Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years)

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years)

    Josh Beckett bashers love to use W-L record to disparage his pitching over the last two years. But all that shows is that they don't want to intelligently discuss his performance and just cherry-pick stats that paint the worst picture instead of looking deeper into the numbers.

    This isn't to excuse his bad starts. I'll be the first to say he didn't come through i the clutch in the last two starts of the year last season. And while he shoulder might have something to do with it, he has struggled this year since coming off the DL, although his last start was ecouraging.

    However, Beckett has had to earn every win he's gotten. The Sox, especially last year, are supposed to have a high-powered offense, yet he has never been bailed out of a poor start by getting a lot of offensive support.

    Here are his starts last year and this year where he got a ND or took a loss despite strong pitching.

    2011
    He got a no-decision in these games: 
    8.0 IP, 2 ER
    7.0 IP, 0 ER
    6.0 IP, 1 ER
    6.0 IP, 3 ER
    8.0 IP, 0 ER
    6.0 IP, 2 ER
    6.0 IP, 1 ER

    And he took the loss in these games
    7 IP, 3 ER
    6 IP, 2 ER

    So a 13-7 record could just as easily have been a 22-5 record or at least somewhere in between.

    And before you say he might have gotten a win in a game he pitched poorly, the only game that comes close is a win he got in a 7 IP, 4 ER game.

    2012
    He got a no-decision in these games.
    7 IP, 2 ER
    6 IP, 2 ER

    And he took looses in: 
    7 IP, 4 ER
    7 IP, 4 ER
    8 IP, 2 ER
    7 IP, 4 ER
    6.2 IP, 3 ER
    7 IP, 3 ER

    So while he's 5-9, with normal run support (Sox teams have been averaging 5.0-plus runs per game), he be as good as 13-3 or more reasonable, 11-5.

    So for all the posters who want to dump him, it's not exactly easy replacing that performance.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years)

    Wow!  What a waste of time putting this together. You should stay in the Realistic Look thread from now on. moonslobber likes to blame injuries, you two should be holding hands.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Brickbat. Show Brickbat's posts

    Re: Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years)

    Are you joking? To quote someone-or-other: "you are what your record says you are". The record says he's become a bum.
     
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  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years)

    C'mon. This is 2012, not 1986. Try to understand metrics, especially with pitching. Won lost record is MEANINGLESS! Beckett thru August last year was brilliant, and top 3 pitcher in the AL Statistics point out he still a very effective pitcher.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years)

    He was not brilliant. He was barely getting through six innings all summer and missed significant time due to the flu. 
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bill-806. Show Bill-806's posts

    Re: Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years)

      Please SPARE ME/US   !!!!!!!!
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Chilliwings. Show Chilliwings's posts

    Re: Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years)

    In Response to Re: Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years):
    [QUOTE]He was not brilliant. He was barely getting through six innings all summer and missed significant time due to the flu. 
    Posted by EnchiladaT[/QUOTE]


    He was brilliant in 2011.  To deny that just shows bias and/or revisionist history.  His WHIP was 1.026.  His ERA was 2.89.  He dominated the Rays and the Yanks.  He pitched very well in July, August and his first two start in September.

    "barely getting through 6 innings all summer" - That is demonstrably false!  he averaged more than 6.4 innings/start....way over the average....including 7/start in June, 7/start in July and 6.2 in August. Exactly how long do you think starting pitchers, even the best ones, pitch?

    "missed significant time due to the flu" - Again, demonstrably false....unless you're going to claim 2 starts is "significant time".
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from pri360. Show pri360's posts

    Re: Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years)

    In Response to Re: Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years):
    [QUOTE]C'mon. This is 2012, not 1986. Try to understand metrics, especially with pitching. Won lost record is MEANINGLESS! Beckett thru August last year was brilliant, and top 3 pitcher in the AL Statistics point out he still a very effective pitcher.
    Posted by rkarp[/QUOTE]
    What is the record in games that Becket has pitched this year? 6-11. Sabremetrics is not the be all and end all. Isn't that how the Sox got here in the first place. Taking a page out of the Billy Beane playbook?

