Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season
posted at 6/3/2013 8:39 PM EDT
In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:
In response to ThefourBs' comment:
You used to quote Coolstandings all the time, when it suited you.
NOW, they're unreliable? LOL
I've had many a debate with Pumpsie about Coolstandings' predictions.
Coolstandings bases its predictions almost solely on run differential, as hfx pointed out. Not that any prediction system is fool proof, but IMO, one like the Playoff Odds at Baseball Propectus gives a much more detailed analysis.
According to the description of how it does the calculations its based on strength of remaining opponents as well as run differential. Today Coolstandings predicts a 77.8% chance of the Red Sox making the playoffs. I think that is an overestimation, given the parity in the ALE. The Rays, who are tied with the Yankees, have nearly a 25% higher probability of making the playoffs than the Yankees. Is that accurate? I never said Coolstandings was accurate, but I did quote them as a reference frequently. There is, as HFX stated, no model that can accurately predict who will or will not make the playoffs with total accuracy. When some folks were still irrationally exuberant about our chances I used Coolstandings' calculations as a reference point to chill that giddiness-but never claimed Coolstandings was totally accurate. Its like predicting the weather in New England: its an educated guess.
Can't have any of that "irrational exuberance" in the fan base!
Irrational negativity is ok, but nix that exuberance!