Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Camelwalk. Show Camelwalk's posts

    Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?

    In Response to Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?:
    [QUOTE]What makes you think he is not just as good. The Yankees were shopping the guy before this at the winter meetings. In Response to Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth? :
    Posted by AL34[/QUOTE]

    What makes YOU think he is as good and for whatever homer evidence you're gonna throw out, why does that trump the general consensus among major league scouts?
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from jb12bb. Show jb12bb's posts

    Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?

    As a RS fan to RS fans:

    Stop hating and do some research.  Montero will be that middle of the order bat with pop that the Mariners lack and will give them a player under control to market besides King Felix.

    Lavarnway will be a good major league hitter, but he probably cannot catch every day.  He is being brought along slowly and should be a big part of the RS future just as Iglesias, Middlebrooks and Kalish seem to be.

    The Yankees made a great move with long term potential.  Plus adding Kuroda gives them depth in the short term.  At some point the RS need to figure out what Cashman just did.  Stop over evaluating your own guys and go produce a winner.  Forget the luxury tax and go get the guys that give you the best chance of winning now.  This team is not getting any younger.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?

    I suspect that there is a reason why Baseball America ranked Jesus Montero No. 38, No. 4 and No. 3 in its Top 100 prospect lists in 2009, 2010 and 2011, respectively, while Ryan Lavernway, who is two-plus years older, has never  been ranked among the Top 100 prospects and this month cracked the Red Sox Top 10 prospect list for first time with a showing at No. 9:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=monter001jes

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2012/2612769.html

    Ryan Lavarnway may well provide the Red Sox a needed righthanded bat in the near future, but I doubt his value around baseball will approach Jesus Montero's anytime soon.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?

    In Response to Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?:
    [QUOTE]It makes me wonder why we were not looking into Pineda who is not a high salary guy ? I am surprised. Monterro is not projected to be a topline catcher so why not kick the tires on Pineda with Lavarney as bait. We never did.
    Posted by AL34[/QUOTE]

    Incorrect; check my post on Page 2. Now don't get me wrong, Lavarnway is a pleasant surprise and has phenom (albeit older) written all over him.
     
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    Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?

    In Response to Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth? : Incorrect; check my post on Page 2. Now don't get me wrong, Lavarnway is a pleasant surprise and has phenom (albeit older) written all over him.
    Posted by nhsteven[/QUOTE]
    Well why is it the Mariners didn't trade Pineda for Lavarnway?  Surely Lavarnway was enough to get that deal done.  Maybe the Mariners felt that Lavarnway was too good of a player and they couldn't in good conscience trade Pineda for Lavarnway as the Red Sox would not be getting back fair value in that deal?
     
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    Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?

    Everyone ganging up on poor AL. AL is wrong on all counts but why pile on. Show some mercy. Montero was considered to be better by all major league scouts, agents, owners, players, and the media and most fans than Lavarnway. Al is wrong. Start a new thread instead of bullying poor AL.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?

    In Response to Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?:
    [QUOTE]I suspect that there is a reason why Baseball America ranked Jesus Montero No. 38, No. 4 and No. 3 in its Top 100 prospect lists in 2009, 2010 and 2011, respectively, while Ryan Lavernway, who is two-plus years older, has never  been ranked among the Top 100 prospects and this month cracked the Red Sox Top 10 prospect list for first time with a showing at No. 9: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=monter001jes http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2012/2612769.html Ryan Lavarnway may well provide the Red Sox a needed righthanded bat in the near future, but I doubt his value around baseball will approach Jesus Montero's anytime soon.
    Posted by hill55[/QUOTE]

    I won't go so far as to predict that Lavarnway will have the better career, but I think the fact that Lavarnway has been snubbed by the scouts tells you that they were asleep at the wheel.   His .882 OPS in 2010 at age 22 should have been enough to open some eyes.  Scouts don't see everything, and you could use the same argument to suggest that Wil Myers (who has already been converted to the outfield), Gary Sanchez, Austin Romin, Travis D'Arneaud, etc will all have better careers than Lavarnway.  


     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Camelwalk. Show Camelwalk's posts

    Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?

