Bard or Papelbon

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from jb12bb. Show jb12bb's posts

    Bard or Papelbon

    Bard has been dissapointing so far this season with his drop in velocity from a mindblowing 100/99 to a consistent 97/95.  His other pitches dont seem to have the bite they used to.

    Papelbon looks sharp and has his bite on the breaking balls and his fastball has come alive on his walk year.

    Now if Papelbon shines and Bard tales off do you see the RS resigning Pap after this season?  Thoughts?
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from jamesey271975. Show jamesey271975's posts

    Re: Bard or Papelbon

    Paplebon
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: Bard or Papelbon

    No I don't see the RS resigning Papelbon because I don't think Theo Epstein is going to do a long term 8 figure a year deal with any closer and Papelbon has taken the risky route (year to year in arb years) to get to that long term 8 figure a year deal. And the years, not the 8 figure per year is the deal breaker for Boston.

    The Jenks signing was the Bard "insurance policy" IMO.

    That said Papelbon has looked solid in early stages of 2011 and is the closer today, hands down.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hetchinspete. Show Hetchinspete's posts

    Re: Bard or Papelbon

    In Response to Re: Bard or Papelbon:
    [QUOTE]No I don't see the RS resigning Papelbon because I don't think Theo Epstein is going to do a long term 8 figure a year deal with any closer and Papelbon has taken the risky route (year to year in arb years) to get to that long term 8 figure a year deal. And the years, not the 8 figure per year is the deal breaker for Boston. The Jenks signing was the Bard "insurance policy" IMO. That said Papelbon has looked solid in early stages of 2011 and is the closer today, hands down.
    Posted by fivekatz[/QUOTE]

    FiveKatz,

    I hate to think the Jenks was signed as an insurance policy. Locals complain about Paps record last year with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. Jenks had a 3.71 ERA and 1.275 WHIP in 09 and last year his ERA was huge at 4.40 with a 1.367 WHIP. If Jenks is an insurance policy, it's short term at best, he's not a long term solution based on his last two seasons. Just my thoughts.

    If Pap comes back and has a great season I'd hope Theo would resign him
    as except for last year he's been at the top of the closer list in the Amercian League for the previous 4+ seasons. Even the best players can have offseasons.
    The only thing, I'd be hesitant to sign more than a 3-4 year contract for any closer.
     
    Hetchinspete.  
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from jesseyeric. Show jesseyeric's posts

    Re: Bard or Papelbon

    I think Mo's biggest deal was for 4 years. I cannot see a closer ever being signed to a longer term deal than that. I think Paps would take a 3 year deal with a 4th year option. If he continues as he is going, then figure 12 mil a year will be the going rate.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from jesseyeric. Show jesseyeric's posts

    Re: Bard or Papelbon

    Dear RSN

    Please rid yourself of Paps at the end of this year. Replace him with Bard and Jenks. You will certainly make this Yankee fan a happy man by doing this.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxfan791. Show redsoxfan791's posts

    Re: Bard or Papelbon

    Really?  We're really debating this?
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from jimdavis. Show jimdavis's posts

    Re: Bard or Papelbon

    Jess:

    You are a smart guy.  Blown saves in 2010 or not, with Paps you know you have an effective closer who can dominate.  If he goes, the question marks start and and effort to "find" a replacement begins if Bard or Jenks stubbs a toe.  Then people will be wishing Theo resigned Paps as he lights it up for someone else.  I can see it all coming and so can you.  Why can't anyone else?
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from jesseyeric. Show jesseyeric's posts

    Re: Bard or Papelbon

    In Response to Re: Bard or Papelbon:
    [QUOTE]Jess: You are a smart guy.  Blown saves in 2010 or not, with Paps you know you have an effective closer who can dominate.  If he goes, the question marks start and and effort to "find" a replacement begins if Bard or Jenks stubbs a toe.  Then people will be wishing Theo resigned Paps as he lights it up for someone else.  I can see it all coming and so can you.  Why can't anyone else?
    Posted by jimdavis[/QUOTE]

    And they definitely will stub a toe.

    Here is a funny story. I cannot remember the date but it was back in the 90's and Mo was on the 15 day DL list. While on the DL list, Mike Stanton did a very good job filling in. A buddy of mine started screaming that Stanton should now be the closer and Mo should go back to the set-up role. Now my friend thinks he is the greatest Yankee fan of all-time, but some of the sh*t that comes out of his mouth is amazing. If the Yanks actually did everything he thought they should, they would be a middle of the pack team.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from summerof67. Show summerof67's posts

    Re: Bard or Papelbon

    I gotta think Bard for the long term.  Papelbon is in a walk year and he is motivated to pump his value by being sharp.  As an emotional performer, this means Papelbon will be above-average in performance.  Wonder how he will do next year on a long-term contract with the Yankees or the Angels.  (Katz is right. Papelbon is gone after this year because of the years and the mileage, not the sticker price.)
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Bard or Papelbon

