1. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThefourBs. Show ThefourBs's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:

     

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

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    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

     

     

     

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Great! Who wins tommorrow's Sox game? How many wins WILL the Sox get this year? I will bet you that you will get the number wrong. On the  other hand, I CAN give you an accurate model for how to treat an ankle sprain to maximize the odds it will heal properly. Its pretty basic. I am waiting to hear your model for accurately predicting who will win a game and how many wins each team will get this year. Fact is, there is no such model, just educated guesses.

    Can you tell me how long it will be until my heel feels perfect?  How much mobility I will regain in my torn ankle?  How long the fractured collarbone will take to heal?

    No.  You can't.  What you can do is take the severity of the injury, compare it to historical injuries, and create a model that says two-six months, 85-90%, and 6-8 weeks,  That's what I'm doing in a BB context..

    If I were asked about the injuries, my answer would be I don't know, most of it, and about 2 months.  That's what you're doing in a BB context.

     

     

     

     



    The medical model is not perfect; I admit that. But its based on evidence and is time tested. Its a widely accepted way to handle certain conditions. If you have a broken arm and you are 30 years old and I know the type of fracture you have, I can say with some certainty how long it will take you to heal and how long it will take you to be pain free-probably fairly accurately. Same with a given type of ankle sprain and patient type, as long as you follow instructions. The difference is that its WIDELY ACCEPTED, give or take a few wrinkles. You have the Joe Breidey model of baseball prediction-which, as far as I can tell, is limited in scope of use to Joe Breidey. Nothing personal Joe: I do think you are a knowledgeable baseball fan and use some pretty relevant stats to predict wins-similar stats as I might use if I were to work on a model, perhaps. But your analogy is faulty. Since you have not proven that your model works, your opinion is as good as mine or anyone else's.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     




    Well, we certainly know how your model works.

     

     

     

    Predict that the Sox will choke or flat out lose, every year, and sooner or later, it'll happen.

    For the years it doesn't work, claim you were just kidding.

     

     



    You need to pay attention-for a change. I have consistently predicted about 81 wins this year. That has not changed. Is that a choke job from where the team is now? You can decide that.

     

     

     




    No, this year is an example of you saying they'll flat out lose.


    You'll keep the "choke" label in reserve and pull it out, in August, when they get swept in a series.

    BTW, is Jeter's rebreak of his ankle one of those "wrinkles" you refered to earlier?

     

     



    Where did I say they will "flat out lose"? Can you dig that post up? I am predicting about 81 wins this year-which is a fine improvement over last year (12 games). As for Jeter's ankle, since he doesn't play for the Sox I am not considering it when I do my calculations.

     

     

     



    A .500 record and missing the playoffs is selling them short.

     

    I can dig up the posts were you said Lester and Buchholz weren't going to be appreciably better than last year.

    "I can say with some certainty how long it will take you to heal and how long it will take you to be pain free-probably fairly accurately. Same with a given type of ankle sprain and patient type, as long as you follow instructions. The difference is that its WIDELY ACCEPTED, give or take a few wrinkles."

    You brought up how accurate medical prognoses can be.

    I was just wondering if Jeter's ankle was a "wrinkle" or an absolute swing and miss by some folks in the medical profession.

     But, hey, I can understand if you want to suddenly be obtuse on the matter.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:

     

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:

     

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

     

     

     

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Great! Who wins tommorrow's Sox game? How many wins WILL the Sox get this year? I will bet you that you will get the number wrong. On the  other hand, I CAN give you an accurate model for how to treat an ankle sprain to maximize the odds it will heal properly. Its pretty basic. I am waiting to hear your model for accurately predicting who will win a game and how many wins each team will get this year. Fact is, there is no such model, just educated guesses.

    Can you tell me how long it will be until my heel feels perfect?  How much mobility I will regain in my torn ankle?  How long the fractured collarbone will take to heal?

    No.  You can't.  What you can do is take the severity of the injury, compare it to historical injuries, and create a model that says two-six months, 85-90%, and 6-8 weeks,  That's what I'm doing in a BB context..