    In Response to Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth? : I won't go so far as to predict that Lavarnway will have the better career, but I think the fact that Lavarnway has been snubbed by the scouts tells you that they were asleep at the wheel.   His .882 OPS in 2010 at age 22 should have been enough to open some eyes.  Scouts don't see everything, and you could use the same argument to suggest that Wil Myers (who has already been converted to the outfield), Gary Sanchez, Austin Romin, Travis D'Arneaud, etc will all have better careers than Lavarnway.  
    Posted by slomag[/QUOTE]

    Or maybe they judged him correctly.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?

    In Response to Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth? : Did you ever consider becoming a comedian?
    Posted by nhsteven[/QUOTE]

    Her might be right.  Lavarnway might be better than Montero.  Even the people who rank and judge prospects for a living will admit they are not always correct.

    Or to put it another way - what do Brad Wilkerson, Jack Cust, Corey Patterson, Jon Rauch, Ryan Anderson, Drew Henson, Hee Seop Choi, Matt Belisle, Felipe Lopez, JR House, Joe Borchard, Bud Smith, Joe Crede, Austin Kearns, Alfonso Soriano, Wilson Betemit, Juan Cruz, Antonio Perez,  Jerome Williams, and Sean Burroughs have in common?  All of them were among the 41 players baseballamerica.com had ranked ahead of Albert Pujols...
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?

    In Response to Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?:
    [QUOTE]It makes me wonder why we were not looking into Pineda who is not a high salary guy ? I am surprised. Monterro is not projected to be a topline catcher so why not kick the tires on Pineda with Lavarney as bait. We never did.
    Posted by AL34[/QUOTE]

    How do you know the Sox never asked if Pineda was available for Lavarnway?
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?

    In Response to Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?:
    [QUOTE]In response to "Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?": It's not 2 years. It's this year, and then next year you have to sign him( unlikely with Boras) or trade him( again unlikely as he will test the market) Based on that, how does he have value in a trade? Wasn't Grandy traded for Austin Jackson? I still contend based on what Montero returned, Lavarnway and his potential and cost control years has more value than Ellsbury. Ask yourself, do the Mariners trade Pineda straight up for Ellsbury? I would think not.
    Posted by rkarp[/QUOTE]

    2 years is 2 years. We have Ellsbury under control for 2 years and then he is worth potentially 2 picks.  What part of that is not clear?

    The Granderson trade netted Detroit Austin Jackson ( their starting CF ), Phil Coke ( possibly their best reliever ) and Max Scherzer ( one of their starters ). Granderson certainly panned out but NY gave up a lot for him also. Ellsbury should give up a similar return IMO. We would have to just pick the right trading partner.

    Do you think Philly might want him? I think so. A lot of teams would give their left nut for him.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?

    Look at these wRC+ numbers from Lavarnway. Consistently outstanding:

    2009 - 153
    2010 - 105
           - 145
           - 142
    2011 - 137
            - 171 ( AAA )
            - 97 ( mlb )

    For those of you who might not know what wRC+ is see:


    This guy is potentially a huge run producer. He gets on base and he drives guys in. He's a middle of the order stud potentially. And we have 6 years of control.


     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?

    Montero's wRC+ from his last 2 years in AAA:

    132
    120

    Montero did put up a 165 in his 69 PA at the end of last year though and he is younger. 

    I'm not saying Lavarnway is as good a prospect as the younger Montero but it's a lot closer than most people think IMO. It's not like Montero is any more likely to stick at catcher. If anything, Lavarnway has a better chance of sticking defensively IMO. 

    I know it's unconventional but I'd rather have 6 years of control right now of Lavarnway than I would Montero. No doubt Montero should be a huge bat but there is reason to think that Lavarnway will put up similar WAR values going forward. I like Lavarnway's trend lines and his demonstrated ability to adjust to every level efficiently. He even appears to be improving as he moves up each level.

    Something tells me most of you will disagree!
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?

    In Response to Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth? : How do you know the Sox never asked if Pineda was available for Lavarnway?
    Posted by notin[/QUOTE]
    Maybe the Sox turned them down!

    Great posts Notin!
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?

    The whole Lavarnway situation is just so complicated. I know most people think I'm misguided on this one. A guy can hit .370 in AAA ball and then tank in the majors but Lavarnway has improved his performance as he went up the ladder. He's still only 24. And BTW, do we KNOW that the Venezuelan Montero is 22?

