Bailey to be tendered?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Bailey to be tendered?

    This seemed like a no-brainer to me, since he is very unlikely to be worth what he gets in arb.  But per mlbtr, he is likely to be tendered...

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Bailey to be tendered?

    They are completely foolish if they tender him a contract at what it will cost. WASTE of $$. Well apparently Ben isnt as smart as I thought he was. The guy isnt even going to be ready until mid season. waste of 4-5M. Dumb, dumb, dumb.

    I bet he would have come back even if non tendered and offered a MiL deal.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from sportsbozo1. Show sportsbozo1's posts

    Re: Bailey to be tendered?

    Actually this is a calculated move. The market doesn't have any less expensive options.Also they have stated all along that they were looking for someone as insurance in case Koji broke down and whether we think he's a closer or not makes absolutely no difference because evidently the Sox brass believe he is....They could make worse decisions! According to Bailey himself he's progressing quite nicely in his rehabilitation.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Bailey to be tendered?

    In response to djcbuffum's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    (1) Why do we think he'll get $4-5mm in arbitration? His platform year is terrible. Isn't it possible he'll get far less? 

    (2) It's also possible the Sox have discussed avoiding arbitration with him, and they have a general understanding of a lesser value contract.

    (3) Even if he gets $4-5mm, are the Sox going to be so close to the luxury tax limit that this contract will make a difference? In terms of their actual spending capacity, this contract is a pittance. It's only a limit if they are going to approach the luxury tax limit. I don't think that's in the plans.

    (4) From a roster management standpoint, this is great. Bailey will be stashed on the 60-day-DL until they need him. You can never have too many arms. He'll be insurance of Uerhara.

    [/QUOTE]


    I agree that he might help the pen in the 2nd half when hes available. 3rd year arb. He wont get lower than he did this year. It just doesnt make sense to me to pay him when they could non tender him and bring him back on a lesser deal. Who knows how hes going to pitch after being out a year. Do you feel 100% confident you can throw him in the 9th inning in a big game? I dont.

    We could use 4M somewhere else. Maybe on a healthy arm for the pen that can help ALL YEAR?

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Bailey to be tendered?

    Maybe Ben plans on trading him.

    I can't see any other reason to pay him $4M.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: Bailey to be tendered?

    Andrew Bailey - R -  Red Sox

    Joel Sherman of the New York Post hears that the Red Sox will tender a contract to Andrew Bailey.

    Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal previously reported that Bailey was a "strong candidate" to be non-tendered. The reliever will likely be out until midseason following labrum and shoulder capsule surgery and is expected to make more than $4 million in arbitration. Boston apparently feels his high upside is worth that kind of commitment.

     

          Andrew Bailey - R -  Red Sox

    Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal writes that Andrew Bailey is a "strong candidate" to be non-tendered.

    Bailey would receive a salary north of $4 million in his final year of arbitration, and the Red Sox might not be willing to pay him that much since he's expected to miss half of 2014 while coming back from shoulder surgery. "Ben (Cherington) and I had a good conversation at the end of the year," Bailey said Saturday. "It's a business. We haven't had any contact yet." Bailey will begin a throwing program in January.

     

    who is right? we shall see....        

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Bailey to be tendered?

    In response to djcbuffum's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to djcbuffum's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    (1) Why do we think he'll get $4-5mm in arbitration? His platform year is terrible. Isn't it possible he'll get far less? 

    (2) It's also possible the Sox have discussed avoiding arbitration with him, and they have a general understanding of a lesser value contract.

    (3) Even if he gets $4-5mm, are the Sox going to be so close to the luxury tax limit that this contract will make a difference? In terms of their actual spending capacity, this contract is a pittance. It's only a limit if they are going to approach the luxury tax limit. I don't think that's in the plans.

    (4) From a roster management standpoint, this is great. Bailey will be stashed on the 60-day-DL until they need him. You can never have too many arms. He'll be insurance of Uerhara.




    I agree that he might help the pen in the 2nd half when hes available. 3rd year arb. He wont get lower than he did this year. It just doesnt make sense to me to pay him when they could non tender him and bring him back on a lesser deal. Who knows how hes going to pitch after being out a year. Do you feel 100% confident you can throw him in the 9th inning in a big game? I dont.

    We could use 4M somewhere else. Maybe on a healthy arm for the pen that can help ALL YEAR?

    [/QUOTE]

    Of course I don't trust him with the 9th inning right now, on Dec. 1st. But things might look a lot different next June.

