Baltimore is "Our Daddy" !!!

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from SFBostonFan. Show SFBostonFan's posts

    Baltimore is "Our Daddy" !!!

    The last 2 days I see our # for winning a wild card spot being reduced as we back in as others lose. I would not have the chutspah to uncork the champagne. Hate to bring up old wounds but this team knocked us out in 2011 when we couldn't win 1 game in the last series & Yankees couldn't win 1 game vs Tampa & had a 7-0 lead in the last.


    I feel that Dempster & Peavey pitched well. Dempster only gave up 3 hits/2 runs but we only got 3 hits but did have 6 walks and 5 in first 3 innings so there were base runners left on. Last night we got 15 hits yet 3 runs...men left on base and lack of a key hit killed us...bad luck perhaps but this Orioles team has tremendous confidence against us & if they sweep tonight they know the last 3 games are at Camden field. Yup, we could be in the driver's seat to give them a wild card spot.

    Many fear Tampa as having great pitching(offense weak) and NY as having good hitting(pitching weak) but I fear the Orioles who feel they have our number and their pitching and hitting ain't bad either. Winning the wildcard and division for us is inevitable but the goal should be to have the best record for home field advantage.

     
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  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from SFBostonFan. Show SFBostonFan's posts

    Re: Baltimore is

    I'm not in the camp of resting players, old ones or not, once we've sewed up our desired spot. If one is injured, like Victorino/Ellsbury, yes, but I believe that momentum is very important and players can get rusty and there will be 6 months or so to go fishing, play golf etc. & we don't want it to be sooner than our goal of a World Series.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from ANONMD08. Show ANONMD08's posts

    Re: Baltimore is

    In response to SFBostonFan's comment:

    The last 2 days I see our # for winning a wild card spot being reduced as we back in as others lose. I would not have the chutspah to uncork the champagne. Hate to bring up old wounds but this team knocked us out in 2011 when we couldn't win 1 game in the last series & Yankees couldn't win 1 game vs Tampa & had a 7-0 lead in the last.


    I feel that Dempster & Peavey pitched well. Dempster only gave up 3 hits/2 runs but we only got 3 hits but did have 6 walks and 5 in first 3 innings so there were base runners left on. Last night we got 15 hits yet 3 runs...men left on base and lack of a key hit killed us...bad luck perhaps but this Orioles team has tremendous confidence against us & if they sweep tonight they know the last 3 games are at Camden field. Yup, we could be in the driver's seat to give them a wild card spot.

    Many fear Tampa as having great pitching(offense weak) and NY as having good hitting(pitching weak) but I fear the Orioles who feel they have our number and their pitching and hitting ain't bad either. Winning the wildcard and division for us is inevitable but the goal should be to have the best record for home field advantage.




    The problem is that you have to knock out their starters early. Too many squandered opportunities like when the Sox had bases loaded and ZERO outs in the third inning and couldn't score no runs. no excuse to have 13 hits and 3 runs. To make it worse I tought the sox might have shot their load against NY. Could be a sweep tonight because boston has not beaten tillman all year. What I'm hoping for is that tampa takes care of business and eliminates Baltimore. The Orioles will be the death to us if we meet them in a series. 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from SFBostonFan. Show SFBostonFan's posts

    Re: Baltimore is

    In response to BigPapiforever's comment:

     

    sfbostonfan:

     

    Nice post but I suspect you won't make many friends with it. 

     


    Are we running a popularity contest here among posters ? I never insult another poster and respect everyone's opinion. I don't have thin skin...I am a former Marine !!! And isn't this a forum for offering one's opinion ? I am a dyeheart Sox fan & suffer when they lose, especially when I feel they should have won.

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: Baltimore is

    In response to SFBostonFan's comment:

    The last 2 days I see our # for winning a wild card spot being reduced as we back in as others lose. I would not have the chutspah to uncork the champagne. Hate to bring up old wounds but this team knocked us out in 2011 when we couldn't win 1 game in the last series & Yankees couldn't win 1 game vs Tampa & had a 7-0 lead in the last.


    I feel that Dempster & Peavey pitched well. Dempster only gave up 3 hits/2 runs but we only got 3 hits but did have 6 walks and 5 in first 3 innings so there were base runners left on. Last night we got 15 hits yet 3 runs...men left on base and lack of a key hit killed us...bad luck perhaps but this Orioles team has tremendous confidence against us & if they sweep tonight they know the last 3 games are at Camden field. Yup, we could be in the driver's seat to give them a wild card spot.

