Baseball Prospectus’s 2012 projections are out, and there are some interesting tidbits regarding the Red Sox:Do you agree?

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  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Re: Baseball Prospectus’s 2012 projections are out, and there are some interesting tidbits regarding the Red Sox:Do you...

    I don't think that everyone's stats will go down.  Not a single Sox batter gets 100 RBI?  I'd be shocked.

    I also do not see Bailey getting only 18 saves out of 36 chances simply because he will not get a chance to blow 18 saves.  If he is that ineffective, Melancon or Bard or some trade will get the Sox a closer who IS more effective.

    And we all better hope they are wrong about Beckett, Lester and Buchholz only having 64 starts between them.  The season will be a disaster if that comes true.
     
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus’s 2012 projections are out, and there are some interesting tidbits regarding the Red Sox:Do you...

    It would appear we finish in 4th place if all the "projection" come true.
     
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus’s 2012 projections are out, and there are some interesting tidbits regarding the Red Sox:Do you...

    Or lower.
     
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus’s 2012 projections are out, and there are some interesting tidbits regarding the Red Sox:Do you...

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    [QUOTE]I don't think that everyone's stats will go down.  Not a single Sox batter gets 100 RBI?  I'd be shocked. I also do not see Bailey getting only 18 saves out of 36 chances simply because he will not get a chance to blow 18 saves.  If he is that ineffective, Melancon or Bard or some trade will get the Sox a closer who IS more effective. And we all better hope they are wrong about Beckett, Lester and Buchholz only having 64 starts between them.  The season will be a disaster if that comes true.
    Posted by parhunter1[/QUOTE]

    The OP says 18 saves in 36 games, not chances.  

    This could imply he loses the job at some point...
     
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus’s 2012 projections are out, and there are some interesting tidbits regarding the Red Sox:Do you...

    I stand corrected. 

    It may also imply injury. 

    But, the OP also has only 6 saves for Melancon.  the Sox will need more than 24 saves in 2012, and if Bailey and Melancon can not provide them, someone else will.
     
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus’s 2012 projections are out, and there are some interesting tidbits regarding the Red Sox:Do you...

    I went last year with AGON for a 30 homer, 120 ribbie, 50 doubles type player..... I still think that is the case.
     
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus’s 2012 projections are out, and there are some interesting tidbits regarding the Red Sox:Do you...

    Where is the similar thread or post about what Baseball Prospectus projects about the Yankees in 2012. Shouldn't that be on the Realistic Yankee Thread by now? The forum is 70% Yankee fans now so why is this missing?
     
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus’s 2012 projections are out, and there are some interesting tidbits regarding the Red Sox:Do you...

    Baseball prospectus is a respected organization but it is unlikely that every player on the team tanks. I'm not worried.

    Ellsbury going from 32 dingers to 12?
    Buchholz will have  great year IMO.
    I can see some reason to be concerned in other areas but not everyone is going to tank. Bailey could get hurt etc...but overall the team will produce runs and pitch decently.

    Umps are not giving Lester a break. Maybe he should not have complained so much last year. I don't think they like him any more. His entire career is based on getting some calls, like it was with Andy Petitte. I recognize that Lester has better stuff but he still needs some calls with that breaking pitch and those cutters just off the plate. Getting those "respect" calls is the difference between being average and an all star.
     
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus’s 2012 projections are out, and there are some interesting tidbits regarding the Red Sox:Do you...

    He was in the top 10 in baseball in

    percentage of fastballs seen last year

    AGon added and Pedroia back healthy in 2011 is why "took a year off" had superficial non-career representing averages in 2011. I stated as much, early last year, yet had the resident Board idiot who bumps his own thread claiming that nothing had changed in pitch type and location for Ellsbury from previous years.
     
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus’s 2012 projections are out, and there are some interesting tidbits regarding the Red Sox:Do you...

