1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

FYI, BP, which is far more comprehensive than Coolstandings,  has the Red Sox chances of making the playoffs at 72.7%, getting to the division series at 58.4%, and their expected wins at 89.   Again, these predictions should all be taken with a grain of salt, but this sounds more reasonable, doesn't it?

The problem is that Pumpsie has already he can't use BP since they favored us once.

He needs to create his own model, to see how the numbers accumulate.  Predict 10 players OPS' on offense, with the bench being the 10th player.  Predict OPSa for 8 pitchers, with the BP being 6/7/8.  OPS^1.83/(OPS^1.83+ OPSa ^ 183) * 162 is your win total for the year.

The math is easy.  The challenge is the cognitive disonance you encounter when the numbers tell you something you don't want to hear.

2. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

In response to Joebreidey's comment:

FYI, BP, which is far more comprehensive than Coolstandings,  has the Red Sox chances of making the playoffs at 72.7%, getting to the division series at 58.4%, and their expected wins at 89.   Again, these predictions should all be taken with a grain of salt, but this sounds more reasonable, doesn't it?

The problem is that Pumpsie has already he can't use BP since they favored us once.

He needs to create his own model, to see how the numbers accumulate.  Predict 10 players OPS' on offense, with the bench being the 10th player.  Predict OPSa for 8 pitchers, with the BP being 6/7/8.  OPS^1.83/(OPS^1.83+ OPSa ^ 183) * 162 is your win total for the year.

The math is easy.  The challenge is the cognitive disonance you encounter when the numbers tell you something you don't want to hear.

You got a model that accurately predicts baseball results? If not, it lies in the realm of opinion. You got yours; I got mine.

3. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

LOL....you have rarely, if ever, taught me much of anything about baseball Joe. When you get finished patting yourself on your back, try to reread what I wrote today. I said that Coolstandings is something like predicting the weather in New England. If they call for rain, then there is probably a decent chance of rain. Its not 100%, but its better than a wild guess concocted out of a desire for fair weather.

You should try listening to JoeyB.  The man knows his stuff.

Kimmi, Joe has his opinions and uses the stats to support what he thinks is true. The same it is true for me. Your opinions align more with his, which is fine. I do not believe Joe B is any more knowledgeable a baseball fan than the average poster here. Feel free to disagree.

4. This post has been removed.

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Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

LOL....you have rarely, if ever, taught me much of anything about baseball Joe. When you get finished patting yourself on your back, try to reread what I wrote today. I said that Coolstandings is something like predicting the weather in New England. If they call for rain, then there is probably a decent chance of rain. Its not 100%, but its better than a wild guess concocted out of a desire for fair weather.

You should try listening to JoeyB.  The man knows his stuff.

Kimmi, Joe has his opinions and uses the stats to support what he thinks is true. The same it is true for me. Your opinions align more with his, which is fine. I do not believe Joe B is any more knowledgeable a baseball fan than the average poster here. Feel free to disagree.

The difference is, Joe doesn't trash stats, after using them over and over, when he realizes they no longer support what he wants to believe.

I do not believe Joe B is any more knowledgeable a baseball fan than the average poster here.

You're missing an opportunity to learn something.

6. This post has been removed.

7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

Well, it sure was fun, wasn't it? Most of us were just giddy over the great start this team had in April. We were even in first place for a while. But now our annual migration to the cellar has begun in earnest again, this year a little earlier than most. Unfortunately all the other ALE teams are more talented than the Red Sox are. Why are we headed south again? Same reason the Bankees are in first place: PITCHING. As of this morning our team ERA is in NINTH place in the AL; the Bankees are in SECOND place. The Orioles have better pitching than we do, and they are ahead of us in the standings. The Rays will soon be better than us both in ERA and in the standings, and the Jays are beginning to make their move too. Its not the hitting, contrary to what some here might believe: we are THIRD in OPS in the AL, and the Bankees are in SEVENTH in OPS. Why are they leaving us in the dust-AGAIN? One word: PITCHING.

The first post.

Sox4ever

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Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

Please sir, may I be the first to surrender?

Mandolin player and reluctant admirer of the New York Yankees

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Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

In response to carnie's comment:

Please sir, may I be the first to surrender?

Mandolin player and reluctant admirer of the New York Yankees

hey Carn!!..good to see you..