    Many fear Tampa as having great pitching(offense weak) and NY as having good hitting(pitching weak) but I fear the Orioles who feel they have our number and their pitching and hitting ain't bad either. Winning the wildcard and division for us is inevitable but the goal should be to have the best record for home field advantage.



    But how many pitchers did the Orioles used against Boston in the last two games??  They used like 12 pitchers.  We can not judge on a possible post season team about how good is their pitching cuz of all the september call ups

     
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  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Baltimore is

    In response to ANONMD08's comment:

    In response to SFBostonFan's comment:

     

    The last 2 days I see our # for winning a wild card spot being reduced as we back in as others lose. I would not have the chutspah to uncork the champagne. Hate to bring up old wounds but this team knocked us out in 2011 when we couldn't win 1 game in the last series & Yankees couldn't win 1 game vs Tampa & had a 7-0 lead in the last.


    I feel that Dempster & Peavey pitched well. Dempster only gave up 3 hits/2 runs but we only got 3 hits but did have 6 walks and 5 in first 3 innings so there were base runners left on. Last night we got 15 hits yet 3 runs...men left on base and lack of a key hit killed us...bad luck perhaps but this Orioles team has tremendous confidence against us & if they sweep tonight they know the last 3 games are at Camden field. Yup, we could be in the driver's seat to give them a wild card spot.

    Many fear Tampa as having great pitching(offense weak) and NY as having good hitting(pitching weak) but I fear the Orioles who feel they have our number and their pitching and hitting ain't bad either. Winning the wildcard and division for us is inevitable but the goal should be to have the best record for home field advantage.

     




    The problem is that you have to knock out their starters early. Too many squandered opportunities like when the Sox had bases loaded and ZERO outs in the third inning and couldn't score no runs. no excuse to have 13 hits and 3 runs. To make it worse I tought the sox might have shot their load against NY. Could be a sweep tonight because boston has not beaten tillman all year. What I'm hoping for is that tampa takes care of business and eliminates Baltimore. The Orioles will be the death to us if we meet them in a series. 

     



    There were lots of problems with last night's game, both as a result of poor execution by the players and stupid tactics by the manager who refused to put his team in the best possible position to win the game. For example, if the shift is on against Ortiz and the whole left side of the IF is open, with runners on base why not bunt the ball down the 3B line instead of GIDP as he did? Why did Victorino bunt with Pedey on first and no one out early in the game (third inning, I believe). That worked out, but it was STUPID tactically. Had he moved Pedey to second and made an out the odds of scoring are REDUCED. And the bases loaded, no one out....and NO RUNS?? Give me a break. Why did Farrell not use our designated base stealer earlier? Why did he allow Ross to hit in the sixth inning with the lead run at second base? Ross is useless at the plate; he should have been PH for so as to give us the best possible chance to win. Why didn't Farrell have someone up at the start of the sixth inning when it was clear that Peavy was losing it-instead of waiting for him to give up the lead run?
    Too many brain dead decisions by the manager last night. We deserved to lose, and we did. Lets hope everyone wakes up soon. We have still clinched NOTHING.

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: Baltimore is

    6-9 vs the o's this year.  with 4 more to go.

    we could end up having better head-to-head record but going in healthy is more important.

    but remember...if anything else...the 2013 RS have been extremely consistent.  they played .598 ball first half and thus far .607 ball second half.  i do not anticipate long losing streak now.

    Lackey gets a W tonight and all will be well.....

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from MustangBri. Show MustangBri's posts

    Re: Baltimore is


    These last two games were blown by the Sox lack of clutch offense for failing to put Baltimore away early.  Both games they got 2 - 0 leads had multiple players on base with little to 0 outs and didn't come through with a clutch hit.  They let Baltimore hang around, and then it was our BP vs. their BP.  I personally could see this coming once again last night when they failed to score with the bases loaded and none out.  Fortunately,  Oakland and Detroit lost also...  so I guess it's "no harm, no foul"  and one step closer to the end of the regular season.

    I also don't want to see Baltimore make it to the PS,  but fear Boston is going to write their ticket to the show with those last 3 games in Camden Yards.  At that point we will be resting regulars and even giving our big 3 SP's a skip in the rotation.  The team I would prefer the Sox to play in the 1st round would be Cleveland...  their SP is weak,  and we usually have their number...  as opposed to playing Tampa or Baltimore.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from SFBostonFan. Show SFBostonFan's posts

    Re: Baltimore is

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to ANONMD08's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to SFBostonFan's comment:

     

    The last 2 days I see our # for winning a wild card spot being reduced as we back in as others lose. I would not have the chutspah to uncork the champagne. Hate to bring up old wounds but this team knocked us out in 2011 when we couldn't win 1 game in the last series & Yankees couldn't win 1 game vs Tampa & had a 7-0 lead in the last.