    In Response to Baseball Prospectus’s 2012 projections are out, and there are some interesting tidbits regarding the Red Sox:Do you agree?:
    [QUOTE]From Nick Cafardo's Sunday Baseball Notes: Jacoby Ellsbury will see a decline in his power numbers. He was in the top 10 in baseball in percentage of fastballs seen last year, and will likely see more breaking balls and secondary pitches in 2012. He is projected to dip from 32 homers to 12, with his RBI total going from 105 to 71. He is also projected to have 40 steals. Carl Crawford will bounce back to hit .291, but he remains at 11 homers with only 10 more RBIs (66). He is expected to keep losing hits after his move off the turf to a natural surface. He also is projected to have 32 steals. David Ortiz will continue to produce, Prospectus says, noting that he struck out in less than 11 percent of his plate appearances last April - a month that has hurt him in the past - and increasingly is going the other way, even though his power is pull-oriented. Yet Ortiz projects to smaller numbers: 25 homers, 83 RBIs, and a .277 average. Also expected is a decrease in on-base and slugging percentage to .376/.512 after last year’s .398/.554. Jarrod Saltalamacchia is expected to get fewer plate appearances (from 386 to 292) because of Ryan Lavarnway. Salty’s average is projected to rise from .235 to .247, with his home run total reduced from 16 to 9 and 22 fewer RBIs. Dustin Pedroia is projected to have a dip in power from 21 homers to 14 and RBIs from 91 to 80, while his average will rise a few points to .315. Kevin Youkilis is expected to continue his trend of spending time out of the lineup. His projected numbers reflect that: .291, 17 homers, and 65 RBIs in 471 plate appearances. Youkilis has averaged 119 games the last three years. Josh Beckett is projected with a 12-6 record over 24 starts with a 1.25 WHIP - much higher than the terrific 1.03 he sported last season. Persistent back problems are cited. This would not be good news for the Red Sox. Andrew Bailey projects to 18 saves in 36 games. This is not what the Red Sox have in mind for their closer. The authors wonder about Bailey in the Boston pressure cooker. Jon Lester projects to a 13-6 record over 26 starts and only 166 innings. The worry is the increase in walks he showed from 3.3 per nine innings over the last three years to 4.5 over the last two months of the season. Mark Melancon draws some favorable reviews. “He was ruthless vs. righthanders while allowing a .344 [on-base percentage] to lefthanders, but his effectiveness in 2011 was closer-worthy,’’ write the authors. Melancon projects to 6 saves, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 3.69 ERA. Clay Buchholz is projected to make only 14 starts and have a 7-3 record, the authors still fearing back repercussions. Adrian Gonzalez is expected to hold steady with his production - 29 homers, 94 RBIs - but his average is expected to dip from .338 to .286. His doubles will increase because of the Wall, but not his home runs.
    Posted by 2004Idiots[/QUOTE]

    this is garbage....it's silly to even read.
     
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus’s 2012 projections are out, and there are some interesting tidbits regarding the Red Sox:Do you...

    agon 338 to 286. that is stupid they dont know what they are talking about. Can I have 5 min of my life back for reading this garbage
     
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus’s 2012 projections are out, and there are some interesting tidbits regarding the Red Sox:Do you...

    this is garbage....it's silly to even read.

    I agree, don't post your drivel to add to it.
     
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    [QUOTE]this is garbage....it's silly to even read. I agree, don't post your drivel to add to it.
    Posted by hankwilliamsjr[/QUOTE]

    and what about your drivel i see on alot of post? who do you think you are..you are not smarter than you think you are...you only try to put people down and think it's funny...if you want to act like a child so be it....
     
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus’s 2012 projections are out, and there are some interesting tidbits regarding the Red Sox:Do you...

    act like a child = "this is garbage/silly to read"

    This is a sports opinion board. Last time I checked, Nick Cafardo's opinion is as legal as yours and Obama's.
     
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus’s 2012 projections are out, and there are some interesting tidbits regarding the Red Sox:Do you...

    In Response to Re: Baseball Prospectus’s 2012 projections are out, and there are some interesting tidbits regarding the Red Sox:Do you agree?:
    [QUOTE]act like a child = "this is garbage/silly to read" This is a sports opinion board. Last time I checked, Nick Cafardo's opinion is as legal as yours and Obama's.
    Posted by hankwilliamsjr[/QUOTE]

    yeah i like nick cafardo..but he didn't write that...he just put that in his article..those are baseball prospectus projections...
     
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus’s 2012 projections are out, and there are some interesting tidbits regarding the Red Sox:Do you...

