Batting Order

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from splendidsplinterteddyballgame. Show splendidsplinterteddyballgame's posts

    Batting Order

    Now that the order is being exposed, it's time to put Pedroia second and Ortiz third.  You need your third hitter to be a power hitter.  Normally it is your best hitter.  Ortiz is the Sox best hitter.  He needs to be third.  Move Victorino down.  

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Batting Order

    The Sox 1-2-3 have been getting on base at a good clip so papi and Naps can drive them in with a combined 46RBI between the 2.

    I agree that #3 usually has more power, but Pedey has an OBP around .400 and is capable of a lot of 2b and 10-15HR. Vic has a high OBP as well. Actually, Ellsbury isnt getting on Base like a lead off hitter should be. 330 OBP isnt what a #1 hitter should have.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from splendidsplinterteddyballgame. Show splendidsplinterteddyballgame's posts

    Re: Batting Order

    Sox are only team in MLB without a homer from number 3 spot.  Last night for instance, two on two out, down 3-1.  Who do we want up, Pedroria or Ortiz?  It just makes more sense to have Ortiz hitting third.  I think Pedroria is putting too much pressure on himself hitting third right now.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Batting Order

    In response to splendidsplinterteddyballgame's comment:

    Sox are only team in MLB without a homer from number 3 spot.  Last night for instance, two on two out, down 3-1.  Who do we want up, Pedroria or Ortiz?  It just makes more sense to have Ortiz hitting third.  I think Pedroria is putting too much pressure on himself hitting third right now.




    Im not disagreeing with you at all. If Middy can make the adjustments, he can also slip into that 5 hole where naps is now and move them up a slot. who would you drop in the order in order to do this? Ells, Pedey, Vic?

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Batting Order

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to splendidsplinterteddyballgame's comment:

     

    Sox are only team in MLB without a homer from number 3 spot.  Last night for instance, two on two out, down 3-1.  Who do we want up, Pedroria or Ortiz?  It just makes more sense to have Ortiz hitting third.  I think Pedroria is putting too much pressure on himself hitting third right now.

     




    Im not disagreeing with you at all. If Middy can make the adjustments, he can also slip into that 5 hole where naps is now and move them up a slot. who would you drop in the order in order to do this? Ells, Pedey, Vic?

     

     




    Pedroia batting third is not working. He has hit third for 30 games and has only 12 RBIs. He has stranded many baserunners. His OBP is better suited to number two in the order. Ellsbury and Pedroia should be the table setters for Ortiz and Napoli. The problem is , with Middlebrooks and Salty both struggling , we don't have a good option to hit fifth. Nava might be the best choice at present. It is important to score from the top part of the order , because we are not getting much from the bottom. 

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Batting Order

    I've said it before and I'll say it again, batting order just doesn't make that much of a difference.  Most of the things posted about batting order are conventional wisdom, but are inaccurate.  Out of the top 4 spots, the #3 hole is actually the least important.

    Probably the single biggest factor in optimizing a line up is OBP.  That would have Ortiz hitting lead off, and no manager is going to do that.

     

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Batting Order

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to splendidsplinterteddyballgame's comment:

     

    Sox are only team in MLB without a homer from number 3 spot.  Last night for instance, two on two out, down 3-1.  Who do we want up, Pedroria or Ortiz?  It just makes more sense to have Ortiz hitting third.  I think Pedroria is putting too much pressure on himself hitting third right now.

     




    Im not disagreeing with you at all. If Middy can make the adjustments, he can also slip into that 5 hole where naps is now and move them up a slot. who would you drop in the order in order to do this? Ells, Pedey, Vic?

     

     




    Pedroia batting third is not working. He has hit third for 30 games and has only 12 RBIs. He has stranded many baserunners. His OBP is better suited to number two in the order. Ellsbury and Pedroia should be the table setters for Ortiz and Napoli. The problem is , with Middlebrooks and Salty both struggling , we don't have a good option to hit fifth. Nava might be the best choice at present. It is important to score from the top part of the order , because we are not getting much from the bottom. 

     




    The more i think about it, the more I agree with you.

    Ells .330 OBP isnt going to cut it in the leadoff spot. If he continues, you have to think about Vic leading off. But then again .348 isnt a lot better. Maybe Pedey should lead off. hes got the highest OBP.

    Either way, there needs to be some tweaking.

     
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  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hetchinspete. Show Hetchinspete's posts

    Re: Batting Order

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

    I've said it before and I'll say it again, batting order just doesn't make that much of a difference.  Most of the things posted about batting order are conventional wisdom, but are inaccurate.  Out of the top 4 spots, the #3 hole is actually the least important.

    WHAT !! You can't be serious. Kimmi if you are your contradicting every manager in MLB. I believe that's why the manager makes up his line-up card every game. I'm not the best strategist but sorry I couldn't disagree more. 