    Mariners are going to hold on to King Felix until they are forced to trade him or they loose him to free agency while he's been little more than a .500 pitcher over the last two and half seasons. great metrics - but how does that help the team? Meanwhile they could ger 3 or 4 of the top prospects from almost any team and help themselves on offense.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from J-BAY. Show J-BAY's posts

    Re: Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years)

    In Response to Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years):
    [QUOTE]Josh Beckett bashers love to use W-L record to disparage his pitching over the last two years. But all that shows is that they don't want to intelligently discuss his performance and just cherry-pick stats that paint the worst picture instead of looking deeper into the numbers. This isn't to excuse his bad starts. I'll be the first to say he didn't come through i the clutch in the last two starts of the year last season. And while he shoulder might have something to do with it, he has struggled this year since coming off the DL, although his last start was ecouraging. However, Beckett has had to earn every win he's gotten. The Sox, especially last year, are supposed to have a high-powered offense, yet he has never been bailed out of a poor start by getting a lot of offensive support. Here are his starts last year and this year where he got a ND or took a loss despite strong pitching. 2011 He got a no-decision in these games:  8.0 IP, 2 ER 7.0 IP, 0 ER 6.0 IP, 1 ER 6.0 IP, 3 ER 8.0 IP, 0 ER 6.0 IP, 2 ER 6.0 IP, 1 ER And he took the loss in these games 7 IP, 3 ER 6 IP, 2 ER So a 13-7 record could just as easily have been a 22-5 record or at least somewhere in between. And before you say he might have gotten a win in a game he pitched poorly, the only game that comes close is a win he got in a 7 IP, 4 ER game. 2012 He got a no-decision in these games. 7 IP, 2 ER 6 IP, 2 ER And he took looses in:  7 IP, 4 ER 7 IP, 4 ER 8 IP, 2 ER 7 IP, 4 ER 6.2 IP, 3 ER 7 IP, 3 ER So while he's 5-9, with normal run support (Sox teams have been averaging 5.0-plus runs per game), he be as good as 13-3 or more reasonable, 11-5. So for all the posters who want to dump him, it's not exactly easy replacing that performance.
    Posted by royf19[/QUOTE]

    Thanks for the post, Roy. I dont want to dump Beckett, dont think they do or will. He was in the cy young discussion last year.ERA and W-L doesn tell the whole story. Proven pitching in the ALE is not easy to come by, especially playing in Boston. 

    From the outside looking in, everyones points the finger at Beckett, but it appears to be a bigger than one player. no one outside the organization knows what the internal issues are. It's up to them to figure and straightened it out. 

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from pri360. Show pri360's posts

    Re: Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years)

    In Response to Re: Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years):
    [QUOTE]Are you joking? To quote someone-or-other: "you are what your record says you are". The record says he's become a bum.
    Posted by Brickbat[/QUOTE]i think it was bill parcells. great quote!
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from BOSOX1941. Show BOSOX1941's posts

    Re: Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years)