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Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

In response to ThefourBs' comment:

In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

LOL....you have rarely, if ever, taught me much of anything about baseball Joe. When you get finished patting yourself on your back, try to reread what I wrote today. I said that Coolstandings is something like predicting the weather in New England. If they call for rain, then there is probably a decent chance of rain. Its not 100%, but its better than a wild guess concocted out of a desire for fair weather.

You should try listening to JoeyB.  The man knows his stuff.

Kimmi, Joe has his opinions and uses the stats to support what he thinks is true. The same it is true for me. Your opinions align more with his, which is fine. I do not believe Joe B is any more knowledgeable a baseball fan than the average poster here. Feel free to disagree.

The difference is, Joe doesn't trash stats, after using them over and over, when he realizes they no longer support what he wants to believe.

I do not believe Joe B is any more knowledgeable a baseball fan than the average poster here.

You're missing an opportunity to learn something.

Like History:  the whole Germans and Pearl harbor thing

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Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:

In response to ThefourBs' comment:

In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

Kimmi, Joe has his opinions and uses the stats to support what he thinks is true. The same it is true for me. Your opinions align more with his, which is fine. I do not believe Joe B is any more knowledgeable a baseball fan than the average poster here. Feel free to disagree.

The difference is, Joe doesn't trash stats, after using them over and over, when he realizes they no longer support what he wants to believe.

I do not believe Joe B is any more knowledgeable a baseball fan than the average poster here.

You're missing an opportunity to learn something.

Like History:  the whole Germans and Pearl harbor thing

Exactly!

• You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

In response to moonslav59's comment:

Well, it sure was fun, wasn't it? Most of us were just giddy over the great start this team had in April. We were even in first place for a while. But now our annual migration to the cellar has begun in earnest again, this year a little earlier than most. Unfortunately all the other ALE teams are more talented than the Red Sox are. Why are we headed south again? Same reason the Bankees are in first place: PITCHING. As of this morning our team ERA is in NINTH place in the AL; the Bankees are in SECOND place. The Orioles have better pitching than we do, and they are ahead of us in the standings. The Rays will soon be better than us both in ERA and in the standings, and the Jays are beginning to make their move too. Its not the hitting, contrary to what some here might believe: we are THIRD in OPS in the AL, and the Bankees are in SEVENTH in OPS. Why are they leaving us in the dust-AGAIN? One word: PITCHING.

The first post.

Sox4ever

It should be noted that he said BA had better pitching than us, when we actually more than a full run better.  BA has some hitting, but their rotation is among the worst in BB.  And the BJ's rotation is the worst in the league, despite making their move.

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Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

In response to Joebreidey's comment:

FYI, BP, which is far more comprehensive than Coolstandings,  has the Red Sox chances of making the playoffs at 72.7%, getting to the division series at 58.4%, and their expected wins at 89.   Again, these predictions should all be taken with a grain of salt, but this sounds more reasonable, doesn't it?

The problem is that Pumpsie has already he can't use BP since they favored us once.

He needs to create his own model, to see how the numbers accumulate.  Predict 10 players OPS' on offense, with the bench being the 10th player.  Predict OPSa for 8 pitchers, with the BP being 6/7/8.  OPS^1.83/(OPS^1.83+ OPSa ^ 183) * 162 is your win total for the year.

The math is easy.  The challenge is the cognitive disonance you encounter when the numbers tell you something you don't want to hear.

You got a model that accurately predicts baseball results? If not, it lies in the realm of opinion. You got yours; I got mine.

Not really.  Saying that we each have opinions is not akin to making them equal.  I have an opinion on how to treat a sprained ankle.  And you have your opinion.  But since you have an advanced medical degree, and I don't, our two opinions are not equal.

It's a popular thing to say 'I'm entitled to my opinion', but if the subject is great reefs for scuba diving, I am not entitled to an opinion, since I don't have the first clue.

• You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

In response to Joebreidey's comment:

In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

In response to Joebreidey's comment:

FYI, BP, which is far more comprehensive than Coolstandings,  has the Red Sox chances of making the playoffs at 72.7%, getting to the division series at 58.4%, and their expected wins at 89.   Again, these predictions should all be taken with a grain of salt, but this sounds more reasonable, doesn't it?

The problem is that Pumpsie has already he can't use BP since they favored us once.