    In Response to Re: Bard or Papelbon:
    [QUOTE]I think the FO has already made their decision and Paps is gone after this year.  Wheeler, Bard, Jenks is a good cure for the pen moving forward.  I think they are already counting the dollars from Paps and Ortiz coming off the books.  
    Posted by jarretfromportsmouth[/QUOTE]

    I disagree jarret.  I don't think the FO has made any decisions on Paps or Ortiz at this point.  It would be premature to do so.  What if they both have outstanding years and the alternatives aren't nearly as good?  They will deal with these decisions when the time comes.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from jimdavis. Show jimdavis's posts

    Re: Bard or Papelbon

    In Response to Re: Bard or Papelbon:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Bard or Papelbon : And they definitely will stub a toe. Here is a funny story. I cannot remember the date but it was back in the 90's and Mo was on the 15 day DL list. While on the DL list, Mike Stanton did a very good job filling in. A buddy of mine started screaming that Stanton should now be the closer and Mo should go back to the set-up role. Now my friend thinks he is the greatest Yankee fan of all-time, but some of the sh*t that comes out of his mouth is amazing. If the Yanks actually did everything he thought they should, they would be a middle of the pack team.
    Posted by jesseyeric[/QUOTE]

    Your story speaks directly to many things on this forum.  I try to be patient with the team because baseball demands patience even the though fanbase demands immediate results.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from jesseyeric. Show jesseyeric's posts

    Re: Bard or Papelbon

    Hey 67 - do you really think that the Yanks wants Paps? I am thinking no on that.

    As of today, Mo is 35 saves behind Trevor Hoffman's all-time saves record. And although he is off to one of his best starts, I am not sure that Mo will get there this year. If he doesn't and barring any major injury, Mo will be the closer for the Yanks in 2012. Then there is the Soriano deal to consider as well.

    IMO, Paps gets a 3 year, 35 million deal from Boston. 40 million if he has a dominating year.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from niz-58. Show niz-58's posts

    Re: Bard or Papelbon

    In Response to Re: Bard or Papelbon:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Bard or Papelbon : You may be right, but I don't see Ortiz being brough back at 12 mil, so if he's back it's gonna be for less money, so in a sense he'd be the cheaper alternative.   As for Paps, do you think they are going to give him what he would be looking for if he has an outstanding season?  He'd probably want 15 per year and like 4 years.  I just don't see the Sox paying that.
    Posted by jarretfromportsmouth[/QUOTE]

     I would think that Ortiz has a pretty good idea of what DHs are getting these days. I agree Ortiz will be back for much less money.

    The Sox will try to resign Papelbon, but if there's another team out there that's willing to pay any closer not named Mo 15 per year, then it's hello Bard.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: Bard or Papelbon

    In Response to Re: Bard or Papelbon:
    [QUOTE]Jess: You are a smart guy.  Blown saves in 2010 or not, with Paps you know you have an effective closer who can dominate.  If he goes, the question marks start and and effort to "find" a replacement begins if Bard or Jenks stubbs a toe.  Then people will be wishing Theo resigned Paps as he lights it up for someone else.  I can see it all coming and so can you.  Why can't anyone else?
    Posted by jimdavis[/QUOTE]You could be right about them regretting letting Papelbon walk if they do. But there are far more stories about teams regretting $10M plus multi-years deals for closers than there are stories about the one that got away. And I happen to think that is the elephant in the room.

    Now by the end of 2011 the RS perspective may change quite a bit based on need and what they have in the system but IMO they came into 2011 with a succession plan in hand if necessary but are well run enough not to be married to last winter's plan if circumstance dictates a different direction.

    But if you put odds on Paplebon being signed to a long term deal on the end of the year they IMO would be less than 50-50 because of the risk reward.

    Just my take


     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from BaseballGM. Show BaseballGM's posts

    Re: Bard or Papelbon

    Bard is more likely to walk people. What makes Mo great isn't just how well he throws that "cutter", it's his pinpoint control. Papelbon doesn't have that, but Bard has less of it than Papelbon.