    Why won't he get less next year? He barely pitched this year, and even when he did, he wasn't very good. And that's on the heels of a terrible year last year. I don't think it's a given he'll get a raise in arbitration. And of course the Sox rarely go to arbitration.

    [/QUOTE]


    Thats not how arb works. He might not get a raise, but he certainly wont get less than the 4,1M he made this year. Also I dont agree with paying a guy who has been out for basically 2 years 4M and hope he does good come june/july. 4M can be spent better than that IMO.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: Bailey to be tendered?

    I thought for sure he'd be non-tendered. It's a mystery.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Bailey to be tendered?

    In response to djcbuffum's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to djcbuffum's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to djcbuffum's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    (1) Why do we think he'll get $4-5mm in arbitration? His platform year is terrible. Isn't it possible he'll get far less? 

    (2) It's also possible the Sox have discussed avoiding arbitration with him, and they have a general understanding of a lesser value contract.

    (3) Even if he gets $4-5mm, are the Sox going to be so close to the luxury tax limit that this contract will make a difference? In terms of their actual spending capacity, this contract is a pittance. It's only a limit if they are going to approach the luxury tax limit. I don't think that's in the plans.

    (4) From a roster management standpoint, this is great. Bailey will be stashed on the 60-day-DL until they need him. You can never have too many arms. He'll be insurance of Uerhara.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I agree that he might help the pen in the 2nd half when hes available. 3rd year arb. He wont get lower than he did this year. It just doesnt make sense to me to pay him when they could non tender him and bring him back on a lesser deal. Who knows how hes going to pitch after being out a year. Do you feel 100% confident you can throw him in the 9th inning in a big game? I dont.

     

    We could use 4M somewhere else. Maybe on a healthy arm for the pen that can help ALL YEAR?

    [/QUOTE]

    Of course I don't trust him with the 9th inning right now, on Dec. 1st. But things might look a lot different next June.

    Why won't he get less next year? He barely pitched this year, and even when he did, he wasn't very good. And that's on the heels of a terrible year last year. I don't think it's a given he'll get a raise in arbitration. And of course the Sox rarely go to arbitration.

    [/QUOTE]


    Thats not how arb works. He might not get a raise, but he certainly wont get less than the 4,1M he made this year. Also I dont agree with paying a guy who has been out for basically 2 years 4M and hope he does good come june/july. 4M can be spent better than that IMO.

    [/QUOTE]

    In arbitration both parties make a recommendation to the arbitrator of what contract they feel is appropriate, and then make arguments in support of that contract. The arbitrator is required to pick one or the other, and cannot make up his/her own number. THere's nothing that would stop the Sox from offering a number less than what Bailey earned in 2013 and I think that they have good arguments to support a lower contract. Nothing in the arbitration process requires a raise each year.

    [/QUOTE]

    The Sox would have to offer 80 percent of last year so the lost the Sox could go would be around 3.3 mil.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Bailey to be tendered?

    In response to djcbuffum's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to djcbuffum's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to djcbuffum's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    (1) Why do we think he'll get $4-5mm in arbitration? His platform year is terrible. Isn't it possible he'll get far less? 

    (2) It's also possible the Sox have discussed avoiding arbitration with him, and they have a general understanding of a lesser value contract.

    (3) Even if he gets $4-5mm, are the Sox going to be so close to the luxury tax limit that this contract will make a difference? In terms of their actual spending capacity, this contract is a pittance. It's only a limit if they are going to approach the luxury tax limit. I don't think that's in the plans.

    (4) From a roster management standpoint, this is great. Bailey will be stashed on the 60-day-DL until they need him. You can never have too many arms. He'll be insurance of Uerhara.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I agree that he might help the pen in the 2nd half when hes available. 3rd year arb. He wont get lower than he did this year. It just doesnt make sense to me to pay him when they could non tender him and bring him back on a lesser deal. Who knows how hes going to pitch after being out a year. Do you feel 100% confident you can throw him in the 9th inning in a big game? I dont.

     

    We could use 4M somewhere else. Maybe on a healthy arm for the pen that can help ALL YEAR?

    [/QUOTE]

    Of course I don't trust him with the 9th inning right now, on Dec. 1st. But things might look a lot different next June.

    Why won't he get less next year? He barely pitched this year, and even when he did, he wasn't very good. And that's on the heels of a terrible year last year. I don't think it's a given he'll get a raise in arbitration. And of course the Sox rarely go to arbitration.

