Batting Order vs. LHP

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxnsl. Show maxnsl's posts

    Re: Batting Order vs. LHP

    all the posters are passionate and well informed but im still glad Bobby V will be deciding the lineup over any of the posters
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Batting Order vs. LHP

    I agree with the notion that we as a fanbase shouldn't solely judge CC on what we saw last year.  

    Yes, and that's why last spring, I was saying the same thing I am saying now. I think CC will revert to his career norm or his recent few year's numbers, and he's still not good enough to be above 6th vs RHPs and 9th vs LHPs, unless Iggy is the SS.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Batting Order vs. LHP

    The other point is if Aviles starts at SS vs LHP, and Ross starts in RF, who do you bat for Crawford?  Are we any better off with Darnell McDonald in the lineup, given the speed and defense differential?  Say what you want about Crawford defensively - McDonald is far worse.

    In LF, DMac actually has not looked that bad as a left fielder. Last year CC looked awful in LF, but who knows if that will continue. I seriously do not think DMac's fielding is so much worse than CC's that it doesn't make up for a .100 to .150 better OPS he has over CC vs LHPs.

    I'd go with DMac in LF vs half or most LHPs, but it is a close call, and perhaps CC's speed on the bases tilts the balance. I'm fine with CC batting 9th instead of riding the bench. I just said a case could be made for him to be on the bench, and yet, there are people here talking about promoting CC to 5th and demoting someone else, who would have to be Youk or Papi. 


     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Batting Order vs. LHP

    Most people were saying play Sweeney, even against LHP.  We could try Punto at SS, Aviles in the outfield.

    I haven't heard one poster say we should play Sweeney vs LHPs, let alone "most people".

    Our worst against LHPs is not CC, it's Sweeney followed by Punto and Salty.

    Ross might be our best hitting OF'er vs LHPs, so he and Jacoby should play vs all LHPs, unless Ells is resting. The 3rd OF by offense only (depending on which pitcher is pitching) should be in this order:
    1) DMac
    2) Aviles (if not needed at SS)
    3) Crawford
    4) Sweeney
    (Even Lavarnway may be a better choice in LF vs LHPs than CC.)
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Batting Order vs. LHP

    In Response to Re: Batting Order vs. LHP:
    [QUOTE]I am still trying to get my head around that $ dictates where guys play.  Do Managers have paycheck stubs in front of them when the fill out the line up cards? And Ortiz will get plenty of time off during the NL Away games......Fielder plays every day, why can't Adrian?
    Posted by andrewmitch[/QUOTE]

    The money doesn't dictate where he plays, but how he played prior to the contract does dictate the money.

    The chances that the Sox show more patience with Crawford than you have are somewhere between 99% and 101%.   They are going to forget about last year and give him a whole new fresh start.  The chances of him being buried in the 9-hole or written off are non-existant anf we both know that.  And if we both don't, you will learn it soon enough.

    And while it is unlikely Crawford returns to the .305 / 356 / .495 hitter with 19HRs and 90RBI he was in 2010, it is also equally unlikely he is as bad as 2011 unless there is an injury involved.  So if Crawford does bounce back, try not to take it too hard.  I'm sure there will be other slumps for you to complain about endlessly...
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Batting Order vs. LHP

    He batted 7th or 8th in over half his PAs last year. He mostly batted 6th, where he probably will again this year. The issue is vs LHPs. I think Bobby V will not bench him except for normal or slightly higher than normal times, but will time it to coincide with tough lefties for CC. The games he starts vs LHPs, I think Bobby V will bat him 7th or 8th, and if everyone is healthy, it should be 8th or 9th. (9th by the numbers)

    I can't see a sub 700 guy batting in front of Ross (.900+). Aviles, I can see (although I wouldn't). Schoppach, hmmm... I guess so (but I wouldn't), but not all 3. Tops is the 7th slot vs LHPs in my book.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Batting Order vs. LHP

    CC's Career ON BASE AVG vs Lefties is a mere .308

    SLG % @ a pitiful .375

    The more you look at Crawford the more reckless the signing looks.  Theo may be responsible for the single worst signing in the history of sport.  We shall find out.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Batting Order vs. LHP

    He was asking about the beginning of the season based on not having CC.  

    I know, and my point was that I haven't heard anyone arguing strongly for Sweeney to play vs LHPs over Ross or DMac.

    I see you would go with DMac.  

    It's a no brainer: if is CC injured, DMac plays LF & Ross Rf vs LHPs.

