Beckett 2011 bad luck with run support

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Beckett 2011 bad luck with run support

    Beckett is having an outstanding year with a 2.17 ERA, a .94 WHIP, and 17 Quality Starts in 22 games.  But he only has 9 wins to show for it.  There have been a lot of comments about the team's failure to score runs for him and it's no illusion, his run support has been lousy.  The Red Sox have scored only 3.44 runs per game for Beckett, compared to an overall average of 5.46 runs per game.  By comparison they've scored 6.28 runs per game for Lackey, which is a big reason why he has 10 wins in spite of having a 6.14 ERA and only 7 Quality Starts.

    Beckett's bad luck with run support seems to be just one of those fluky things that happens for no obvious reason.  The numbers from previous years show that his run support up until this year has been a little better than average.

    2006 5.05 (team average 5.06)
    2007 6.42 (team average 5.35)
    2008 4.88 (team average 5.22)
    2009 5.75 (team average 5.38)
    2010 4.99 (team average 5.05)

    Hopefully the law of averages will work in his favor a little bit the rest of the season.
       
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from newenglanderinexile. Show newenglanderinexile's posts

    Re: Beckett 2011 bad luck with run support

    I've noticed this too. In each of the last five or six games, it seems the Sox have scored one or no runs for him.  His record would be as good as Sabathia's if his team would hit a little for him.  How can this be explained? 
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from RonSwanson. Show RonSwanson's posts

    Re: Beckett 2011 bad luck with run support

    Baseball sure is a funny game is it not? Gotta feel kinda bad for Beckett, since he likely won't have much of a chance in the Cy Young voting with so few wins. Luckily Beckett doesn't seem bothered by his lack of run support.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from devildavid. Show devildavid's posts

    Re: Beckett 2011 bad luck with run support

    This just shows that wins for a pitcher is not a very meaningful number. As long as Beckett keeps pitching this way I'll be happy even if he doesn't get a lot of wins. Baseball scoring rules for assigning pitchers wins are not always a good measurement of a pitcher's true contribution to a victory.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Beckett 2011 bad luck with run support

    Beckett having less wins than John Lackey is a testament to Felix Hernandez winning a Cy Young with 13 victories. Bottom line, great starting pitcher has to be re-evaluated in today's game of pitch counts, specialists, etc. I think Beckett is having a Cy Young type season (Weaver will probably win) and if he had Roger Clemens' 1986 run support, he'd probably be 17-3
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Beckett 2011 bad luck with run support

    Take a look at Wake's 2008 season when he went 10-11.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Beckett 2011 bad luck with run support

    If this doesn't convince people that a pitcher's wins are a terrible stat by which to judge how effective a pitcher is, I don't know what will.

    If people are really caught up in 'wins' perhaps a better way to look at that would be the TEAM's winning % when each pitcher starts.

    In Beckett's starts, the team is 16-6.  (.727)

    In Lackey's starts, the team is 10-9.  (.526)

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from joyceand. Show joyceand's posts

    Re: Beckett 2011 bad luck with run support

    Yes, Beckett has had the misfortune of poor run support.  He's having an outstanding season but hat does the guy have to do to record a win?  He should be well above the 10 win mark; it must be very frustrating for him.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Beckett 2011 bad luck with run support

    Actually, I think back to when Steve Carlton won 27 games for a last place team, and then it boggles the mind. Talk about a pitcher who had every thing go his way. It was Carlton that season. Not that he didn't pitch a spectacular season, but that the Phillies somehow scored enough runs to ALLOW him to win 27 games. It's obvious they did nothing else for their other 3 or 4 starters.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Beckett 2011 bad luck with run support

    Maybe Beckett's personal catcher has something to do with this.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Beckett 2011 bad luck with run support

    The Phillies scored 4.1 runs per game for Steve Carlton in his victories, who had a ridiculously fantastic 0.993 WHIP. The team averaged 3.1 runs per game over the entire season and that means that since Steve pitched nearly 1/4th of their entire schedule, the team was averaging in the vicinity of 2.7 to 2.8 runs for the rest of the staff. The rest of the staff had terrible ERAs, terrible numbers too. But tell me how you can win at all averaging 2.8 or 2.7 runs per game unless you have an ERA of under 2...Carlton's was 1.97. He had 30 complete games, which is part of the reason he had more control over his games than pitchers have in today's game. Beckett goes 6 or 7 and it goes to the bullpen. It's a different era and just a far more difficult era now to win games as a SP. Too many other variables offset a guy who doesn't go 9 and determines his fate.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Beckett 2011 bad luck with run support

    Good.  He's the right guy to have to put up with this nonsense.  He's having a great year, and he has the attitude to go with it.  He keeps the Sox in games when the hitters are struggling.  He is, in George Wills's phrase, a working man. 
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Yukon-Cornelius. Show Yukon-Cornelius's posts

    Re: Beckett 2011 bad luck with run support

    In Response to Re: Beckett 2011 bad luck with run support:
    Good.  He's the right guy to have to put up with this nonsense.  He's having a great year, and he has the attitude to go with it.  He keeps the Sox in games when the hitters are struggling.  He is, in George Wills's phrase, a working man. 
    Posted by maxbialystock


    I like that description of Beckett - it fits him well.

    Yukon Cornelius
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: Beckett 2011 bad luck with run support

    You gotta love what Beckett's done for us this year!  Should be a Cy Young candidate, but with the overemphasis on Wins, He will most likely be left out of the conversation.  SAD!!!

    Lackey???  Thank God he's gone back to what has MADE his career!!!  LUCK!!!  :)
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: Beckett 2011 bad luck with run support

    p.s.  Having said that about Lackey.....  He is looking SO MUCH BETTER!!!  Good for him!  Good for us!!!!!!
     
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