    Hetch

     
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  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Batting Order

    1) It's a widely believed myth that Pedey thrives best in the 2 slot.

          2 slot: .374/.463/.837  (2678 PAs)

          3 slot: .366/.447/.814  (489 PAs)

          4 slot: .442/.675/1.117 (139 PAs)

        One could better argue batting Papi 3rd and Pedey 4th.

    2) Victorino should bat 2nd, but only vs LHPs. His splits are not favorable vs righties (.330 career OBP vs .372 vs LHP). He should not have batted 2nd last night. 

    3) Nava should bat 2nd vs RHPs not Victorino. (I'd even bat Gomes 2nd vs Shane vs lefties, and if Nava cools down, I'd put Gomes up 2nd until things change.)  Nava has a fantastic career OBP vs RHPs: .376. He should stay up 2nd unless he seriously cools down.

    4) Papi up 3rd makes a lot of sense, especially vs RHPs.

    5) If Shane/Gomes vs LHPs and Nava vs RHPs start to fade, then of course a Pedey-Papi-Naps 2-3-4 line-up can be utilized, but with Gomes and Nava getting on base so well, so far, I don't see the need to make a knee-jerk switch. 

    6) Having Napoli up 5th lengthens the line-up considerably, and many baseball pundits stress the importance of the #5 hitter in a line-up. Who bats 5th if we go with Pedey, Papi, Naps 2, 3 & 4? Middlebrooks? (Laughable right now) Nava/Victorino-Gomes? (Weak in power)  Salty? Drew? I think not.

     

    We should go with this for a while longer:

         vs RHPs    vs LHPs

    1)          Ellsbury

    2) Nava        Victorino/Gomes

    3) Papi          Pedey

    4) Pedey       Papi

    5)         Napoli

    6)  Drew       Gomes/Victorino

    7)       Middlebrooks (Ciriaco?)

    8) Salty         Drew

    9) Victorino   Ross    

     

    I'm OK with keeping Papi and Pedey set at 3 & 4 vs all pitchers.

    2013 splits:

    vs RHPs

    Carp  .519/1.080/1.599

    Papi  .563/1.033/1.596

    Nava .410/.515/.924

    Naps  .327/.567/.893

    Ells    .389/.500/.889

    Salty .319/.476/.795

    Ross  .375/.357/.732

    Pedey .386/.330/.716 (Poor slg% dragging him down)

    Ciriaco .333/.333/.666

    Vict   .351/.314/.665

    Drew .333/.279/.612

    Gomes .344/.259/.603 (Shoul seriously avoid ever facing RHPs)

    Midds  .205/.386/.590  (No better options.)

     

    vs LHPs

    Nava  .364/.579/.943 (Not likely to continue vs LHPs)

    Naps  .344/.567/.910

    Ross   .261/.619/.880 (Poor OBP)

    Gomes .438/.435/.872 (That OBP needs to bat 2nd vs lefties)

    Carp     .500/.333/.833 (just 4 PAs)

    Ciriaco .364/.444/.808 

    Pedey  .412/.393/.805 (Again, the low slg% dragging down the OPS)

    Papi     .316/.412/.728 (This should turn around.)

    Midds  .313/.400/.713

    Vict     .310/.269/.580 (Freakishly against his career norm)

    Drew  .182/.368/.550

    Ells     .255/.245/.500 (Needs monitoring)

    Salty  .250/.154/.404 (Ross should start vs all LHPs as I suggested in March.)

     

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Batting Order

    In response to mryazz's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    The Sox 1-2-3 have been getting on base at a good clip so papi and Naps can drive them in with a combined 46RBI between the 2.

    I agree that #3 usually has more power, but Pedey has an OBP around .400 and is capable of a lot of 2b and 10-15HR. Vic has a high OBP as well. Actually, Ellsbury isnt getting on Base like a lead off hitter should be. 330 OBP isnt what a #1 hitter should have.

     

     



    with all these problems the SOX are 20-10. imagine, if you will, that ELLS and PEDEY improve. will the SOX, as a team, play worse?  imagine if douby gets replaced by webster. will that make the SOX worse? also, imagine if middlebrooks starts to be middlebrooks; does that hurt the team?

    i hate to be a DEBBIE DOWNER, but i believe the SOX will make the playoffs. 

     

     




    I agree that they will make the playoffs too...

    I think that your #3 is typically more of a power bat. Pedey has a solid OBP around .400 which is good to set up the big bats of papi and Naps, which is why I havent said much about it. I do think that eventually it will end up with papi batting third. Id rather papi's bat is guarenteed in the 1st inning. I think thats a valid reason to have papi batting #3.

     

     
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  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: Batting Order

    I think:

    ShaVic, Pedroia, Ortiz, Nap, Nava, WMB, Ells, Salty, Drew.

