Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to tom-uk's comment:

    In response to hill55's comment:

    Arizona might not have signed Cody Ross if the signing had cost the Diamondbacks their No. 15 pick in the June 2013 draft.

    The compensation pick would in the sandwich round.



    I agree about Arizona but it is irrelevant to the Sox.  Ross would've made his decision knowing the comp pick problem.   His contract is right in the middle of the Willingham and Cuddyer deals, as their FA year WARs indicated.   Given the up and down nature of Ross's career, I doubt he would have turned down the chance of a 3 year deal in the $21M to $26M range.

    After all his poor 2011 ( 1.0 WAR) cost him dearly.  If he took the Sox offer and slumped (maybe if he didn't) he could've been platooned with Kalish and seen his 2013 off-season value plumet.  A leftie smasher might only get 200 to 250 ABs.

    The Fenway factor is largely a myth in boosting a RHH:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/cody-ross-heads-west/

    Arizona is more homer friendly for RHH tradionally, and Fenway is more singles and doubles (higher BABIP) friendly.

    "Ross might therefore see a slight decline in overall offensive performance." Mike Podhorzer

     



    It wouldn't make sense to gamble on a $21M/3 contract.  The marginal gain is $7.7M/2, more than a one-year deal for $13.3M.  The downside is that he gets hurt and loses $7.7M.  The upside is that he is healthy and gets the same offer next year.

    I think it is telling that only 9 players got qualifying offers.  Napoli is clearly a better ballplayer.  Hunter and martin are better players.  Pagan is better.  There is no way to make a case for those guys not getting offers, and the $3M Ross getting one.



    Not only does the team who signs a player with draft pick comensation lose their pick, but they lose that $$ slotted for that pick.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    In response to carnie's comment:

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:

    I have Dumpster and S. Drew and Shane right, too. I have them all right.




    You're wrong a lot more often than you're right. Dempster will likely pitch 200 innings of a little better than .500 baseball. Drew will give the Sox a better SS than Iglesias would this year. Victorino will give the Sox about the same offensive production as a healthy Ellsbury, with the added plus that he can actually, you know, throw the baseball.




    Gomes was the right call, Dempster will be better than some think. Drew was a smart move. Didnt like the $$, but Iggy needs another year and at 23 hes still got plenty of time. Victorino can play GG for any OF spot and is insurance in case Ells goes down, gets traded or JBJ isnt ready come 2014.

    All good moves by Ben C...And its not over yet.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    Ross is a good complimentary player. So in the big picture as we continue to retool the club it makes little sense to tie up the resources and a roster spot for a player who's top end is that of a .270 20 homer guy, that's not exactly Dewey Evans with the leather. Many of you have already made the case for why they didn't chose to give him a qualifing offer. It's right there in front of you, if for example his left right splits were both in the 800 level...They'd have already re-signed him and it would have cost more than what he signed for with the d-backs. When you also factor in his defense...There's a reason the guy has bounced around and why he signed a 3Y/26M dollar contract and a guy like Swisher got 4/54.

    Looking at our current outfield which consists of Ells (CF), Victorino (RF) with Nava or Kalish platooniong in left with Gomes (who we signed to replace Ross's bat off the bench). If we carry 5 outfielders Kalish is the guy they'll call on to give Ells and Victorino a blow and man RF & CF with Gomes playing exclusively in left vs lefthanded pitching likely platoonig with Nava.

    If we look a little deeper, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that there's another move in the makings. Could be this year or next with Ellsbury likely to play out his contract and move on. I seen nothing that leads me to believe otherwise. Hence the signing of Victorino...Gomes is a back-up 4th OFer and the best part about him is that he accepts that role and is signed to short moneys. Giving Cherington some flexibility to find a longer term corner outfielder one with an impact bat. My guess is that unless traded for another piece, that Kalish is seen as the everyday RF with Victorino holding down CF until Bradley JR arrives sometime in 2014. Leaving them a roster spot to find a big bat that plays LF, unlike RF in Fenway, a position where the bat outwieghs the glove...

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:

    I have Dumpster and S. Drew and Shane right, too. I have them all right.



    Maybe you do, maybe you don't.  It would be interesting if you go on record before the season starts with your view stated and recorded on all the new players so we can all review in October.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    The Fenway factor is largely a myth in boosting a RHH:

    A myth can't be "largely a myth". It's either a myth, or it's not.

    2012  C. Ross splits  Home  BA  .298  OBP  .356  SLG  .565  OPS .921

    2012                          Away BA  .232   OBP  .294  SLG ..390  OPS .684

    Doesn't look like much of a myth to me. SLG .565 Home and an embarrassing .390 Away

     

    SAMPLE SIZE ALERT

    Park factors tell us that for a RH pull hitter Fens tradionally takes away HR and increases doubles and singles when compared to the average of all MLB parks.  Arizona is more friendly for HR for a RH pull hitter, but less friendly for doubles and singles than an average park (and Fenway).  The offensive advantage for Ross playing at Fenway over Arizona is only slight.