    In Response to Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years):
    [QUOTE]Josh Beckett bashers love to use W-L record to disparage his pitching over the last two years. But all that shows is that they don't want to intelligently discuss his performance and just cherry-pick stats that paint the worst picture instead of looking deeper into the numbers. This isn't to excuse his bad starts. I'll be the first to say he didn't come through i the clutch in the last two starts of the year last season. And while he shoulder might have something to do with it, he has struggled this year since coming off the DL, although his last start was ecouraging. However, Beckett has had to earn every win he's gotten. The Sox, especially last year, are supposed to have a high-powered offense, yet he has never been bailed out of a poor start by getting a lot of offensive support. Here are his starts last year and this year where he got a ND or took a loss despite strong pitching. 2011 He got a no-decision in these games:  8.0 IP, 2 ER 7.0 IP, 0 ER 6.0 IP, 1 ER 6.0 IP, 3 ER 8.0 IP, 0 ER 6.0 IP, 2 ER 6.0 IP, 1 ER And he took the loss in these games 7 IP, 3 ER 6 IP, 2 ER So a 13-7 record could just as easily have been a 22-5 record or at least somewhere in between. And before you say he might have gotten a win in a game he pitched poorly, the only game that comes close is a win he got in a 7 IP, 4 ER game. 2012 He got a no-decision in these games. 7 IP, 2 ER 6 IP, 2 ER And he took looses in:  7 IP, 4 ER 7 IP, 4 ER 8 IP, 2 ER 7 IP, 4 ER 6.2 IP, 3 ER 7 IP, 3 ER So while he's 5-9, with normal run support (Sox teams have been averaging 5.0-plus runs per game), he be as good as 13-3 or more reasonable, 11-5. So for all the posters who want to dump him, it's not exactly easy replacing that performance.
    Posted by royf19[/QUOTE]

    Hopefully, his detractors will understand what you are saying here. Hopefully the opponent GMs won't see this. Excellent post. I'm in favor of keeping him.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Harpua710. Show Harpua710's posts

    Re: Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years)

    Is this a serious thread? IF they can trade him they should.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from J-BAY. Show J-BAY's posts

    Re: Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years)

    In Response to Re: Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years):
    [QUOTE]Is this a serious thread? IF they can trade him they should.
    Posted by Harpua710[/QUOTE]


    Seriously, I'm shocked the yankee fans think beckett should be traded...out of the ALE. SurprisedTongue Out
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years)

    In Response to Re: Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years):
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years) : He was brilliant in 2011.  To deny that just shows bias and/or revisionist history.  His WHIP was 1.026.  His ERA was 2.89.  He dominated the Rays and the Yanks.  He pitched very well in July, August and his first two start in September. "barely getting through 6 innings all summer" - That is demonstrably false!  he averaged more than 6.4 innings/start....way over the average....including 7/start in June, 7/start in July and 6.2 in August. Exactly how long do you think starting pitchers, even the best ones, pitch? "missed significant time due to the flu" - Again, demonstrably false....unless you're going to claim 2 starts is "significant time".
    Posted by Chilliwings[/QUOTE]


    As Curt Schilling said "use your eyes".... it was obvious Beckett was no super-star even in August 2011.

    If you give up 6 runs one start and then give up 0 the next I do not think that makes you necessarily a good pitcher. If you pitch 7 innings every other start but cannot get past the 5th inning the other starts then NO I ddon't think that makes you a good pitcher, no matter what the AVERAGES are.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from BostonTrollSpanker. Show BostonTrollSpanker's posts

    Re: Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years)

    " Hopefully, his detractors will understand what you are saying here. Hopefully the opponent GMs won't see this. Excellent post. I'm in favor of keeping him."

    Loved how Bobby V left Beckett in last start long enough to twist in the wind and blow the game. Hope you criticized him for that to the same extent you relentlessly bashed Francona...
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Harpua710. Show Harpua710's posts

    Re: Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years)

    J I LOVED the contract they gave him and HOPE he stays!!
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years)

    August 2nd thru the end of the year hardly stellar, I will admit July he was good. You want to click the link and tell me how great and invaluable he was from August 2nd 2011 until September 26th 2011?


    4 out of 6 starts in August he did not pitch more than 6 innings... blah blah blah


     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years)

    Beckett is not a bad pitcher.  If you want to look at the stats, his ERA is about the same as Bucholtz!!

    I just think people wanted to get rid of him cuz his big fat contract where people think he is suppose to pitch like an ACE.  