He needs to create his own model, to see how the numbers accumulate.  Predict 10 players OPS' on offense, with the bench being the 10th player.  Predict OPSa for 8 pitchers, with the BP being 6/7/8.  OPS^1.83/(OPS^1.83+ OPSa ^ 183) * 162 is your win total for the year.

The math is easy.  The challenge is the cognitive disonance you encounter when the numbers tell you something you don't want to hear.

You got a model that accurately predicts baseball results? If not, it lies in the realm of opinion. You got yours; I got mine.

Not really.  Saying that we each have opinions is not akin to making them equal.  I have an opinion on how to treat a sprained ankle.  And you have your opinion.  But since you have an advanced medical degree, and I don't, our two opinions are not equal.

It's a popular thing to say 'I'm entitled to my opinion', but if the subject is great reefs for scuba diving, I am not entitled to an opinion, since I don't have the first clue.

Great! Tell me what your model for accurately predicting wins and losses is! Your opinion about which model to use is EQUAL to my own, since there is no correct model, unlike how to treat a sprained ankle. You fail to understand the difference in a sound model and an educated opinion, the latter of which both of us have about how to predict wins and losses. To think otherwise is.....arrogant IMO.

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Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

Great! Tell me what your model for accurately predicting wins and losses is! Your opinion about which model to use is EQUAL to my own, since there is no correct model, unlike how to treat a sprained ankle. You fail to understand the difference in a sound model and an educated opinion, the latter of which both of us have about how to predict wins and losses. To think otherwise is.....arrogant IMO.

I already explained it.  It isn't particularly difficult to understand.  There is more to it, if you were inclined to do additional risk assessments based on age, injury history, minor league depth, available money, inclination to trade or keep prospects, etc.  But since you are not inclined to take even a rudimentry scientific approach, there seems little reason to introduce you to the more in-depth approach.

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Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

In response to Joebreidey's comment:

Great! Tell me what your model for accurately predicting wins and losses is! Your opinion about which model to use is EQUAL to my own, since there is no correct model, unlike how to treat a sprained ankle. You fail to understand the difference in a sound model and an educated opinion, the latter of which both of us have about how to predict wins and losses. To think otherwise is.....arrogant IMO.

I already explained it.  It isn't particularly difficult to understand.  There is more to it, if you were inclined to do additional risk assessments based on age, injury history, minor league depth, available money, inclination to trade or keep prospects, etc.  But since you are not inclined to take even a rudimentry scientific approach, there seems little reason to introduce you to the more in-depth approach.

Great! Who wins tommorrow's Sox game? How many wins WILL the Sox get this year? I will bet you that you will get the number wrong. On the  other hand, I CAN give you an accurate model for how to treat an ankle sprain to maximize the odds it will heal properly. Its pretty basic. I am waiting to hear your model for accurately predicting who will win a game and how many wins each team will get this year. Fact is, there is no such model, just educated guesses.

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Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

Great! Who wins tommorrow's Sox game? How many wins WILL the Sox get this year? I will bet you that you will get the number wrong. On the  other hand, I CAN give you an accurate model for how to treat an ankle sprain to maximize the odds it will heal properly. Its pretty basic. I am waiting to hear your model for accurately predicting who will win a game and how many wins each team will get this year. Fact is, there is no such model, just educated guesses.

Can you tell me how long it will be until my heel feels perfect?  How much mobility I will regain in my torn ankle?  How long the fractured collarbone will take to heal?

No.  You can't.  What you can do is take the severity of the injury, compare it to historical injuries, and create a model that says two-six months, 85-90%, and 6-8 weeks,  That's what I'm doing in a BB context..

If I were asked about the injuries, my answer would be I don't know, most of it, and about 2 months.  That's what you're doing in a BB context.

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Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

In response to Joebreidey's comment:

Great! Who wins tommorrow's Sox game? How many wins WILL the Sox get this year? I will bet you that you will get the number wrong. On the  other hand, I CAN give you an accurate model for how to treat an ankle sprain to maximize the odds it will heal properly. Its pretty basic. I am waiting to hear your model for accurately predicting who will win a game and how many wins each team will get this year. Fact is, there is no such model, just educated guesses.

Can you tell me how long it will be until my heel feels perfect?  How much mobility I will regain in my torn ankle?  How long the fractured collarbone will take to heal?

No.  You can't.  What you can do is take the severity of the injury, compare it to historical injuries, and create a model that says two-six months, 85-90%, and 6-8 weeks,  That's what I'm doing in a BB context..