    If I were asked about the injuries, my answer would be I don't know, most of it, and about 2 months.  That's what you're doing in a BB context.

     

     

     

     



    The medical model is not perfect; I admit that. But its based on evidence and is time tested. Its a widely accepted way to handle certain conditions. If you have a broken arm and you are 30 years old and I know the type of fracture you have, I can say with some certainty how long it will take you to heal and how long it will take you to be pain free-probably fairly accurately. Same with a given type of ankle sprain and patient type, as long as you follow instructions. The difference is that its WIDELY ACCEPTED, give or take a few wrinkles. You have the Joe Breidey model of baseball prediction-which, as far as I can tell, is limited in scope of use to Joe Breidey. Nothing personal Joe: I do think you are a knowledgeable baseball fan and use some pretty relevant stats to predict wins-similar stats as I might use if I were to work on a model, perhaps. But your analogy is faulty. Since you have not proven that your model works, your opinion is as good as mine or anyone else's.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     




    Well, we certainly know how your model works.

     

     

     

    Predict that the Sox will choke or flat out lose, every year, and sooner or later, it'll happen.

    For the years it doesn't work, claim you were just kidding.

     

     



    You need to pay attention-for a change. I have consistently predicted about 81 wins this year. That has not changed. Is that a choke job from where the team is now? You can decide that.

     

     

     




    No, this year is an example of you saying they'll flat out lose.


    You'll keep the "choke" label in reserve and pull it out, in August, when they get swept in a series.

    BTW, is Jeter's rebreak of his ankle one of those "wrinkles" you refered to earlier?

     

     



    Where did I say they will "flat out lose"? Can you dig that post up? I am predicting about 81 wins this year-which is a fine improvement over last year (12 games). As for Jeter's ankle, since he doesn't play for the Sox I am not considering it when I do my calculations.

     

     

     



    A .500 record and missing the playoffs is selling them short.

     

    I can dig up the posts were you said Lester and Buchholz weren't going to be appreciably better than last year.

    "I can say with some certainty how long it will take you to heal and how long it will take you to be pain free-probably fairly accurately. Same with a given type of ankle sprain and patient type, as long as you follow instructions. The difference is that its WIDELY ACCEPTED, give or take a few wrinkles."

    You brought up how accurate medical prognoses can be.

    I was just wondering if Jeter's ankle was a "wrinkle" or an absolute swing and miss by some folks in the medical profession.

     But, hey, I can understand if you want to suddenly be obtuse on the matter.



    Guess we will wait and see if .500 and no playoffs is selling them short. Today is June 5. You have no idea how many games this team will win; neither do I. You have your guess; I have mine. I am sticking to my guess until there is clear evidence that I am off on it. If the team is still playing .600 ball on Sept 1 I will gladly admit that I was wrong. If the team is playing .500 ball on Sept 1 will you gladly admit YOU were wrong? Or will you keep whining about how I am always predicting they will lose and calling them chokers?

    As for Jeter, I don't have access to his medical records, so I can't say what the orthopedists told him about his prognosis. Its possible that he had a bad fracture that carried with it a significant chance of failing to heal properly. Obviously the medical profession cannot guarantee a result, but we do have evidence based treatment plans and statistics that are fairly reliable. If you break your leg and its treated properly you can be told your approximate chances of it healing. If Breidey's W-L model predicts 96 wins there is no objective evidence that he has any proof that his model works at all. My issue is with his analogy, not with which stats he chooses to use.

     
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  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    In response to ConanObrien's comment:

    Both feet in his mouth now.

    LMAO



    Obrien.  Calling Mr. Conan Obrien.  You are wanted on the "Paterno Family Don't Get It..." thread immediately.  We are in dire need of some well-placed, terse barbs there.  The Sheriff thanks you for your loyal service to this chatboard.  

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season


    Pumpsie, you still don't get it.  You said the season was over back on May 15 and said so in no uncertain terms.  You said nothing about 81 wins or 162 games, just that the Sox were a bunch of losers as they have always been despite the fact the Sox have had exactly one losing season in the last 12 seasons or so. 

    This horse is already on you, and none of us have to return to this thread on September 1 because right now the season is definitely not over, not with the Sox leading the AL East by 2.5 games. 