    If you are going to look at Garza, Edwin Jackson, Josh Johnson, etc, they are all making over 10 millions dollars.  Who do you rather have, one of these guys above or Beckett.  I am sure people would pick one of these guys above cuz it would save Boston five millions dollars a year.  But can they pitch in a tough city of Boston?   Probably not.  Beckett is pitching with his injured shoulder, and he kept finding a way to win the game for the team.

     
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  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from illinoisredsox. Show illinoisredsox's posts

    Re: Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years)

    roy's point is that Beckett has not been the total bum many of you are convinced he is.  But your myopic and abject hatred of the man, fueled by a media with an agenda, won't let you see that.

    Fact is W-L record is not nearly as indicative of success as it was 30-40 years ago when pitchers routinely went the distance and only came out for a pinch hitter or in a blow out.

    Give him the run support that Buchholz (until recently) and Doubront have gotten and his record is totally different.  Give those two the run support Beckett has received and you'd be screaming to get the bums out of the rotation
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years)

    Wrong again. We are talking about leadership, setting a high standard for ones self and the rest of the staff. Grade F.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years)

    In Response to Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years):
    [QUOTE]Josh Beckett bashers love to use W-L record to disparage his pitching over the last two years. But all that shows is that they don't want to intelligently discuss his performance and just cherry-pick stats that paint the worst picture instead of looking deeper into the numbers. This isn't to excuse his bad starts. I'll be the first to say he didn't come through i the clutch in the last two starts of the year last season. And while he shoulder might have something to do with it, he has struggled this year since coming off the DL, although his last start was ecouraging. However, Beckett has had to earn every win he's gotten. The Sox, especially last year, are supposed to have a high-powered offense, yet he has never been bailed out of a poor start by getting a lot of offensive support. Here are his starts last year and this year where he got a ND or took a loss despite strong pitching. 2011 He got a no-decision in these games:  8.0 IP, 2 ER 7.0 IP, 0 ER 6.0 IP, 1 ER 6.0 IP, 3 ER 8.0 IP, 0 ER 6.0 IP, 2 ER 6.0 IP, 1 ER And he took the loss in these games 7 IP, 3 ER 6 IP, 2 ER So a 13-7 record could just as easily have been a 22-5 record or at least somewhere in between. And before you say he might have gotten a win in a game he pitched poorly, the only game that comes close is a win he got in a 7 IP, 4 ER game. 2012 He got a no-decision in these games. 7 IP, 2 ER 6 IP, 2 ER And he took looses in:  7 IP, 4 ER 7 IP, 4 ER 8 IP, 2 ER 7 IP, 4 ER 6.2 IP, 3 ER 7 IP, 3 ER So while he's 5-9, with normal run support (Sox teams have been averaging 5.0-plus runs per game), he be as good as 13-3 or more reasonable, 11-5. So for all the posters who want to dump him, it's not exactly easy replacing that performance.
    Posted by royf19[/QUOTE]

    Good post Roy.   Beckett has not pitched up his potential, IMO, but he has pitched better than his W-L record and his ERA indicate.  W-L record for a pitcher is virtually meaningless in and of itself.

    I have been frustrated by many of his outings, but I have never been and still am not in favor of trading him.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years)

    sox need to get rid of him

    to move on from the ugliness

    that started last sept

    he is the
    ANTI mr intangible


    This opinion I can at least understand.  I don't agree with getting rid of him, but I do agree that he needs to show some more leadership and display some of those intangibles.


    24-22 in last 3 yrs no big loss



    This just has me shaking me head.  Have I taught you nothing?  
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years)

    In Response to Re: Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years):
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Beckett Can't Catch a Break (Or Why He Could be 35-8 Over The Last Two Years) :  Mariners are going to hold on to King Felix until they are forced to trade him or they loose him to free agency while he's been little more than a .500 pitcher over the last two and half seasons. great metrics -  Posted by pri360[/QUOTE]

    Maybe I am misunderstanding your post, but are you judging King Felix by his W-L record?
     
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