         Cafardo is better to be an undertaker than a baseball writer.some of his assessments are absolutely outrageous and sperlatively uninformed.It is amazing that he apparently feels he has the ability to predict injuries and their severity yet never recognizes that many who played hurt last season(e.g.-Pedroia,Crawford,Youk,etc.)and are now healthy and could well actually perform at significantly higher levels.None of this even mentions that he belioeves he knows how pitchers will attack certain players without a clue about the starting line-ups from game to game and in right field they have two players,one of whom hits lefties very well and another who hits righties very well and will almost certainly provide greater offense at that position.Behind the plate he has salty playing a lot fewer games because of the presence of Lavarnway and there are stronger indications that the Sox want to have Lavarnway catch every day in AAA to improve his defense or be moved to a different position which would never have Salty sitting because of him.He surely doesn't think Stoppach is gng to learn to hit his age,or maybe he does.His final absurd claim that he can foresee how players like Bailey will respond to the pressures of playing in Boston as opposed to Oakland.The whole thing is a preposterous guess.
     
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus’s 2012 projections are out, and there are some interesting tidbits regarding the Red Sox:Do you...

    He was in the top 10 in baseball in percentage of fastballs seen last year AGon added and Pedroia back healthy in 2011 is why "took a year off" had superficial non-career representing averages in 2011. I stated as much, early last year, yet had the resident Board idiot who bumps his own thread claiming that nothing had changed in pitch type and location for Ellsbury from previous years.
    Posted by hankwilliamsjr[/QUOTE]

    How to lie with stats!  If this top 10 stat is true, which I would question, isn't it more relevant to state what percentage of FB he faced in previous seasons?  I also wonder how acurate the numbers are in general.

    Fangraphs  FB%   Ells      Pedroia      AGon
    2009                      67.5       65.5         62.4
    2010                      63.3       61.5         62.8
    2011                      61.7       61.0         58.7

    Ellsbury and Pedroia faced LESS FB last year according to Fangraphs!!!


     
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus’s 2012 projections are out, and there are some interesting tidbits regarding the Red Sox:Do you...

    In Response to Re: Baseball Prospectus’s 2012 projections are out, and there are some interesting tidbits regarding the Red Sox:Do you agree?:
    [QUOTE]     Cafardo is better to be an undertaker than a baseball writer.some of his assessments are absolutely outrageous and sperlatively uninformed.It is amazing that he apparently feels he has the ability to predict injuries and their severity yet never recognizes that many who played hurt last season(e.g.-Pedroia,Crawford,Youk,etc.)and are now healthy and could well actually perform at significantly higher levels.None of this even mentions that he belioeves he knows how pitchers will attack certain players without a clue about the starting line-ups from game to game and in right field they have two players,one of whom hits lefties very well and another who hits righties very well and will almost certainly provide greater offense at that position.Behind the plate he has salty playing a lot fewer games because of the presence of Lavarnway and there are stronger indications that the Sox want to have Lavarnway catch every day in AAA to improve his defense or be moved to a different position which would never have Salty sitting because of him.He surely doesn't think Stoppach is gng to learn to hit his age,or maybe he does.His final absurd claim that he can foresee how players like Bailey will respond to the pressures of playing in Boston as opposed to Oakland.The whole thing is a preposterous guess.
    Posted by kebbe[/QUOTE]

    The irony here is that your ripping Cafardo for being uninformed, yet you're the one who appears uninformed even after reading it..

    Cafardo didn't make those predictions. He was simply passing on information from Baseball Prospectus because he thought fans might be interested -- interested, not in agreement.

    There's nothing wroing with that. I wouldn't have sought out Baseball Prospectus, so yeah, I found it interesting, although I thought it was a lot of B.S. Chances are, Cafardo probably thinks most of the predictions that Baseball Prospectus made was B.S.
     
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus’s 2012 projections are out, and there are some interesting tidbits regarding the Red Sox:Do you...

    So who is closing games because the Red Sox will have more than the 24 saves projected between Bailey and Melancon? 

    If the Red Sox only get 14 starts out of Clay, and a combined 50 out of Lester and Beckett, it will be a very difficult year.
     
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus’s 2012 projections are out, and there are some interesting tidbits regarding the Red Sox:Do you...

    In Response to Re: Baseball Prospectus’s 2012 projections are out, and there are some interesting tidbits regarding the Red Sox:Do you agree?:
    [QUOTE]Where is the similar thread or post about what Baseball Prospectus projects about the Yankees in 2012. Shouldn't that be on the Realistic Yankee Thread by now? The forum is 70% Yankee fans now so why is this missing?
    Posted by lowelll[/QUOTE]

    Tried, but I think you need to subscribe to it and I am not - so why don't you do it!
     
