Re: Bard or Papelbon
posted at 4/19/2011 4:34 PM EDT
In Response to Re: Bard or Papelbon
[QUOTE]A couple of thoughts. I think 2 years for $20M for Paplebon if he has a year more like his 2008 than his 2010 is a pipe dream, it will take more years and probably more $ per year. I think the RS would be more than happy assuming Papelbon has a vintage Papelbon 2011 campaign to pay him $20m for 2 seasons. Considering they were willing to pay him $12M for a single season coming off arguably his worst season in the majors this year that is a sweetheart, club friendly deal and not likely to be near the best offer Papelbon would be tendered. Jarret, it is pretty difficult to gauge where the market for a player might emerge. Did anyone on the planet have Jayson Werth going to the Nats for a $125M deal? The money to pay the big salary bumps that are already on the books for 2012 is going to come from some combination of veterans walking. Papelbon's advantage will be his age if he performs well in terms of being retained. Ortiz certainly would have to sign for less, as would Drew to stay. But let's not forget that the RS payroll without a single new FA addition will rise dramatically. Crawford ($5.5M), A-Gon ($15M), Pedroia ($3M), (Buchhollz $3M) and Lester ($2M). That's $28.5M. Now Drew, Ortiz, Scutaro and Cameron clear far more than that before replacement costs ($39.75M) so it isn't imperative to get out from under a $12M annual bill for a closer. It will be the year Papelbon puts up, how the RS forecast his durability and the years required to retain him weighed against how ready they feel Bard is or is not, if Jenks rebounds etcetera. But I don't see Papelbon signing a $20M deal anymore than Craford signed a $80M deal or A-Gon signed a $100M deal. This is Papelbon's big pay day. He risked going year-to-year to get here and he should and IMO will look to maximize that pay day. Hard to see whether his goals and organizational goals will converge. Just my take
Posted by fivekatz[/QUOTE]
Overall good post Katz, one thing though. Since you are using a cash basis for payroll, you also need to include the signing bonuses paid out to players this year (not just their salaries).
Crawford had a $6M signing bonus this year, so while his salary was $14M, for cashflow purposes he accounted for $20M in 2011. Crawford's salary increases to $19.5M in 2012, but for cash flow purposes, his hit drops by $500K.
AGon is in the same boat, with his $6M signing bonus to be paid this year. He goes from cashflow figures of $12.3M in 2011 to $21M in 2012.
Buchholz also had a $1M signing bonus as part of his extension, so for cashflow purposes he only has a $2M raise next year.
That drops the raises for next year that you mentioned (on a cashflow basis) from $28.5M down to $17.5M. You left out raises for some arb eligible players (Lowrie, Salty, Bard, Aceves, Ells), so lets call it $31M in total raises on a cashflow basis as a rough estimate.
All of this is a moot point though IMO, seeing as the Sox have operated on an AAV basis for contracts and not an annual cashflow basis in recent history. Cashflow is certainly worth considering though.
For AAV the big contracts coming off the books are Paps ($12M), Drew ($14M), Papi ($12.5M), Cam ($7.75M) and Scutaro ($6.25M). These total $52.5M, so there is certainly room to re-sign Papi to a smaller deal if the FO decides to go that route, or they could bring back Paps if the price is right. Or both.
The Sox will likely try to get back below the luxury tax next year, which may translate to cutting $5M or so from payroll depending on what happens with baseball revenues (and thus the tax threshold). The FO will certainly still have moeny to play with if they continue using the AAV basis.
It's worth noting that changes to the CBA may change the way the tax is calculated and those changes could cause the Sox to alter their AAV approach (if the tax goes to a 40 man roster cashflow basis for instance.
One other note, that I just realized that I had forgotten. Scutaro has a $1.5M buyout if he isn't back next year, which would count against the tax. His in-house replacement however does not have an additional charge as both Navarro and Iglesias are already on the 40-man roster and count against the cap. I'm projecting Iglesias as his replacement, who is on a major league deal with an AAV of just over $2M against the tax ($2.0625M).
That became a much longer post than I expected.......