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    What Pumpsie refuses to address is the improvement in the pitching since he wrote the OP.  In the OP he was predicting that the Rays would soon overtake us in the pitching stats.  Well, as of today the Red Sox ERA is 3.74 and the Rays is 4.36.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    What Pumpsie refuses to address is the improvement in the pitching since he wrote the OP.  In the OP he was predicting that the Rays would soon overtake us in the pitching stats.  Well, as of today the Red Sox ERA is 3.74 and the Rays is 4.36.



    This is also not adjusting for the ballpark hitting friendliness factor to boot.

    As far as what Pumpsie refuses to address: 

    1. His words.

    2. Obvious proof.  It doesn't take much of a statistical maven to figure this one out.  

     

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    What Pumpsie refuses to address is the improvement in the pitching since he wrote the OP.  In the OP he was predicting that the Rays would soon overtake us in the pitching stats.  Well, as of today the Red Sox ERA is 3.74 and the Rays is 4.36.



    Hey, I am as thrilled as anyone that our pitching is now third or so in the AL. Thats what it will take for us to compete for a playoff spot, if it continues. I guess what I am saying when I use the 81 win figure is that I do not expect us to finish in the top 3-4 teams in the league in pitching. Last year we were 12th. It would be a huge improvement if we won 12 more games and finished in the middle of the pack in pitching, which is what I fully expect to happen.

     
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  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThefourBs. Show ThefourBs's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    What Pumpsie refuses to address is the improvement in the pitching since he wrote the OP.  In the OP he was predicting that the Rays would soon overtake us in the pitching stats.  Well, as of today the Red Sox ERA is 3.74 and the Rays is 4.36.

     



    Hey, I am as thrilled as anyone that our pitching is now third or so in the AL. Thats what it will take for us to compete for a playoff spot, if it continues. I guess what I am saying when I use the 81 win figure is that I do not expect us to finish in the top 3-4 teams in the league in pitching. Last year we were 12th. It would be a huge improvement if we won 12 more games and finished in the middle of the pack in pitching, which is what I fully expect to happen.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Just getting rid of Valentine is good for 12 games.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    In response to jete02fan's comment:

    In response to carnie's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Please sir, may I be the first to surrender?

    Mandolin player and reluctant admirer of the New York Yankees

     

    hey Carn!!..good to see you..Cool


     

    [/QUOTE]


    Thanks. It's nice to finally be able to pay up on our bet. Smile

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from jimedfred. Show jimedfred's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    Darned anarchist revolutionary Frog criminal. Who was that bomb-thrower hero of yours again ?

    John Lydon ? Ilya Kuriakin ?

     
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  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    He still doesn't seem to understand he said the season was over on May 15.  That's pretty definitive.  Now, despite what he says, he is in the position of having to root against the Sox for the rest of the season rather than admit he was wrong on May 15. 

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    He still doesn't seem to understand he said the season was over on May 15.  That's pretty definitive.  Now, despite what he says, he is in the position of having to root against the Sox for the rest of the season rather than admit he was wrong on May 15. 



    You have to understand this is pretty much standard behavior for Pumpsie.  He'll be in here arguing with people.

     
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  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    He still doesn't seem to understand he said the season was over on May 15.  That's pretty definitive.  Now, despite what he says, he is in the position of having to root against the Sox for the rest of the season rather than admit he was wrong on May 15. 




    With all due respect Max, only a fool would believe this was a totally serious claim. There is still a lot of baseball to be played. I am sticking to my prediction, which has always been my prediction, that we will be about a .500 club this year. I would be delighted to be wrong about it, but thats what I have been saying since before the season started. 81 wins; no playoffs.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    In response to jackbu's comment:

    In response to ConanObrien's comment:

     

    In response to jackbu's comment:

     

     

    In response to ConanObrien's comment:

     

     

     

    Both feet in his mouth now.

    LMAO

     

     

     




    Nothing making you laugh today?

     

     

     

     




     

     

     

     

    Your pathetic stalking bu bu clown.