    I feel that Dempster & Peavey pitched well. Dempster only gave up 3 hits/2 runs but we only got 3 hits but did have 6 walks and 5 in first 3 innings so there were base runners left on. Last night we got 15 hits yet 3 runs...men left on base and lack of a key hit killed us...bad luck perhaps but this Orioles team has tremendous confidence against us & if they sweep tonight they know the last 3 games are at Camden field. Yup, we could be in the driver's seat to give them a wild card spot.

    Many fear Tampa as having great pitching(offense weak) and NY as having good hitting(pitching weak) but I fear the Orioles who feel they have our number and their pitching and hitting ain't bad either. Winning the wildcard and division for us is inevitable but the goal should be to have the best record for home field advantage.

     




    The problem is that you have to knock out their starters early. Too many squandered opportunities like when the Sox had bases loaded and ZERO outs in the third inning and couldn't score no runs. no excuse to have 13 hits and 3 runs. To make it worse I tought the sox might have shot their load against NY. Could be a sweep tonight because boston has not beaten tillman all year. What I'm hoping for is that tampa takes care of business and eliminates Baltimore. The Orioles will be the death to us if we meet them in a series. 

     

     

     



    There were lots of problems with last night's game, both as a result of poor execution by the players and stupid tactics by the manager who refused to put his team in the best possible position to win the game. For example, if the shift is on against Ortiz and the whole left side of the IF is open, with runners on base why not bunt the ball down the 3B line instead of GIDP as he did? Why did Victorino bunt with Pedey on first and no one out early in the game (third inning, I believe). That worked out, but it was STUPID tactically. Had he moved Pedey to second and made an out the odds of scoring are REDUCED. And the bases loaded, no one out....and NO RUNS?? Give me a break. Why did Farrell not use our designated base stealer earlier? Why did he allow Ross to hit in the sixth inning with the lead run at second base? Ross is useless at the plate; he should have been PH for so as to give us the best possible chance to win. Why didn't Farrell have someone up at the start of the sixth inning when it was clear that Peavy was losing it-instead of waiting for him to give up the lead run?
    Too many brain dead decisions by the manager last night. We deserved to lose, and we did. Lets hope everyone wakes up soon. We have still clinched NOTHING.

     

     

     

     




    =====================================

     

    Pumpsie...I relived all of those blundering issues you described and agree. On the live chat I recalled someone saying that Ortiz is our best hitter, he is not paid to bunt. I commented that a player should make a play that is best for the team at the moment in which to score and I agree. The 3rd baseman was in the 2nd baseman spot...my God a man in a wheel chair could have reached 1st safely with a bunt down the 3rd base line. And many who bunt are still tossed out but they move the lead runner which is the main purpose but Oriz could have bunted it forcibly out to left field the opening was so large. And, yup, not batting Salty or even Lavarnway for Ross was stupidity.

    Let's hope we don't get a 2 run lead tonight in the first 2 innings...HA ! Have to keep my humor up. Wouldn't it be nice to get our 15 hits tonight and a reasonable 7-8 runs !

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Baltimore is

    Showalter clearly made it a mission to reverse the mojo with the Sox when he came on.  All that smack talk a few years ago got his boys honed in on taking it to the Sox.  He basically said "no more shin box Tommy" to the Sox, and they have been sticking it to us ever since.  

    The only club who has been able to stop the magic this year.

    I really hope they don't make the playoffs.

             
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: Baltimore is

    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:

    Showalter clearly made it a mission to reverse the mojo with the Sox when he came on.  All that smack talk a few years ago got his boys honed in on taking it to the Sox.  He basically said "no more shin box Tommy" to the Sox, and they have been sticking it to us ever since.  

    The only club who has been able to stop the magic this year.

    I really hope they don't make the playoffs.

             



    But Showatler get to use like 20 bullpen pitchers to fight off against Boston.  That is why he is so good in the month of September against Boston in the last two years.

    Once post season come, Showalter will only have 10 to 11 pitchers to use against Boston.  

    I wouldnt worry about the Orioles in the playoff.  They will be all worn out by the time the post season come cuz of their difficult schedule.  AFter tonite game, they got Tampa for four games which that is not a good news cuz Tilman will be missing that series after he pitch tonite.  