If I were asked about the injuries, my answer would be I don't know, most of it, and about 2 months.  That's what you're doing in a BB context.

The medical model is not perfect; I admit that. But its based on evidence and is time tested. Its a widely accepted way to handle certain conditions. If you have a broken arm and you are 30 years old and I know the type of fracture you have, I can say with some certainty how long it will take you to heal and how long it will take you to be pain free-probably fairly accurately. Same with a given type of ankle sprain and patient type, as long as you follow instructions. The difference is that its WIDELY ACCEPTED, give or take a few wrinkles. You have the Joe Breidey model of baseball prediction-which, as far as I can tell, is limited in scope of use to Joe Breidey. Nothing personal Joe: I do think you are a knowledgeable baseball fan and use some pretty relevant stats to predict wins-similar stats as I might use if I were to work on a model, perhaps. But your analogy is faulty. Since you have not proven that your model works, your opinion is as good as mine or anyone else's.

• This post has been removed.

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Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

Interesting thread, made so in part because Pumpsie continues to defend his prognosis by saying it's no worse than anyone else's and that no one can predict baseball with any reliability, which ignores his own OP which was in fact a pronouncement that on May 15 the season was over for the Sox.  The team ERA then was 9th best in the AL, which was in reality pretty bad, but Pumpsie saw no hope for any improvement, so of course today it is 3d best in the AL.

He apparently cannot see he made a very bold prediction early in the season.  It gets better in his next comment a little further down on page 1 when he says the best thing to do is get rid of all that bad players on the team--and he names a lot of them--and hope somehow for new growth by, not 2014, but 2015.  He names zero players he thinks are worth keeping although one can hope he would include Buchholz and Pedroia, but maybe not.  And of course he offers no recipes for how to improve the team.  Finally, he seems oblivious to what made the Sox winners this year in the first place.  No mention of team chemistry, pretty good hitting, excellent managing, especially of the pitching staff, and the comebacks of Buchholz, Lester, Lackey, and even Doubront.

The reality is that this team does not appear to have many marquee/all-star players.  Ortiz at DH is about it.  Buchholz will be there and might even start, but Lester is on the margin for this year's all-star team. No other Sox pitchers.   Pedroia will probably get picked by the manager, but maybe not.

What is winning for this team--my opinion only--is team chemistry and surprising depth.  Drew, for example, has an OPS below .700, but has had some timely hits and has played a steady SS.  Just as important, his replacement for 2014 and maybe sooner, Iglesias, is looking terrific almost every day.  Ellsbury ain't yet the Ellsbury of 2009, let alone 2011, but he too has had big hits, bunches of SB's, and lately seems to be catching fire.  But his heir apparent, Bradley, is back with the big club and looking very good.  Carp the role player is still hitting over .300, mostly against righties.  Nava the role player is a role player no more but a steady factor and I think 3d on the team in rbi's, plus a solid OPS.  And so on--contributors throughout the lineup and in the field.  Middlebrooks, the heir apparent to the "big righty bat" title, is having a lousy season, but it's too early to give up on him.  Meanwhile, Iglesias looks like he was born at 3B and continues to hit well and to hope he can stay in Boston as at least the utility infielder.  Whatever else you can say about this lineup bereft of all-stars (except Ortiz), they have now scored more runs than any other team in MLB this season.  They have won 3 of 4 against the Yankees and Rangers (both contenders) without Ellsbury, Middlebrooks, or Victorino.

Same goes for the rotation.  Buchholz this year is undeniably a star, but Lester has been pitching much better than last year, and Lackey is so far a huge surprise--the starter the Sox thought they were getting three years ago.  Dempster has been up and down, but still a good middle of the rotation guy.  Doubront also up and down, now up.  Morales and Aceves both recently had good spot starts.  The bullpen is anything but flashy--hard to be sure Bailey is THE CLOSER--but has been effective.

It's still early, and these guys could still fold at some point.  With a lot more marquee talent they had the worst September in MLB history in 2011, mostly because the pitching went south.  But overall you have to like what you see right now, and I think a lot of it is because of team chemistry.  In other words, pumpsie-green was and is dead wrong in arguing it was/is time to get rid of a bunch of these bums.

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Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

This thread just proves an old point...when Pumpsie pours you a bottle of Whine don't drink it because it will just leave you with  a headache.