    Defensively, Ross will find Arizona easier in the field than RF at Fens.

    With O and D considered as Ross plays into his mid 30s and loses range, Boston vs Arizona is a wash.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    In response to tom-uk's comment:

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:

    The Fenway factor is largely a myth in boosting a RHH:

    A myth can't be "largely a myth". It's either a myth, or it's not.

    2012  C. Ross splits  Home  BA  .298  OBP  .356  SLG  .565  OPS .921

    2012                          Away BA  .232   OBP  .294  SLG ..390  OPS .684

    Doesn't look like much of a myth to me. SLG .565 Home and an embarrassing .390 Away

     

    SAMPLE SIZE ALERT

    Park factors tell us that for a RH pull hitter Fens tradionally takes away HR and increases doubles and singles when compared to the average of all MLB parks.  Arizona is more friendly for HR for a RH pull hitter, but less friendly for doubles and singles than an average park (and Fenway).  The offensive advantage for Ross playing at Fenway over Arizona is only slight.

    Defensively, Ross will find Arizona easier in the field than RF at Fens.

    With O and D considered as Ross plays into his mid 30s and loses range, Boston vs Arizona is a wash.



    The two fields are a wash, but that doesn't figure into the value calculation.  If Ross didn't play at Fenway last year, he'd be getting less than half of what he is going to get.  In the past 3 seasons, his road OPS is well under .700.

    He is also not a full-time player, though not strictly platoon.

    As Halifax pointed out, as long as AZ plays him only at home, and only against lefties, he is okay.  Some contracts take a bit of time to turn south, like Pujols. ARod and Tex.  Some are DOA, like Zito.  IMHO, Ross is a DOA contract.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    The two fields are a wash, but that doesn't figure into the value calculation.  If Ross didn't play at Fenway last year, he'd be getting less than half of what he is going to get.  

     

    That is only true if he played in about one of the ten or so parks that are hard on RHH.

     The following chart shows that for HR Chase Field is better for Ross, overall for offense the difference is only slight between the two parks.  If Ross had played for Cardinals, Pirates, or Mets his value would probably lowered, but not if he played for the Diamondbacks.

     

     http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/kevin-youkilis-trade-white-sox/

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/image0011.png

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    The following chart shows that for HR Chase Field is better for Ross, overall for offense the difference is only slight between the two parks.  If Ross had played for Cardinals, Pirates, or Mets his value would probably lowered, but not if he played for the Diamondbacks.

    But my point is not a comparison between the two parks.  The point is that you can't judge a player by looking at stats without taking into consideration the park he plays in.  AZ will exagerrate Ross' stats, but they will do that for every player.  It's like the folks in here wanting to trade for all the Rockies' players simply because they have crazy home stats.

    The true Ross is the one with the < .700 road OPS the past three seasons.  Ross is likely the same player as he was in SF in 2011 and FL in 2010.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    In response to tom-uk's comment:

    http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20121222-no-compensation-for-sox-after-ross-walks.ece

    1. Ross takes the offer.  (Ells in CF, Ross in RF) Which makes more sense, Victorino for three years or one year of Ross for the same price for 2013? 

    or

    2. If Ross turned down the offer, the Sox would have received a back half of 1st round compensation pick plus the extra $1M or so MLB-permitted signing bonus pool that comes with it.  Trade Ells sign Victorino.  ( SV in CF,  Kalish in RF, plus pick and $1M)

    or

    3. Ross takes the offer, SV is signed to play CF, and Ells is traded. (SV in CF, CR in RF)

    or

    4.  Ross takes offer,  (CR in LF, JE in CF,  SV in RF).

    My guess is Ross would have walked and a win - win was available, but Ben missed it.

    At the moment:  SV in RF, JE in CF, and no pick.

     

     




    Zero chance Ross turns down 1 year at $13.3mill.  Especially one year at Fenway...

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    Zero chance Ross turns down 1 year at $13.3mill.  

    Ross himself said:

    "At first I thought no, but the closer it got to the deadline I thought it was possible," said Ross when asked if he believed there was a chance the Red Sox would submit the qualifying offer. "Obviously, when it passed they didn't offer, which is actually a good thing for me because now I don't have the draft pick attached to me as a free agent. Some guys have similar numbers and similar sort of careers and got qualifying offers, so teams will have to be willing to give up a draft pick to sign them, which they don't like doing. I think it benefits me. I wasn't upset about it."  http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2012/11/04/cody-ross-red-sox-had-a-ton-of-opportunities-to-get-deal-done/

     

     

    Especially one year at Fenway...

     


    Chase and Fenway are a wash for Ross.

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    In response to tom-uk's comment:

    Zero chance Ross turns down 1 year at $13.3mill.  

