In response to Joebreidey's comment:
In response to tom-uk's comment:
In response to hill55's comment:
Arizona might not have signed Cody Ross if the signing had cost the Diamondbacks their No. 15 pick in the June 2013 draft.
The compensation pick would in the sandwich round.
I agree about Arizona but it is irrelevant to the Sox. Ross would've made his decision knowing the comp pick problem. His contract is right in the middle of the Willingham and Cuddyer deals, as their FA year WARs indicated. Given the up and down nature of Ross's career, I doubt he would have turned down the chance of a 3 year deal in the $21M to $26M range.
After all his poor 2011 ( 1.0 WAR) cost him dearly. If he took the Sox offer and slumped (maybe if he didn't) he could've been platooned with Kalish and seen his 2013 off-season value plumet. A leftie smasher might only get 200 to 250 ABs.
The Fenway factor is largely a myth in boosting a RHH:
Arizona is more homer friendly for RHH tradionally, and Fenway is more singles and doubles (higher BABIP) friendly.
"Ross might therefore see a slight decline in overall offensive performance." Mike Podhorzer
It wouldn't make sense to gamble on a $21M/3 contract. The marginal gain is $7.7M/2, more than a one-year deal for $13.3M. The downside is that he gets hurt and loses $7.7M. The upside is that he is healthy and gets the same offer next year.
I think it is telling that only 9 players got qualifying offers. Napoli is clearly a better ballplayer. Hunter and martin are better players. Pagan is better. There is no way to make a case for those guys not getting offers, and the $3M Ross getting one.
Not only does the team who signs a player with draft pick comensation lose their pick, but they lose that $$ slotted for that pick.