is fool proof, but IMO, one like the Playoff Odds at Baseball Propectus gives a much more detailed analysis.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    According to the description of how it does the calculations its based on strength of remaining opponents as well as run differential. Today Coolstandings predicts a 77.8% chance of the Red Sox making the playoffs. I think that is an overestimation, given the parity in the ALE. The Rays, who are tied with the Yankees, have nearly a 25% higher probability of making the playoffs than the Yankees. Is that accurate? I never said Coolstandings was accurate, but I did quote them as a reference frequently. There is, as HFX stated, no model that can accurately predict who will or will not make the playoffs with total accuracy. When some folks were still irrationally exuberant about our chances I used Coolstandings' calculations as a reference point to chill that giddiness-but never claimed Coolstandings was totally accurate. Its like predicting the weather in New England: its an educated guess.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Can't have any of that "irrational exuberance" in the fan base!

    Irrational negativity is ok, but nix that exuberance!

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    The Rays, who are tied with the Yankees, have nearly a 25% higher probability of making the playoffs than the Yankees. Is that accurate?

    Of course it is not accurate.  Why you ever believed it in the first place is a mystery.  FWIW, when someone explains to you when you're wrong, and why you're wrong, it's always better to correct yourself, at that point.  Still, it took you only two years to come around to my POV.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    The Rays, who are tied with the Yankees, have nearly a 25% higher probability of making the playoffs than the Yankees. Is that accurate?

    Of course it is not accurate.  Why you ever believed it in the first place is a mystery.  FWIW, when someone explains to you when you're wrong, and why you're wrong, it's always better to correct yourself, at that point.  Still, it took you only two years to come around to my POV.



    LOL....you have rarely, if ever, taught me much of anything about baseball Joe. When you get finished patting yourself on your back, try to reread what I wrote today. I said that Coolstandings is something like predicting the weather in New England. If they call for rain, then there is probably a decent chance of rain. Its not 100%, but its better than a wild guess concocted out of a desire for fair weather.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:


    According to the description of how it does the calculations its based on strength of remaining opponents as well as run differential. Today Coolstandings predicts a 77.8% chance of the Red Sox making the playoffs. I think that is an overestimation, given the parity in the ALE. The Rays, who are tied with the Yankees, have nearly a 25% higher probability of making the playoffs than the Yankees. Is that accurate? I never said Coolstandings was accurate, but I did quote them as a reference frequently. There is, as HFX stated, no model that can accurately predict who will or will not make the playoffs with total accuracy. When some folks were still irrationally exuberant about our chances I used Coolstandings' calculations as a reference point to chill that giddiness-but never claimed Coolstandings was totally accurate. Its like predicting the weather in New England: its an educated guess.



    The "strength" of the remaining opponents is based on their run differentials. Coolstandings does not input any stats of individual players. While run differential can be a good predictor of future performance, it is not particularly accurate early in the season.

    The reason why the Rays have a 25% better chance of making the playoffs than the Yankees is because their run differential is 25 runs better than the Yankees.

    No, it doesn't sound very accurate. This is what we've been telling you the past when you've been trying to cool our "irrational exuberance" in May.

    FYI, BP, which is far more comprehensive than Coolstandings,  has the Red Sox chances of making the playoffs at 72.7%, getting to the division series at 58.4%, and their expected wins at 89.   Again, these predictions should all be taken with a grain of salt, but this sounds more reasonable, doesn't it?

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    LOL....you have rarely, if ever, taught me much of anything about baseball Joe. When you get finished patting yourself on your back, try to reread what I wrote today. I said that Coolstandings is something like predicting the weather in New England. If they call for rain, then there is probably a decent chance of rain. Its not 100%, but its better than a wild guess concocted out of a desire for fair weather.



    You should try listening to JoeyB.  The man knows his stuff.

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    Pumpsie, your whole point in the original post was that our pitching wasn't good enough and you based this on the ERA standings.  Now they've climbed up near the top of the ERA standings you have nothing to say about it.  Let me guess why - you don't even have to say it - it's because you doubt they can keep it up.  I know you too well.

     

Share