    [/QUOTE]


    Thats not how arb works. He might not get a raise, but he certainly wont get less than the 4,1M he made this year. Also I dont agree with paying a guy who has been out for basically 2 years 4M and hope he does good come june/july. 4M can be spent better than that IMO.

    [/QUOTE]

    In arbitration both parties make a recommendation to the arbitrator of what contract they feel is appropriate, and then make arguments in support of that contract. The arbitrator is required to pick one or the other, and cannot make up his/her own number. THere's nothing that would stop the Sox from offering a number less than what Bailey earned in 2013 and I think that they have good arguments to support a lower contract. Nothing in the arbitration process requires a raise each year.

    [/QUOTE]


    Hes projected to make 4.3M. He has to get at least 80% from the prior year. Even if he made 3.5M, thats too much for a guy that MIGHT be ok come july.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Bailey to be tendered?

    This is all based on a tweet from Joel Sherman, of the NY Post. I don't know the details but I don't believe he gets arb because if he does he would get $4 mil. I do sense that possibly he could be brought back at a $1 mil type deal but that isn't what Sherman said. then again, he does work for a Murdock newspaper.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Bailey to be tendered?

    In response to djcbuffum's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I didn't know there was an 80% floor to arb awards. That changes things somewhat. Also, looking at his 2013 numbers again, he wasn't quite as bad as I thought, making it harder to argue for a pay cut.

    Nonetheless, as long as the Sox aren't going to run up on the luxury tax limit, I don't really see the downside of this. Chances are likely they won't even go to arbitration. Bailey is a low-risk, high-reward signing. Even if it's an overpay, or if he contributes nothing, he's not taking a roster spot. This contract isn't going to max out the budget and prevent some other FA signing that could be critical.

    [/QUOTE]


    That seems to be the issue since they have about 30ishM to spend and have a few needs. I agree he could be a very useful part of the pen, but I would have thought a non-tender and then rework the deal at 1M plus incentives, or a MiL deal.

    The Sox have more info than me and Im sure the reasoning will come out soon. I just cant wrap my head around 4M for him.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Bailey to be tendered?

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    They are completely foolish if they tender him a contract at what it will cost. WASTE of $$. Well apparently Ben isnt as smart as I thought he was. The guy isnt even going to be ready until mid season. waste of 4-5M. Dumb, dumb, dumb.

    I bet he would have come back even if non tendered and offered a MiL deal.




    Agree. I'm not a Bailey fan, came from Pitchers Ballpark, and think he's overated.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Bailey to be tendered?

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    This is all based on a tweet from Joel Sherman, of the NY Post. I don't know the details but I don't believe he gets arb because if he does he would get $4 mil. I do sense that possibly he could be brought back at a $1 mil type deal but that isn't what Sherman said. then again, he does work for a Murdock newspaper.




    yes hes on his 3rd year of arbitration predicted to make 4.3M, but could go as low as about 3.5M. I thought a non tender and brought back at 1M plus incentives was the way to go too.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Bailey to be tendered?

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    They are completely foolish if they tender him a contract at what it will cost. WASTE of $$. Well apparently Ben isnt as smart as I thought he was. The guy isnt even going to be ready until mid season. waste of 4-5M. Dumb, dumb, dumb.

    I bet he would have come back even if non tendered and offered a MiL deal.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Agree. I'm not a Bailey fan, came from Pitchers Ballpark, and think he's overated.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Hes had a bunch of arm issues too. Bailey had Tommy John surgery in college and has battled elbow issues in at least three season. In the 2010 and 2011 seasons combined Bailey only threw a total of 90 innings due to bone chips in his elbow. He had surgery after the 2010 season, but was still bothered by elbow and forearm issues in 2011 that kept him out until late May. Now, another surgery with the Sox.

    This guy is the epitome of fragile.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from 37stories. Show 37stories's posts

    Re: Bailey to be tendered?

    I used to be a big Bailey supporter, and I still think he could be a good pitcher, but he needs to prove he can pitch again before he gets that kind of cash.  If he were on a one year deal for 1.5 I could understand it.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Bailey to be tendered?

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    They are completely foolish if they tender him a contract at what it will cost. WASTE of $$. Well apparently Ben isnt as smart as I thought he was. The guy isnt even going to be ready until mid season. waste of 4-5M. Dumb, dumb, dumb.

