Re: Avoid Dempster Like the Plague!
posted at 12/14/2012 11:17 AM EST
In response to Drewski5's comment:
Agreed. 1 @ 8 = good. 2 @ 14 = I can live with. Anything higher = please no.
That being said why would Dempster only be worth 2 @14?
Kuroda who was 37 in Feb 2012, he got 1 @ $10m (2009 -2011 8.3 WAR, 3.31 ERA pitching in LA)
Dempser will be 36 in May 2013, he got 2 @$26.5 (2010 - 2012 9.2 WAR, 4.02 ERA pitching in Wrigley and Texas)
2 @$26.5m is a lot for Dempster, but 2 @$14m?
(((((((((((Kuroda is a sample size of one. Just because Kuroda had a great year at an old age doesnt mean we should expect every pitcher to duplicate the success. Just like it was foolish to expect Lowrie to become the next Pedroia.)))))))))))
I put up Kuroda's stats from BEFORE he hit FA, his last year is irrelevant.
(((((((((((((All players are individuals. They have nothing to do with each other.)))))))))
Wow, that is a really foolish thing to write. I suspect you are not going to make it as an agent. Do you really think that two NL pitchers who were FA one year apart in age, in two successive years, moving to ALEast, with similar numbers have nothing to do with each other? I would go so far as to say Kuroda is the closest comp for a decade. 2 @ $14 m is silly talk.
Dave Cameron agreed yesterday: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/ryan-dempster-quality-al-pitcher/
Last year, the guy making the big move was Hiroki Kuroda. At 37, he was leaving Dodger Stadium and the NL West for the Yankees, and he was going to find out just how different life was on the east coast, with the warm summers, small ballparks, and fearsome offensive line-ups. Instead of regressing, Kuroda had perhaps the best season of his career. His ERA- of 79 was tied for the sixth best mark in the league, and his peripheral numbers all head steady, even his strikeout rate. There was next to no difference between NL West Kuroda and AL East Kuroda.