    Secondly, stats schmats.

    Stats are not everything and have their flaws, but the do represent what happens in the games. A 230 point advantage is OPS is not "schmats"; it's eeghats!

    I would never play DMac.  So I factored that into my decision.  

    I figured there must be some reason for ignoring the obvious.

    If CC is playing, obviously I understand the platoon situation with Ross and Sweeney.  If CC is still injured, I go with Sweeney 100% of the time.

    Is it beccause you think he will not continue with an under 600 OPS or because you think Ross' defense in LF over DMac's and Sweeney's defense in RF over Ross' more than makes up for a 230 OPS differential? Or, do you think DMac, who has been a pretty consistent 800+ OPS guy vs LHPs, will decline sharply this year?
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Batting Order vs. LHP

    In Response to Re: Batting Order vs. LHP:
    [QUOTE]CC's Career ON BASE AVG vs Lefties is a mere .308 SLG % @ a pitiful .375 The more you look at Crawford the more reckless the signing looks.  Theo may be responsible for the single worst signing in the history of sport.  We shall find out.
    Posted by andrewmitch[/QUOTE]

    The warning signs were there long before the signing. His 2010 OPS vs LHPs was actually below his career numbers. I called him a "glorified platoon player" then, and nothing has changed since. Nothing is likely to change on that fron this year either.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliamsjr. Show hankwilliamsjr's posts

    Re: Batting Order vs. LHP

    As Moonslump predicted, Ortiz needed to sit v. most LP in 2011. Ortiz was terrible v. LP in 2011 zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Batting Order vs. LHP

    In Response to Re: Batting Order vs. LHP:
    [QUOTE]He batted 7th or 8th in over half his PAs last year. He mostly batted 6th, where he probably will again this year. The issue is vs LHPs. I think Bobby V will not bench him except for normal or slightly higher than normal times, but will time it to coincide with tough lefties for CC. The games he starts vs LHPs, I think Bobby V will bat him 7th or 8th, and if everyone is healthy, it should be 8th or 9th. (9th by the numbers) I can't see a sub 700 guy batting in front of Ross (.900+). Aviles, I can see (although I wouldn't). Schoppach, hmmm... I guess so (but I wouldn't), but not all 3. Tops is the 7th slot vs LHPs in my book.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    The issue with last year’s batting order is there is a new sheriff in town, and he is probably going to do things differently.  For all we know, Valentine might see Crawford as the #2 hitter as often as possible.

    I do doubt he buries him in the #9 slot vs. LHP, especially if Jose Iglesias is on the team.  I think it is very possible our starting shortstop is Iglesias right out of the gate.  Bobby Valentine was the manager for the 1996 Mets at the end of the season when Rey Ordonez was a rookie shortstop, and he kept Ordonez on the team as the starting shortstop for 1997 while the team improved around him, despite Ordonez’ offensive shortcomings.

    Ordonez won the starting job for the Mets in 1996 after posting a .554 OPS in the International League the previous season.  Jose Iglesias OPS in the IL last year - .554.  I would not be surprised at all if Valentine sees similarities and keeps Iglesias around at shortstop, but I would be surprised if Iglesias hit anywhere except ninth, regardless of pitching match ups.

    Early in the season, I think the batting order will be roughly the same vs. everyone – Ellsbury / Pedroia / Gonzalez / Youkilis / Ortiz / Ross / Saltalamacchia / Sweeney / Iglesias.  The only real question might be who hits seventh or eighth.  The L-R-L-R flipping in that order is more of a coincidence. 

    When Crawford returns, he might simply slide in Ross’ position, but Valentine might try him between Ellsbury and Pedroia, figuring that hitting there will give him his best chance to succeed and best utilize his offensive game, but that assumes he comes back at full strength.  The only other option that might happen is simply substituting him for Ross in the above lineup.   I doubt he hits as low as eighth if he is healthy.  Crawford has hit LHP better in the past that he did last year, and his wide open stance makes him less susceptible to inside pitches from LHP.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Batting Order vs. LHP

    The issue with last year’s batting order is there is a new sheriff in town, and he is probably going to do things differently.  For all we know, Valentine might see Crawford as the #2 hitter as often as possible.

    Vs RHPs, I don't see a problem with CC 2nd, AGon 3rd, and Papi & Pedey up 4th and 5th. I sincerely hope he doesn't bat 2nd vs most LHPs, but stranger things have happened. I doubt CC bats 8th or 9th vs LHPs, but it is where he belongs, and maybe Bobby V will figure that out.