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus’s 2012 projections are out, and there are some interesting tidbits regarding the Red Sox:Do you...

    In Response to Baseball Prospectus’s 2012 projections are out, and there are some interesting tidbits regarding the Red Sox:Do you agree?:
    [QUOTE]From Nick Cafardo's Sunday Baseball Notes: Jacoby Ellsbury will see a decline in his power numbers. He was in the top 10 in baseball in percentage of fastballs seen last year, and will likely see more breaking balls and secondary pitches in 2012. He is projected to dip from 32 homers to 12, with his RBI total going from 105 to 71. He is also projected to have 40 steals. Carl Crawford will bounce back to hit .291, but he remains at 11 homers with only 10 more RBIs (66). He is expected to keep losing hits after his move off the turf to a natural surface. He also is projected to have 32 steals. David Ortiz will continue to produce, Prospectus says, noting that he struck out in less than 11 percent of his plate appearances last April - a month that has hurt him in the past - and increasingly is going the other way, even though his power is pull-oriented. Yet Ortiz projects to smaller numbers: 25 homers, 83 RBIs, and a .277 average. Also expected is a decrease in on-base and slugging percentage to .376/.512 after last year’s .398/.554. Jarrod Saltalamacchia is expected to get fewer plate appearances (from 386 to 292) because of Ryan Lavarnway. Salty’s average is projected to rise from .235 to .247, with his home run total reduced from 16 to 9 and 22 fewer RBIs. Dustin Pedroia is projected to have a dip in power from 21 homers to 14 and RBIs from 91 to 80, while his average will rise a few points to .315. Kevin Youkilis is expected to continue his trend of spending time out of the lineup. His projected numbers reflect that: .291, 17 homers, and 65 RBIs in 471 plate appearances. Youkilis has averaged 119 games the last three years. Josh Beckett is projected with a 12-6 record over 24 starts with a 1.25 WHIP - much higher than the terrific 1.03 he sported last season. Persistent back problems are cited. This would not be good news for the Red Sox. Andrew Bailey projects to 18 saves in 36 games. This is not what the Red Sox have in mind for their closer. The authors wonder about Bailey in the Boston pressure cooker. Jon Lester projects to a 13-6 record over 26 starts and only 166 innings. The worry is the increase in walks he showed from 3.3 per nine innings over the last three years to 4.5 over the last two months of the season. Mark Melancon draws some favorable reviews. “He was ruthless vs. righthanders while allowing a .344 [on-base percentage] to lefthanders, but his effectiveness in 2011 was closer-worthy,’’ write the authors. Melancon projects to 6 saves, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 3.69 ERA. Clay Buchholz is projected to make only 14 starts and have a 7-3 record, the authors still fearing back repercussions. Adrian Gonzalez is expected to hold steady with his production - 29 homers, 94 RBIs - but his average is expected to dip from .338 to .286. His doubles will increase because of the Wall, but not his home runs.
    Posted by 2004Idiots[/QUOTE]

    I don't agree with any of these predictions and feel everyone could have better stats.
     
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus’s 2012 projections are out, and there are some interesting tidbits regarding the Red Sox:Do you...

    Great look up Tom! Isn't it crazy how people manipulate data to make a point. Relatively insignificant data to make a point. The entire analysis seemed to be flawed to me.

    And I wonder why anyone would want to throw Ellsbury fastballs. Maybe to try to keep him off base?

    If I were a pitcher I would have been throwing him fastballs prior to 2011 also. The fear at that time was to keep that guy off base! It seems clear that he will get even fewer going forward but it's not like that percentage is going to drop much more compared to 2011.
     
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus’s 2012 projections are out, and there are some interesting tidbits regarding the Red Sox:Do you...

    In Response to Re: Baseball Prospectus’s 2012 projections are out, and there are some interesting tidbits regarding the Red Sox:Do you agree?:
    [QUOTE]Where is the similar thread or post about what Baseball Prospectus projects about the Yankees in 2012. Shouldn't that be on the Realistic Yankee Thread by now? The forum is 70% Yankee fans now so why is this missing?
    Posted by lowelll[/QUOTE]


    Why don't you go find the most successful Yankee forum and I will join with you, and we can attack/make fun of Yankee posters.
     

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