    Shake it up baby.

    Give WMB a mental health day off today--he's struggling--insert Ciriaco/ Carp @ 1 B, give Nap a day off.

    Put Bailey on the DL, if he can't pitch, and bring up RDLR for a few days, have a full complement of relievers.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Batting Order

    In response to Hetchinspete's comment:

    WHAT !! You can't be serious. Kimmi if you are your contradicting every manager in MLB. I believe that's why the manager makes up his line-up card every game. I'm not the best strategist but sorry I couldn't disagree more. 

    Hetch




    I have no problem with you disagreeing with me Hetch.  As far as I know, I am alone on this forum in my crusade to quell the myths of the importance of batting order.  ;-)

    I am dead serious though.  It's  not me that's contradicting every manager in MLB, it's study after study on batting orders that are disagreeing with every manager in MLB.

    A lineup error as blatant as putting a pitcher in the #4 hole all year will make a difference of about 15 runs all year.  The difference between a team's optimal line up (which no manager ever uses because no manager is going to bat Papi first) and a traditional line up may be 1 or 2 games a year.

    A single move such as switching Papi from #4 to #3 will have virtually no effect whatsoever over the course of a season.  Every move that seemingly improves a line up in one aspect has a countereffect that weakens it in another way.

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Batting Order

    In response to mryazz's comment:

    right, so the team's best hitter should bat 9th. that way he comes to the plate maybe 3 times instead of 4. 

    please send more informative posts like that one. i like to learn something new everyday.




    For your perusal:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/are-league-wide-batting-orders-more-optimized/

    http://www.fangraphs.com/community/a-case-study-in-lineup-construction/

    There are plenty more where those came from, if you're interested.

     

     
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  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Batting Order

    How many times do teams miss the playoffs by 1-3 games?

    Even if that is all a line-up matters, it is still important to do the best you can.

    Just batting 3rd instead of 4th gives a batter 15-20 more PAs in a season. That alone can be the difference maker in a game or two. OBP up first, speed in front of slow, power behind OBP, etc... It all adds up.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bill-806. Show Bill-806's posts

    Re: Batting Order

    In response to splendidsplinterteddyballgame's comment:

    Now that the order is being exposed, it's time to put Pedroia second and Ortiz third.  You need your third hitter to be a power hitter.  Normally it is your best hitter.  Ortiz is the Sox best hitter.  He needs to be third.  Move Victorino down.  

       B I N G O  !!!


     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Batting Order

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    How many times do teams miss the playoffs by 1-3 games?

    Even if that is all a line-up matters, it is still important to do the best you can.

    Just batting 3rd instead of 4th gives a batter 15-20 more PAs in a season. That alone can be the difference maker in a game or two. OBP up first, speed in front of slow, power behind OBP, etc... It all adds up.

     



    Exactly, Common Sense.

    Even in a Single Game it cam make the difference. You want as many at bats from the Top of your Order.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Batting Order

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

    In response to Hetchinspete's comment:

     

    WHAT !! You can't be serious. Kimmi if you are your contradicting every manager in MLB. I believe that's why the manager makes up his line-up card every game. I'm not the best strategist but sorry I couldn't disagree more. 

    Hetch

     




    I have no problem with you disagreeing with me Hetch.  As far as I know, I am alone on this forum in my crusade to quell the myths of the importance of batting order.  ;-)

     

    I am dead serious though.  It's  not me that's contradicting every manager in MLB, it's study after study on batting orders that are disagreeing with every manager in MLB.

    A lineup error as blatant as putting a pitcher in the #4 hole all year will make a difference of about 15 runs all year.  The difference between a team's optimal line up (which no manager ever uses because no manager is going to bat Papi first) and a traditional line up may be 1 or 2 games a year.

    A single move such as switching Papi from #4 to #3 will have virtually no effect whatsoever over the course of a season.  Every move that seemingly improves a line up in one aspect has a countereffect that weakens it in another way.

     




    Actually, by putting papi #3, hes guarenteed to bat in the 1st inning, which i think is important. Vic can then be moved down to help our weak 7-9 and balance things out better. So actually, the counter move would help us in this situation.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Batting Order

    Actually, by putting papi #3, hes guarenteed to bat in the 1st inning, which i think is important. Vic can then be moved down to help our weak 7-9 and balance things out better. So actually, the counter move would help us in this situation.

    I love Papi batting 3rd, and I even wanted him there during the Manny era, but if it means putting Napoli 4th (and Pedey 2nd), we've shortened our line-up considerably.

    To me, Napoli is the perfect 5 slot hitter on our roster. I'm OK with putting Pedey 4th for a while, but I strongly feel it is important to keep the line-up long by keeping Nava (vs RHPs) and Snave/Gomes (vs LHPs) up 2nd. .. At least until they cool off.

     
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