    I bet he would have come back even if non tendered and offered a MiL deal.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Agree. I'm not a Bailey fan, came from Pitchers Ballpark, and think he's overated.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Hes had a bunch of arm issues too. Bailey had Tommy John surgery in college and has battled elbow issues in at least three season. In the 2010 and 2011 seasons combined Bailey only threw a total of 90 innings due to bone chips in his elbow. He had surgery after the 2010 season, but was still bothered by elbow and forearm issues in 2011 that kept him out until late May. Now, another surgery with the Sox.

    This guy is the epitome of fragile.

    [/QUOTE]

    Another good point, he was injured a lot in Oakland too.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bigpapa1977. Show Bigpapa1977's posts

    Re: Bailey to be tendered?

    If the Sox want to keep all six of their starters AND they want to stay under the $189 MM payroll limit, then this is an odd move.  IMO, it would mean two things:


    1) Bailey is ahead of schedule in his rehab


    AND

     

    2) The market for RPs has blown up and the Sox don't want to commit to the Jesse Crain/Brian Wilson/Grant Balfour/Joaquin Benoit/Joe Nathan/Edward Mujica types who will either command high dollars or 3(+) years.

     

    If the Sox can indeed offer him 1 year at $3.5 - $4 MM, is that so bad?

     

    Is appears that the Sox are about $32 MM under the $189 tax limit and paying the $6+ per for any of the above mentioned relievers is not something the Sox would likely want to do.

     

    If they sign Baily for $4 MM, then they would have $28 MM for C / 1B / CF (possible backup) and backup middler IF.

    I have mentioned in previous posts that John Buck ($4 - $5 MM),  Corey Hart ($10 MM plus incentives), Rajai Davis ($4 - $5 MM) along with John McDonald ($1 MM) as options. 

    Along with being fiscally frugal in 2014 (under the $189 with room for smaller, in-season moves), these options will secure 4 picks in the top 40 in the coveted 2014 MLB draft, the additional draft slot $$$ and considerable financial flexibilty in 2015.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Bailey to be tendered?

    I dont trust Billy Beane on any Trades. Most of the guys you listed stay healthy. Pitch an entire season. Sox were smart they would make Webster a reilever. They did it with Papelbon, a so-so Starter in the Minors, but made a good career as a closer. You might get some growing pains, but that is the life with kids. Develop a Closer in the Minors. 2 Pitches thats all you need. Koji showed what you can do when throw strikes.

    Thats whats sad about Bard he had it, good fastball and great slider. Then we made him a starter.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Bailey to be tendered?

    I'd keep the faith.....$4m (hard to believe he'd be awarded so much) is only about 2% of the Sox' budget and if he can stay healthy Bailey will be a stud as he has been when healthy.

    It's not an Ellsbury situation i.e. Ells is not "injury prone", he's been hit by two comets....Bailey has had ongoing arm issues.

    Look at it from another perspective:  if Bailey was waived by another team would the Sox jump in to sign him based on his past performance?  Hell yeah, his ceiling remains very high.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from HailToTheKing. Show HailToTheKing's posts

    Re: Bailey to be tendered?

    In response to djcbuffum's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Wait a second. If he's on the 60-day-DL, then he's not on the 40-man roster, right? If he's not on the 40-man-roster, then he doesn't count towards the luxury tax, right? Or am I wrong on that?

    If I'm right then where's the downside? 

    [/QUOTE]


    His contract WILL count towards the luxury tax should he be tendered a contract and it's signed.  Any major league contract that is gaurateed WILL go towards the luxary tax for that season....injury or no injury.  It's kind of a gray area in the whole 40 man roster thing....kind of like they're separate.....but not really....

     
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  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Bailey to be tendered?

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I dont trust Billy Beane on any Trades. Most of the guys you listed stay healthy. Pitch an entire season. Sox were smart they would make Webster a reilever. They did it with Papelbon, a so-so Starter in the Minors, but made a good career as a closer. You might get some growing pains, but that is the life with kids. Develop a Closer in the Minors. 2 Pitches thats all you need. Koji showed what you can do when throw strikes.

    Thats whats sad about Bard he had it, good fastball and great slider. Then we made him a starter.

    [/QUOTE]


    Ben was in a tough spot when he took over. He didnt have much room to do anything, so Im sure some moves werent his first options as he was very limited due to the payroll.

    Bard was a headcase and would have faultered regardless IMHO.

     
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  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: Bailey to be tendered?

    Why would they ever offer a contract to him? No one else will at least near the estimated price tag of $4.3M which is what is expected in arb. Prorated over what he will play, they would be offering him the equivalent of an $8-9M contract.

    Non-tender him and try to get him for $1-2M, if that.

    What has he done with the Red Sox warranting that.

     
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