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Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

In response to Joebreidey's comment:

Great! Who wins tommorrow's Sox game? How many wins WILL the Sox get this year? I will bet you that you will get the number wrong. On the  other hand, I CAN give you an accurate model for how to treat an ankle sprain to maximize the odds it will heal properly. Its pretty basic. I am waiting to hear your model for accurately predicting who will win a game and how many wins each team will get this year. Fact is, there is no such model, just educated guesses.

Can you tell me how long it will be until my heel feels perfect?  How much mobility I will regain in my torn ankle?  How long the fractured collarbone will take to heal?

No.  You can't.  What you can do is take the severity of the injury, compare it to historical injuries, and create a model that says two-six months, 85-90%, and 6-8 weeks,  That's what I'm doing in a BB context..

If I were asked about the injuries, my answer would be I don't know, most of it, and about 2 months.  That's what you're doing in a BB context.

The medical model is not perfect; I admit that. But its based on evidence and is time tested. Its a widely accepted way to handle certain conditions. If you have a broken arm and you are 30 years old and I know the type of fracture you have, I can say with some certainty how long it will take you to heal and how long it will take you to be pain free-probably fairly accurately. Same with a given type of ankle sprain and patient type, as long as you follow instructions. The difference is that its WIDELY ACCEPTED, give or take a few wrinkles. You have the Joe Breidey model of baseball prediction-which, as far as I can tell, is limited in scope of use to Joe Breidey. Nothing personal Joe: I do think you are a knowledgeable baseball fan and use some pretty relevant stats to predict wins-similar stats as I might use if I were to work on a model, perhaps. But your analogy is faulty. Since you have not proven that your model works, your opinion is as good as mine or anyone else's.

Well, we certainly know how your model works.

Predict that the Sox will choke or flat out lose, every year, and sooner or later, it'll happen.

For the years it doesn't work, claim you were just kidding.

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Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

In response to ThefourBs' comment:

In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

In response to Joebreidey's comment:

Great! Who wins tommorrow's Sox game? How many wins WILL the Sox get this year? I will bet you that you will get the number wrong. On the  other hand, I CAN give you an accurate model for how to treat an ankle sprain to maximize the odds it will heal properly. Its pretty basic. I am waiting to hear your model for accurately predicting who will win a game and how many wins each team will get this year. Fact is, there is no such model, just educated guesses.

Can you tell me how long it will be until my heel feels perfect?  How much mobility I will regain in my torn ankle?  How long the fractured collarbone will take to heal?

No.  You can't.  What you can do is take the severity of the injury, compare it to historical injuries, and create a model that says two-six months, 85-90%, and 6-8 weeks,  That's what I'm doing in a BB context..

If I were asked about the injuries, my answer would be I don't know, most of it, and about 2 months.  That's what you're doing in a BB context.

The medical model is not perfect; I admit that. But its based on evidence and is time tested. Its a widely accepted way to handle certain conditions. If you have a broken arm and you are 30 years old and I know the type of fracture you have, I can say with some certainty how long it will take you to heal and how long it will take you to be pain free-probably fairly accurately. Same with a given type of ankle sprain and patient type, as long as you follow instructions. The difference is that its WIDELY ACCEPTED, give or take a few wrinkles. You have the Joe Breidey model of baseball prediction-which, as far as I can tell, is limited in scope of use to Joe Breidey. Nothing personal Joe: I do think you are a knowledgeable baseball fan and use some pretty relevant stats to predict wins-similar stats as I might use if I were to work on a model, perhaps. But your analogy is faulty. Since you have not proven that your model works, your opinion is as good as mine or anyone else's.

Well, we certainly know how your model works.

Predict that the Sox will choke or flat out lose, every year, and sooner or later, it'll happen.

For the years it doesn't work, claim you were just kidding.

You need to pay attention-for a change. I have consistently predicted about 81 wins this year. That has not changed. Is that a choke job from where the team is now? You can decide that.

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Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

In response to ThefourBs' comment:

In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

In response to Joebreidey's comment:

Great! Who wins tommorrow's Sox game? How many wins WILL the Sox get this year? I will bet you that you will get the number wrong. On the  other hand, I CAN give you an accurate model for how to treat an ankle sprain to maximize the odds it will heal properly. Its pretty basic. I am waiting to hear your model for accurately predicting who will win a game and how many wins each team will get this year. Fact is, there is no such model, just educated guesses.