    Ross himself said:

    "At first I thought no, but the closer it got to the deadline I thought it was possible," said Ross when asked if he believed there was a chance the Red Sox would submit the qualifying offer. "Obviously, when it passed they didn't offer, which is actually a good thing for me because now I don't have the draft pick attached to me as a free agent. Some guys have similar numbers and similar sort of careers and got qualifying offers, so teams will have to be willing to give up a draft pick to sign them, which they don't like doing. I think it benefits me. I wasn't upset about it."  http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2012/11/04/cody-ross-red-sox-had-a-ton-of-opportunities-to-get-deal-done/

     

     

    Especially one year at Fenway...

     


    Chase and Fenway are a wash for Ross.

     

     

    not exactly relevant to his qualifying offer.

     

    Had Ross received a qualifying offer, he would have received one half of the money for his current deal over one third of the years.  and had the opportunity to put up decent numbers the second year in a row by virute of playing in Fenway, potentially positioning himself for a better contract for 2014.... 

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    not exactly relevant to his qualifying offer.

     

    Had Ross received a qualifying offer, he would have received one half of the money for his current deal over one third of the years.  and had the opportunity to put up decent numbers the second year in a row by virute of playing in Fenway, potentially positioning himself for a better contract for 2014.... 

    [/QUOTE]

    Notin says, "zero chance"

    Ross says, "which is actually a good thing for me because now I don't have the draft pick attached to me as a free agent."

    hmm who would know better?

    Like the old saying goes, it takes a big man to admit he is wrong.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    Here's something I've been wondering about.


    I remember Ross getting some badly needed walk-off hits last season. We really needed them, considering our record in extra innings and one-run games.


    Has anyone tallied up his walk-off hits and compared them to other hitters on the staff?


    Sort of wondering how he did in comparision, and what you guys think a "won the game" hit is worth ...

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    In response to lasitter's comment:

    Here's something I've been wondering about.


    I remember Ross getting some badly needed walk-off hits last season. We really needed them, considering our record in extra innings and one-run games.


    Has anyone tallied up his walk-off hits and compared them to other hitters on the staff?


    Sort of wondering how he did in comparision, and what you guys think a "won the game" hit is worth ...




    salty had a decent amount of clutch hits too. thats the guy who you'd compare ross to in that category. but its hard to compare those stats for 2012 on account of the entire team landing on the DL and no one getting consistent playing time

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    In response to lasitter's comment:

    Here's something I've been wondering about.


    I remember Ross getting some badly needed walk-off hits last season. We really needed them, considering our record in extra innings and one-run games.


    Has anyone tallied up his walk-off hits and compared them to other hitters on the staff?


    Sort of wondering how he did in comparision, and what you guys think a "won the game" hit is worth ...



    I don't think that's a repeatable skill.  I think there are a very few select players with the ability to bear down in the clutch.  Manny, Schilling, Reggie Jackson come to mind.  He was 51-75 in starts.  Our record without Ross starting was 23-13.  .768 in late & close, .718 in the 9th, 0-7 in extra innings.

     
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  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    In response to tom-uk's comment:

    not exactly relevant to his qualifying offer.

     

    Had Ross received a qualifying offer, he would have received one half of the money for his current deal over one third of the years.  and had the opportunity to put up decent numbers the second year in a row by virute of playing in Fenway, potentially positioning himself for a better contract for 2014.... 



    Notin says, "zero chance"

    Ross says, "which is actually a good thing for me because now I don't have the draft pick attached to me as a free agent."

    hmm who would know better?

    Like the old saying goes, it takes a big man to admit he is wrong.



    Your reply makes no sense. If thr Sox offered Ross a quslifying offer he would have the attached draft pick compensation if he turned it down. Whst workef out for Ross was not getting a qualifying offer in the first place.  Ypu know, the hypothetical situation opposite to whst happened.

 
  • You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    I read somewhere that the draft pick compensation attached to LaRoche is really handicapping his market value.  LaRoche is a consistent hitter who can defend his position very well.  I would imagine that if teams are hesitant to forfeit a draft pick for LaRoche, it would be even worse for Ross.

     
  • You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    Offering nearly $13M for C Ross would have been total insanity.

    His best position is DH vs LHPs and the bench vs RHPs. How is that close to worth $13M? (And I was a top supporter of his signing last winter.)

     
  • You have chosen to ignore posts from trouts. Show trouts's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    I don't know why we're quibbling about the signing or non-signing of another mediocre outfielder, when SF has shown that it's almost all about pitching and a little bit of timely hitting.

     
  • You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    the real question mark is Victorino worth more than 5 million more than Ross a year x3? look at ther stats last year and tell me who was the better player.....

    gomes is insurance - i understand that....but seems like an unnecessary gamble imo letting cody walk and getting shane for 3/39

     
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