    The Red Sox don't get better by just deciding to let Papelbon go, though a contract for more than 2 years and top dollar is cost exceeds benefit in that they can get something else of better value for the money. But a 2 year deal at higher closer baser rate shouldn't be just dismissed. I'll be suprised if there is a market for more than 2 years or a market for a base that is near record closer territory.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from niz-58. Show niz-58's posts

    Re: Bard or Papelbon

    In Response to Re: Bard or Papelbon:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Bard or Papelbon : With Papelbon the better question might be who has the money and needs a closer?  The Phillies.  They have proven they will spend, spend, spend.  They have an option on Lidge for 2012, but with him making 11.5 already, he needs to have a big year for them to exercise it.  I think his option would pay him 12.5. IF Papelbon has a big year and their options are Lidge at 12.5 or find someone on the market, I think they let him walk, and I would guess they would be willing to put up big money to anchor their pen.  Outside Lidge no one has emerged as a closer.  Lidge has been shaky.  
    Posted by jarretfromportsmouth[/QUOTE]

    I agree. I'll be interesting to see what happens with Lidge. If the Phillies thought they had a shot at Papelbon, I wonder if they would let Lidge walk, if he has a good year.
    I don't see any closer getting 15 mil/year. If it's 12-14, I could see the Sox resigning Paps for three years.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: Bard or Papelbon

    A couple of thoughts.

    I think 2 years for $20M for Paplebon if he has a year more like his 2008 than his 2010 is a pipe dream, it will take more years and probably more $ per year. I think the RS would be more than happy assuming Papelbon has a vintage Papelbon 2011 campaign to pay him $20m for 2 seasons.

    Considering they were willing to pay him $12M for a single season coming off arguably his worst season in the majors this year that is a sweetheart, club friendly deal and not likely to be near the best offer Papelbon would be tendered. 

    Jarret, it is pretty difficult to gauge where the market for a player might emerge. Did anyone on the planet have Jayson Werth going to the Nats for a $125M deal?

    The money to pay the big salary bumps that are already on the books for 2012 is going to come from some combination of veterans walking. Papelbon's advantage will be his age if he performs well in terms of being retained. Ortiz certainly would have to sign for less, as would Drew to stay. But let's not forget that the RS payroll without a single new FA addition will rise dramatically. Crawford ($5.5M), A-Gon ($15M), Pedroia ($3M), (Buchhollz $3M) and Lester ($2M). That's $28.5M.

    Now Drew, Ortiz, Scutaro and Cameron clear far more than that before replacement costs ($39.75M) so it isn't imperative to get out from under a $12M annual bill for a closer.

    It will be the year Papelbon puts up, how the RS forecast his durability and the years required to retain him weighed against how ready they feel Bard is or is not, if Jenks rebounds etcetera.

    But I don't see Papelbon signing a $20M deal anymore than Craford signed a $80M deal or A-Gon signed a $100M deal. This is Papelbon's big pay day. He risked going year-to-year to get here and he should and IMO will look to maximize that pay day.

    Hard to see whether his goals and organizational goals will converge.

    Just my take 
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from ronk1. Show ronk1's posts

    Re: Bard or Papelbon

    No I don't see the RS resigning Papelbon because I don't think Theo Epstein is going to do a long term 8 figure a year deal with any closer and Papelbon has taken the risky route (year to year in arb years) to get to that long term 8 figure a year deal. And the years, not the 8 figure per year is the deal breaker for Boston.

    Katz, what makes you think that ANY team is willing to do that with any relief pitcher? Yanks? Not if Cashman is in charge. Angels? Have to pay Weaver as well. Mets? After K-rod and salary reduction of some $60 million this year highly doubtful. Phils? Maybe.
    Seems to me if the Sox wanted to they could offer Paplbon 2/$20-25 and that could be a very competitive offer. I am thinking Paplbon misread the market, and after Mo and K-rod, much like the NFL running back first round draft choice, the relief pitcher is not going to be a premium paid position, relatively speaking.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: Bard or Papelbon

    Ronk, you could be right but if recent history shows us anything, some team come to the table every year to sign guys you thought they wouldn't for a combination of dollars and years you never thought possible.

    Just this year while they are OFers, the contracts that we gave Crawford and the Nats (clearly not a usual suspect) gave Werth are unexplainable to me. But that is what the market ended up valuing both at.

    With Papelbon it won't be the $$$ because the RS are willing to pay him $12M for a single season this year, it will be the number of years versus replacement cost. In your scenario all it takes is one team to offer 3 years at $32M versus a RS of two at $24M to lose the player. Because it is only $8M if it isn't your $8M, to Paplebon it is $8M pre-tax guarenteed and that is a whole lot of legacy money properly invested. 
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from summerof67. Show summerof67's posts

    Re: Bard or Papelbon

    hey, jessey. No, on reflection, i don't think the Yanks will pursue Papelbon. Even if Mo retires, which he may, they have Soriano (who can still be very effective) to close.  Besides, Cashman has shown a tendency to be cost conscious - so that would rule out chasing Paps, I think. Maybe the Cubs and the Angels. Depends on whose contracts are expiring for which teams...
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from losmediasrojas. Show losmediasrojas's posts

    Re: Bard or Papelbon

    Maryann, Jeenie, The Nanny, and losmediasmedias.  Still can't decide between Penelope Cruz and Salma Hayek though.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Bard or Papelbon