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Baltimore is

    Orioles have a 10 game season. 6-4 or better and they should be in Play-offs. Showalter will use the Janitor to pitch if he has to.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: Baltimore is

    In response to slasher9's comment:

     

    6-9 vs the o's this year.  with 4 more to go.

    we could end up having better head-to-head record but going in healthy is more important.

    but remember...if anything else...the 2013 RS have been extremely consistent.  they played .598 ball first half and thus far .607 ball second half.  i do not anticipate long losing streak now.

    Lackey gets a W tonight and all will be well.....

     




     

    Yup. We have gone 11-5 so far this month, almost entirely against playoff or playoff-contending teams like Detroit, Tampa, and New York. Two very frustrating losses the past couple of days, to a team that has played us tough for several years now, but nothing worth panicking over. To say that we are "backing into the playoffs," as I have seen several times now, is rather silly.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from LloydDobler. Show LloydDobler's posts

    Re: Baltimore is

    In response to Flapjack07's comment:

    Yup. We have gone 11-5 so far this month, almost entirely against playoff or playoff-contending teams like Detroit, Tampa, and New York. Two very frustrating losses the past couple of days, to a team that has played us tough for several years now, but nothing worth panicking over. To say that we are "backing into the playoffs," as I have seen several times now, is rather silly.



    Exactly. Two very frustrating losses, to be sure, but the Sox still have the best record in MLB and, as you said, are 11-5 this month.

    The panic on the board today is hilarious, but it's also familiar. In 2007, I freaked out with every loss down the stretch. In mid-September, they were swept by the very mediocre Blue Jays. and I was convinced they were done. Then, when the Sox won the Series, I was more relieved than happy.

    No more. Last night sucked, sure, but I'm enjoying the ride. After all, I expected us to have been eliminated long ago.

    Oh, and my dream is to clinch before going to Baltimore, but sweep them anyway to screw them. I remember how in 2011 they acted like they had won the Series when they came back  to beat us in game 162.

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Baltimore is

    In response to LloydDobler's comment:

    In response to Flapjack07's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Yup. We have gone 11-5 so far this month, almost entirely against playoff or playoff-contending teams like Detroit, Tampa, and New York. Two very frustrating losses the past couple of days, to a team that has played us tough for several years now, but nothing worth panicking over. To say that we are "backing into the playoffs," as I have seen several times now, is rather silly.

     



    Exactly. Two very frustrating losses, to be sure, but the Sox still have the best record in MLB and, as you said, are 11-5 this month.

     

    The panic on the board today is hilarious, but it's also familiar. In 2007, I freaked out with every loss down the stretch. In mid-September, they were swept by the very mediocre Blue Jays. and I was convinced they were done. Then, when the Sox won the Series, I was more relieved than happy.

    No more. Last night sucked, sure, but I'm enjoying the ride. After all, I expected us to have been eliminated long ago.

    Oh, and my dream is to clinch before going to Baltimore, but sweep them anyway to screw them. I remember how in 2011 they acted like they had won the Series when they came back  to beat us in game 162.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I don't see any panic here, just a little dose of reality. The truth is that so far we have clinched nothing. Is it likely we will win the ALE? Absolutely! Its going to be hard to oinglose that. Its also likely we will be the best AL team this year by way of W-L. Still, the playoffs is all about momentum. Whoever wins it will be the team playing the best baseball among a group of very good teams. If we are dogging it going in, if we are failing to play smart baseball, if we are not executing, and if Farrell remains somnolent, our trip to the playoffs will be a short one.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from SFBostonFan. Show SFBostonFan's posts

    Re: Baltimore is

    I copied and pasted this from the Game Thread that many of you may not access:

    Yup, I know we are within 1-2 days of clinching a wild card and it's almost an impossibility for us not to win the division BUT I WANT A WIN TONIGHT !!! We need the Orioles to question their almost invincibility attitude I am sure they have facing us. We are our own enemies, however, as getting 15 hits and 3 runs hasn't happened to us in 30 years. Can you imagine sweeping us at Fenway and the confidence they would have going for the last 3 in Camden Field & their winning perhaps a 2/3 series guarantees them a wild card ? Let's at least teach them some humility with a loss tonight and maybe 15 hits and a more reasonable 7-8 runs ! Let's not start with a 2-0 lead & let it stagnate while their starters get stronger & play until the 6th inning.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from LloydDobler. Show LloydDobler's posts

    Re: Baltimore is

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    I don't see any panic here, just a little dose of reality. The truth is that so far we have clinched nothing. Is it likely we will win the ALE? Absolutely! Its going to be hard to oinglose that. Its also likely we will be the best AL team this year by way of W-L. Still, the playoffs is all about momentum. Whoever wins it will be the team playing the best baseball among a group of very good teams. If we are dogging it going in, if we are failing to play smart baseball, if we are not executing, and if Farrell remains somnolent, our trip to the playoffs will be a short one.