Can you tell me how long it will be until my heel feels perfect?  How much mobility I will regain in my torn ankle?  How long the fractured collarbone will take to heal?

No.  You can't.  What you can do is take the severity of the injury, compare it to historical injuries, and create a model that says two-six months, 85-90%, and 6-8 weeks,  That's what I'm doing in a BB context..

If I were asked about the injuries, my answer would be I don't know, most of it, and about 2 months.  That's what you're doing in a BB context.

The medical model is not perfect; I admit that. But its based on evidence and is time tested. Its a widely accepted way to handle certain conditions. If you have a broken arm and you are 30 years old and I know the type of fracture you have, I can say with some certainty how long it will take you to heal and how long it will take you to be pain free-probably fairly accurately. Same with a given type of ankle sprain and patient type, as long as you follow instructions. The difference is that its WIDELY ACCEPTED, give or take a few wrinkles. You have the Joe Breidey model of baseball prediction-which, as far as I can tell, is limited in scope of use to Joe Breidey. Nothing personal Joe: I do think you are a knowledgeable baseball fan and use some pretty relevant stats to predict wins-similar stats as I might use if I were to work on a model, perhaps. But your analogy is faulty. Since you have not proven that your model works, your opinion is as good as mine or anyone else's.

Well, we certainly know how your model works.

Predict that the Sox will choke or flat out lose, every year, and sooner or later, it'll happen.

For the years it doesn't work, claim you were just kidding.

You need to pay attention-for a change. I have consistently predicted about 81 wins this year. That has not changed. Is that a choke job from where the team is now? You can decide that.

No, this year is an example of you saying they'll flat out lose.

You'll keep the "choke" label in reserve and pull it out, in August, when they get swept in a series.

BTW, is Jeter's rebreak of his ankle one of those "wrinkles" you refered to earlier?

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Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

In response to ThefourBs' comment:

In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

In response to ThefourBs' comment:

In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

In response to Joebreidey's comment:

Great! Who wins tommorrow's Sox game? How many wins WILL the Sox get this year? I will bet you that you will get the number wrong. On the  other hand, I CAN give you an accurate model for how to treat an ankle sprain to maximize the odds it will heal properly. Its pretty basic. I am waiting to hear your model for accurately predicting who will win a game and how many wins each team will get this year. Fact is, there is no such model, just educated guesses.

Can you tell me how long it will be until my heel feels perfect?  How much mobility I will regain in my torn ankle?  How long the fractured collarbone will take to heal?

No.  You can't.  What you can do is take the severity of the injury, compare it to historical injuries, and create a model that says two-six months, 85-90%, and 6-8 weeks,  That's what I'm doing in a BB context..

If I were asked about the injuries, my answer would be I don't know, most of it, and about 2 months.  That's what you're doing in a BB context.

The medical model is not perfect; I admit that. But its based on evidence and is time tested. Its a widely accepted way to handle certain conditions. If you have a broken arm and you are 30 years old and I know the type of fracture you have, I can say with some certainty how long it will take you to heal and how long it will take you to be pain free-probably fairly accurately. Same with a given type of ankle sprain and patient type, as long as you follow instructions. The difference is that its WIDELY ACCEPTED, give or take a few wrinkles. You have the Joe Breidey model of baseball prediction-which, as far as I can tell, is limited in scope of use to Joe Breidey. Nothing personal Joe: I do think you are a knowledgeable baseball fan and use some pretty relevant stats to predict wins-similar stats as I might use if I were to work on a model, perhaps. But your analogy is faulty. Since you have not proven that your model works, your opinion is as good as mine or anyone else's.

Well, we certainly know how your model works.

Predict that the Sox will choke or flat out lose, every year, and sooner or later, it'll happen.

For the years it doesn't work, claim you were just kidding.

You need to pay attention-for a change. I have consistently predicted about 81 wins this year. That has not changed. Is that a choke job from where the team is now? You can decide that.

No, this year is an example of you saying they'll flat out lose.

You'll keep the "choke" label in reserve and pull it out, in August, when they get swept in a series.

BTW, is Jeter's rebreak of his ankle one of those "wrinkles" you refered to earlier?

Where did I say they will "flat out lose"? Can you dig that post up? I am predicting about 81 wins this year-which is a fine improvement over last year (12 games). As for Jeter's ankle, since he doesn't play for the Sox I am not considering it when I do my calculations.

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