    In Response to Re: Bard or Papelbon:
    [QUOTE]A couple of thoughts. I think 2 years for $20M for Paplebon if he has a year more like his 2008 than his 2010 is a pipe dream, it will take more years and probably more $ per year. I think the RS would be more than happy assuming Papelbon has a vintage Papelbon 2011 campaign to pay him $20m for 2 seasons. Considering they were willing to pay him $12M for a single season coming off arguably his worst season in the majors this year that is a sweetheart, club friendly deal and not likely to be near the best offer Papelbon would be tendered.  Jarret, it is pretty difficult to gauge where the market for a player might emerge. Did anyone on the planet have Jayson Werth going to the Nats for a $125M deal? The money to pay the big salary bumps that are already on the books for 2012 is going to come from some combination of veterans walking. Papelbon's advantage will be his age if he performs well in terms of being retained. Ortiz certainly would have to sign for less, as would Drew to stay. But let's not forget that the RS payroll without a single new FA addition will rise dramatically. Crawford ($5.5M), A-Gon ($15M), Pedroia ($3M), (Buchhollz $3M) and Lester ($2M). That's $28.5M. Now Drew, Ortiz, Scutaro and Cameron clear far more than that before replacement costs ($39.75M) so it isn't imperative to get out from under a $12M annual bill for a closer. It will be the year Papelbon puts up, how the RS forecast his durability and the years required to retain him weighed against how ready they feel Bard is or is not, if Jenks rebounds etcetera. But I don't see Papelbon signing a $20M deal anymore than Craford signed a $80M deal or A-Gon signed a $100M deal. This is Papelbon's big pay day. He risked going year-to-year to get here and he should and IMO will look to maximize that pay day. Hard to see whether his goals and organizational goals will converge. Just my take 
    Posted by fivekatz[/QUOTE]

    Overall good post Katz, one thing though.  Since you are using a cash basis for payroll, you also need to include the signing bonuses paid out to players this year (not just their salaries).  

    Crawford had a $6M signing bonus this year, so while his salary was $14M, for cashflow purposes he accounted for $20M in 2011.  Crawford's salary increases to $19.5M in 2012, but for cash flow purposes, his hit drops by $500K.

    AGon is in the same boat, with his $6M signing bonus to be paid this year.  He goes from cashflow figures of $12.3M in 2011 to $21M in 2012.  

    Buchholz also had a $1M signing bonus as part of his extension, so for cashflow purposes he only has a $2M raise next year.

    That drops the raises for next year that you mentioned (on a cashflow basis) from $28.5M down to $17.5M.  You left out raises for some arb eligible players (Lowrie, Salty, Bard, Aceves, Ells), so lets call it $31M in total raises on a cashflow basis as a rough estimate.

    All of this is a moot point though IMO, seeing as the Sox have operated on an AAV basis for contracts and not an annual cashflow basis in recent history.  Cashflow is certainly worth considering though.

    For AAV the big contracts coming off the books are Paps ($12M), Drew ($14M), Papi ($12.5M), Cam ($7.75M) and Scutaro ($6.25M).  These total $52.5M, so there is certainly room to re-sign Papi to a smaller deal if the FO decides to go that route, or they could bring back Paps if the price is right.  Or both.

    The Sox will likely try to get back below the luxury tax next year, which may translate to cutting $5M or so from payroll depending on what happens with baseball revenues (and thus the tax threshold).  The FO will certainly still have moeny to play with if they continue using the AAV basis.


    It's worth noting that changes to the CBA may change the way the tax is calculated and those changes could cause the Sox to alter their AAV approach (if the tax goes to a 40 man roster cashflow basis for instance.

    One other note, that I just realized that I had forgotten.  Scutaro has a $1.5M buyout if he isn't back next year, which would count against the tax.  His in-house replacement however does not have an additional charge as both Navarro and Iglesias are already on the 40-man roster and count against the cap.  I'm projecting Iglesias as his replacement, who is on a major league deal with an AAV of just over $2M against the tax ($2.0625M).


    That became a much longer post than I expected.......
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from losmediasrojas. Show losmediasrojas's posts

    Re: Bard or Papelbon

    In Response to Re: Bard or Papelbon:
    [QUOTE]Maryann, Jeenie, The Nanny, and losmediasmedias.  Still can't decide between Penelope Cruz and Salma Hayek though.
    Posted by losmediasrojas[/QUOTE]

    Oops, wrong decision thread.  I vote for Jed Lowrie first ballot Hall-of-Famer to spite Softy and shameless self-promotion of my frivolous distractions. 
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from kimsaysthis. Show kimsaysthis's posts

    Re: Bard or Papelbon

    Papelbon.  He has the added "Good For You" attitude that I think is needed in a closer -- and no fear.
     
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