    Seriously, you seek out posters all day and you call me a stalker?  Just had a bet with someone that you would respond within minutes, thanks.

     



    Seriously, why not just put Conan the Moron on ignore where it deserves to be? Life is much more pleasant here that way. Nothing he writes is worth reading, much less commenting on. His is a vapid mind, devoid totally of intellect and baseball acumen. Why would you want to subject yourself to the plague he perpetrates here?

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    In response to Potomac87's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to Hetchinspete's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

     

    Hetch got carried away. My mom passed away in 1985. This is not a Hitchcock movie.

     

     

    Hi Pumpsie, 

    I might have gotten carried away a bit but why all of the drama or what ever in your writings. We knew the pitching might swing one way or the other. hoping that if Lester and Buch could return to form they be be the nucleus of a solid rotation hinging on whether Lackey could come back for one. I think he'll come around but pitchers after TJ surgery can take a bit more time to come back.  Doubrant has not looked good so far and he's only in his second full season of MLB, but he may also never be any better. The hope would be that with Farrel around to help he'll improve. Dempster despite a few rough outings has been pretty solid overall, just not getting much run support.

    The major problem as I see it is a thin bullpen which just is suffering from overwork and all too many injuries which seems to have plagued this team for the last 4-5 years. 

    My question is if you realized this was a rebuilding year why be so critical.

    Hetch 

     

     



    To be perfectly honest, this thread was half tongue in cheek. I am not going to the nearest bridge any time soon and while I still think that fourth place is our likely destiny this year, there is still an outside chance, if our major players can stay healthy and the cards fall right for us, we could possibly remain in the race for a playoff spot. This is by no means a championship caliber team IMO.
    As to your question, I think that the FO should have committed itself completely to a rebuilding project that would have produced an excellent team by 2015. They did not do that. They hedged their bets and tried to field an acceptable team, but not a great team, this year thereby detracting from our chances to win a ring in 2015 or thereabouts. There are folks here who want to enjoy every season and feel that there is a chance for the playoffs every year, and I respect that, but for my part, I would rather suffer through another aweful season in exchange for some consistently excellent teams beginning in a few years. They could have done that by trading away guys like Ellsbury and Salty and limiting Victorino's contract to two years (yes, he's done great so far this year, but I do not believe he will contribute like this in year 3 of his contract). Glad everyone except for Conan, who is a wart on this forum, has had so much fun with this thread.

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


     

    At least you admit that you were pretending / insincere / dishonest / and only trolling us. That is one step in the right direction. The forum is dependent on posters who love to annoy / fool / irritate / and incense the gullible of the forum. Good job Pumpsie - the forum depends on the troll element. Love these FUN threads that predict doom and gloom for our team. What is unbelievable is how many enable and fall for your "tongue-in-cheek" routine / trolling.

    [/QUOTE]


    Guess you are one of the gullible ones. Have fun with the thread. Its why I started it.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to jackbu's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to ConanObrien's comment:

     

    In response to jackbu's comment:

     

     

    In response to ConanObrien's comment:

     

     

     

    Both feet in his mouth now.

    LMAO

     

     

     




    Nothing making you laugh today?

     

     

     

     




     

     

     

     

    Your pathetic stalking bu bu clown.




    Seriously, you seek out posters all day and you call me a stalker?  Just had a bet with someone that you would respond within minutes, thanks.

     

     



    Seriously, why not just put Conan the Moron on ignore where it deserves to be? Life is much more pleasant here that way. Nothing he writes is worth reading, much less commenting on. His is a vapid mind, devoid totally of intellect and baseball acumen. Why would you want to subject yourself to the plague he perpetrates here?

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I like that Conan riles you so much.  Kudos to Conan!

     
  24. This post has been removed.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: As the Sun Sets on another Sox Season

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    With all due respect Max, only a fool would believe this was a totally serious claim. There is still a lot of baseball to be played. I am sticking to my prediction, which has always been my prediction, that we will be about a .500 club this year. I would be delighted to be wrong about it, but thats what I have been saying since before the season started. 81 wins; no playoffs.



    Going 44-57 the rest of the way is going to suk...Cry

     

     
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