    Maybe, but I think momentum is overrated, or at least overanalyzed.  In '07, the Sox closed the regular season 6-7 in their last 13 games. The Giants split their last 10 last year. The postseason is a totally new season.

     

     
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  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Baltimore is

    We can analyze all we want to, but the simple facts are that the Orioles are a good team and have done well against us for now the third season.  This year we whomp the Yankees, the Yankees whomp Baltimore, and Baltimore whomps us.  That's baseball. 

    I think the Orioles have a pretty good lineup with no weak sisters at any position.  Roberts a little old at 2B, but still a good hitter.  Jones a showboat in CF, but a good all around player.  Machado unreal at 3B, Wieters an all-star at catcher.  Markakis solid in RF plus the great arm.  Davis 51 dingers at 1B overlooks he can also get a strategic single when needed as he did last night. Decent leftfielder, McClouth, and SS (?).   The weakness is their pitching, but in the first two games their pitching has been very good.  I would love to say the key is to get to their bullpen, but their bullpen in these two games has been excellent. 

    Duquette the GM since 2011 has done a pretty good job.  Interestingly, their attendance lags 4000/game behind the Nationals, about 40 miles away in DC.  The reason is that Washington, including suburbs in Maryland and Virginia, is a much larger population center and now has its own decent (unheard of in Washington history) team and a very nice ballpark, not as nice as Camden Yards, but very good sightlines. 

    Don't get me wrong.  I hate, hate losing to the Orioles, but I'm trying to be rational. 

     
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  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Baltimore is

    We have still clinched NOTHING.

    Actually Pumpsie, we did.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Baltimore is

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    We have still clinched NOTHING.

    Actually Pumpsie, we did.



    Actually Breidey, my statement was correct when I made it. Typical of you to take things out of temporal context....expected. Nonetheless, I am glad we did it and will be glad when we get the best overall record. Magic number now 7.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Baltimore is

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to LloydDobler's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to Flapjack07's comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    Yup. We have gone 11-5 so far this month, almost entirely against playoff or playoff-contending teams like Detroit, Tampa, and New York. Two very frustrating losses the past couple of days, to a team that has played us tough for several years now, but nothing worth panicking over. To say that we are "backing into the playoffs," as I have seen several times now, is rather silly.

     

     



    Exactly. Two very frustrating losses, to be sure, but the Sox still have the best record in MLB and, as you said, are 11-5 this month.

     

     

    The panic on the board today is hilarious, but it's also familiar. In 2007, I freaked out with every loss down the stretch. In mid-September, they were swept by the very mediocre Blue Jays. and I was convinced they were done. Then, when the Sox won the Series, I was more relieved than happy.

    No more. Last night sucked, sure, but I'm enjoying the ride. After all, I expected us to have been eliminated long ago.

    Oh, and my dream is to clinch before going to Baltimore, but sweep them anyway to screw them. I remember how in 2011 they acted like they had won the Series when they came back  to beat us in game 162.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I don't see any panic here, just a little dose of reality. The truth is that so far we have clinched nothing. Is it likely we will win the ALE? Absolutely! Its going to be hard to oinglose that. Its also likely we will be the best AL team this year by way of W-L. Still, the playoffs is all about momentum. Whoever wins it will be the team playing the best baseball among a group of very good teams. If we are dogging it going in, if we are failing to play smart baseball, if we are not executing, and if Farrell remains somnolent, our trip to the playoffs will be a short one.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    There are plenty of studies out there disproving the 'momentum' theory.  Here is a snippet of one-

    The data shows that from a predictive standpoint, a playoff spot is like a parking space: you can enter front first, or you can back into it, and in the grand scheme, it makes little difference. What I did in this 2009 study was examine the records of all playoff-bound teams from 1995-2008, searching for correlations between the records over their final seven, 14, 21 and 28 games — “weeks,” essentially, though the schedule didn’t always line up as such, and I wanted to ensure uniformity in my sample sizes. The correlations — which is to say, the predictive values — that I found between those segments and Division Series records were negligible and clustered around zero, ranging from .02 to -.04; keep in mind that a perfectly positive correlation is 1.0, a perfectly negative one is −1.0. Extending the latter to include the subsequent rounds, the largest correlation I found in either direction was -.12, between a team’s record over the final 21 games and their postseason won-loss record. Even then, the correlation was negative, which is to say that the ever-so-slight advantage was held by teams that actually fared slightly worse, perhaps because many had sewn up playoff berths and could afford to rest their regulars down the stretch.

     
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