    I do doubt he buries him in the #9 slot vs. LHP, especially if Jose Iglesias is on the team.  I think it is very possible our starting shortstop is Iglesias right out of the gate.  Bobby Valentine was the manager for the 1996 Mets at the end of the season when Rey Ordonez was a rookie shortstop, and he kept Ordonez on the team as the starting shortstop for 1997 while the team improved around him, despite Ordonez’ offensive shortcomings.

    I'm hoping you are right, and we see Iggy at SS day 1 to day 162.

    Ordonez won the starting job for the Mets in 1996 after posting a .554 OPS in the International League the previous season.  Jose Iglesias OPS in the IL last year - .554.  I would not be surprised at all if Valentine sees similarities and keeps Iglesias around at shortstop, but I would be surprised if Iglesias hit anywhere except ninth, regardless of pitching match ups.

    Well, if Iggy does better vs LHPs than CC, which he may not, it makes sense to me to line up the speedsters 9th and 1st

    Early in the season, I think the batting order will be roughly the same vs. everyone – Ellsbury / Pedroia / Gonzalez / Youkilis / Ortiz / Ross / Saltalamacchia / Sweeney / Iglesias.  The only real question might be who hits seventh or eighth.  The L-R-L-R flipping in that order is more of a coincidence. 

    Salty is horrible vs LHPs. I think we will see Shoppach vs most LHPs.

    I also think if DMac is on the team, he bats vs LHPs over Sweeney. 

    Ross may be dropped downs vs RHPs a little bit.

    When Crawford returns, he might simply slide in Ross’ position, but Valentine might try him between Ellsbury and Pedroia, figuring that hitting there will give him his best chance to succeed and best utilize his offensive game, but that assumes he comes back at full strength.  The only other option that might happen is simply substituting him for Ross in the above lineup.   I doubt he hits as low as eighth if he is healthy.  Crawford has hit LHP better in the past that he did last year, and his wide open stance makes him less susceptible to inside pitches from LHP.

    Crawford has had a couple decent seasons and one good one vs LHPs, but the vast majority have been horrible. I also do not see anything that hints at a trend upwards. He's been bad for 4 straight seasons. I'm not saying he can't have a good year in 2012 vs LHPs. I was wrong on Papi, but the odds are strongly against him outhitting several other players who have solid histories vs LHPs over recent years.

    Crwaford vs LHPs:

    2003: .584

    2004: .764

    2005: .620

    2006: .776

    2007: .837

    2008: .641

    2009: .704

    2010: .696

    2011: .566

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliamsjr. Show hankwilliamsjr's posts

    Re: Batting Order vs. LHP

    Red Sox have what it takes on offense, two middle of the lineup hitters that strike fear in the best pitchers......................of course, that was a joke!
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Batting Order vs. LHP

    What is even more concerning is that Crawful's OBP vs Lefties last year was less than 25% - that's an even 2 - 4 - 9 'er........We aren't talking Batting Average here.  Again, OBP.......He makes outs MORE THAN 75% of the time vs Lefties.  Unless he is Ozzie Smith at SS he has absolutely no business in a major league line up vs lefties.  Conclusion:  Moon is right.  Crawford is a glorified - GLORIFIED $$$$$$ - platoon player.  Theo really messed up on this one; and that's an understatement.  Crawful makes JD Drew tolerable and that's saying something as you all know.

    Apologies of course to the Wizard who never ever had an OBP of anything close to sub-250.......
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Batting Order vs. LHP

    What is even more concerning is that Crawful's OBP vs Lefties last year was less than 25% - that's an even 2 - 4 - 9 'er........We aren't talking Batting Average here.  Again, OBP.......He makes outs MORE THAN 75% of the time vs Lefties.  Unless he is Ozzie Smith at SS he has absolutely no business in a major league line up vs lefties.  Conclusion:  Moon is right.  Crawford is a glorified - GLORIFIED $$$$$$ - platoon player.  

    The point I also made about him being a "gloritfied platoon player" was that he really only brought us value in about 60-65% of the games, and by paying him $21M for basically only 2/3's of a season of worth, we in effect are paying him about $30M pro-rated to a full season against RHPs only. 

    Yuck!


     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from law2009a. Show law2009a's posts

    Re: Batting Order vs. LHP

    n
     
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    m
     
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