    He probably is OK but it is just one of the tiny variables in this equation and there are many.

    To me it amounts to this....Virtually no one projected that Lavarnway would stick at catcher. No one saw any speed or athleticism. No quickness or flexibility. He got a bad rap with a ton of scouts and as with all of us, we generally don't like to admit it when we got it wrong. We will fight that with all the passion we possess ( Don't we. It's pretty clear on this forum daily ). No one wants to admit they got it wrong. Keith Law is probably still out there somewhere touting Lars Anderson as a great prospect. 

    I would contend that even some of the guys on Soxprospects have been in that mode for a long time but all Lavarnway has done since being signed is improve. Just maybe he is going to keep adjusting and keep improving and prove all those scouts wrong. It happens. Cases in point are thousands, as Notin so abtly noted!

    I KNOW conventional wisdom is that Montero is a much better prospect. I also would have difficulty fighting that headwind to pull the trigger on such a deal if evaluating both options. Everyone in baseball would say "I told you so" if Lavarnway doesn't work out. One of the keys is that Montero does certainly look like a very special bat waiting to happen but I also think he is almost definitely a DH and what is that WORTH when all other factors are considered. A mlb team can often pick up a great, proven DH for $7 or $8 mil. It's a factor I think NY has in mind. Montero was always projected to be traded IMO. Montero's hype was always bigger than his realistic projection.

    And I think Lavarnway has been consistently underated and still is IMO. The guy gets loft on the ball when he hits. I'm excited to see him in Fenway. I doubt they ever pitch him inside but he is so big he can probably pull a bunch of outside pitches as well. The guy is a moose! And he has shown the ability to still hit as he advances.

    I absolutely loved that AB when he hit his first mlb homer. In a very tense RISP  situation he was up and he controlled that AB, transferring all the pressure to the pitcher. Stepping out when the pressure peaked. And then knocking the ball out. He is still developing but sometimes he plays like a old pro slugger. Like an Ortiz would in a similar situation. The guy puts a lot of pressure on the opposing pitchers already.

    OK, I've said my piece. We can agree to disagree. Who knows how it turns out. None of us have a crystal ball.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?

    A strong case could be made that Lavarnway is actually our top prospect right now. I'm probably the only one in baseball ( if I were even considered to be "in baseball" ) who thinks that way.

    Just spar me the insults ok. It's my opinion. I'm not stupid...etc. I have good reasoning for my position. We can agree to disagree here without insults.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Camelwalk. Show Camelwalk's posts

    Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?

    In Response to Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth? : Maybe the Sox turned them down! Great posts Notin!
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    or maybe the Mariners turned the Sox down.

    Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?

    posted at 1/14/2012 1:07 PM EST
    Posts: 7826
    First: 9/23/2005
    Last: 1/14/2012
    EXcerpt from WEEI Report

    The Red Sox were interested in Kuroda, but because of organizational budgetary constraints, they weren't able to match the Yankees' offer without shedding payroll via another roster move. As for Pineda, a major league source suggested that the Red Sox didn't have a hitting prospect Seattle valued as much as Montero, saying it would have taken a lot more than just Ryan Lavarnway, whom some in baseball saw as an equal to Montero by September of last season.
     
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    Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?

    In Response to Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?:
    [QUOTE]In response to "Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?": I don't think the Sox will panic and I don't see the price for Garza going down, so I doubt he is an option at the moment. It's being reported that both the Yanks and Sox tried to get Hernandez, but Seattle wouldn't budge, so they both moved onto Pineda. The Mariners liked Montero more than anyone in Sox organization, so they chose Yankee deal. It's very difficult to convince a free agent hitter to go to Seattle, whereas a pitcher is much easier. That's why they made the move. Montero is ready to hit major league pitching, while Lavarnway needs to catch full-time Pawtucket. Those who think he is ready to be the starting catcher, well, its not an option. If it was, he'd be working with Gary Tuck this winter and he hasn't....
    Posted by jasko2248[/QUOTE]

    Agree with opening line.

    But Lava HAS been working on his catching skills ... as well as other areas, conditioning, speed, strength ... his time with Tuck is coming soon. 
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?

