Re: Batting Order
posted at 5/5/2013 12:38 PM EDT
1) It's a widely believed myth that Pedey thrives best in the 2 slot.
2 slot: .374/.463/.837 (2678 PAs)
3 slot: .366/.447/.814 (489 PAs)
4 slot: .442/.675/1.117 (139 PAs)
One could better argue batting Papi 3rd and Pedey 4th.
2) Victorino should bat 2nd, but only vs LHPs. His splits are not favorable vs righties (.330 career OBP vs .372 vs LHP). He should not have batted 2nd last night.
3) Nava should bat 2nd vs RHPs not Victorino. (I'd even bat Gomes 2nd vs Shane vs lefties, and if Nava cools down, I'd put Gomes up 2nd until things change.) Nava has a fantastic career OBP vs RHPs: .376. He should stay up 2nd unless he seriously cools down.
4) Papi up 3rd makes a lot of sense, especially vs RHPs.
5) If Shane/Gomes vs LHPs and Nava vs RHPs start to fade, then of course a Pedey-Papi-Naps 2-3-4 line-up can be utilized, but with Gomes and Nava getting on base so well, so far, I don't see the need to make a knee-jerk switch.
6) Having Napoli up 5th lengthens the line-up considerably, and many baseball pundits stress the importance of the #5 hitter in a line-up. Who bats 5th if we go with Pedey, Papi, Naps 2, 3 & 4? Middlebrooks? (Laughable right now) Nava/Victorino-Gomes? (Weak in power) Salty? Drew? I think not.
We should go with this for a while longer:
vs RHPs vs LHPs
2) Nava Victorino/Gomes
3) Papi Pedey
4) Pedey Papi
6) Drew Gomes/Victorino
7) Middlebrooks (Ciriaco?)
8) Salty Drew
9) Victorino Ross
I'm OK with keeping Papi and Pedey set at 3 & 4 vs all pitchers.
Pedey .386/.330/.716 (Poor slg% dragging him down)
Gomes .344/.259/.603 (Shoul seriously avoid ever facing RHPs)
Midds .205/.386/.590 (No better options.)
Nava .364/.579/.943 (Not likely to continue vs LHPs)
Ross .261/.619/.880 (Poor OBP)
Gomes .438/.435/.872 (That OBP needs to bat 2nd vs lefties)
Carp .500/.333/.833 (just 4 PAs)
Pedey .412/.393/.805 (Again, the low slg% dragging down the OPS)
Papi .316/.412/.728 (This should turn around.)
Vict .310/.269/.580 (Freakishly against his career norm)
Ells .255/.245/.500 (Needs monitoring)
Salty .250/.154/.404 (Ross should start vs all LHPs as I suggested in March.)