    In response to "Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?": [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth? : 2 years is 2 years. We have Ellsbury under control for 2 years and then he is worth potentially 2 picks.  What part of that is not clear? The Granderson trade netted Detroit Austin Jackson ( their starting CF ), Phil Coke ( possibly their best reliever ) and Max Scherzer ( one of their starters ). Granderson certainly panned out but NY gave up a lot for him also. Ellsbury should give up a similar return IMO. We would have to just pick the right trading partner. Do you think Philly might want him? I think so. A lot of teams would give their left nut for him. Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE] If a player is traded in the last year of his contract the trading team is unable to secure any picks as of the new CBA. So after this year, Ellsbury is traded and the team getting him will gat a partial season and risk him walking. Do you think that is value for the Sox trading partner? Coke had a 1.454 whip and pitched at replacement level. I don't think the Phil's have the dollars to take on another contract that Ellsbury will command I think any team, including the Sox haveEllsbury for one year, and then they have a 2nd panic year.
     
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    Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?

    In Response to Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?:
    [QUOTE]The whole Lavarnway situation is just so complicated. I know most people think I'm misguided on this one. A guy can hit .370 in AAA ball and then tank in the major. None of us have a crystal ball.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

      More people should pay attention to what Boomer says here...the belief that a guy will hit .370 in the minors and then tank while possible, isn't plausible. The minors will give you a good reflection of what type of player you have. Here are the Minor and MLB batting averages for the starters;
    CC   .294/.293
    Pedroia .307/.305
    AGon   .296/.293
    Sweeney .291/.283
    Youk    .298/.289
    Ells      .316/.301
    Papi     .310/.283
    Scut    .290/.270
    Salty    .271/.244
     Every player batted higher in the minors...but look at OPS, which you would think changes as the players get bigger and fill out...
    CC     .735/773
    Pedroia .844/.837
    AGon   .813/.889
    Sweeney .758/.720
    Youk    .882/.883
    Ells     .820/.807
    Papi    .916/.922
    Scut   .803/727
    Salty  .823/.712
     Only CC, AGon,Papi and Youk (by 1 point!) muscled up, It's surprising that Pedroia (an MVP!) was more offensive in the minors, given Ellsbury's youth he'll likely still improve over his minor league production, and as for Big Papi. his future was predicted by his past...Lavarnway will rake, it's in the numbers.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?

    In Response to Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth? : 2 years is 2 years. We have Ellsbury under control for 2 years and then he is worth potentially 2 picks.  What part of that is not clear? The Granderson trade netted Detroit Austin Jackson ( their starting CF ), Phil Coke ( possibly their best reliever ) and Max Scherzer ( one of their starters ). Granderson certainly panned out but NY gave up a lot for him also. Ellsbury should give up a similar return IMO. We would have to just pick the right trading partner. Do you think Philly might want him? I think so. A lot of teams would give their left nut for him.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    Thaqt trade was a lot more complicated than that. The Tigers also gave up Edwin Jackson in that deal. That's a fairly significant omission...
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?

    I'd prefer the Sox kept Lavarnway.

    I'd much rather deal Middlebrooks...

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?

    Hope Sox sign Oswalt to a year; hope they keep Middlebrooks (future 3B) and Lava (future C).
     
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    Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?

    In Response to Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth? : or maybe the Mariners turned the Sox down. Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth? posted at 1/14/2012 1:07 PM EST nhsteven Posts: 7826 First: 9/23/2005 Last: 1/14/2012 41a7054f2c80f3100a78ec587763e3ba EXcerpt from WEEI Report The Red Sox were interested in Kuroda, but because of organizational budgetary constraints, they weren't able to match the Yankees' offer without shedding payroll via another roster move. As for Pineda, a major league source suggested that the Red Sox didn't have a hitting prospect Seattle valued as much as Montero, saying it would have taken a lot more than just Ryan Lavarnway, whom some in baseball saw as an equal to Montero by September of last season.
    Posted by Camelwalk[/QUOTE]

    The salient part is they cited one "major league source". Was that you Steven? Maybe it was the clubhouse guy in Tampa or Bowden who appears to have an opinion about everything. What does an unnamed "major league source" prove?
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?

    In Response to Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Begs the question what is Lavarnway worth? : Thaqt trade was a lot more complicated than that. The Tigers also gave up Edwin Jackson in that deal. That's a fairly significant omission...
    Posted by notin[/QUOTE]
    I agree. My bad.
     

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